O monitoramento climático e o alerta de desastres naturais na era da comunicação digital

This article presents considerations concerning the interaction between communication and digital platforms and applications developed to perform computerized climate monitoring and issue alerts about natural disasters. From work in the Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Alert (CIADEN), which processes meteorological data provided by Platform Monitoring, Analysis and Warning TerraMA2 designed by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) to conduct monitoring and fi ring warning about climate risk environment, we propose the expansion of interactivity with the various possibilities of digital communication available today for signifi cant portion of society. On another front, the CIADEN has articulated teaching and research on climate monitoring and warning of natural disasters, weather, and geoprocessing environment, involving teachers and students both in school and in higher and technical.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the PICES 2002 Volunteer Observing Ship Workshop.

On April 4-5, 2002, the PICES MONITOR Task Team, the PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Advisory Panel, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council’s Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program convened a workshop in Seattle, U.S.A., to consider enhanced instrumentation for volunteer observing ships (VOS), particularly instruments to complement CPR data. (PDF contains 44 pages)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program On Climate Change And Carrying Capacity: Report of the 2000 BASS, MODEL, MONITOR and REX workshops, and the 2001 BASS/MODEL workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.05 Mb] Report of the 2000 BASS Workshop on The Development of a conceptual model of the Subarctic Pacific basin ecosystems [pdf, 0.71 Mb] Report of the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Strategies for coupling higher and lower trophic level marine ecosystem models [pdf, 3.62 Mb] Report of the 2000 MONITOR Workshop on Progress in monitoring the North Pacific [pdf, 1.21 Mb] Report of the 2000 REX Workshop on Trends in herring populations and trophodynamics [pdf, 4.22 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop on Higher trophic level modeling [pdf, 0.29 Mb] (Document pdf contains 119 pages)

Real-time climate monitoring using an AVHRR-based vegetation index

A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been produced and archived on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid between 55°S and 75°N. The many sources of data errors in the NDVI include cloud contamination, scan angle biases, changes in solar zenith angle, and sensor degradation. Week-to-week variability, primarily caused by cloud contamination and scan angle biases, can be minimized by temporally filtering the data. Orbital drift and sensor degradation introduces interannual variability into the dataset. These trends make the usefulness of a long-term climatology uncertain and limit the usefulness of the NDVI. Elimination of these problems should produce an index that can be used for climate monitoring.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO sub(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

GNSS occultation sounding for climate monitoring

Considerable efforts are currently invested into the setup of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) for monitoring climate change over the coming decades, which is of high relevance given concerns on increasing human influences. A promising potential contribution to the GCOS is a suite of spaceborne Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) occultation sensors for global long-term monitoring of atmospheric change in temperature and other variables with high vertical resolution and accuracy. Besides the great importance with respect to climate change, the provision of high quality data is essential for the improvement of numerical weather prediction and for reanalysis efforts. We review the significance of GNSS radio occultation sounding in the climate observations context. In order to investigate the climate change detection capability of GNSS occultation sensors, we are currently performing an end-to-end GNSS occultation observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025. We report on this integrated analysis, which involves in a realistic manner all aspects from modeling the atmosphere via generating a significant set of stimulated measurements to an objective statistical analysis and assessment of 2001–2025 temporal trends.

Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya

This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.

Deforestation and forest degradation monitoring and assessment of biomass and carbon stock of lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region, Madagascar

Madagascar is currently developing a policy and strategies to enhance the sustainable management of its natural resources, encouraged by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and REDD. To set up a sustainable financing scheme methodologies have to be provided that estimate, prevent and mitigate leakage, develop national and regional baselines, and estimate carbon benefits. With this research study this challenge was tried to be addressed by analysing a lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo, North East of Madagascar. For two distinguished forest degradation stages: “low degraded forest” and “degraded forest” aboveground biomass and carbon stock was assessed. The corresponding rates of carbon within those two classes were calculated and linked to a multi-temporal set of SPOT satellite data acquired in 1991, 2004 and 2009. Deforestation and particularly degradation and the related carbon stock developments were analysed. With the assessed data for the 3 years 1991, 2004 and 2009 it was possible to model a baseline and to develop a forest prediction for 2020 for Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo. These results, developed applying robust methods, may provide important spatial information regarding the priorities in planning and implementation of future REDD+ activities in the area.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.