松嫩平原农牧交错区优化生态-生产范式——以长岭县为例

松嫩平原农牧交错区位于松嫩平原的西部，中国北方农牧交错带的最东端;具有独特的地质环境特点，环境问题突出，是我国生态脆弱地区之一，及世界三大苏打盐碱土集中分布区之一。近年来，由于人为的不合理利用和开垦、以及粗放的生产模式，使该地区生态系统严重受损，土地沙漠化、水土流失、盐碱化、土地生产力下降等生态环境问题日益突出。因此，建立一个适合该地区生态环境条件、社会经济发展状况的优化生态-生产范式是必要而紧迫的。 本论文以松嫩平原农牧交错区为研究对象，以其典型地段为切入点，通过大量数据的收集、文献资料的查阅、野外考察与测定、室内分析处理等，得出了以下主要结论： 一、生态-地理环境背景分析 松嫩平原农牧交错区是多种生态-地理环境危害并存的区域，其中包括盐碱化、沙漠化、气候灾害、水资源短缺等等。当前，沙化土地和盐碱化土地的面积已占该地区土地总面积的34.27 %，并且呈逐年递增的趋势。松嫩平原农牧交错区气候灾害频发，主要是旱灾、水灾、风灾。此外，水资源短缺以及水质问题，同样影响着农业生产及社会经济发展。造成松嫩平原农牧交错区多种生态-地质环境危害并存的主要影响机制是：该地区自身的地质-地理环境特点、气候因素和人类活动的综合效应，并且人类活动日益成为主要驱动因子。 二、实例研究 松嫩平原农牧交错区优化生态-生产范式研究是以长岭县为例，通过对长岭县景观格局变化分析、土壤格局分布、农牧业生产特点、以及农业可持续性评价等，得出以下结论： 1、对研究区内土地利用格局分析表明：1980 ~ 2000年，在土地利用类型没有发生变化的基础上，表现为各土地利用类型面积上的增减;草地、林地大面积地向农田转移，农田面积明显增加;大规模地开垦农田，已经导致了景观的优势度增加，破碎度增加，多样性下降，这最终将使整个景观趋于更加不稳定。 2、长岭县土壤总体水平较差，障碍性土壤占长岭县总土地面积的55.38 %。从土地利用变化对不同地势条件下土壤理化性状影响分析，结果表明：（1）地势相对高的平台地，土壤肥力较高，且开垦对土壤理化性质的影响相对较小，更适合农业开发;（2）低地原生植被为草甸草原，其养分状况也比较好，但其地势较低，易发生水渍和盐碱化;（3）坡地是当地土壤养分最为贫瘠地区，也是风沙土较集中分布的区域，对其开垦会增大土壤的风蚀和水蚀，使土壤养分状况严重下降。 3、对研究区牧草资源分布格局、牧草资源承载力和利用现状等进行分析，结果表明：放牧系统提供的牧草资源已不能满足当地畜牧业对牧草资源的需求。草地提供的牧草资源仅能满足总牧草需求的16.6 %，放牧系统提供的牧草仅占总牧草需求的47.3 %;玉米秸秆转化为牧草资源的潜力巨大，经估算，占总牧草资源的78.3 %，其承载力为总牧草需求的2.4倍。当前，农牧交错区牧草资源的粗蛋白含量普遍偏低，不能完全满足动物生产的需要，制约了当地畜牧业发展。根据当地畜牧业现状、牧草资源潜力，我们提出：应在合理利用当地牧草资源的基础上，有计划地建立高产优质、富含粗蛋白的人工牧草基地，实现畜牧业可持续发展与生态保护的协调统一。 4、长岭县是以第一产业为主，即农业生产为主要经济来源。对农业生产结构的分析表明：农牧业生产占总农业产值的90 %以上，并以种植业为主，种植业一直占总农业产值60 %以上。受当地气候条件、土壤格局分布的限制，单一粮食生产、粗放的生产模式以及对天然草地资源的过分依赖，最终导致该地区农牧业发展缓慢，经济条件落后。 5、在上述分析的基础上，作者提出了长岭县优化生态-生产范式，即以高效农业生产、生活圈，水土保持和自然生态保育圈、牧草生产基地及生态功能保护圈的三圈等级系统。以此为依据，对土地利用格局进行调整，通过粮、草、经多元农业结构的建设，在合理利用与保护草地的基础上，使长岭县畜牧业走向产业化的发展模式。

Development priority zoning (DPZ)-led scenario simulation for regional land use change : the case of Suichang County, China

China has experienced an extraordinary level of economic development since the 1990s, following excessive competition between different regions. This has resulted in many resource and environmental problems. Land resources, for example, are either abused or wasted in many regions. The strategy of development priority zoning (DPZ), proposed by the Chinese National 11th Five-Year Plan, provides an opportunity to solve these problems by coordinating regional development and protection. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the DPZ strategy should be integrated with regional land use policy. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model for assessing land use change in China led by the DPZ strategy. Land use is characterized by the prioritization of land development, land utilization, land harness and land protection (D-U-H-P). By using the Delphi method, a corresponding suitable prioritization of D-U-H-P for the four types of DPZ, including optimized development zones (ODZ), key development zones (KDZ), restricted development zones (RDZ), and forbidden development zones (FDZ) are identified. Suichang County is used as a case study in which to conduct the simulation of land use change under the RDZ strategy. The findings enable a conceptualization to be made of DPZ-led land use change and the identification of further implications for land use planning generally. The SD model also provides a potential tool for local government to combine DPZ strategy at the national level with land use planning at the local level.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

An Analysis of Cancer Patients' Survival and Influent Factors from 1993 to 1999 in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县1993~1999年恶性肿瘤患者的生存率及其影响因素分析]

To understand the survival status of cancer patients and influencing factors, an analysis was undertaken using data of 6450 cancer patients living in Linqu County, Shandong, diagnosed between 1993 and 1999. Survival rates were calculated using life table method with SAS 9.0 software. Overall 1-5 year survival rates for all patients were 53.16%, 28.65%, 21.57%, 18.36% and 17.87%, respectively. Cancers with a 5-year survival rate over 25% included ovarium, breast, uterus, stomach and colorectal cancers. Cancers with a 5-year survival lower than 10% were cancers on liver, cervical, lung and bones.Survival rates differed significantly across gender, age of onset, economic status, year of diagnosis and evidence of diagnosis. Patients' economic status, age of diagnosis and year of diagnosis seem to have strong effects on survival. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤患者生存现状,探讨影响生存率的因素. [方法] 对临朐县1993～1999年发病的6450例肿瘤患者的生存资料进行分析,利用SAS9.0软件寿命表法计算生存率. [结果] 临朐县1993～1999年的恶性肿瘤患者1～5年生存率分别为53.16%、28.65%、21.57%、18.36%和17.87%,5年生存率超过25%的恶性肿瘤有卵巢癌、乳腺癌、宫体癌、胃癌、结直肠癌,5年生存率低于10%的有肝癌、宫颈癌、肺癌、骨恶性肿瘤.不同性别、发病年龄、经济状况、诊断时间和诊断依据的恶性肿瘤生存率有显著性差异. [结论] 患者经济条件、诊断年龄和诊断时间影响恶性肿瘤生存率.

An analysis on trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与 死亡趋势分析]

Purpose To investigate the trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu county, and to provide scientific evidence for the government to design and adjust polices on cancer prevention and control. [Methods] The cancer registration data of new cases from 1995 to 2004 and death cases from 1998 to 2004 were used to analyse the incidence and mortality and the trend in Linqu county. Results Cancer general incidence significantly increased from 1995 to 2004 (P<0.05). The increasing speed incidence in male was faster than that in female. The incidence of lung cancer, colon/rectum cancer and pancreas cancer increased significantly (P<0.05), especially of lung cancer with an acceleration incidence rate of 2.12/100,000 peryear in average. The general mortality increased gradually from 1998 to 2004 with no significance (P>0.05). Both incidence and mortality in population aged 80 or over increased significantly (P<0.05). Conclusion The cancer incidence is rising during recent 10 years , and the prevention and control for lung cancer are getting increasingly important. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势,为政府制订和调整防治对策提供科学依据. [方法] 利用临朐县1995～2004年恶性肿瘤发病登记资料和1998～2004年的死亡登记资料,计算各种癌症发病率和死亡率,并做趋势分析. [结果] 1995～2004年临朐县恶性肿瘤总发病率呈明显上升趋势(P＜0.05),男性发病率上升速度高于女性.肺癌、肠癌、胰腺癌发病率上升显著(P＜0.05),以肺癌最为迅速(年均升高2.12/10万).1998～2004年恶性肿瘤总死亡率略有上升,但无显著性(P＞0.05);80岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势. [结论] 临朐县恶性肿瘤发病率近10年来呈现上升趋势,肺癌防治地位日益突出.

Nondelegable duty : the implications of Woodland v Essex County Council

English law has long recognised that nondelagable duties exist, but it does not have a single theory to explain when or why - arguable, one might add, until now. That is the value of the reasons for judgement in Woodland v Essex County Council.

Elizabeth nee Gottschalk and Hans Krakauer's first house in Boston with descriptions on the picture; Boston, Erie County, New York.

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Elizabeth nee Gottschalk and Hans Krakauer's first house in Boston with descriptions on the picture; Boston, Erie County, New York.

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Summary of Precipitation and Streamflow for Potrero and San Clemente Creeks in Water-Year 2007, Santa Lucia Preserve, Monterey County, California

In March 2007 CSU-Monterey Bay began hydrologic monitoring of Santa Lucia Preserve for the Santa Lucia Conservancy. This project is a continuation of monitoring begun by Balance Hydrologics as part of the permit requirements for land development. The purpose of this annual report is to present data summaries for the 2007 water year (October 1, 2006 to September 31, 2007). Rainfall in water year 2007 was very low, representing the 15 year drought rainfall. Streamflow was relatively low as well as indicated by baseflow conditions approaching the drought conditions of water-year 1991 (Croyle and Smith, 2007). Document contains 30 pages)

Saline water intrusion from deep artesian sources in McGregor Isles area of Lee County, Florida

Upward leakage of saline water from an artesian aquifer below 1,500 feet has caused an increase in chloride concentration in the lower Hawthorn aquifer from less than 1,000 mg/1 (milligrams per liter) to values ranging from about 1,300 to 15,000 mg/1. Similarly the higher temperatures of the intruding water has caused an increase in water temperatures in the aquifer from 82"F to values ranging from 83 to 93"F. The intruding water moves upward either through the open bore hole of deep wells or test holes, or along a fault or fracture system, which has been identified in the area. From these points of entry into the lower Hawthorn aquifer, the saline water spreads laterally toward the south and southeast, but is generally confined to components of the fault system. The saline water moves upward from the lower Hawthorn aquifer into the upper Hawthorn aquifer through the open bore hole of wells, which connect the aquifers. This movement has resulted in an increase in chloride from less than 200 mg/1 in the unaffected parts of the upper Hawthorn aquifer to values commonly ranging from about 300 to more than 3,000 mg/1 in parts of the aquifer affected by upward leakage. The upper Hawthorn aquifer is the principal source of ground-water supply for public water-supply systems in western Lee County. Similar effects have been noted in the water-table aquifer, where chloride increased from less than 100 to concentrations ranging from about 500 to more than 5,000 mg/1. This was caused by the downward infiltration of water discharged at land surface from wells tapping the lower Hawthorn aquifer. The spread of saline water throughout most of the McGregor Isles area is continuing as of 1971. (40 page document)

Records of hydrologic data, Walton County, Florida

This report presents discharge, chemical analyses, temperatures, and specific conductance records collected at 25 surface-water sites and chemical analyses of ground water, well descriptions and records of ground-water levels collected at 164 ground-water sites. It also contains 35 logs of the sedimentary rocks penetrated in the drilling of wells and test borings ranging in depth from 147 to 625 feet. These hydrologic data were collected as part of an investigation of the water resources of the county. The interpretative results of the investigation are in the report entitled, "Water resources of Walton County," by C. A. Pascale (in preparation, 1971). (108 page document)

Flood of September 20-23, 1969 in the Gadsden County area, Florida

The center of low pressure of a tropical disturbance which moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico, reached land between Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida, on September 20, 1969. This system was nearly stationary for 48 hours producing heavy rainfall in the Quincy-Havana area, 70-80 miles northeast of the center. Rainfall associated with the tropical disturbance exceeded 20 inches over a part of Gadsden County, Florida, during September 20 through 23, 1969, and the maximum rainfall of record occurred at Quincy with 10.87 inches during a 6-hour period on September 21. The 48-hour maximum of 17.71 inches exceeded the 1 in 100-year probability of 16 inches for a 7-day period. The previous maximum rainfall of record at Quincy (more than 12 inches) was on September 14-15, 1924. The characteristics of this historical storm were similar in path and effect to the September 1969 tropical disturbance. Peak runoff from a 1.4-square mile area near Midway, Florida, was 1,540 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile. A peak discharge of 45,600 cfs on September 22 at the gaging station on the Little River near Quincy exceeded the previous peak of 25,400 cfs which occurred on December 4, 1964. The peak discharge of 89,400 cfs at Ochlockonee River near Bloxham exceeded the April 1948 peak of 50,200 cfs, which was the previous maximum of record, by 1.8 times. Many flood-measurement sites had peak discharges in excess of that of a 50-year flood. Nearly $200,000 was spent on emergency repairs to roads. An additional $520,000 in contractual work was required to replace four bridges that were destroyed. Agricultural losses were estimated at $1,000,000. (44 page document)

2007 Annual Report: Hydrologic Conditions in Baseflow Reaches Pursuant to Conditions 14 and 15, Santa Lucia Preserve, Monterey County, California

This report presents the results of the 2007 baseflow condition surveys of the four major streams flowing through Santa Lucia Preserve- Las Garzas, Portrero, San Jose, and San Clemente Creeks. This report has been prepared for the Santa Lucia Conservancy and is primarily intended for the staff of Monterey County and California Department of Fish and Game, in accordance with the baseflow monitoring and reporting requirements outlined in County Conditions 14 and 15. The scope of this report is limited to the presentation and evaluation of existing baseflow conditions as required by Conditions 14 and 15, and is not intended as a comprehensive analysis. However, data presented here are an important part of the long term data set that will be used for future in depth watershed analyses. (Document contains 13 pages & 14 figs)

Reconnaissance of the ground-water resources of Baker County, Florida

Ground-water is not widely used in Baker County, but the presence of a high equipotential area in the artesian system beneath the County made it necessary that the resource be understood insofar as this high affected the ground-water resources of Nassau and Duval counties which were being intensively studied and mapped. The method and rates of movement of ground-water from one point to another in the artesian aquifer are understood more fully by use of the data in this report. (PDF contains 30 pages)