Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

The Political Economy of Climate Adaptation and Environmental Health: The Case of Ethiopia

The environment affects our health, livelihoods, and the social and political institutions within which we interact. Indeed, nearly a quarter of the global disease burden is attributed to environmental factors, and many of these factors are exacerbated by global climate change. Thus, the central research question of this dissertation is: How do people cope with and adapt to uncertainty, complexity, and change of environmental and health conditions? Specifically, I ask how institutional factors, risk aversion, and behaviors affect environmental health outcomes. I further assess the role of social capital in climate adaptation, and specifically compare individual and collective adaptation. I then analyze how policy develops accounting for both adaptation to the effects of climate and mitigation of climate-changing emissions. In order to empirically test the relationships between these variables at multiple levels, I combine multiple methods, including semi-structured interviews, surveys, and field experiments, along with health and water quality data. This dissertation uses the case of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, which has a large rural population and is considered very vulnerable to climate change. My fieldwork included interviews and institutional data collection at the national level, and a three-year study (2012-2014) of approximately 400 households in 20 villages in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. I evaluate the theoretical relationships between households, communities, and government in the process of adaptation to environmental stresses. Through my analyses, I demonstrate that water source choice varies by individual risk aversion and institutional context, which ultimately has implications for environmental health outcomes. I show that qualitative measures of trust predict cooperation in adaptation, consistent with social capital theory, but that measures of trust are negatively related with private adaptation by the individual. Finally, I describe how Ethiopia had some unique characteristics, significantly reinforced by international actors, that led to the development of an extensive climate policy, and yet with some challenges remaining for implementation. These results suggest a potential for adaptation through the interactions among individuals, communities, and government in the search for transformative processes when confronting environmental threats and climate change.

Greenlandic Inuit show genetic signatures of diet and climate adaptation

The indigenous people of Greenland, the Inuit, have lived for a long time in the extreme conditions of the Arctic, including low annual temperatures, and with a specialized diet rich in protein and fatty acids, particularly omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). A scan of Inuit genomes for signatures of adaptation revealed signals at several loci, with the strongest signal located in a cluster of fatty acid desaturases that determine PUFA levels. The selected alleles are associated with multiple metabolic and anthropometric phenotypes and have large effect sizes for weight and height, with the effect on height replicated in Europeans. By analyzing membrane lipids, we found that the selected alleles modulate fatty acid composition, which may affect the regulation of growth hormones. Thus, the Inuit have genetic and physiological adaptations to a diet rich in PUFAs.

Use of business analysis in beef businesses to direct management practice change for climate adaptation outcomes

Beef businesses in northern Australia are facing increased pressure to be productive and profitable with challenges such as climate variability and poor financial performance over the past decade. Declining terms of trade, limited recent gains in on-farm productivity, low profit margins under current management systems and current climatic conditions will leave little capacity for businesses to absorb climate change-induced losses. In order to generate a whole-of-business focus towards management change, the Climate Clever Beef project in the Maranoa-Balonne region of Queensland trialled the use of business analysis with beef producers to improve financial literacy, provide a greater understanding of current business performance and initiate changes to current management practices. Demonstration properties were engaged and a systematic approach was used to assess current business performance, evaluate impacts of management changes on the business and to trial practices and promote successful outcomes to the wider industry. Focus was concentrated on improving financial literacy skills, understanding the business’ key performance indicators and modifying practices to improve both business productivity and profitability. To best achieve the desired outcomes, several extension models were employed: the ‘group facilitation/empowerment model’, the ‘individual consultant/mentor model’ and the ‘technology development model’. Providing producers with a whole-of-business approach and using business analysis in conjunction with on-farm trials and various extension methods proved to be a successful way to encourage producers in the region to adopt new practices into their business, in the areas of greatest impact. The areas targeted for development within businesses generally led to improvements in animal performance and grazing land management further improving the prospects for climate resilience.

The Economics of Climate Adaptation on America’s Coasts: A Washington Conversation

Report of a colloquium on the economics of coastal climate change adaptation held in Washington D.C. on April 16, 2015. The event was sponsored by The Center for Blue Economy of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the Urban Coast Institute of Monmouth University. Participants included Michael Conathan, Center for American Progress; Frank Nutter, Reinsurance Association of America; Dr. Robert Kopp, Rutgers University; Josh Sawislak, Council on Environmental Quality; Tony MacDonald, Urban Coast Institute; Jason Scorse and Charles Colgan, Center for the Blue Economy

Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanisms: New Frontiers For Familiar Tools

Demands for mechanisms to pay for adaptation to climate risks have multiplied rapidly as concern has shifted from greenhouse gas mitigation alone to also coping with the now-inevitable impacts. A number of viable approaches to how to pay for those adjustments to roads, drainage systems, lifeline utilities and other basic infrastructure are emerging, though untested at the scale required across the nation, which already has a trillion-dollar deferred maintenance and replacement problem. There are growing efforts to find new ways to harness private financial resources via new market arrangements to meet needs that clearly outstrip public resources alone, as well as to utilize and combine public resources more effectively. To date, mechanisms are often seen through a specific lens of scale, time, and method, for example national versus local and public versus market-based means. The purpose here is to integrate a number of those perspectives and also to highlight the following in particular. Current experience with seemingly more pedestrian needs like stormwater management funding is in fact a learning step towards new approaches for broader adaptation needs, using re-purposed but existing fiscal tools. The resources raised from new large-scale market approaches for using catastrophe- and resiliency-bond-derived funds will have their use embodied and operationalized in many separate local and state projects. The invention and packaging of innovative projects—the pre-development phase—will be pivotal to better using fiscal resources of many types. Those efforts can be greatly aided or hindered by larger national and especially state government policy, regulatory and capital market arrangements. Understanding the path to integration of effort across these scales deserves much more attention. Examples are given of how federal, state and local roles are each dimensions of that frontier, how existing tools can apply in new ways and how smart project creation plays a role.

Innovation and adaptation in the Ontario grape and wine industry: An integrated, transdisciplinary response to climate change

With scientific consensus supporting a 4oC increase in global mean temperature over the next century and increased frequency of severe weather events, adaptation to climate change is critical. Given the dynamic and complex nature of climate change, a transdisciplinary approach toward adaptation can create an environment that supports knowledge sharing and innovation, improving existing strategies and creating new ones. The Ontario wine industry provides a case study to illustrate the benefits of this approach. We describe the formation and work of the Ontario Grape and Wine Research Network within this context, and present some preliminary results to highlight the opportunities for innovation that will drive the successful adaption of the Ontario grape and wine industry.

Sustainability principles put into practice: case studies of network analysis in Swiss climate change adaptation

Climate adaptation policies increasingly incorporate sustainability principles into their design and implementation. Since successful adaptation by means of adaptive capacity is recognized as being dependent upon progress toward sustainable development, policy design is increasingly characterized by the inclusion of state and non-state actors (horizontal actor integration), cross-sectoral collaboration, and inter-generational planning perspectives. Comparing four case studies in Swiss mountain regions, three located in the Upper Rhone region and one case from western Switzerland, we investigate how sustainability is put into practice. We argue that collaboration networks and sustainability perceptions matter when assessing the implementation of sustainability in local climate change adaptation. In other words, we suggest that adaptation is successful where sustainability perceptions translate into cross-sectoral integration and collaboration on the ground. Data about perceptions and network relations are assessed through surveys and treated via cluster and social network analysis.

Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change

Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion.

Climate change adaptation solutions for the green sectors of selected zones in the MENA region

In this paper, we propose climate adaptation solutions for the green sectors in three different zones of MENA: Egypt’s Delta (irrigated), Karak, in the highlands of Jordan (rainfed), and Lebanon’s Orontes basin (mixed: rainfed-irrigated). We analysed land use and crop intensification, and calculated the economic productivity of water – a critical scarce resource in MENA. By integrating the results with evidence from literature on the potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors, we could identify vulnerability levels of the three regions and propose adaptation measures relying of the concept of the “food-water-energy nexus.” While the vulnerability levels are found to be high in the Delta (Egypt) and Karak (Jordan), mainly due to water scarcity and poor adaptive capacity, the vulnerability level is moderate in the Orontes zone (Lebanon) due to a diversified agricultural sector and good market development, coupled with moderate water scarcity. Proposed adaptation solutions range from measures to improve technical efficiency, to measures that encourage economically efficient allocation by use of market forces. For both cases, the development of market opportunities is emphasized to make the proposed measures attractive to farmers.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Climate-Adaptive Community Water Management for Food Security: Experiences from the UNDP Community Water Initiative

Facing the double menace of climate change threats and water crisis, poor communities have now encountered ever more severe challenges in ensuring agricultural productivity and food security. Communities hence have to manage these challenges by adopting a comprehensive approach that not only enhances water resource management, but also adapts agricultural activities to climate variability. Implemented by the Global Environment Facility’s Small Grants Programme, the Community Water Initiative (CWI) has adopted a distinctive approach to support demand-driven, innovative, low cost and community-based water resource management for food security. Experiences from CWI showed that a comprehensive, locally adapted approach that integrates water resources management, poverty reduction, climate adaptation and community empowerment provides a good model for sustainable development in poor rural areas.

Adaptive governance: livelihood innovation for climate resilience in Uganda

Adaptive governance is the use of novel approaches within policy to support experimentation and learning. Social learning reflects the engagement of interdependent stakeholders within this learning. Much attention has focused on these concepts as a solution for resilience in governing institutions in an uncertain climate; resilience representing the ability of a system to absorb shock and to retain its function and form through reorganisation. However, there are still many questions to how these concepts enable resilience, particularly in vulnerable, developing contexts. A case study from Uganda presents how these concepts promote resilient livelihood outcomes among rural subsistence farmers within a decentralised governing framework. This approach has the potential to highlight the dynamics and characteristics of a governance system which may manage change. The paper draws from the enabling characteristics of adaptive governance, including lower scale dynamics of bonding and bridging ties and strong leadership. Central to these processes were learning platforms promoting knowledge transfer leading to improved self-efficacy, innovation and livelihood skills. However even though aspects of adaptive governance were identified as contributing to resilience in livelihoods, some barriers were identified. Reflexivity and multi-stakeholder collaboration were evident in governing institutions; however, limited self-organisation and vertical communication demonstrated few opportunities for shifts in governance, which was severely challenged by inequity, politicisation and elite capture. The paper concludes by outlining implications for climate adaptation policy through promoting the importance of mainstreaming adaptation alongside existing policy trajectories; highlighting the significance of collaborative spaces for stakeholders and the tackling of inequality and corruption.

Conservation of freshwater thermal habitats for Pacific salmon in a changing climate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06