Research on using the decision tree method in order to select the best alternative for the pharmacies supply

Introduction / Aims: Adopting the important decisions represents a specific task of the manager. An efficient manager takes these decisions during a sistematic process with well-defined elements, each with a precise order. In the pharmaceutical practice and business, in the supply process of the pharmacies, there are situations when the medicine distributors offer a certain discount, but require payment in a shorter period of time. In these cases, the analysis of the offer can be made with the help of the decision tree method, which permits identifying the decision offering the best possible result in a given situation. The aims of the research have been the analysis of the product offers of many different suppliers and the establishing of the most advantageous ways of pharmacy supplying. Material / Methods: There have been studied the general product offers of the following medical stores: A&G Med, Farmanord, Farmexim, Mediplus, Montero and Relad. In the case of medicine offers including a discount, the decision tree method has been applied in order to select the most advantageous offers. The Decision Tree is a management method used in taking the right decisions and it is generally used when one needs to evaluate the decisions that involve a series of stages. The tree diagram is used in order to look for the most efficient means to attain a specific goal. The decision trees are the most probabilistic methods, useful when adopting risk taking decisions. Results: The results of the analysis on the tree diagrams have indicated the fact that purchasing medicines with discount (1%, 10%, 15%) and payment in a shorter time interval (120 days) is more profitable than purchasing without a discount and payment in a longer time interval (160 days). Discussion / Conclusion: Depending on the results of the tree diagram analysis, the pharmacies would purchase from the selected suppliers. The research has shown that the decision tree method represents a valuable work instrument in choosing the best ways for supplying pharmacies and it is very useful to the specialists from the pharmaceutical field, pharmaceutical management, to medicine suppliers, pharmacy practitioners from the community pharmacies and especially to pharmacy managers, chief – pharmacists.

Contributo do método árvore de causas no estudo dos acidentes de trabalho para a segurança no trabalho em altura com recurso às técnicas de acesso e posicionamento por cordas

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene do Trabalho.

Estudo de caso de dois acidentes do trabalho investigados com o método de árvore de causas

São apresentados dois acidentes do trabalho típicos, ocorridos em empresa de grande porte, investigados com o Método de Árvore de Causas ­ ADC, método que permite identificar o papel desempenhado por fatores gerenciais e de organização do trabalho no desencadeamento desses fenômenos. Os casos apresentados revelam a participação, na gênese dos acidentes, de fatores como designação temporária e improvisada de trabalhadores para funções e postos de trabalho, execução de tarefas deixadas à iniciativa e ao arbítrio dos trabalhadores, falta de ferramentas e de materiais apropriados à execução de tarefas e falhas na circulação de informações, entre outros. São também analisadas as indicações para o uso do método, suas potencialidades em termos de prevenção, bem como as implicações decorrentes de dificuldades de aplicação, de necessidades de treinamento e reciclagens e do dispêndio elevado de tempo para investigação de cada acidente.

Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil

The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s,without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, apposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. on the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows:the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise).

Diagnostic de securite d'une entreprise bresilienne a partir de l'analyse des accidents du travail par la methode de l'arbre des causes

We present here the results of a study of 21 work-related accidents that occurred in a Brazilian manufacturing company. The aim was to assess the safety level of the company to improve its work accident prevention policy. In the last 6 months of 1992 and 1993, all accidents resulting in 15 days' absence from work, reported for social security purposes, were analyzed using the INRS causal tree method (ADC) and a questionnaire completed on site. Potential risk factors for accidents were identified based on the specific factors highlighted by the ADC. More universal trees were also compiled for the safety assessment. Three hundred and thirty specific accident factors were recorded (man of 15.71 per accident). This is consistent with there being multiple causes of accidents rather than the assertion of Brazilian business safety departments that accidents are due to 'dangerous' or 'unsafe' behavior. Introducing the idea of culpability into accidents prevents the implementation of an appropriate information feedback process, essential for effective prevention. However, the large number of accidents related to 'material' (78%) and 'environment' (70%) indicates that working conditions are poor. This shows that the technical risks, mostly due to unsafe machinery and equipment are not being dealt with. Seventy-five potential accident factors were identified. Of these, 35% were 'organizational', a high proportion for the company studied. Improvisation occurs at all levels, particularly at the organizational level. This is, thus a major determinant for entire series of, if not most, accident situations. The poor condition of equipment also plays a major role in accidents. The effects of poor equipment on safety exacerbate the organizational shortcomings. The company's safety intervention policy should improve the management of human resources (rules designating particular workers for particular workstations; instructions for the safe operation of machines and equipment; training of operators, etc.) and introduce programs to detect risks and to improve the safety of machines and equipment. We also recommend the establishment of a program to follow the results of any preventive measures adopted.

Diagnostic de sécurité d’une entreprise brésilienne à partir de l’analyse des accidents du travail par la méthode de l’arbre des causes

We present here the results of a study of 21 work-related accidents that occurred in a Brazilian manufacturing company. The aim was to assess the safety level of the company to improve its work accident prevention policy. In the last 6 months of 1992 and 1993, all accidents resulting in 15 days' absence from work, reported for social security purposes, were analyzed using the INRS causal tree method (ADC) and a questionnaire completed on site. Potential risk factors for accidents were identified based on the specific factors highlighted by the ADC. More universal trees were also compiled for the safety assessment. Three hundred and thirty specific accident factors were recorded (mean of 15.71 per accident). This is consistent with there being multiple causes of accidents rather than the assertion of Brazilian business safety departments that accidents are due to dangerous or unsafe behavior. Introducing the idea of culpability into accidents prevents the implementation of an appropriate information feedback process, essential for effective prevention. However, the large number of accidents related to material (78%) and environment (70%) indicates that working conditions are poor. This shows that the technical risks, mostly due to unsafe machinery and equipment are not being dealt with. Seventy-five potential accident factors were identified. Of these, 35% were organizational, a high proportion for the company studied. Improvisation occurs at all levels, particularly at the organizational level. This is thus a major determinant for entire series of, if not most, accident situations. The poor condition of equipment also plays a major role in accidents. The effects of poor equipment on safety exacerbate the organizational shortcomings. The company's safety intervention policy should improve the management of human resources (rules designating particular workers for particular workstations; instructions for the safe operation of machines and equipment; training of operators, etc.) and introduce programs to detect risks and to improve the safety of machines and equipment. We also recommend the establishment of a program to follow the results of any preventive measures adopted.

Gli infortuni sul lavoro in Brasile. Studio nello Stato di San Paolo del Brasile, regione di Botucatu, utilizzando il metodo dell'albero delle cause

This paper discusses, within the prevaling Brazilian situation, the possibility of applying 'Causal Tree' (CT) method in investigating occupational accidents by safety personnel in the public health services and workers' unions. The method was developed during the seventies in France, for use by plant safety personnel. The authors used this method in Botucatu, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in order to investigate 40 serious occupational accidents that occurred in industrial plants during the second half of 1993, that had been registered by Social Security. In these cases, the predominance of situations in which the lack of safety measures were identified by inspection indicates that in most instances, the use of CT is unnecessary. However, the authors discuss its use by safety personnel from the public health services and workers' unions to investigate certain accidents to contribute to the knowledge base and help overcome the cultural based guilt which, in Brazil, has turned the victim into the person responsible for the accident.

Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification of the probability of containment failure caused by an in-vessel steam explosion for the Sizewell B PWR

AEA Technology has provided an assessment of the probability of α-mode containment failure for the Sizewell B PWR. After a preliminary review of the methodologies available it was decided to use the probabilistic approach described in the paper, based on an extension of the methodology developed by Theofanous et al. (Nucl. Sci. Eng. 97 (1987) 259–325). The input to the assessment is 12 probability distributions; the bases for the quantification of these distributions are discussed. The α-mode assessment performed for the Sizewell B PWR has demonstrated the practicality of the event-tree method with input data represented by probability distributions. The assessment itself has drawn attention to a number of topics, which may be plant and sequence dependent, and has indicated the importance of melt relocation scenarios. The α-mode failure probability following an accident that leads to core melt relocation to the lower head for the Sizewell B PWR has been assessed as a few parts in 10 000, on the basis of current information. This assessment has been the first to consider elevated pressures (6 MPa and 15 MPa) besides atmospheric pressure, but the results suggest only a modest sensitivity to system pressure.

Limitações bióticas afetando o recrutamento da palmeira Euterpe edulis em uma ilha continental da Mata Atlântica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Condições de trabalho e saúde dos profissionais da rede de saúde de Botucatu-SP

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Food Competition in a Semi-Free-Ranging Cebus apella Group

The competitive regime faced by individuals is fundamental to modelling the evolution of social organization. In this paper, we assess the relative importance of contest and scramble food competition on the social dynamics of a provisioned semi-free-ranging Cebus apella group (n=18). Individuals competed directly for provisioned and clumped foods. Effects of indirect competition were apparent with individuals foraging in different areas and with increased group dispersion during periods of low food abundance. We suggest that both forms of competition can act simultaneously and to some extent synergistically in their influence on social dynamics; the combination of social and ecological opportunities for competition and how those opportunities are exploited both influence the nature of the relationships within social groups of primates and underlie the evolved social structure. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel