Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Evolutionary history of the mtDNA 9-bp deletion in Chinese populations and its relevance to the peopling of east and southeast Asia

In total, 1218 Chinese from twelve ethnic groups and nine Han geographic groups were screened for the mtDNA 9-bp deletion motif. The frequency of the 9-bp deletion in all samples was 14.7% but ranged from 0% to 32% in the various ethnic groups. Three individuals had a triplication of the 9-bp segment. Phylogenetic and demographic analyses of the mtDNA hypervariable segment 1 (HVS1) sequences suggest that the 9-bp deletion occurred more than once in China. The majority of the Chinese deletion:haplotypes (about 90%) have a common origin as a mutational event following an initial expansion of modem humans in eastern Asia. Other deletion haplotypes and the three haplotypes with a 9-bp triplication may have arisen independently in the Chinese, presumably by replication error. HVS1 haplotype analysis suggests two possible migration routes of the 9-bp deletion in east and southeast Asia. Both migrations originated in China with one route leading to the Pacific Islands via Taiwan, the other to southeast Asia and possibly the Nicobar Islands. Along both routes of peopling, a decrease in HVS1 diversity of the mtDNA haplotypes is observed. The "Polynesian motif (16217T/C, 16247A/G, and 16261C/T)" and the 16140T/C, 16266C/A, or C/G polymorphisms appear specific to each migration route.

Accessibility as a determinant of environmental dynamics in socio-economic disparities in mainland Southeast Asia

Access and accessibility are important determinants of people’s ability to utilise natural resources, and have a strong impact on household welfare. Physical accessibility of natural resources, on the other hand, has generally been regarded as one of the most important drivers of land-use and land-cover changes. Based on two case studies, this article discusses evidence of the impact of access to services and access to natural resources on household poverty and on the environment. We show that socio-cultural distances are a key limiting factor for gaining access to services, and thereby for improved household welfare. We also discuss the impact of socio-cultural distances on access to natural resources, and show that large-scale commercial exploitation of natural resources tends to occur beyond the spatial reach of socio-culturally and economically marginalised population segments. We conclude that it is essential to pay more attention to improving the structural environment that presently leaves social minority groups marginalised. Innovative approaches that use natural resource management to induce poverty reduction – for example, through compensation of local farmers for environmental services – appear to be promising avenues that can lead to integration of the objectives of poverty reduction and sustainable environmental stewardship.

The European Union's promotion of regional economic integration in Southeast Asia: Norms, markets or both? Bruges Political Research Paper No. 25/May 2012

The EU‘s external action includes a preference for regional interlocutors and a tendency to promote regionalism. This work concentrates on the southeast Asian area and it aims at investigating the nature of EU‘s promotion of ASEAN regional integration. The EU‘s ideas and practices of regionalism as well as the single market experience influence the EU‘s international action. The power deriving from the EU‘s institutionalized market is used by the Union in a normative way to diffuse the EU‘s ideas and principles, advance the EU‘s interests and spread its model of economic integration through political dialogue, development cooperation and preferential trade arrangements. This action seems to result in a certain diffusion of the EU‘s ideas and practices in southeast Asia as well as in a subsequent reappropriation and redefinition of external inputs by ASEAN.

Student's cross-perception of the economic crises in the European Union and in Southeast Asia. EU Centre in Singapore Working Paper No. 11, December 2012

The financial crisis of 1997-1998 in Southeast Asia and the European Union’s financial crisis of 2008 followed by the sovereign debt crisis represented major policy events in the regions and beyond. The crises triggered policy adjustments with implications on economic and other policies. This paper aims at evaluating the perception of university students in the European Union (EU) and Southeast Asia on the management of these crises. It strives to confirm several ex ante assumptions about the relationship between students’ background, their policy orientation and their knowledge of the European Union and ASEAN policies. It also provides an analysis of the students’ evaluation of the geopolitical importance of the global regions and the EU and ASEAN policies. The paper is based on opinion surveys conducted during the first part of 2012 at four universities, two in the EU and two in ASEAN countries. In the eyes of EU and ASEAN students, the EU crisis is not being managed appropriately. The citizens of the EU surveyed were even significantly more critical of the EU’s anti-crisis measures than any other surveyed group. Their ASEAN counterparts were generally more positive in their evaluations.

Export processing zones and growth triangle development: The case of the BIMP-EAGA, Southeast Asia

Exorts processing zones (EPZs) and growth triangles have been two common Asian initiatives to increase wealth and regional competitiveness in the world economy. Since they are seldom analysed jointly, this paper investigates their mutuality in the development process. Taking the problematic case of the Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA) triangle, we explore the role of EPZs in enhancing regional collaboration, competitiveness, and domestic linkages. Despite the triangle's weak economic complementarities, its processing zones are found capable of advancing development by furthering opportunities in regionalisation/localisation of production. Latterly, trade and investment liberalisation within ASEAN raises broad questions about the rationale of EPZs and growth triangles. Zone-triangle nexuses will require rethinking as, under different regulatory conditions, the zones compete more directly across ASEAN and also with global rivals. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Realistic yet humanitarian? The comprehensive plan of action and refugee policy in Southeast Asia

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) has recently been described as a successful example of how to manage large protracted refugee flows. However, this article revisits the circumstances surrounding the CPA used to resolve the prolonged Indo-Chinese refugee crisis to highlight that part of its development was linked to the fact that Southeast Asian states refused to engage with proposed solutions, which did not include repatriation for the majority of the Indo-Chinese asylum seekers who were deemed to be ‘non-genuine’1 ( UNGA, 1989a) refugees. This resulted in the CPA often forcibly repatriating ‘non-genuine’ refugees, particularly near the end of its program. This article reviews the CPA in order to assess whether its practices and results should be repeated.

The plain truth: Australia, tobacco control, and Southeast Asia

As of December 2012, Australia will be the first country in the world where tobacco products will be sold in olive plain packaging without branding. There has been much discussion as to whether this pioneering initiative will spark an ‘Olive Revolution’ around the world — with other countries adopting the plain packaging of tobacco products. Australia’s neighbours in Southeast Asia would particularly benefit from tobacco control measures such as the plain packaging.

An overview of fisheries conflicts in South and Southeast Asia: Recommendations, challenges and directions

Fisheries conflicts are among the persistent problems affecting the security of food, livelihoods and fishing environments crucial to poor fishing communities in developing countries in South and Southeast Asia. Most conflicts arise from excessive fishing efforts due to increasing population and economic motivations. Conflicts are not all undesirable as some disputes become a catalyst for much needed reforms for policy and economic improvements. However, a framework for analyzing conflicts in fisheries is necessary to organize interventions relevant to the nature of conflicts, and the needs and capacities of fisheries stakeholders in the region. The WorldFish Center, together with research partners, conducted studies that identify a framework for managing fisheries conflicts. Thematic policy recommendations for managing fishing capacity and related conflicts in small-scale fisheries in the region are identified for further consideration by fisheries stakeholders.

Clinical and molecular characteristics of hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer families in Southeast Asia

Hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC), predominantly due to germline MLH1/MSH2 mutations, is the commonest form of hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC), but data in Asians are sparse. We sequenced the MLH1/MSH2 coding and promoter core regions in CRC patients diagnosed below age 40, and/or with multiple primary cancers or familial cancer clustering suggestive of HNPCC, and correlated deleterious mutations with clinical and tumour features. Forty-six Chinese, Malay and Indian kindreds participated. Of the 153 cancers reported in the 46 kindreds, stomach (14%) and urogenital cancers (13%) were the most common extracolonic cancers, whereas endometrial cancer comprised only 7%. Eleven different MLH1 and 12 MSH2 mutations were identified, including nine novel and four recurring mutations in the Chinese. One Indian was a compound heterozygote for an MLH1 and MSH2 mutation. The MLH1/MSH2 mutation data in the Malays and the Indians represents the first in these ethnic groups. Factors strongly associated with deleterious mutations were the Amsterdam criteria, family history of stomach or multiple primary cancers, and MSI-high tumours, whereas family history of endometrial cancer and young cancer age alone correlated poorly. Distinct clinical and molecular characteristics were identified among Asian HNPCC kindreds and may have important clinical implications.

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.