Mid-Holocene climate variations recorded by palaeolake in marginal area of east Asian monsoon: A multi-proxy study

IEECAS SKLLQG

Vegetation and climate variations at Taibai, Qinling Mountains in central China for the last 3 500 cal BP

IEECAS SKLLQG

Responses of summertime extreme wave heights to local climate variations in the East China Sea

We detected the responses of summertime extreme wave heights (H-top10, average of the highest 10% of significant wave heights in June, July and August) to local climate variations in the East China Sea by applying an empirical orthogonal function analysis to Htop10 derived from the WAVEWATCH- III wave model driven by 6 hourly sea surface wind fields from ERA-40 reanalysis over the period 1958-2002. Decreases in H-top10 in the northern East China Sea ( Yellow Sea) correspond to attenuation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, while increases in the south are primarily due to enhancement of tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

The anatomy of Last Glacial Maximum climate variations in south Westland, New Zealand, derived from pollen records

We present pollen records from three sites in south Westland, New Zealand, that document past vegetation and inferred climate change between approximately 30,000 and 15,000 cal. yr BP. Detailed radiocarbon dating of the enclosing sediments at one of those sites, Galway tarn, provides a more robust chronology for the structure and timing of climate-induced vegetation change than has previously been possible in this region. The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key isochronous marker, affords a precise stratigraphic link across all three pollen records, while other tie points are provided by key pollen-stratigraphic changes which appear to be synchronous across all three sites. Collectively, the records show three episodes in which grassland, interpreted as indicating mostly cold subalpine to alpine conditions, was prevalent in lowland south Westland, separated by phases dominated by subalpine shrubs and montane-lowland trees, indicating milder interstadial conditions. Dating, expressed as a Bayesian-estimated single 'best' age followed in parentheses by younger/older bounds of the 95% confidence modelled age range, indicates that a cold stadial episode, whose onset was marked by replacement of woodland by grassland, occurred between 28,730 (29,390-28,500) and 25,470 (26,090-25,270) cal. yr BP (years before AD, 1950), prior to the deposition of the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra. Milder interstadial conditions prevailed between 25,470 (26,090-25,270) and 24,400 (24,840-24,120) cal. yr BP and between 22,630 (22,930-22,340) and 21,980 (22,210-21,580) cal. yr BP, separated by a return to cold stadial conditions between 24,400 and 22,630 cal. yr BP. A final episode of grass-dominated vegetation, indicating cold stadial conditions, occurred from 21,980 (22,210-21,580) to 18,490 (18,670-17,950) cal. yr BP. The decline in grass pollen, indicating progressive climate amelioration, was well advanced by 17,370 (17,730-17,110) cal. yr BP, indicating that the onset of the termination in south Westland occurred sometime between ca 18,490 and ca 17,370 cal. yr BP. A similar general pattern of stadials and interstadials is seen, to varying degrees of resolution but generally with lesser chronological control, in many other paleoclimate proxy records from the New Zealand region. This highly resolved chronology of vegetation changes from southwestern New Zealand contributes to the examination of past climate variations in the southwest Pacific region. The stadial and interstadial episodes defined by south Westland pollen records represent notable climate variability during the latter part of the Last Glaciation. Similar climatic patterns recorded farther afield, for example from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, imply that climate variations during the latter part of the Last Glaciation and the transition to the Holocene interglacial were inter-regionally extensive in the Southern Hemisphere and thus important to understand in detail and to place into a global context. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Observed climate variations and change in Vietnam

In this study, observed changes of temperature, rainfall, and some extreme climate indices in Vietnam were investigated by using daily observations during the period 1961-2012. The observed data were collected from 80 meteorological stations for temperature, and from 170 stations for rainfall over the seven climatological sub-regions of Vietnam. Results show that there were insignificant differences between the trends of changes obtained from the 1961-2011 and 1979-2012 periods. Near-surface temperature, including mean (T2m), maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tm), increased consistently at almost all stations. Tm increased faster than Tx. Temperature also increased faster in winter than in summer. Consequently, the number of hot days and warm nights increased whereas the number of cold days, cold nights and cool days decreased. In the northern regions, temperature tended to slightly decrease in May but significantly increased in June. Annual rainfall decreased in the northern area of Vietnam, while it increased at almost all stations in the central regions, and had insignificant trends in the southern sub-region. Changes in some extreme rainfall indices were likely consistent with changes in annual rainfall. Monthly rainfall in the central regions significantly increased from August to December. Rainfall generally increased in May and decreased in June over almost all country.

The response of atmospheric nitrous oxide to climate variations during the last glacial period

Detailed insight into natural variations of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in response to changes in the Earth's climate system is provided by new measurements along the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). The presented record reaches from the early Holocene back into the previous interglacial with a mean time resolution of about 75 years. Between 11 and 120 kyr BP, atmospheric N2O concentrations react substantially to the last glacial-interglacial transition (Termination 1) and millennial time scale climate variations of the last glacial period. For long-lasting Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, the N2O increase precedes Greenland temperature change by several hundred years with an increase rate of about 0.8-1.3 ppbv/century, which accelerates to about 3.8-10.7 ppbv/century at the time of the rapid warming in Greenland. Within each bundle of DO events, the new record further reveals particularly low N2O concentrations at the approximate time of Heinrich events. This suggests that the response of marine and/or terrestrial N2O emissions on a global scale are different for stadials with and without Heinrich events.

Climate variability, climate change and land degradation

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

Understanding past climate variation and environmental change for the future of an iconic landscape – K'gari Fraser Island, Queensland, Australia

The unique combination of landscapes and processes that are present and operate on Fraser Island (K'gari) create a dynamic setting that is capable of recording past environmental events, climate variations and former landscapes. Likewise, its geographic position makes Fraser Island sensitive to those events and processes. Based on optically stimulated luminescence dating, the records archived within the world's largest sand island span a period that has the potential to exceed 750 ka and contain specific records that are of extremely high resolution over the past 40,000 years. This is due to the geographic position of Fraser Island, which lies in the coastal subtropical region of Queensland Australia. Fraser Island is exposed to the open ocean currents of the Coral Sea on the east coast and the waters of Hervey Bay on its western margin and is positioned to receive moisture from the Indo-Australian monsoon, southeast trade winds and experiences occasional tropical and ex-tropical cyclones. We review literature that presents the current level of understanding of sea level change, ecological variation and environmental change on Fraser Island. The previous works illustrate the importance of Fraser Island and may link processes, environments and climates on Fraser Island with global records.