Análisis de mapas causales de impactos del turismo residencial

Este artículo presenta la novedad metodológica de aplicar los programas informáticos de análisis de redes sociales (Ucinet® y Netdraw®) al análisis de mapas causales con la finalidad de mejorar los procesos de diagnóstico del turismo residencial a escala local. En concreto, esta propuesta metodológica se articula en los siguientes pasos: primero, la identificación de los impactos a escala local y la elaboración de sus mapas causales con la participación de actores locales relevantes; segundo, el análisis de redes de los mapas causales. Mediante este análisis es posible identificar las variables de mayor repercusión sobre las estructuras ambiental, económica y social de los municipios turísticos. Esta propuesta metodológica consigue sistematizar un gran volumen de información que ayuda al planificador local a discriminar las variables más influyentes con las que elaborar itinerarios de actuación más rentables en términos de inversión de recursos. El caso de estudio es el municipio de Dénia, situado en el norte de la provincia de Alicante. Los resultados muestran que las causas profundas de los impactos negativos inducidos por el turismo residencial están conectados con el déficit democrático en el proceso de gestión municipal del desarrollo turístico-residencial.

Étude exploratoire du soutien social dans le processus menant à l'hébergement des aînés en perte d'autonomie

Contexte : Au Québec, la très grande majorité des personnes âgées vivent dans un logement conventionnel. Pour celles qui sont en plus grande perte d’autonomie et qui ont besoin d’un environnement adapté à leurs besoins, soit environ 12 % de la population âgée de 65 ans ou plus en 2006, les options sont relativement limitées. Au 1er rang, on retrouve les résidences privées, pour ceux et celles qui en ont les moyens. Pour les autres, il y a les centres de soins de longue durée publics ou privés. Viennent ensuite les organismes sans but lucratif qui opèrent des projets résidentiels pour aînés, les communautés religieuses qui accueillent des personnes âgées dans leurs résidences, les ressources intermédiaires, les ressources de type familial, les habitations à loyer modique pour personnes âgées et les coopératives d’habitation. Les ressources alternatives du type projets novateurs arrivent en dernière position, ce qui explique que l’on en sait encore très peu sur la transition vers ce type d’hébergement. Problème et objet de recherche : La transition vers un milieu de vie substitut est un processus qui peut être potentiellement stressant dans la vie d’une personne âgée. Son réseau de soutien peut être appelé à jouer un rôle important pour l’aider à vivre cette transition avec plus de facilité. Si la littérature sur le soutien social est abondante, elle est plus limitée en ce qui concerne la relation entre le soutien social et la transition en milieu d’hébergement. La plupart des travaux recensés étudient les conséquences de l’hébergement durant les mois qui suivent le relogement. Quelques études analysent le processus décisionnel mais rares sont celles qui s’intéressent à toutes les étapes du processus qui précèdent le relogement. La plupart des recherches analysent surtout le point de vue des aidants et parfois celui des professionnels. Celui des personnes âgées est moins connu. But et objectifs : Le but de cette étude consiste à mieux comprendre comment opèrent les différentes formes de soutien social auprès des personnes âgées durant les diverses étapes du processus de transition en milieu d’hébergement. Plus précisément, elle vise à mieux comprendre comment ces personnes perçoivent les différents types de soutien apporté par leur réseau de soutien durant la transition, la signification que prend pour elles l’aide reçue, les besoins auxquels répond le soutien reçu et pourquoi elles apprécient ou non le soutien reçu. Cadre conceptuel : Cette recherche de type exploratoire et rétrospective se situe dans une approche des parcours de vie. La transition en milieu d’hébergement est étudiée comme un processus faisant partie de la trajectoire résidentielle de la personne. On privilégie une approche interactionnelle et constructiviste du soutien social qui accorde une attention plus grande aux interprétations subjectives des personnes faisant partie des réseaux de soutien. Méthodologie : On a interviewé huit (8) résidents (6 femmes et 2 hommes) de 64 ans ou plus, vivant dans un milieu d’hébergement alternatif de type projet novateur : les Habitations St-Christophe, une ressource alternative située dans la ville de Laval au Québec. Les perceptions des sujets du soutien social reçu durant la transition sont analysées à l’aide de la théorisation ancrée, la plus appropriée pour comprendre de l’intérieur le point de vue des participants. Résultats : L’analyse des perceptions des résidents interviewés du processus qui les a conduits aux Habitations St-Christophe a permis de mieux comprendre l’influence de leurs trajectoires résidentielles, les transitions ayant mené à leur hébergement, leurs perceptions du processus décisionnel et du rôle joué par des tiers dans les décisions prises, ainsi que les motifs de ces décisions, de même que le rôle joué par le soutien social durant la transition. Trois modèles de réseaux ont été identifiés, en tenant compte de la fréquence des contacts, de l’intensité des liens et de la disponibilité du soutien. Les formes les plus importantes de soutien reçu ont été identifiées à partir des perceptions des sujets de l’aide émotionnelle, instrumentale et cognitive fournie pendant la transition et de leur appréciation du soutien reçu. L’analyse a permis d’identifier deux modèles de transition (transition réfléchie, préparée et anticipée versus transition précipitée) et deux modèles de soutien (soutien valorisé versus soutien peu valorisé). Conclusions : Outre les éléments de convergence et les points de divergence observés entre nos résultats et la littérature, un certain nombre d’enseignements ont été retenus au niveau de l’intervention. Ceux-ci concernent les conditions gagnantes à mettre en place par les gestionnaires des services publics, certains principes à respecter dans les interventions, les mesures à prendre pour améliorer les interventions des professionnels et les interventions à mettre en place à l’intention des personnes âgées et de leurs proches aidants.

A unifying approach for haplotype analysis of quantitative traits in family-based association studies: Testing and estimating gene-environment interactions with complex exposure variables

We propose robust and e±cient tests and estimators for gene-environment/gene-drug interactions in family-based association studies. The methodology is designed for studies in which haplotypes, quantitative pheno- types and complex exposure/treatment variables are analyzed. Using causal inference methodology, we derive family-based association tests and estimators for the genetic main effects and the interactions. The tests and estimators are robust against population admixture and strati¯cation without requiring adjustment for confounding variables. We illustrate the practical relevance of our approach by an application to a COPD study. The data analysis suggests a gene-environment interaction between a SNP in the Serpine gene and smok- ing status/pack years of smoking that reduces the FEV1 volume by about 0.02 liter per pack year of smoking. Simulation studies show that the pro- posed methodology is su±ciently powered for realistic sample sizes and that it provides valid tests and effect size estimators in the presence of admixture and stratification.

El nuevo reto de relación con los clientes: Social CRM

La evolución de Internet al modelo Web 2.0, ha creado el nuevo sistema denominado Social Media, donde han proliferado un número ingente de redes sociales, que han cambiado las formas de relación y colaboración entre los usuarios, así como la relaciones de éstos y las empresas. En respuesta a estos dramáticos cambios sociales y tecnológicos, que actualmente están dando forma a las relaciones negocio-empresa, las empresas están descubriendo que es necesario modificar la estrategia de utilización del CRM (Customer Relationship Management) con sus clientes y desarrollar nuevas capacidades que permitan la creación de valor con los clientes. Y es aquí donde aparece el concepto de Social CRM, entendido como una estrategia centrada en entender, anticiparse y responder mejor a las necesidades de los clientes existentes o potenciales, aprovechando los datos sociales, para crear unas fuertes relaciones beneficiosas para ambas partes. En este trabajo se describe un modelo de adopción de Social CRM, aplicando un método de análisis “Top-Down”, y basado en el modelo de Gartner denominado “The Eight Building Blocks of CRM” [1]. El presente trabajo descompone el modelo de adopción descrito por Gartner, en los siguientes puntos. - Una decisión estratégica de la compañía - Asomarse a la realidad social - Analizar las redes sociales. - Metodología de adopción. - Despliegue y extensión en todos los departamentos de la compañía y la adaptación de los recursos humanos. - Selección e integración con las plataformas tradicionales de CRM - Análisis de herramientas de monitorización de Social CRM El modelo propuesto tiene dos objetivos, por un lado pretende proporcionar la visión de cómo CRM puede influir en los resultados empresariales en la era del cliente social, y por otro, proporcionar a los administradores cómo las inversiones y los recursos existentes de CRM puede ser integrados con las nuevas tecnologías y procesos para formar capacidades que pueden mejorar el rendimiento del negocio. ABSTRACT. “The Internet evolution to Web 2.0 model has created a new system called Social Media, where have proliferated a huge number of social networks which have changed the relationship and collaboration forms user-to-user and user-to-company. In response to these dramatic social and technological changes that are currently shaping the business-business relationships, companies are finding it necessary to modify the strategy for use of CRM (Customer Relationship Management) with customers and develop new capabilities to creating value with customers. And here is where the concept of Social CRM appears, understood as a focus on understanding, anticipating and responding to the needs of existing and potential customers strategy, leveraging social data to create a strong mutually beneficial relationships. In this paper describes an adoption model of Social CRM, using a "Top-Down" analysis method and based on the model of Gartner called "The Eight Building Blocks of CRM" [1]. This paper decomposes the adoption model described by Gartner in the following points. - A company strategic decision. - Look at social reality. - Analyze social networks. - Methodology adoption. - Deployment and extension in all departments of the company and the adaptation of human resources. - Selection and integration with traditional CRM platforms. - Analysis of monitoring tools for Social CRM. The proposed model has two objectives, firstly aims to provide insight into how CRM can influence business outcomes in the era of the social customer, and secondly, to provide administrators how investments and existing resources can be integrated CRM with new technologies and processes for developing capabilities that can increase business performance”.

Redes Sociais Pessoais e Mobilidade em Idosos

Objetivos: A investigação tem como objetivo geral analisar a associação entre a mobilidade nos idosos e as características estruturais, funcionais e relacionais-contextuais das suas redes sociais pessoais. Metodologia: No nosso estudo utilizámos o Instrumento de Análise da Rede Social Pessoal, IARSP, versão idosos (IARSP Idosos de Guadalupe & Vicente, 2012; Guadalupe, 2009), que permite caracterizar a rede social pessoal do individuo e uma questão do WHOQOL (OMS; Canavarro et al., 2006) para avaliar a perceção de mobilidade. Participantes: A amostra é constituída por 446 idosos com idades compreendidas entre os 65 anos e os 98 anos. Os participantes são na sua maioria do sexo feminino (63,9%; n = 285), casados (51,6%; n = 230) e com escolaridade (65,9%; n = 294). Resultados: Verifica-se que são os idosos do sexo feminino, os casados e com escolaridade, aqueles que apresentam uma média mais elevada de mobilidade percebida. Constata-se que existe uma maior proporção de idosos cuja mobilidade é “boa ou muito boa” (48,2%; n = 215) em comparação com os que têm uma mobilidade “nem boa nem má” (26,5%; n = 118) e com os que a mobilidade é “má ou muito má” (25,3%; n = 113). Quanto às características estruturais, os idosos que apresentam melhor mobilidade percebida têm uma média mais elevada na proporção das relações familiares nas redes (M = 77%), quanto às características funcionais, na companhia social (M = 2,37), apesar de não existirem diferenças significativas, e na reciprocidade de apoio (M = 3,53; p= 0,002), e consideram estar muito satisfeitos com a rede (M = 2,87, p= 0,059), quando tais características comparadas com as dos idosos com pior mobilidade. Verificam-se também diferenças entre as subamostras quer no apoio material e instrumental (M = 2,30; p = 0,013) e no apoio informativo (M = 2,44; p = 0,001), registando o grupo das pessoas com pior mobilidade as médias mais baixas. Quanto às características relacionais contextuais, na durabilidade das relações, os sujeitos com mobilidade “má ou muito má” apresentam uma média mais elevada (M = 42,41 anos; p = 0,025). Conclusão: Segundo a pior ou melhor mobilidade, é nas características funcionais que se assinalam as principais diferenças estatisticamente significativas, o que nos permitem afirmar uma associação entre mobilidade nos idosos e as relações interpessoais, pelo conteúdo das relações e pelo apoio que percecionam. Concluímos que os idosos que se consideram com melhor mobilidade apresentam, na generalidade, características de rede social mais positivas quando comparados com os que têm menor mobilidade percebida. /Objectives: The main goal of the research is to analyze the association between mobility in the elderly and the structural, functional and relational-contextual characteristics of their personal social networks. Methodology: In our study, we used the Social Personal Network Assessment Tool – IARSP , elderly version (IARSP-Idosos of Guadalupe Vicente, 2012; Guadalupe, 2009), enabling an individual's personal social network and a question of WHOQOL (WHO; Canavarro and such, 2006) to evaluate their perception of functionality of mobility. Participants: The study has 446 elderly participants aged between 65 years and 98 years. Participants are mostly female (63,9%; N = 285), married (51,6%; N = 230) and with education (65,9%; N = 294). Results: We found that older women, married and with education are those with a better mobility. It is noted that there is a greater proportion of elderly people whose mobility is "good or very good" (48.2%, n = 215) compared to those with a mobility "neither good nor bad" (26.5%, n = 118) and the mobility is "bad or very bad" (25.3%; n = 113). Regarding the structural characteristics, seniors who have better perceived mobility have a higher average in the proportion of family relationships in networks (M = 77%; p 0,331), and for the functional characteristics as social company (2, 37; p = 0,418), reciprocal support (3.53; p = 0.002), and satisfaction with their network (M = 2.87; p = 0.059) when these characteristics are compared with those of older people with poor mobility. Exist also statistically significant differences between subsamples either in the material and instrumental support (M = 2.30; p = 0.013) and informational support (M = 2.44; p = 0.001), recording the group of people with poorest mobility. For the relational and contextual characteristics, individuals with mobility "bad or very bad" have a higher mean durability of relationships (M = 42.41; p = 0.025). Conclusion: According to better or worse mobility, the functional characteristics indicates major differences between subsamples, that allow us to assert an association between mobility in the elderly and the content of interpersonal relationships, as well as the perception of support. We conclude that the elderly who consider themselves to have better mobility in general, have more positive social networking features when compared to those with lower perceived mobility.

Satisfação com a Vida e Redes Sociais Pessoais de Idosos

Objetivos: A investigação tem como objetivo geral analisar a associação entre a satisfação com a vida nos idosos e as características estruturais, funcionais e relacionais-contextuais das suas redes sociais pessoais. Metodologia: A recolha dos dados foi feita através de um questionário sociodemográfico, da Satisfaction With Life Scale – SWLS (Diener, 1985) que permite avaliar o grau de satisfação com a vida e também do Instrumento de Avaliação da Rede Social Pessoal – IARSP – Idosos (Guadalupe, 2009; Guadalupe & Vicente, 2012) que possibilita a análise das características das redes sociais pessoais dos idosos. Participantes: A amostra é constituída por 416 idosos com idades compreendidas entre os 65 anos e os 98 anos (M = 76,15; DP = 7,584). Os participantes são de ambos os sexos, mas na sua maioria do sexo feminino (63,7%; n = 265). A maioria dos sujeitos da amostra é casada (51,2%; n = 213) e tem escolaridade (64,2%; n = 267). Resultados: Verifica-se que são as mulheres idosas, os casados e com escolaridade que percebem uma maior satisfação com a vida. Constata-se que existe uma maior proporção de idosos satisfeitos com a vida (53,8%; n = 83) em comparação com os medianamente satisfeitos (26,2%; n = 109) e com os insatisfeitos (20%; n = 83). Os idosos que apresentam uma maior satisfação percebida têm uma média mais elevada na proporção das relações familiares nas redes (M = 80,67), no apoio emocional, material e instrumental, informativo, companhia social, e no acesso a novos vínculos, e consideram estar muito satisfeitos tanto com a rede (M = 2,92) como com o apoio que esta disponibiliza (M = 2,77). Conclusão: Verificaram-se associações estatisticamente significativas nas características estruturais da rede, no entanto são as características funcionais que atestam os principais resultados que nos permitem afirmar uma associação entre satisfação com a vida nos idosos e as relações interpessoais, pelo conteúdo das relações e pelo apoio que percecionam. Concluímos que os idosos que se consideram satisfeitos com a vida apresentavam, na generalidade, características de rede social mais positivas quando comparados com os que percebiam menor satisfação com a vida. / Objectives: The research has as main objective to analyze the association between life satisfaction in the elderly and the structural, functional and relational-contextual characteristics of their personal social networks. Methodology: The data collection was done through a sociodemographic questionnaire, the Satisfaction With Life Scale – SWLS (Diener, 1985) that evaluates the degree of satisfaction with life and also the Personal Social Network Analysis Tool – IARSP – Elderly (Guadalupe, 2009; Guadalupe & Vicente, 2012) for the analysis of personal social networks’ characteristics. Participants: The sample consisted of 416 elderly aged between 65 and 98 years (M = 76,15; SD = 7,584). Participants are both genders, but mostly female (63,7%; n =265). Most of the participants are married (51,2%; n = 213) and have education (64,2%; n = 267). Results: It is found that are the older women, married and with education that perceive a greater satisfaction with life. There is a greater proportion of elderly satisfied with the lives (53,8%; n = 83) compared to the moderately satisfied (26,2%; n = 109) and the unsatisfied (20%; n = 83). Seniors who have a higher satisfaction have a higher average in the proportion of family relationships in their networks (M = 80,67), emotional support, material and instrumental, informational, social companionship, and access to new bonds, and consider to be very satisfied with their social network (M = 2,92) and with the social support that it provides (M = 2,77). Conclusion: There were statistically significant associations in the structural characteristics of the network, however are the functional characteristics that allow us to state an association between life satisfaction in the elderly through interpersonal relationships, the content of relations and the support they perceive. We conclude that elderly people who consider themselves satisfied with life showed, in general, have more positive characteristics of social personal network when compared to those who perceive less satisfaction with life.

Elements of a methodology to assess the alignment of core-values in collaborative networks

Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.

Evaluation of follicular lymphoid depletion in the Bursa of Fabricius: an alternative methodology using digital image analysis and artificial neural networks

Fifty Bursa of Fabricius (BF) were examined by conventional optical microscopy and digital images were acquired and processed using Matlab® 6.5 software. The Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) was generated using Neuroshell® Classifier software and the optical and digital data were compared. The ANN was able to make a comparable classification of digital and optical scores. The use of ANN was able to classify correctly the majority of the follicles, reaching sensibility and specificity of 89% and 96%, respectively. When the follicles were scored and grouped in a binary fashion the sensibility increased to 90% and obtained the maximum value for the specificity of 92%. These results demonstrate that the use of digital image analysis and ANN is a useful tool for the pathological classification of the BF lymphoid depletion. In addition it provides objective results that allow measuring the dimension of the error in the diagnosis and classification therefore making comparison between databases feasible.

Power quality analysis applying a hybrid methodology with wavelet transforms and neural networks

A hybrid system to automatically detect, locate and classify disturbances affecting power quality in an electrical power system is presented in this paper. The disturbances characterized are events from an actual power distribution system simulated by the ATP (Alternative Transients Program) software. The hybrid approach introduced consists of two stages. In the first stage, the wavelet transform (WT) is used to detect disturbances in the system and to locate the time of their occurrence. When such an event is flagged, the second stage is triggered and various artificial neural networks (ANNs) are applied to classify the data measured during the disturbance(s). A computational logic using WTs and ANNs together with a graphical user interface (GU) between the algorithm and its end user is then implemented. The results obtained so far are promising and suggest that this approach could lead to a useful application in an actual distribution system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A systematic methodology to analyse the performance and design configurations of business interoperability in cooperative industrial networks

This thesis proposes a methodology for modelling business interoperability in a context of cooperative industrial networks. The purpose is to develop a methodology that enables the design of cooperative industrial network platforms that are able to deliver business interoperability and the analysis of its impact on the performance of these platforms. To achieve the proposed objective, two modelling tools have been employed: the Axiomatic Design Theory for the design of interoperable platforms; and Agent-Based Simulation for the analysis of the impact of business interoperability. The sequence of the application of the two modelling tools depends on the scenario under analysis, i.e. whether the cooperative industrial network platform exists or not. If the cooperative industrial network platform does not exist, the methodology suggests first the application of the Axiomatic Design Theory to design different configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms, and then the use of Agent-Based Simulation to analyse or predict the business interoperability and operational performance of the designed configurations. Otherwise, one should start by analysing the performance of the existing platform and based on the achieved results, decide whether it is necessary to redesign it or not. If the redesign is needed, simulation is once again used to predict the performance of the redesigned platform. To explain how those two modelling tools can be applied in practice, a theoretical modelling framework, a theoretical Axiomatic Design model and a theoretical Agent-Based Simulation model are proposed. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and/or to validate the proposed theoretical models, a case study regarding a Portuguese Reverse Logistics cooperative network (Valorpneu network) and a case study regarding a Portuguese construction project (Dam Baixo Sabor network) are presented. The findings of the application of the proposed methodology to these two case studies suggest that indeed the Axiomatic Design Theory can effectively contribute in the design of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and that Agent-Based Simulation provides an effective set of tools for analysing the impact of business interoperability on the performance of those platforms. However, these conclusions cannot be generalised as only two case studies have been carried out. In terms of relevance to theory, this is the first time that the network effect is addressed in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of networked companies and also the first time that a holistic approach is proposed to design interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms. Regarding the practical implications, the proposed methodology is intended to provide industrial managers a management tool that can guide them easily, and in practical and systematic way, in the design of configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and/or in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of their companies and the networks where their companies operate.

Evaluation of follicular lymphoid depletion in the Bursa of Fabricius: an alternative methodology using digital image analysis and artificial neural networks

Fifty Bursa of Fabricius (BF) were examined by conventional optical microscopy and digital images were acquired and processed using Matlab® 6.5 software. The Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) was generated using Neuroshell® Classifier software and the optical and digital data were compared. The ANN was able to make a comparable classification of digital and optical scores. The use of ANN was able to classify correctly the majority of the follicles, reaching sensibility and specificity of 89% and 96%, respectively. When the follicles were scored and grouped in a binary fashion the sensibility increased to 90% and obtained the maximum value for the specificity of 92%. These results demonstrate that the use of digital image analysis and ANN is a useful tool for the pathological classification of the BF lymphoid depletion. In addition it provides objective results that allow measuring the dimension of the error in the diagnosis and classification therefore making comparison between databases feasible.

A novel methodology for planning reliable wireless sensor networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have shown their potentials in various applications, which bring a lot of benefits to users from both research and industrial areas. For many setups, it is envisioned thatWSNs will consist of tens to hundreds of nodes that operate on small batteries. However due to the diversity of the deployed environments and resource constraints on radio communication, sensing ability and energy supply, it is a very challenging issue to plan optimized WSN topology and predict its performance before real deployment. During the network planning phase, the connectivity, coverage, cost, network longevity and service quality should all be considered. Therefore it requires designers coping with comprehensive and interdisciplinary knowledge, including networking, radio engineering, embedded system and so on, in order to efficiently construct a reliable WSN for any specific types of environment. Nowadays there is still a lack of the analysis and experiences to guide WSN designers to efficiently construct WSN topology successfully without many trials. Therefore, simulation is a feasible approach to the quantitative analysis of the performance of wireless sensor networks. However the existing planning algorithms and tools, to some extent, have serious limitations to practically design reliable WSN topology: Only a few of them tackle the 3D deployment issue, and an overwhelming number of works are proposed to place devices in 2D scheme. Without considering the full dimension, the impacts of environment to the performance of WSN are not completely studied, thus the values of evaluated metrics such as connectivity and sensing coverage are not sufficiently accurate to make proper decision. Even fewer planning methods model the sensing coverage and radio propagation by considering the realistic scenario where obstacles exist. Radio signals propagate with multi-path phenomenon in the real world, in which direct paths, reflected paths and diffracted paths contribute to the received signal strength. Besides, obstacles between the path of sensor and objects might block the sensing signals, thus create coverage hole in the application. None of the existing planning algorithms model the network longevity and packet delivery capability properly and practically. They often employ unilateral and unrealistic formulations. The optimization targets are often one-sided in the current works. Without comprehensive evaluation on the important metrics, the performance of planned WSNs can not be reliable and entirely optimized. Modeling of environment is usually time consuming and the cost is very high, while none of the current works figure out any method to model the 3D deployment environment efficiently and accurately. Therefore many researchers are trapped by this issue, and their algorithms can only be evaluated in the same scenario, without the possibility to test the robustness and feasibility for implementations in different environments. In this thesis, we propose a novel planning methodology and an intelligent WSN planning tool to assist WSN designers efficiently planning reliable WSNs. First of all, a new method is proposed to efficiently and automatically model the 3D indoor and outdoor environments. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the advantages of image understanding algorithm are applied to automatically reconstruct 3D outdoor and indoor scenarios for signal propagation and network planning purpose. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to accurately recognize different objects from the satellite images of the outdoor target regions and from the scanned floor plan of indoor area. Its mechanism offers users a flexibility to reconstruct different types of environment without any human interaction. Thereby it significantly reduces human efforts, cost and time spent on reconstructing a 3D geographic database and allows WSN designers concentrating on the planning issues. Secondly, an efficient ray-tracing engine is developed to accurately and practically model the radio propagation and sensing signal on the constructed 3D map. The engine contributes on efficiency and accuracy to the estimated results. By using image processing concepts, including the kd-tree space division algorithm and modified polar sweep algorithm, the rays are traced efficiently without detecting all the primitives in the scene. The radio propagation model iv is proposed, which emphasizes not only the materials of obstacles but also their locations along the signal path. The sensing signal of sensor nodes, which is sensitive to the obstacles, is benefit from the ray-tracing algorithm via obstacle detection. The performance of this modelling method is robust and accurate compared with conventional methods, and experimental results imply that this methodology is suitable for both outdoor urban scenes and indoor environments. Moreover, it can be applied to either GSM communication or ZigBee protocol by varying frequency parameter of the radio propagation model. Thirdly, WSN planning method is proposed to tackle the above mentioned challenges and efficiently deploy reliable WSNs. More metrics (connectivity, coverage, cost, lifetime, packet latency and packet drop rate) are modeled more practically compared with other works. Especially 3D ray tracing method is used to model the radio link and sensing signal which are sensitive to the obstruction of obstacles; network routing is constructed by using AODV protocol; the network longevity, packet delay and packet drop rate are obtained via simulating practical events in WSNet simulator, which to the best of our knowledge, is the first time that network simulator is involved in a planning algorithm. Moreover, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is developed to cater for the characteristics of WSNs. The capability of providing multiple optimized solutions simultaneously allows users making their own decisions accordingly, and the results are more comprehensively optimized compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms. iMOST is developed by integrating the introduced algorithms, to assist WSN designers efficiently planning reliable WSNs for different configurations. The abbreviated name iMOST stands for an Intelligent Multi-objective Optimization Sensor network planning Tool. iMOST contributes on: (1) Convenient operation with a user-friendly vision system; (2) Efficient and automatic 3D database reconstruction and fast 3D objects design for both indoor and outdoor environments; (3) It provides multiple multi-objective optimized 3D deployment solutions and allows users to configure the network properties, hence it can adapt to various WSN applications; (4) Deployment solutions in the 3D space and the corresponding evaluated performance are visually presented to users; and (5) The Node Placement Module of iMOST is available online as well as the source code of the other two rebuilt heuristics. Therefore WSN designers will be benefit from v this tool on efficiently constructing environment database, practically and efficiently planning reliable WSNs for both outdoor and indoor applications. With the open source codes, they are also able to compare their developed algorithms with ours to contribute to this academic field. Finally, solid real results are obtained for both indoor and outdoor WSN planning. Deployments have been realized for both indoor and outdoor environments based on the provided planning solutions. The measured results coincide well with the estimated results. The proposed planning algorithm is adaptable according to the WSN designer’s desirability and configuration, and it offers flexibility to plan small and large scale, indoor and outdoor 3D deployments. The thesis is organized in 7 chapters. In Chapter 1, WSN applications and motivations of this work are introduced, the state-of-the-art planning algorithms and tools are reviewed, challenges are stated out and the proposed methodology is briefly introduced. In Chapter 2, the proposed 3D environment reconstruction methodology is introduced and its performance is evaluated for both outdoor and indoor environment. The developed ray-tracing engine and proposed radio propagation modelling method are described in details in Chapter 3, their performances are evaluated in terms of computation efficiency and accuracy. Chapter 4 presents the modelling of important metrics of WSNs and the proposed multi-objective optimization planning algorithm, the performance is compared with the other state-of-the-art planning algorithms. The intelligent WSN planning tool iMOST is described in Chapter 5. RealWSN deployments are prosecuted based on the planned solutions for both indoor and outdoor scenarios, important data are measured and results are analysed in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 concludes the thesis and discusses about future works. vi Resumen en Castellano Las redes de sensores inalámbricas (en inglés Wireless Sensor Networks, WSNs) han demostrado su potencial en diversas aplicaciones que aportan una gran cantidad de beneficios para el campo de la investigación y de la industria. Para muchas configuraciones se prevé que las WSNs consistirán en decenas o cientos de nodos que funcionarán con baterías pequeñas. Sin embargo, debido a la diversidad de los ambientes para desplegar las redes y a las limitaciones de recursos en materia de comunicación de radio, capacidad de detección y suministro de energía, la planificación de la topología de la red y la predicción de su rendimiento es un tema muy difícil de tratar antes de la implementación real. Durante la fase de planificación del despliegue de la red se deben considerar aspectos como la conectividad, la cobertura, el coste, la longevidad de la red y la calidad del servicio. Por lo tanto, requiere de diseñadores con un amplio e interdisciplinario nivel de conocimiento que incluye la creación de redes, la ingeniería de radio y los sistemas embebidos entre otros, con el fin de construir de manera eficiente una WSN confiable para cualquier tipo de entorno. Hoy en día todavía hay una falta de análisis y experiencias que orienten a los diseñadores de WSN para construir las topologías WSN de manera eficiente sin realizar muchas pruebas. Por lo tanto, la simulación es un enfoque viable para el análisis cuantitativo del rendimiento de las redes de sensores inalámbricos. Sin embargo, los algoritmos y herramientas de planificación existentes tienen, en cierta medida, serias limitaciones para diseñar en la práctica una topología fiable de WSN: Sólo unos pocos abordan la cuestión del despliegue 3D mientras que existe una gran cantidad de trabajos que colocan los dispositivos en 2D. Si no se analiza la dimensión completa (3D), los efectos del entorno en el desempeño de WSN no se estudian por completo, por lo que los valores de los parámetros evaluados, como la conectividad y la cobertura de detección, no son lo suficientemente precisos para tomar la decisión correcta. Aún en menor medida los métodos de planificación modelan la cobertura de los sensores y la propagación de la señal de radio teniendo en cuenta un escenario realista donde existan obstáculos. Las señales de radio en el mundo real siguen una propagación multicamino, en la que los caminos directos, los caminos reflejados y los caminos difractados contribuyen a la intensidad de la señal recibida. Además, los obstáculos entre el recorrido del sensor y los objetos pueden bloquear las señales de detección y por lo tanto crear áreas sin cobertura en la aplicación. Ninguno de los algoritmos de planificación existentes modelan el tiempo de vida de la red y la capacidad de entrega de paquetes correctamente y prácticamente. A menudo se emplean formulaciones unilaterales y poco realistas. Los objetivos de optimización son a menudo tratados unilateralmente en los trabajos actuales. Sin una evaluación exhaustiva de los parámetros importantes, el rendimiento previsto de las redes inalámbricas de sensores no puede ser fiable y totalmente optimizado. Por lo general, el modelado del entorno conlleva mucho tiempo y tiene un coste muy alto, pero ninguno de los trabajos actuales propone algún método para modelar el entorno de despliegue 3D con eficiencia y precisión. Por lo tanto, muchos investigadores están limitados por este problema y sus algoritmos sólo se pueden evaluar en el mismo escenario, sin la posibilidad de probar la solidez y viabilidad para las implementaciones en diferentes entornos. En esta tesis, se propone una nueva metodología de planificación así como una herramienta inteligente de planificación de redes de sensores inalámbricas para ayudar a los diseñadores a planificar WSNs fiables de una manera eficiente. En primer lugar, se propone un nuevo método para modelar demanera eficiente y automática los ambientes interiores y exteriores en 3D. Según nuestros conocimientos hasta la fecha, esta es la primera vez que las ventajas del algoritmo de _image understanding_se aplican para reconstruir automáticamente los escenarios exteriores e interiores en 3D para analizar la propagación de la señal y viii la planificación de la red. Los resultados experimentales indican que la metodología propuesta es capaz de reconocer con precisión los diferentes objetos presentes en las imágenes satelitales de las regiones objetivo en el exterior y de la planta escaneada en el interior. Su mecanismo ofrece a los usuarios la flexibilidad para reconstruir los diferentes tipos de entornos sin ninguna interacción humana. De este modo se reduce considerablemente el esfuerzo humano, el coste y el tiempo invertido en la reconstrucción de una base de datos geográfica con información 3D, permitiendo así que los diseñadores se concentren en los temas de planificación. En segundo lugar, se ha desarrollado un motor de trazado de rayos (en inglés ray tracing) eficiente para modelar con precisión la propagación de la señal de radio y la señal de los sensores en el mapa 3D construido. El motor contribuye a la eficiencia y la precisión de los resultados estimados. Mediante el uso de los conceptos de procesamiento de imágenes, incluyendo el algoritmo del árbol kd para la división del espacio y el algoritmo _polar sweep_modificado, los rayos se trazan de manera eficiente sin la detección de todas las primitivas en la escena. El modelo de propagación de radio que se propone no sólo considera los materiales de los obstáculos, sino también su ubicación a lo largo de la ruta de señal. La señal de los sensores de los nodos, que es sensible a los obstáculos, se ve beneficiada por la detección de objetos llevada a cabo por el algoritmo de trazado de rayos. El rendimiento de este método de modelado es robusto y preciso en comparación con los métodos convencionales, y los resultados experimentales indican que esta metodología es adecuada tanto para escenas urbanas al aire libre como para ambientes interiores. Por otra parte, se puede aplicar a cualquier comunicación GSM o protocolo ZigBee mediante la variación de la frecuencia del modelo de propagación de radio. En tercer lugar, se propone un método de planificación de WSNs para hacer frente a los desafíos mencionados anteriormente y desplegar redes de sensores fiables de manera eficiente. Se modelan más parámetros (conectividad, cobertura, coste, tiempo de vida, la latencia de paquetes y tasa de caída de paquetes) en comparación con otros trabajos. Especialmente el método de trazado de rayos 3D se utiliza para modelar el enlace de radio y señal de los sensores que son sensibles a la obstrucción de obstáculos; el enrutamiento de la red se construye utilizando el protocolo AODV; la longevidad de la red, retardo de paquetes ix y tasa de abandono de paquetes se obtienen a través de la simulación de eventos prácticos en el simulador WSNet, y según nuestros conocimientos hasta la fecha, es la primera vez que simulador de red está implicado en un algoritmo de planificación. Por otra parte, se ha desarrollado un algoritmo de optimización multi-objetivo para satisfacer las características de las redes inalámbricas de sensores. La capacidad de proporcionar múltiples soluciones optimizadas de forma simultánea permite a los usuarios tomar sus propias decisiones en consecuencia, obteniendo mejores resultados en comparación con otros algoritmos del estado del arte. iMOST se desarrolla mediante la integración de los algoritmos presentados, para ayudar de forma eficiente a los diseñadores en la planificación de WSNs fiables para diferentes configuraciones. El nombre abreviado iMOST (Intelligent Multi-objective Optimization Sensor network planning Tool) representa una herramienta inteligente de planificación de redes de sensores con optimización multi-objetivo. iMOST contribuye en: (1) Operación conveniente con una interfaz de fácil uso, (2) Reconstrucción eficiente y automática de una base de datos con información 3D y diseño rápido de objetos 3D para ambientes interiores y exteriores, (3) Proporciona varias soluciones de despliegue optimizadas para los multi-objetivo en 3D y permite a los usuarios configurar las propiedades de red, por lo que puede adaptarse a diversas aplicaciones de WSN, (4) las soluciones de implementación en el espacio 3D y el correspondiente rendimiento evaluado se presentan visualmente a los usuarios, y (5) El _Node Placement Module_de iMOST está disponible en línea, así como el código fuente de las otras dos heurísticas de planificación. Por lo tanto los diseñadores WSN se beneficiarán de esta herramienta para la construcción eficiente de la base de datos con información del entorno, la planificación práctica y eficiente de WSNs fiables tanto para aplicaciones interiores y exteriores. Con los códigos fuente abiertos, son capaces de comparar sus algoritmos desarrollados con los nuestros para contribuir a este campo académico. Por último, se obtienen resultados reales sólidos tanto para la planificación de WSN en interiores y exteriores. Los despliegues se han realizado tanto para ambientes de interior y como para ambientes de exterior utilizando las soluciones de planificación propuestas. Los resultados medidos coinciden en gran medida con los resultados estimados. El algoritmo de planificación x propuesto se adapta convenientemente al deiseño de redes de sensores inalámbricas, y ofrece flexibilidad para planificar los despliegues 3D a pequeña y gran escala tanto en interiores como en exteriores. La tesis se estructura en 7 capítulos. En el Capítulo 1, se presentan las aplicaciones de WSN y motivaciones de este trabajo, se revisan los algoritmos y herramientas de planificación del estado del arte, se presentan los retos y se describe brevemente la metodología propuesta. En el Capítulo 2, se presenta la metodología de reconstrucción de entornos 3D propuesta y su rendimiento es evaluado tanto para espacios exteriores como para espacios interiores. El motor de trazado de rayos desarrollado y el método de modelado de propagación de radio propuesto se describen en detalle en el Capítulo 3, evaluándose en términos de eficiencia computacional y precisión. En el Capítulo 4 se presenta el modelado de los parámetros importantes de las WSNs y el algoritmo de planificación de optimización multi-objetivo propuesto, el rendimiento se compara con los otros algoritmos de planificación descritos en el estado del arte. La herramienta inteligente de planificación de redes de sensores inalámbricas, iMOST, se describe en el Capítulo 5. En el Capítulo 6 se llevan a cabo despliegues reales de acuerdo a las soluciones previstas para los escenarios interiores y exteriores, se miden los datos importantes y se analizan los resultados. En el Capítulo 7 se concluye la tesis y se discute acerca de los trabajos futuros.

How should the sustainability of the location of dry ports be measured? A proposed methodology using Bayesian networks and multi-criteria decision analysis

The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.

Application of Agent Technology for Fault Diagnosis of Telecommunication Networks

La presente tesis doctoral contribuye al problema del diagnóstico autonómico de fallos en redes de telecomunicación. En las redes de telecomunicación actuales, las operadoras realizan tareas de diagnóstico de forma manual. Dichas operaciones deben ser llevadas a cabo por ingenieros altamente cualificados que cada vez tienen más dificultades a la hora de gestionar debidamente el crecimiento exponencial de la red tanto en tamaño, complejidad y heterogeneidad. Además, el advenimiento del Internet del Futuro hace que la demanda de sistemas que simplifiquen y automaticen la gestión de las redes de telecomunicación se haya incrementado en los últimos años. Para extraer el conocimiento necesario para desarrollar las soluciones propuestas y facilitar su adopción por los operadores de red, se propone una metodología de pruebas de aceptación para sistemas multi-agente enfocada en simplificar la comunicación entre los diferentes grupos de trabajo involucrados en todo proyecto de desarrollo software: clientes y desarrolladores. Para contribuir a la solución del problema del diagnóstico autonómico de fallos, se propone una arquitectura de agente capaz de diagnosticar fallos en redes de telecomunicación de manera autónoma. Dicha arquitectura extiende el modelo de agente Belief-Desire- Intention (BDI) con diferentes modelos de diagnóstico que gestionan las diferentes sub-tareas del proceso. La arquitectura propuesta combina diferentes técnicas de razonamiento para alcanzar su propósito gracias a un modelo estructural de la red, que usa razonamiento basado en ontologías, y un modelo causal de fallos, que usa razonamiento Bayesiano para gestionar debidamente la incertidumbre del proceso de diagnóstico. Para asegurar la adecuación de la arquitectura propuesta en situaciones de gran complejidad y heterogeneidad, se propone un marco de argumentación que permite diagnosticar a agentes que estén ejecutando en dominios federados. Para la aplicación de este marco en un sistema multi-agente, se propone un protocolo de coordinación en el que los agentes dialogan hasta alcanzar una conclusión para un caso de diagnóstico concreto. Como trabajos futuros, se consideran la extensión de la arquitectura para abordar otros problemas de gestión como el auto-descubrimiento o la auto-optimización, el uso de técnicas de reputación dentro del marco de argumentación para mejorar la extensibilidad del sistema de diagnóstico en entornos federados y la aplicación de las arquitecturas propuestas en las arquitecturas de red emergentes, como SDN, que ofrecen mayor capacidad de interacción con la red. ABSTRACT This PhD thesis contributes to the problem of autonomic fault diagnosis of telecommunication networks. Nowadays, in telecommunication networks, operators perform manual diagnosis tasks. Those operations must be carried out by high skilled network engineers which have increasing difficulties to properly manage the growing of those networks, both in size, complexity and heterogeneity. Moreover, the advent of the Future Internet makes the demand of solutions which simplifies and automates the telecommunication network management has been increased in recent years. To collect the domain knowledge required to developed the proposed solutions and to simplify its adoption by the operators, an agile testing methodology is defined for multiagent systems. This methodology is focused on the communication gap between the different work groups involved in any software development project, stakeholders and developers. To contribute to overcoming the problem of autonomic fault diagnosis, an agent architecture for fault diagnosis of telecommunication networks is defined. That architecture extends the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agent model with different diagnostic models which handle the different subtasks of the process. The proposed architecture combines different reasoning techniques to achieve its objective using a structural model of the network, which uses ontology-based reasoning, and a causal model, which uses Bayesian reasoning to properly handle the uncertainty of the diagnosis process. To ensure the suitability of the proposed architecture in complex and heterogeneous environments, an argumentation framework is defined. This framework allows agents to perform fault diagnosis in federated domains. To apply this framework in a multi-agent system, a coordination protocol is defined. This protocol is used by agents to dialogue until a reliable conclusion for a specific diagnosis case is reached. Future work comprises the further extension of the agent architecture to approach other managements problems, such as self-discovery or self-optimisation; the application of reputation techniques in the argumentation framework to improve the extensibility of the diagnostic system in federated domains; and the application of the proposed agent architecture in emergent networking architectures, such as SDN, which offers new capabilities of control for the network.