Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Le défi de la protection de la vie privée face aux besoins de circulation de l'information personnelle

/Face à l’innovation apportée par les technologies de l’information, il est loisible de s’interroger sur la pertinence des concepts juridiques qui ont été arrêtés en un autre siècle et sous une autre technologie. Il s’agira donc dans une perspective préliminaire, d’envisager l’influence de ces innovations sur le droit de la vie privée. Aussi, en utilisant le concept de « neutralité technologique », nous mesurerons la réalité de son application dans ce domaine d’activité en vérifiant sa pertinence et en identifiant les éléments qui pourraient, au contraire, laisser croire à une différence de traitement entre le papier et l’électronique. Une fois ce constat fait, nous évaluerons les changements opérés respectivement sur le plan de la forme du droit et de sa substance. Concernant en premier lieu sa forme, nous examinerons principalement la façon de faire des lois en nous interrogeant sur l’attitude du législateur qui nous semble quelque peu varier dés lors qu’il s’agit d’encadrer la spécificité des renseignements personnels sur support électronique. Dans la seconde partie, si les principes généraux relatifs à la gestion des renseignements personnels sont désormais connus, il faudra s’interroger sur le fait de savoir si une évolution n’est pas nécessaire.

State of labor in Europe: 1878. Reports from the United States consuls in the several countries of Europe, on the rates of wages; cost of living to the laborers; past and present rates; present condition of trade; business habits, and systems; amount of paper money in circulation, and its relative value to gold and silver; for the several consular districts, in response to a circular from the Department of state requesting information upon these subjects;

Mode of access: Internet.

Transforming scientific information with everyday thinking: A social representations perspective

Cette thèse examine la circulation et l'intégration des informations scientifiques dans la pensée quotidienne d'après la théorie des représentations sociales (TRS). En tant qu'alternative aux approches traditionnelles de la communication de la science, les transformations survenant entre le discours scientifique et le discours de sens commun sont considérées comme adaptatives. Deux études sur la circulation des informations dans les media (études 1 et 2) montrent des variations dans les thèmes de discours exposés aux profanes, et parmi les discours de ceux-ci, en fonction de différentes sources. Ensuite, le processus d'ancrage dans le positionnement préalable envers la science est étudié, pour l'explication qu'il fournit de la réception et de la transmission d'informations scientifiques dans le sens commun. Les effets d'ancrage dans les attitudes et croyances préexistants sont reportés dans différents contextes de circulation des informations scientifiques (études 3 à 7), incluant des études de type corrélationnel, experimental et de terrain. Globalement, cette thèse procure des arguments en faveur de la pertinence de la TRS pour la recherche sur la communication de la science, et suggère des développements théoriques et méthodologiques pour ces deux domaines de recherche. Drawing on the social representations theory (SRT), this thesis examines the circulation and integration of scientific information into everyday thinking. As an alternative to the traditional approaches of science communication, it considers transformations between scientific and common-sense discourses as adaptive. Two studies, focused on the spreading of information into the media (Studies 1 and 2), show variations in the themes of discourses introduced to laypersons and in the themes among laypersons' discourses, according to different sources. Anchoring in prior positioning toward science is then studied for the explanation it provides on the reception and transmission of scientific information into common sense. Anchoring effects in prior attitudes and beliefs are reported in different contexts of circulation of scientific information (Studies 3 to 7) by using results from correlational, field, and experimental studies. Overall, this thesis provides arguments for the relevance of SRT in science communication research and suggests theoretical and methodological developments for both domains of research.

L'exploitation des traces dans les accidents de la circulation

Les investigations dans le milieu des accidents de la circulation sont très complexes. Elles nécessitent la mise en oeuvre d'un grand nombre de spécialités venant de domaines très différents. Si certains de ces domaines sont déjà bien exploités, d'autres demeurent encore incomplets et il arrive de nos jours d'observer des lacunes dans la pratique, auxquelles il est primordial de remédier.Ce travail de thèse, intitulé « l'exploitation des traces dans les accidents de la circulation », est issu d'une réflexion interdisciplinaire entre de multiples aspects des sciences forensiques. Il s'agit principalement d'une recherche ayant pour objectif de démontrer les avantages découlant d'une synergie entre les microtraces et l'étude de la dynamique d'un accident. Afin de donner une dimension très opérationnelle à ce travail, l'ensemble des démarches entreprises a été axé de manière à optimiser l'activité des premiers intervenants sur les lieux.Après une partie introductive et ayant trait au projet de recherche, traitant des aspects théoriques de la reconstruction d'une scène d'accident, le lecteur est invité à prendre connaissance de cinq chapitres pratiques, abordés selon la doctrine « du général au particulier ». La première étape de cette partie pratique concerne l'étude de la morphologie des traces. Des séquences d'examens sont proposées pour améliorer l'interprétation des contacts entre véhicules et obstacles impliqués dans un accident. Les mécanismes de transfert des traces de peinture sont ensuite étudiés et une série de tests en laboratoire est pratiquée sur des pièces de carrosseries automobiles. Différents paramètres sont ainsi testés afin de comprendre leur impact sur la fragilité d'un système de peinture. Par la suite, une liste de cas traités (crash-tests et cas réels), apportant des informations intéressantes sur le traitement d'une affaire et permettant de confirmer les résultats obtenus est effectuée. Il s'ensuit un recueil de traces, issu de l'expérience pratique acquise et ayant pour but d'aiguiller la recherche et le prélèvement sur les lieux. Finalement, la problématique d'une banque de données « accident », permettant une gestion optimale des traces récoltées est abordée.---The investigations of traffic accidents are very complex. They require the implementation of a large number of specialties coming from very different domains. If some of these domains are already well exploited, others remain still incomplete and it happens nowadays to observe gaps in the practice, which it is essential to remedy. This thesis, entitled "the exploitation of traces in traffic accidents", arises from a multidisciplinary reflection between the different aspects of forensic science. It is primarily a research aimed to demonstrate the benefits of synergy between microtrace evidence and accidents dynamics. To give a very operational dimension to this work, all the undertaken initiatives were centred so as to optimise the activity of the first participants on the crime scene.After an introductory part treating theoretical aspects of the reconstruction of an accident scene the reader is invited to get acquainted with five practical chapters, according to the doctrine "from general to particular". For the first stage of this practical part, the problem of the morphology of traces is approached and sequences of examinations are proposed to improve the interpretation of the contacts between vehicles and obstacles involved in an accident. Afterwards, the mechanisms of transfer of traces of paint are studied and a series of tests in laboratory is practised on pieces of automobile bodies. Various parameters are thus tested to understand their impact on the fragility of a system of paint. It follows that a list of treated cases (crash-tests and real cases) is created, allowing to bring interesting information on the treatment of a case and confirm the obtained results. Then, this work goes on with a collection of traces, stemming from the acquired experience that aims to steer the research and the taking of evidence on scenes. Finally, the practical part of this thesis ends with the problem of a database « accident », allowing an optimal management of the collected traces.

Co-circulation of genotypes IA and IB of hepatitis A virus in Northeast Brazil

The Northeast region is the location of most cases of acute hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Brazil. In the present study, the genotypes of HAV strains from Pernambuco State, one of most populous states in the Northeast region, were characterized. Blood samples positive for anti-HAV IgM from 145 individuals (mean age = 29.1 years), collected during 2002 and 2003, were submitted to nested RT-PCR for amplification of the 5'non-translated region (5'NTR) and VP1/2A regions of the HAV genome. The VP1/2A and 5'NTR regions were amplified in 39 and 21% of the samples, respectively. Nucleotide sequencing was carried out in 46% of VP1/2A and in 53% of 5'NTR isolates. The identity in nucleotide sequence of the VP1/2A region ranged from 93.6 to 100.0%. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP1/2A sequences showed that 65% belong to sub-genotype IA and 35% to sub-genotype IB. Co-circulation of both sub-genotypes was observed in the two years studied. Distinct clusters of highly related sequences were observed in both sub-genotypes, suggesting endemic circulation of HAV strains in this area. In the 5'NTR isolates, 92.7-99.2% identity was observed and two isolates presented one deletion at position 413. Phylogenetic analysis showed that genotype IA strains cluster in the tree in the same way as genotype IB strains, but one IIIA isolate from Spain clusters with genotype IB strains. These results do not allow us to state that 5'NTR could be used to genotype HAV sequences. This is the first report of co-circulation of sub-genotypes IA and IB in this region, providing additional information about the molecular epidemiology of HAV strains in Brazil.

S'engager à l'ère du Web : attitudes, perceptions et sens de l'engagement chez la "génération de l'information" (20-35 ans)

Cette recherche explore le sens que la « génération de l’information » (20-35 ans) donne à l’engagement. Alors que sociologues et médias ont longtemps brandi des chiffres alarmants concernant la désaffection électorale des jeunes et leur rejet des associations ou groupes de pression usuels, le développement du Web 2.0 semble donner lieu à de nouvelles formes d’action visant le changement social, qui sont particulièrement prisées par les jeunes. Analysant leur recours à des pratiques de manifestations éclairs (flash mobs), de cyberdissidence, l’utilisation du micro-blogging et des réseaux Facebook et Twitter dans le cadre de mobilisations récentes, des enquêtes suggèrent qu’elles témoignent d’une nouvelle culture de la participation sociale et politique, qui appelle à repenser les façons de concevoir et de définir l’engagement. Or, si nous assistons à une transformation profonde des répertoires et des modes d’action des jeunes, il demeure difficile de comprendre en quoi et comment l’utilisation des TIC influence leur intérêt ou motivation à « agir ». Que veut dire s’engager pour les jeunes aujourd’hui ? Comment perçoivent-ils le contexte social, politique et médiatique ? Quelle place estiment-ils pouvoir y occuper ? Soulignant l’importance du sens que les acteurs sociaux donnent à leurs pratiques, la recherche s’éloigne des perspectives technocentristes pour explorer plus en profondeur la façon dont de jeunes adultes vivent, expérimentent et interprètent l’engagement dans le contexte médiatique actuel. La réflexion s’ancre sur une observation empirique et deux séries d’entretiens en profondeur (de groupe et individuels), menés auprès de 137 jeunes entre 2009-2012. Elle analyse un ensemble de représentations, perceptions et pratiques d’individus aux horizons et aux modes d’engagement variés, soulignant les multiples facteurs qui agissent sur la façon dont ils choisissent d’agir et les raisons qui les mènent à recourir aux TIC dans le cadre de pratiques spécifiques. À la croisée d’une multiplication des modes de participation et des modes d’interaction qui marquent l’univers social et politique des jeunes, la recherche propose de nouvelles hypothèses théoriques et une métaphore conceptuelle, le « murmure des étourneaux », pour penser la façon dont les pratiques d’affichage personnel, de relais, et d’expérimentation mises en avant par les jeunes s’arriment en réseau à celles d’autrui pour produire des « dérives culturelles » : des changements importants dans les façons de percevoir, d’agir et de penser. Loin d’une génération apathique ou technophile, les propos soulevés en entretiens suggèrent un processus réflexif de construction de sens, dont l’enjeu vise avant tout à donner l’exemple, et à penser ensemble de nouveaux possibles. La recherche permet d’offrir un éclairage qualitatif et approfondi sur ce qui caractérise la façon dont les jeunes perçoivent et définissent l’engagement, en plus d’ouvrir de nouvelles avenues pour mieux comprendre comment ils choisissent d’agir à l’ère du Web.

Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959–2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability.

Impact of hydrographic data assimilation on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Here we make an initial step toward the development of an ocean assimilation system that can constrain the modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to support climate predictions. A detailed comparison is presented of 1° and 1/4° resolution global model simulations with and without sequential data assimilation, to the observations and transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array across 26.5° N in the Atlantic. Comparisons of modelled water properties with the observations from the merged RAPID boundary arrays demonstrate the ability of in situ data assimilation to accurately constrain the east-west density gradient between these mooring arrays. However, the presence of an unconstrained "western boundary wedge" between Abaco Island and the RAPID mooring site WB2 (16 km offshore) leads to the intensification of an erroneous southwards flow in this region when in situ data are assimilated. The result is an overly intense southward upper mid-ocean transport (0–1100 m) as compared to the estimates derived from the RAPID array. Correction of upper layer zonal density gradients is found to compensate mostly for a weak subtropical gyre circulation in the free model run (i.e. with no assimilation). Despite the important changes to the density structure and transports in the upper layer imposed by the assimilation, very little change is found in the amplitude and sub-seasonal variability of the AMOC. This shows that assimilation of upper layer density information projects mainly on the gyre circulation with little effect on the AMOC at 26° N due to the absence of corrections to density gradients below 2000 m (the maximum depth of Argo). The sensitivity to initial conditions was explored through two additional experiments using a climatological initial condition. These experiments showed that the weak bias in gyre intensity in the control simulation (without data assimilation) develops over a period of about 6 months, but does so independently from the overturning, with no change to the AMOC. However, differences in the properties and volume transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) persisted throughout the 3 year simulations resulting in a difference of 3 Sv in AMOC intensity. The persistence of these dense water anomalies and their influence on the AMOC is promising for the development of decadal forecasting capabilities. The results suggest that the deeper waters must be accurately reproduced in order to constrain the AMOC.

How much information is lost by using global-mean climate metrics? an example using the transport sector

Metrics are often used to compare the climate impacts of emissions from various sources, sectors or nations. These are usually based on global-mean input, and so there is the potential that important information on smaller scales is lost. Assuming a non-linear dependence of the climate impact on local surface temperature change, we explore the loss of information about regional variability that results from using global-mean input in the specific case of heterogeneous changes in ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations resulting from emissions from road traffic, aviation and shipping. Results from equilibrium simulations with two general circulation models are used. An alternative metric for capturing the regional climate impacts is investigated. We find that the application of a metric that is first calculated locally and then averaged globally captures a more complete and informative signal of climate impact than one that uses global-mean input. The loss of information when heterogeneity is ignored is largest in the case of aviation. Further investigation of the spatial distribution of temperature change indicates that although the pattern of temperature response does not closely match the pattern of the forcing, the forcing pattern still influences the response pattern on a hemispheric scale. When the short-lived transport forcing is superimposed on present-day anthropogenic CO2 forcing, the heterogeneity in the temperature response to CO2 dominates. This suggests that the importance of including regional climate impacts in global metrics depends on whether small sectors are considered in isolation or as part of the overall climate change.

Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Some climatological information from 14 atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind, and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated; the general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown; consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate; and approaches to understanding and reducing model deficiencies are discussed. The information presented here is a subset of a more voluminous compilation which is available in report form (Boer et al., 1991). This report contains essentially the same text, but results from all 14 models are presented together with additional results in the form of geographical distributions of surface variables and certain difference statistics.