On the concept of endogenous volatility

Most financial and economic time-series display a strong volatility around their trends. The difficulty in explaining this volatility has led economists to interpret it as exogenous, i.e., as the result of forces that lie outside the scope of the assumed economic relations. Consequently, it becomes hard or impossible to formulate short-run forecasts on asset prices or on values of macroeconomic variables. However, many random looking economic and financial series may, in fact, be subject to deterministic irregular behavior, which can be measured and modelled. We address the notion of endogenous volatility and exemplify the concept with a simple business-cycles model.

A RELIGIÃO NO CONFLITO ENTRE ISRAEL E PALESTINA NO CONTEXTO DA CRIAÇÃO DO ESTADO JUDAICO: ASPECTOS HISTÓRICOS (1896-1948)

O presente trabalho analisa o papel da religião no conflito entre Israel e Palestina, principalmente no contexto da implantação do Estado de Israel, em 1948. A análise toma como delimitação histórica do conflito o período de 1896 a 1948, quando ocorre a migração das primeiras levas de judeus para os territórios palestinos. A pergunta inicial é sobre como judeus e muçulmanos se relacionavam nos primeiros anos de imigração até a criação do Estado de Israel. O problema principal a ser esclarecido é como a construção cultural ocidental em relação aos palestinos interferiu no conflito, principalmente no que tange à tomada da terra e à construção de um novo país dentro de um já existente, socialmente, religiosamente e culturalmente. Finalmente a pesquisa pergunta pela repercussão do conflito entre israelenses e palestinos no campo religioso protestante, principalmente entre grupos conservadores e fundamentalistas deste ramo do cristianismo. A pesquisa é totalmente bibliográfica e toma como referência as teorias pós-coloniais para debater a história do território, no que se refere aos aspectos religiosos do conflito.

A RELIGIÃO NO CONFLITO ENTRE ISRAEL E PALESTINA NO CONTEXTO DA CRIAÇÃO DO ESTADO JUDAICO: ASPECTOS HISTÓRICOS (1896-1948)

O presente trabalho analisa o papel da religião no conflito entre Israel e Palestina, principalmente no contexto da implantação do Estado de Israel, em 1948. A análise toma como delimitação histórica do conflito o período de 1896 a 1948, quando ocorre a migração das primeiras levas de judeus para os territórios palestinos. A pergunta inicial é sobre como judeus e muçulmanos se relacionavam nos primeiros anos de imigração até a criação do Estado de Israel. O problema principal a ser esclarecido é como a construção cultural ocidental em relação aos palestinos interferiu no conflito, principalmente no que tange à tomada da terra e à construção de um novo país dentro de um já existente, socialmente, religiosamente e culturalmente. Finalmente a pesquisa pergunta pela repercussão do conflito entre israelenses e palestinos no campo religioso protestante, principalmente entre grupos conservadores e fundamentalistas deste ramo do cristianismo. A pesquisa é totalmente bibliográfica e toma como referência as teorias pós-coloniais para debater a história do território, no que se refere aos aspectos religiosos do conflito.

Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

The signs of the times, or, The approach of the millennium : an address to the Tories, Whigs, Radicals, and chartists, churchmen, Catholics, dissenters, and infidels, to all producers of wealth, and non-producers, in Great Britain and Ireland /

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 32484.

Images of the future of privacy: A privacy dynamics framework and a causal layered

The future of privacy in the information age is a highly debated topic. In particular, new and emerging technologies such as ICTs and cognitive technologies are seen as threats to privacy. This thesis explores images of the future of privacy among non-experts within the time frame from the present until the year 2050. The aims of the study are to conceptualise privacy as a social and dynamic phenomenon, to understand how privacy is conceptualised among citizens and to analyse ideal-typical images of the future of privacy using the causal layered analysis method. The theoretical background of the thesis combines critical futures studies and critical realism, and the empirical material is drawn from three focus group sessions held in spring 2012 as part of the PRACTIS project. From a critical realist perspective, privacy is conceptualised as a social institution which creates and maintains boundaries between normative circles and preserves the social freedom of individuals. Privacy changes when actors with particular interests engage in technology-enabled practices which challenge current privacy norms. The thesis adopts a position of technological realism as opposed to determinism or neutralism. In the empirical part, the focus group participants are divided into four clusters based on differences in privacy conceptions and perceived threats and solutions. The clusters are fundamentalists, pragmatists, individualists and collectivists. Correspondingly, four ideal-typical images of the future are composed: ‘drift to low privacy’, ‘continuity and benign evolution’, ‘privatised privacy and an uncertain future’, and ‘responsible future or moral decline’. The images are analysed using the four layers of causal layered analysis: litany, system, worldview and myth. Each image has its strengths and weaknesses. The individualistic images tend to be fatalistic in character while the collectivistic images are somewhat utopian. In addition, the images have two common weaknesses: lack of recognition of ongoing developments and simplistic conceptions of privacy based on a dichotomy between the individual and society. The thesis argues for a dialectical understanding of futures as present images of the future and as outcomes of real processes and mechanisms. The first steps in promoting desirable futures are the awareness of privacy as a social institution, the awareness of current images of the future, including their assumptions and weaknesses, and an attitude of responsibility where futures are seen as the consequences of present choices.

Al-Qaeda - terrorists, hypocrites, fundamentalists? The view from within

This article investigates the ideology of Al-Qaeda as perceived from within the network. Particular attention is paid to the ideological background of Al-Qaeda's intellectual leadership, its sociopolitical context and the nature of its recruits. The inner logic of the Al-Qaeda organisation advances an intellectual concept that is not based on the main schools of Islamic theology, but on a new ideological starting point that results from the application of Islamic principles to sociopolitical change. With its political goals reinforced by the teachings of the Quran, exemplified by the content and rhetoric of a recently discovered training manual, the organisation creates powerful imagery embedded in the collective consciousness of the Muslim community. Thus, the message provided by Al-Qaeda inspires its followers to commit violent acts of destruction while being fully convinced that they are fulfilling the ordained will of Allah.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Consumed by Faith: The development of Christian Fundamentalism and its applications in contemporary society

My research aims to understand how and why fundamentalists justify violence against people who do not fit their profile of "righteous" or "saved" persons, such as abortion doctors and clinic workers, gays and lesbians, and Jews. The first section of this paper travels through the history of fundamentalism since its origins in the British and American apocalipticism, or belief in the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. However, my history of Protestant Fundamentalism in the United States will focus on the ways in which Fundamentalism developed in response to many changes in American social structure. I interpret Fundamentalism as an anti-modern movement seeking to reassert "traditional" Christian values.

Pipkiiα Is Widely Expressed In Hematopoietic-derived Cells And May Play A Role In The Expression Of Alpha- And Gamma-globins In K562 Cells.

Characterized for the first time in erythrocytes, phosphatidylinositol phosphate kinases (PIP kinases) belong to a family of enzymes that generate various lipid messengers and participate in several cellular processes, including gene expression regulation. Recently, the PIPKIIα gene was found to be differentially expressed in reticulocytes from two siblings with hemoglobin H disease, suggesting a possible relationship between PIPKIIα and the production of globins. Here, we investigated PIPKIIα gene and protein expression and protein localization in hematopoietic-derived cells during their differentiation, and the effects of PIPKIIα silencing on K562 cells. PIPKIIα silencing resulted in an increase in α and γ globins and a decrease in the proliferation of K562 cells without affecting cell cycle progression and apoptosis. In conclusion, using a cell line model, we showed that PIPKIIα is widely expressed in hematopoietic-derived cells, is localized in their cytoplasm and nucleus, and is upregulated during erythroid differentiation. We also showed that PIPKIIα silencing can induce α and γ globin expression and decrease cell proliferation in K562 cells.

Obesity And Inflammation And The Effect On The Hematopoietic System.

Bone marrow is organized in specialized microenvironments known as 'marrow niches'. These are important for the maintenance of stem cells and their hematopoietic progenitors whose homeostasis also depends on other cell types present in the tissue. Extrinsic factors, such as infection and inflammatory states, may affect this system by causing cytokine dysregulation (imbalance in cytokine production) and changes in cell proliferation and self-renewal rates, and may also induce changes in the metabolism and cell cycle. Known to relate to chronic inflammation, obesity is responsible for systemic changes that are best studied in the cardiovascular system. Little is known regarding the changes in the hematopoietic system induced by the inflammatory state carried by obesity or the cell and molecular mechanisms involved. The understanding of the biological behavior of hematopoietic stem cells under obesity-induced chronic inflammation could help elucidate the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in other inflammatory processes, such as neoplastic diseases and bone marrow failure syndromes.

Antiangiogenic And Finasteride Therapies: Responses Of The Prostate Microenvironment In Elderly Mice.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the structural and molecular effects of antiangiogenic therapies and finasteride on the ventral prostate of senile mice. 90 male FVB mice were divided into: Young (18 weeks old) and senile (52 weeks old) groups; finasteride group: finasteride (20mg/kg); SU5416 group: SU5416 (6 mg/kg); TNP-470 group: TNP-470 (15 mg/kg,) and SU5416+TNP-470 group: similar to the SU5416 and TNP-470 groups. After 21 days, prostate ventral lobes were collected for morphological, immunohistochemical and Western blotting analyses. The results demonstrated atrophy, occasional proliferative lesions and inflammatory cells in the prostate during senescence, which were interrupted and/or blocked by treatment with antiangiogenic drugs and finasteride. Decreased AR and endostatin reactivities, and an increase for ER-α, ER-β and VEGF, were seen in the senile group. Decreased VEGF and ER-α reactivities and increased ER-β reactivity were verified in the finasteride, SU5416 groups and especially in SU5416+TNP-470 group. The TNP-470 group showed reduced AR and ER-β protein levels. The senescence favored the occurrence of structural and/or molecular alterations suggesting the onset of malignant lesions, due to the imbalance in the signaling between the epithelium and stroma. The SU5416+TNP-470 treatment was more effective in maintaining the structural, hormonal and angiogenic factor balance in the prostate during senescence, highlighting the signaling of antiproliferation via ER-β.

Egfr Activating Mutations And Their Association With Response To Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy In Brazilian Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients.

The aim of the study was to analyze the frequency of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations in Brazilian non-small cell lung cancer patients and to correlate these mutations with response to benefit of platinum-based chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Our cohort consisted of prospective patients with NSCLCs who received chemotherapy (platinum derivates plus paclitaxel) at the [UNICAMP], Brazil. EGFR exons 18-21 were analyzed in tumor-derived DNA. Fifty patients were included in the study (25 with adenocarcinoma). EGFR mutations were identified in 6/50 (12 %) NSCLCs and in 6/25 (24 %) adenocarcinomas; representing the frequency of EGFR mutations in a mostly self-reported White (82.0 %) southeastern Brazilian population of NSCLCs. Patients with NSCLCs harboring EGFR exon 19 deletions or the exon 21 L858R mutation were found to have a higher chance of response to platinum-paclitaxel (OR 9.67 [95 % CI 1.03-90.41], p = 0.047). We report the frequency of EGFR activating mutations in a typical southeastern Brazilian population with NSCLC, which are similar to that of other countries with Western European ethnicity. EGFR mutations seem to be predictive of a response to platinum-paclitaxel, and additional studies are needed to confirm or refute this relationship.

Intermittent Fasting Induces Hypothalamic Modifications Resulting In Low Feeding Efficiency, Low Body Mass And Overeating.

Intermittent fasting (IF) is an often-used intervention to decrease body mass. In male Sprague-Dawley rats, 24 hour cycles of IF result in light caloric restriction, reduced body mass gain, and significant decreases in the efficiency of energy conversion. Here, we study the metabolic effects of IF in order to uncover mechanisms involved in this lower energy conversion efficiency. After 3 weeks, IF animals displayed overeating during fed periods and lower body mass, accompanied by alterations in energy-related tissue mass. The lower efficiency of energy use was not due to uncoupling of muscle mitochondria. Enhanced lipid oxidation was observed during fasting days, whereas fed days were accompanied by higher metabolic rates. Furthermore, an increased expression of orexigenic neurotransmitters AGRP and NPY in the hypothalamus of IF animals was found, even on feeding days, which could explain the overeating pattern. Together, these effects provide a mechanistic explanation for the lower efficiency of energy conversion observed. Overall, we find that IF promotes changes in hypothalamic function that explain differences in body mass and caloric intake.