Comparison of classification ability of hyperball algorithms to neural network and k-nearest neighbour algorithms

The main focus of this thesis is to evaluate and compare Hyperbalilearning algorithm (HBL) to other learning algorithms. In this work HBL is compared to feed forward artificial neural networks using back propagation learning, K-nearest neighbor and 103 algorithms. In order to evaluate the similarity of these algorithms, we carried out three experiments using nine benchmark data sets from UCI machine learning repository. The first experiment compares HBL to other algorithms when sample size of dataset is changing. The second experiment compares HBL to other algorithms when dimensionality of data changes. The last experiment compares HBL to other algorithms according to the level of agreement to data target values. Our observations in general showed, considering classification accuracy as a measure, HBL is performing as good as most ANn variants. Additionally, we also deduced that HBL.:s classification accuracy outperforms 103's and K-nearest neighbour's for the selected data sets.

Automated detection of hematological abnormalities through classification of flow cytometric data patterns

Flow Cytometry analyzers have become trusted companions due to their ability to perform fast and accurate analyses of human blood. The aim of these analyses is to determine the possible existence of abnormalities in the blood that have been correlated with serious disease states, such as infectious mononucleosis, leukemia, and various cancers. Though these analyzers provide important feedback, it is always desired to improve the accuracy of the results. This is evidenced by the occurrences of misclassifications reported by some users of these devices. It is advantageous to provide a pattern interpretation framework that is able to provide better classification ability than is currently available. Toward this end, the purpose of this dissertation was to establish a feature extraction and pattern classification framework capable of providing improved accuracy for detecting specific hematological abnormalities in flow cytometric blood data. ^ This involved extracting a unique and powerful set of shift-invariant statistical features from the multi-dimensional flow cytometry data and then using these features as inputs to a pattern classification engine composed of an artificial neural network (ANN). The contribution of this method consisted of developing a descriptor matrix that can be used to reliably assess if a donor’s blood pattern exhibits a clinically abnormal level of variant lymphocytes, which are blood cells that are potentially indicative of disorders such as leukemia and infectious mononucleosis. ^ This study showed that the set of shift-and-rotation-invariant statistical features extracted from the eigensystem of the flow cytometric data pattern performs better than other commonly-used features in this type of disease detection, exhibiting an accuracy of 80.7%, a sensitivity of 72.3%, and a specificity of 89.2%. This performance represents a major improvement for this type of hematological classifier, which has historically been plagued by poor performance, with accuracies as low as 60% in some cases. This research ultimately shows that an improved feature space was developed that can deliver improved performance for the detection of variant lymphocytes in human blood, thus providing significant utility in the realm of suspect flagging algorithms for the detection of blood-related diseases.^

Mult-class differentiation of cannabis seedlings in a forensic context

This article presents an experimental study about the classification ability of several classifiers for multi-classclassification of cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland lawenforcement authorities regularly ask forensic laboratories to determinate the chemotype of a seized cannabisplant and then to conclude if the plantation is legal or not. This classification is mainly performed when theplant is mature as required by the EU official protocol and then the classification of cannabis seedlings is a timeconsuming and costly procedure. A previous study made by the authors has investigated this problematic [1]and showed that it is possible to differentiate between drug type (illegal) and fibre type (legal) cannabis at anearly stage of growth using gas chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based on therelative proportions of eight major leaf compounds. The aims of the present work are on one hand to continueformer work and to optimize the methodology for the discrimination of drug- and fibre type cannabisdeveloped in the previous study and on the other hand to investigate the possibility to predict illegal cannabisvarieties. Seven classifiers for differentiating between cannabis seedlings are evaluated in this paper, namelyLinear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), Nearest NeighbourClassification (NNC), Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ), Radial Basis Function Support Vector Machines(RBF SVMs), Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The performance of each method wasassessed using the same analytical dataset that consists of 861 samples split into drug- and fibre type cannabiswith drug type cannabis being made up of 12 varieties (i.e. 12 classes). The results show that linear classifiersare not able to manage the distribution of classes in which some overlap areas exist for both classificationproblems. Unlike linear classifiers, NNC and RBF SVMs best differentiate cannabis samples both for 2-class and12-class classifications with average classification results up to 99% and 98%, respectively. Furthermore, RBFSVMs correctly classified into drug type cannabis the independent validation set, which consists of cannabisplants coming from police seizures. In forensic case work this study shows that the discrimination betweencannabis samples at an early stage of growth is possible with fairly high classification performance fordiscriminating between cannabis chemotypes or between drug type cannabis varieties.

Comparison of extrasystolic ECG signal classifiers using discrete wavelet transforms

This work compares and contrasts results of classifying time-domain ECG signals with pathological conditions taken from the MITBIH arrhythmia database. Linear discriminant analysis and a multi-layer perceptron were used as classifiers. The neural network was trained by two different methods, namely back-propagation and a genetic algorithm. Converting the time-domain signal into the wavelet domain reduced the dimensionality of the problem at least 10-fold. This was achieved using wavelets from the db6 family as well as using adaptive wavelets generated using two different strategies. The wavelet transforms used in this study were limited to two decomposition levels. A neural network with evolved weights proved to be the best classifier with a maximum of 99.6% accuracy when optimised wavelet-transform ECG data wits presented to its input and 95.9% accuracy when the signals presented to its input were decomposed using db6 wavelets. The linear discriminant analysis achieved a maximum classification accuracy of 95.7% when presented with optimised and 95.5% with db6 wavelet coefficients. It is shown that the much simpler signal representation of a few wavelet coefficients obtained through an optimised discrete wavelet transform facilitates the classification of non-stationary time-variant signals task considerably. In addition, the results indicate that wavelet optimisation may improve the classification ability of a neural network. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural networks models for wear patterns recognition of single-point dresser

Grinding is a workpiece finishing process for advanced products and surfaces. However, the constant friction between workpiece and grinding wheel causes the latter to lose its sharpness, thereby impairing the result of the grinding process. When this occurs, the dressing process is essential to sharpen the worn grains of the grinding wheel. The dressing conditions strongly influence the performance of the grinding operation; hence, monitoring them throughout the process can increase its efficiency. The purpose of this study was to classify the wear condition of a single-point dresser using intelligent systems whose inputs were obtained by digitally processing acoustic emission signals. Two multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks were compared for their classification ability, one using the root mean square (RMS) statistics and another the ratio of power (ROP) statistics as input. In this study, it was found that the harmonic content of the acoustic emission signal is influenced by the condition of the dresser, and that the condition of the tool under study can be classified by using the aforementioned statistics to feed a neural network. © IFAC.

Tool Condition Monitoring of Single-Point Dresser Using Acoustic Emission and Neural Networks Models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mass spectrometry-based protein profiling strategies for biomarker discovery in liver and inflammatory bowel diseases

The study of protein expression profiles for biomarker discovery in serum and in mammalian cell populations needs the continuous improvement and combination of proteins/peptides separation techniques, mass spectrometry, statistical and bioinformatic approaches. In this thesis work two different mass spectrometry-based protein profiling strategies have been developed and applied to liver and inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) for the discovery of new biomarkers. The first of them, based on bulk solid-phase extraction combined with matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization - Time of Flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) and chemometric analysis of serum samples, was applied to the study of serum protein expression profiles both in IBDs (Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis) and in liver diseases (cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, viral hepatitis). The approach allowed the enrichment of serum proteins/peptides due to the high interaction surface between analytes and solid phase and the high recovery due to the elution step performed directly on the MALDI-target plate. Furthermore the use of chemometric algorithm for the selection of the variables with higher discriminant power permitted to evaluate patterns of 20-30 proteins involved in the differentiation and classification of serum samples from healthy donors and diseased patients. These proteins profiles permit to discriminate among the pathologies with an optimum classification and prediction abilities. In particular in the study of inflammatory bowel diseases, after the analysis using C18 of 129 serum samples from healthy donors and Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis and inflammatory controls patients, a 90.7% of classification ability and a 72.9% prediction ability were obtained. In the study of liver diseases (hepatocellular carcinoma, viral hepatitis and cirrhosis) a 80.6% of prediction ability was achieved using IDA-Cu(II) as extraction procedure. The identification of the selected proteins by MALDITOF/ TOF MS analysis or by their selective enrichment followed by enzymatic digestion and MS/MS analysis may give useful information in order to identify new biomarkers involved in the diseases. The second mass spectrometry-based protein profiling strategy developed was based on a label-free liquid chromatography electrospray ionization quadrupole - time of flight differential analysis approach (LC ESI-QTOF MS), combined with targeted MS/MS analysis of only identified differences. The strategy was used for biomarker discovery in IBDs, and in particular of Crohn’s disease. The enriched serum peptidome and the subcellular fractions of intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) from healthy donors and Crohn’s disease patients were analysed. The combining of the low molecular weight serum proteins enrichment step and the LCMS approach allowed to evaluate a pattern of peptides derived from specific exoprotease activity in the coagulation and complement activation pathways. Among these peptides, particularly interesting was the discovery of clusters of peptides from fibrinopeptide A, Apolipoprotein E and A4, and complement C3 and C4. Further studies need to be performed to evaluate the specificity of these clusters and validate the results, in order to develop a rapid serum diagnostic test. The analysis by label-free LC ESI-QTOF MS differential analysis of the subcellular fractions of IECs from Crohn’s disease patients and healthy donors permitted to find many proteins that could be involved in the inflammation process. Among them heat shock protein 70, tryptase alpha-1 precursor and proteins whose upregulation can be explained by the increased activity of IECs in Crohn’s disease were identified. Follow-up studies for the validation of the results and the in-depth investigation of the inflammation pathways involved in the disease will be performed. Both the developed mass spectrometry-based protein profiling strategies have been proved to be useful tools for the discovery of disease biomarkers that need to be validated in further studies.

The information bottleneck method for genome-wide association studies

In population studies, most current methods focus on identifying one outcome-related SNP at a time by testing for differences of genotype frequencies between disease and healthy groups or among different population groups. However, testing a great number of SNPs simultaneously has a problem of multiple testing and will give false-positive results. Although, this problem can be effectively dealt with through several approaches such as Bonferroni correction, permutation testing and false discovery rates, patterns of the joint effects by several genes, each with weak effect, might not be able to be determined. With the availability of high-throughput genotyping technology, searching for multiple scattered SNPs over the whole genome and modeling their joint effect on the target variable has become possible. Exhaustive search of all SNP subsets is computationally infeasible for millions of SNPs in a genome-wide study. Several effective feature selection methods combined with classification functions have been proposed to search for an optimal SNP subset among big data sets where the number of feature SNPs far exceeds the number of observations. ^ In this study, we take two steps to achieve the goal. First we selected 1000 SNPs through an effective filter method and then we performed a feature selection wrapped around a classifier to identify an optimal SNP subset for predicting disease. And also we developed a novel classification method-sequential information bottleneck method wrapped inside different search algorithms to identify an optimal subset of SNPs for classifying the outcome variable. This new method was compared with the classical linear discriminant analysis in terms of classification performance. Finally, we performed chi-square test to look at the relationship between each SNP and disease from another point of view. ^ In general, our results show that filtering features using harmononic mean of sensitivity and specificity(HMSS) through linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is better than using LDA training accuracy or mutual information in our study. Our results also demonstrate that exhaustive search of a small subset with one SNP, two SNPs or 3 SNP subset based on best 100 composite 2-SNPs can find an optimal subset and further inclusion of more SNPs through heuristic algorithm doesn't always increase the performance of SNP subsets. Although sequential forward floating selection can be applied to prevent from the nesting effect of forward selection, it does not always out-perform the latter due to overfitting from observing more complex subset states. ^ Our results also indicate that HMSS as a criterion to evaluate the classification ability of a function can be used in imbalanced data without modifying the original dataset as against classification accuracy. Our four studies suggest that Sequential Information Bottleneck(sIB), a new unsupervised technique, can be adopted to predict the outcome and its ability to detect the target status is superior to the traditional LDA in the study. ^ From our results we can see that the best test probability-HMSS for predicting CVD, stroke,CAD and psoriasis through sIB is 0.59406, 0.641815, 0.645315 and 0.678658, respectively. In terms of group prediction accuracy, the highest test accuracy of sIB for diagnosing a normal status among controls can reach 0.708999, 0.863216, 0.639918 and 0.850275 respectively in the four studies if the test accuracy among cases is required to be not less than 0.4. On the other hand, the highest test accuracy of sIB for diagnosing a disease among cases can reach 0.748644, 0.789916, 0.705701 and 0.749436 respectively in the four studies if the test accuracy among controls is required to be at least 0.4. ^ A further genome-wide association study through Chi square test shows that there are no significant SNPs detected at the cut-off level 9.09451E-08 in the Framingham heart study of CVD. Study results in WTCCC can only detect two significant SNPs that are associated with CAD. In the genome-wide study of psoriasis most of top 20 SNP markers with impressive classification accuracy are also significantly associated with the disease through chi-square test at the cut-off value 1.11E-07. ^ Although our classification methods can achieve high accuracy in the study, complete descriptions of those classification results(95% confidence interval or statistical test of differences) require more cost-effective methods or efficient computing system, both of which can't be accomplished currently in our genome-wide study. We should also note that the purpose of this study is to identify subsets of SNPs with high prediction ability and those SNPs with good discriminant power are not necessary to be causal markers for the disease.^

Recognition on Finite Set of Events: Bayesian Analysis of Generalization Ability and Classification Tree Pruning

The problem of recognition on finite set of events is considered. The generalization ability of classifiers for this problem is studied within the Bayesian approach. The method for non-uniform prior distribution specification on recognition tasks is suggested. It takes into account the assumed degree of intersection between classes. The results of the analysis are applied for pruning of classification trees.

Degree classification and recent graduates’ ability: Is there any signalling effect?

Research across several countries has shown that degree classification (i.e. the final grade awarded to students successfully completing university) is an important determinant of graduates’ first destination outcome. Graduates leaving university with higher degree classifications have better employment opportunities and a higher likelihood of continuing education relative to those with lower degree classifications. This article investigates whether one of the reasons for this result is that employers and higher education institutions use degree classification as a signalling device for the ability that recent graduates may possess. Given the large number of applicants and the amount of time and resources typically required to assess their skills, employers and higher education institutions may decide to rely on this measure when forming beliefs about recent graduates’ abilities. Using data on two cohorts of recent graduates from a UK university, results suggest that an Upper Second degree classification may have a signalling role.

Adding fever to WHO criteria for diagnosing pneumonia enhances the ability to identify pneumonia cases among wheezing children

Objective To examine the ability of the criteria proposed by the WHO to identify pneumonia among cases presenting with wheezing and the extent to which adding fever to the criteria alters their performance. Design Prospective classification of 390 children aged 2-59 months with lower respiratory tract disease into five diagnostic categories, including pneumonia. WHO criteria for the identification of pneumonia and a set of such criteria modified by adding fever were compared with radio-graphically diagnosed pneumonia as the gold standard. Results The sensitivity of the WHO criteria was 94% for children aged <24 months and 62% for those aged >= 24 months. The corresponding specificities were 20% and 16%. Adding fever to the WHO criteria improved specificity substantially (to 44% and 50%, respectively). The specificity of the WHO criteria was poor for children with wheezing (12%). Adding fever improved this substantially (to 42%). The addition of fever to the criteria apparently reduced their sensitivity only marginally (to 92% and 57%, respectively, in the two age groups). Conclusion The authors' results reaffirm that the current WHO criteria can detect pneumonia with high sensitivity, particularly among younger children. They present evidence that the ability of these criteria to distinguish between children with pneumonia and those with wheezing diseases might be greatly enhanced by the addition of fever.

Classification of individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins according to plasma biomarkers of oxidative stress using cluster analysis

Oxidative stress is a physiological condition that is associated with atherosclerosis. and it can be influenced by diet. Our objective was to group fifty-seven individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins according to four oxidative biomarkers, and to evaluate the diet pattern and blood biochemistry differences between these groups. Blood samples were collected and the following parameters were evaluated: diet intake; plasma fatty acids; lipoprotein concentration; glucose; oxidised LDL (oxLDL); malondialdehyde (MDA): total antioxidant activity by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and ferric reducing ability power assays. Individuals were separated into five groups by cluster analysis. All groups showed a difference with respect to at least one of the four oxidative stress biomarkers. The separation of individuals in the first axis was based upon their total antioxidant activity. Clusters located on the right side showed higher total antioxidant activity, higher myristic fatty acid and lower arachidonic fatty acid proportions than clusters located on the left side. A negative correlation was observed between DPPH and the peroxidability index. The second axis showed differences in oxidation status as measured by MDA and oxLDL concentrations. Clusters located on the Upper side showed higher oxidative status and lower HDL cholesterol concentration than clusters located on the lower side. There were no differences in diet among the five clusters. Therefore, fatty acid synthesis and HDL cholesterol concentration seem to exert a more significant effect on the oxidative conditions of the individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins than does their food intake.

Automatic learning for the classification of chemical reactions and in statistical thermodynamics

This Thesis describes the application of automatic learning methods for a) the classification of organic and metabolic reactions, and b) the mapping of Potential Energy Surfaces(PES). The classification of reactions was approached with two distinct methodologies: a representation of chemical reactions based on NMR data, and a representation of chemical reactions from the reaction equation based on the physico-chemical and topological features of chemical bonds. NMR-based classification of photochemical and enzymatic reactions. Photochemical and metabolic reactions were classified by Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (Kohonen SOMs) and Random Forests (RFs) taking as input the difference between the 1H NMR spectra of the products and the reactants. The development of such a representation can be applied in automatic analysis of changes in the 1H NMR spectrum of a mixture and their interpretation in terms of the chemical reactions taking place. Examples of possible applications are the monitoring of reaction processes, evaluation of the stability of chemicals, or even the interpretation of metabonomic data. A Kohonen SOM trained with a data set of metabolic reactions catalysed by transferases was able to correctly classify 75% of an independent test set in terms of the EC number subclass. Random Forests improved the correct predictions to 79%. With photochemical reactions classified into 7 groups, an independent test set was classified with 86-93% accuracy. The data set of photochemical reactions was also used to simulate mixtures with two reactions occurring simultaneously. Kohonen SOMs and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) were trained to classify the reactions occurring in a mixture based on the 1H NMR spectra of the products and reactants. Kohonen SOMs allowed the correct assignment of 53-63% of the mixtures (in a test set). Counter-Propagation Neural Networks (CPNNs) gave origin to similar results. The use of supervised learning techniques allowed an improvement in the results. They were improved to 77% of correct assignments when an ensemble of ten FFNNs were used and to 80% when Random Forests were used. This study was performed with NMR data simulated from the molecular structure by the SPINUS program. In the design of one test set, simulated data was combined with experimental data. The results support the proposal of linking databases of chemical reactions to experimental or simulated NMR data for automatic classification of reactions and mixtures of reactions. Genome-scale classification of enzymatic reactions from their reaction equation. The MOLMAP descriptor relies on a Kohonen SOM that defines types of bonds on the basis of their physico-chemical and topological properties. The MOLMAP descriptor of a molecule represents the types of bonds available in that molecule. The MOLMAP descriptor of a reaction is defined as the difference between the MOLMAPs of the products and the reactants, and numerically encodes the pattern of bonds that are broken, changed, and made during a chemical reaction. The automatic perception of chemical similarities between metabolic reactions is required for a variety of applications ranging from the computer validation of classification systems, genome-scale reconstruction (or comparison) of metabolic pathways, to the classification of enzymatic mechanisms. Catalytic functions of proteins are generally described by the EC numbers that are simultaneously employed as identifiers of reactions, enzymes, and enzyme genes, thus linking metabolic and genomic information. Different methods should be available to automatically compare metabolic reactions and for the automatic assignment of EC numbers to reactions still not officially classified. In this study, the genome-scale data set of enzymatic reactions available in the KEGG database was encoded by the MOLMAP descriptors, and was submitted to Kohonen SOMs to compare the resulting map with the official EC number classification, to explore the possibility of predicting EC numbers from the reaction equation, and to assess the internal consistency of the EC classification at the class level. A general agreement with the EC classification was observed, i.e. a relationship between the similarity of MOLMAPs and the similarity of EC numbers. At the same time, MOLMAPs were able to discriminate between EC sub-subclasses. EC numbers could be assigned at the class, subclass, and sub-subclass levels with accuracies up to 92%, 80%, and 70% for independent test sets. The correspondence between chemical similarity of metabolic reactions and their MOLMAP descriptors was applied to the identification of a number of reactions mapped into the same neuron but belonging to different EC classes, which demonstrated the ability of the MOLMAP/SOM approach to verify the internal consistency of classifications in databases of metabolic reactions. RFs were also used to assign the four levels of the EC hierarchy from the reaction equation. EC numbers were correctly assigned in 95%, 90%, 85% and 86% of the cases (for independent test sets) at the class, subclass, sub-subclass and full EC number level,respectively. Experiments for the classification of reactions from the main reactants and products were performed with RFs - EC numbers were assigned at the class, subclass and sub-subclass level with accuracies of 78%, 74% and 63%, respectively. In the course of the experiments with metabolic reactions we suggested that the MOLMAP / SOM concept could be extended to the representation of other levels of metabolic information such as metabolic pathways. Following the MOLMAP idea, the pattern of neurons activated by the reactions of a metabolic pathway is a representation of the reactions involved in that pathway - a descriptor of the metabolic pathway. This reasoning enabled the comparison of different pathways, the automatic classification of pathways, and a classification of organisms based on their biochemical machinery. The three levels of classification (from bonds to metabolic pathways) allowed to map and perceive chemical similarities between metabolic pathways even for pathways of different types of metabolism and pathways that do not share similarities in terms of EC numbers. Mapping of PES by neural networks (NNs). In a first series of experiments, ensembles of Feed-Forward NNs (EnsFFNNs) and Associative Neural Networks (ASNNs) were trained to reproduce PES represented by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) analytical potential function. The accuracy of the method was assessed by comparing the results of molecular dynamics simulations (thermal, structural, and dynamic properties) obtained from the NNs-PES and from the LJ function. The results indicated that for LJ-type potentials, NNs can be trained to generate accurate PES to be used in molecular simulations. EnsFFNNs and ASNNs gave better results than single FFNNs. A remarkable ability of the NNs models to interpolate between distant curves and accurately reproduce potentials to be used in molecular simulations is shown. The purpose of the first study was to systematically analyse the accuracy of different NNs. Our main motivation, however, is reflected in the next study: the mapping of multidimensional PES by NNs to simulate, by Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo, the adsorption and self-assembly of solvated organic molecules on noble-metal electrodes. Indeed, for such complex and heterogeneous systems the development of suitable analytical functions that fit quantum mechanical interaction energies is a non-trivial or even impossible task. The data consisted of energy values, from Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations, at different distances, for several molecular orientations and three electrode adsorption sites. The results indicate that NNs require a data set large enough to cover well the diversity of possible interaction sites, distances, and orientations. NNs trained with such data sets can perform equally well or even better than analytical functions. Therefore, they can be used in molecular simulations, particularly for the ethanol/Au (111) interface which is the case studied in the present Thesis. Once properly trained, the networks are able to produce, as output, any required number of energy points for accurate interpolations.

Evaluation of the World Health Organization 2009 classification of dengue severity in autopsied individuals, during the epidemics of 2011 and 2012 in Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The dengue classification proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2009 is considered more sensitive than the classification proposed by the WHO in 1997. However, no study has assessed the ability of the WHO 2009 classification to identify dengue deaths among autopsied individuals suspected of having dengue. In the present study, we evaluated the ability of the WHO 2009 classification to identify dengue deaths among autopsied individuals suspected of having dengue in Northeast Brazil, where the disease is endemic. METHODS: This retrospective study included 121 autopsied individuals suspected of having dengue in Northeast Brazil during the epidemics of 2011 and 2012. All the autopsied individuals included in this study were confirmed to have dengue based on the findings of laboratory examinations. RESULTS: The median age of the autopsied individuals was 34 years (range, 1 month to 93 years), and 54.5% of the individuals were males. According to the WHO 1997 classification, 9.1% (11/121) of the cases were classified as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and 3.3% (4/121) as dengue shock syndrome. The remaining 87.6% (106/121) of the cases were classified as dengue with complications. According to the 2009 classification, 100% (121/121) of the cases were classified as severe dengue. The absence of plasma leakage (58.5%) and platelet counts <100,000/mm3 (47.2%) were the most frequent reasons for the inability to classify cases as DHF. CONCLUSIONS: The WHO 2009 classification is more sensitive than the WHO 1997 classification for identifying dengue deaths among autopsied individuals suspected of having dengue.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".