Causation, complexity, and the concert: the pragmatics of causal explanation in international relations

A causal explanation provides information about the causal history of whatever is being explained. However, most causal histories extend back almost infinitely and can be described in almost infinite detail. Causal explanations therefore involve choices about which elements of causal histories to pick out. These choices are pragmatic: they reflect our explanatory interests. When adjudicating between competing causal explanations, we must therefore consider not only questions of epistemic adequacy (whether we have good grounds for identifying certain factors as causes) but also questions of pragmatic adequacy (whether the aspects of the causal history picked out are salient to our explanatory interests). Recognizing that causal explanations differ pragmatically as well as epistemically is crucial for identifying what is at stake in competing explanations of the relative peacefulness of the nineteenth-century Concert system. It is also crucial for understanding how explanations of past events can inform policy prescription.

Causal Warrant for Realism about Particle Physics

While scientific realism generally assumes that successful scientific explanations yield information about reality, realists also have to admit that not all information acquired in this way is equally well warranted. Some versions of scientific realism do this by saying that explanatory posits with which we have established some kind of causal contact are better warranted than those that merely appear in theoretical hypotheses. I first explicate this distinction by considering some general criteria that permit us to distinguish causal warrant from theoretical warrant. I then apply these criteria to a specific case from particle physics, claiming that scientific realism has to incorporate the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant if it is to be an adequate stance in the philosophy of particle physics.

Social Network Analysis and Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Their mutual benefit for the explanation of policy network structures

By switching the level of analysis and aggregating data from the micro-level of individual cases to the macro-level, quantitative data can be analysed within a more case-based approach. This paper presents such an approach in two steps: In a first step, it discusses the combination of Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in a sequential mixed-methods research design. In such a design, quantitative social network data on individual cases and their relations at the micro-level are used to describe the structure of the network that these cases constitute at the macro-level. Different network structures can then be compared by QCA. This strategy allows adding an element of potential causal explanation to SNA, while SNA-indicators allow for a systematic description of the cases to be compared by QCA. Because mixing methods can be a promising, but also a risky endeavour, the methodological part also discusses the possibility that underlying assumptions of both methods could clash. In a second step, the research design presented beforehand is applied to an empirical study of policy network structures in Swiss politics. Through a comparison of 11 policy networks, causal paths that lead to a conflictual or consensual policy network structure are identified and discussed. The analysis reveals that different theoretical factors matter and that multiple conjunctural causation is at work. Based on both the methodological discussion and the empirical application, it appears that a combination of SNA and QCA can represent a helpful methodological design for social science research and a possibility of using quantitative data with a more case-based approach.

Maladie d'Alzheimer: de la pathogénie aux perspectives cliniques [Alzheimer disease: from pathogenetic issues to clinical perspectives].

The aim of this article is a critical review of the main pathogenetic issues debated in Alzheimer disease, with a focus on the clinical perspectives that could derive from. The pertinence of the amyloid cascade hypothesis as a unique and causal explanation of cognitive deterioration is challenged in the light of recent therapeutic failures of clinical trials and increasing role of tau protein in clinical expression. The detection of very early and possibly preclinical stages of the disease emerges as a necessary condition for the efficacy of future amyloid or tau-oriented curative strategies. In this respect, the possibility of finding individual vulnerability markers--in the group of patients with "mild cognitive impairment" or even in cognitively intact subjects--represents a major challenge of the clinical research in this field.

Rationalité et embeddedness La sensibilité écologique des consommateurs à l’école des conventions

Selon une conception canonique de la rationalité, le comportement des consommateurs résulte de préférences données. En économie de l’environnement, la sensibilité écologique des consommateurs prend ainsi la forme d’une préférence verte intégrée à la fonction d’utilité. Le courant de l’économie des conventions relâche l’hypothèse de rationalité substantielle en insistant sur la pluralité des raisons d’agir pour les individus. En soulignant, à partir d’études empiriques, que le comportement des agents est irréductible à une explication causale unique (en termes de préférences), une conception conventionnaliste de la sensibilité écologique s’appuiera sur les valeurs revendiquées par les agents et les formes de justifications invoquées lorsqu’il est question d’actions concrètes en faveur de l’environnement.

The great asymmetry : America's closest allies in times of war

This dissertation focuses on military cooperation between the United States and its special allies. It argues that alliance expectations determine the level of military cooperation, while two intervening variables - the level of government cohesion and military capabilities - determine its implementation. This study also shows how secondary states deploy strategies to overcome power asymmetries through bilateral concessions, international organizations and by appealing to principle. The focus of the research is on special allies, as they have the most to gain or lose by going along with American plans. My contention is that secondary allies can rarely influence the dominant ally decisively, but they can act autonomously and resist to pressures exerted by the stronger alliance partner. The argument builds on three central claims. First, power asymmetries between allies translate into different assessments of international threats. Second, when disagreements over threats arise, the outcome of intra-alliance bargaining is not necessarily dictated by the preferences of the stronger power. Third, secondary states, as opposed to the dominant partner, face unique constraints when facing major foreign policy decisions, i.e. they face a trade-off between establishing a credible reputation as an alliance partner in a politically feasible way while minimizing domestic audience costs. To examine the theoretical puzzle presented by asymmetric military cooperation, I introduce a causal explanation that builds on neoclassical realism, to zone in on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables. My research makes a contribution to alliance theory and foreign policy decision-making by studying how special allies respond to American decisions in times of threat and how systemic constraints are channeled through state-level variables. To investigate the causal link between threat perception, alliance expectations and domestic constraints, this study relies on the method of structured focused comparison with three detailed case studies. The focus is on the initial decision made by special allies regarding whether or not to participle in joint mobilization with the United States. The decision-making process is presented from the perspective of secondary allied states and measures the explanatory factors that motivated the decision on military cooperation. The case studies are the UK, Canada and Australia’s response to the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq during the period of 2001 to 2003.

Autonomie personnelle et socialisation : l’approche hiérarchique de Frankfurt et la critique féministe

Ce mémoire est consacré à l’approche hiérarchique de Frankfurt, laquelle donne une explication de l’action autonome grâce à son modèle théorique à deux niveaux de désirs. Pour Frankfurt, l’action autonome est une action causée ou guidée par un désir qui est lui-même causé ou guidé par un désir de deuxième niveau, lequel est formé par un processus d’identification qui fait l’évaluation du désir de premier niveau. Dans un premier temps, j’étudie le développement de l’approche de Frankfurt afin de démontrer que celle-ci subit une modification essentielle : Frankfurt donne d’abord une explication causale de l’action autonome pour ensuite lui donner une explication structurale. Dans un deuxième temps, je m’arrête sur les différentes versions d’une critique adressée à son approche, la critique féministe de l’autonomie du processus d’identification. Dans un troisième temps, je présente une défense de l’approche de Frankfurt à l’égard de cette critique. Cette défense est fondée sur une interprétation du processus d’identification : je soutiens, à l’aide des développements du premier chapitre, que l’évaluation consiste en une évaluation de la conformité d’un désir à l’égard d’un modèle motivationnel, et que cette interprétation permet de répondre à la critique féministe précédemment traitée.

Educational value of different types of exhibits in an interactive science and technology center

This study analyzes the short-term consequences of visitors' use of different types of exhibits (i.e., "exemplars of phenomena" and "analogy based") together with the factors affecting visitors' understanding of and their evaluation of the use of such exhibits. One hundred and twenty five visitors (either alone or in groups) were observed during their interaction and interviewed immediately afterwards. Findings suggest that the type of exhibit constrains the nature of the understanding achieved. The use of analogical reasoning may lead to an intended causal explanation of an exhibit that is an exemplar of a phenomenon, but visitors often express misconceptions as a consequence of using this type of exhibit. Analogy-based exhibits are often not used as intended by the designer. This may be because visitors do not access the source domain intended; are unaware of the use of analogy per se (in particular, when the exhibit is of the subtype "only showing similarities between relationships"); only acquire fragmentary knowledge about the target; or fail to use analogical reasoning of which they were capable. Furthermore, exhibits related to everyday world situations are recognized to have an immediate educative value for visitors. Suggestions for enhancing the educative value of exhibits are proposed.

The neoliberal way of war: a critical analysis of contemporary British security in policy and practice.

Dominant paradigms of causal explanation for why and how Western liberal-democracies go to war in the post-Cold War era remain versions of the 'liberal peace' or 'democratic peace' thesis. Yet such explanations have been shown to rest upon deeply problematic epistemological and methodological assumptions. Of equal importance, however, is the failure of these dominant paradigms to account for the 'neoliberal revolution' that has gripped Western liberal-democracies since the 1970s. The transition from liberalism to neoliberalism remains neglected in analyses of the contemporary Western security constellation. Arguing that neoliberalism can be understood simultaneously through the Marxian concept of ideology and the Foucauldian concept of governmentality – that is, as a complementary set of 'ways of seeing' and 'ways of being' – the thesis goes on to analyse British security in policy and practice, considering it as an instantiation of a wider neoliberal way of war. In so doing, the thesis draws upon, but also challenges and develops, established critical discourse analytic methods, incorporating within its purview not only the textual data that is usually considered by discourse analysts, but also material practices of security. This analysis finds that contemporary British security policy is predicated on a neoliberal social ontology, morphology and morality – an ideology or 'way of seeing' – focused on the notion of a globalised 'network-market', and is aimed at rendering circulations through this network-market amenable to neoliberal techniques of government. It is further argued that security practices shaped by this ideology imperfectly and unevenly achieve the realisation of neoliberal 'ways of being' – especially modes of governing self and other or the 'conduct of conduct' – and the re-articulation of subjectivities in line with neoliberal principles of individualism, risk, responsibility and flexibility. The policy and practice of contemporary British 'security' is thus recontextualised as a component of a broader 'neoliberal way of war'.

A Sociological Study of the Political Subsystem in Yugoslavia

In this critical analysis of sociological studies of the political subsystem in Yugoslavia since the fall of communism Mr. Ilic examined the work of the majority of leading researchers of politics in the country between 1990 and 1996. Where the question of continuity was important, he also looked at previous research by the writers in question. His aim was to demonstrate the overall extent of existing research and at the same time to identify its limits and the social conditions which defined it. Particular areas examined included the problems of defining basic concepts and selecting the theoretically most relevant indicators; the sources of data including the types of authentic materials exploited; problems of research work (contacts, field control, etc.); problems of analysisl and finally the problems arising from different relations with the people who commission the research. In the first stage of the research, looking at methods of defining key terms, special attention was paid to the analysis of the most frequently used terms such as democracy, totalitarianism, the political left and right, and populism. Numerous weaknesses were noted in the analytic application of these terms. In studies of the possibilities of creating a democratic political system in Serbia and its possible forms (democracy of the majority or consensual democracy), the profound social division of Serbian society was neglected. The left-right distinction tends to be identified with the government-opposition relation, in the way of practical politics. The idea of populism was used to pass responsibility for the policy of war from the manipulator to the manipulated, while the concept of totalitarianism is used in a rather old-fashioned way, with echoes of the cold war. In general, the terminology used in the majority of recent research on the political subsystem in Yugoslavia is characterised by a special ideological style and by practical political material, rather than by developed theoretical effort. The second section of analysis considered the wider theoretical background of the research and focused on studies of the processes of transformation and transition in Yugoslav society, particularly the work of Mladen Lazic and Silvano Bolcic, who he sees as representing the most important and influential contemporary Yugoslav sociologists. Here Mr. Ilic showed that the meaning of empirical data is closely connected with the stratification schemes towards which they are oriented, so that the same data can have different meanings in shown through different schemes. He went on to show the observed theoretical frames in the context of wider ideological understanding of the authors' ideas and research. Here the emphasis was on the formalistic character of such notions as command economy and command work which were used in analysing the functioning and the collapse of communist society, although Mr. Ilic passed favourable judgement on the Lazic's critique of political over-determination in its various attempts to explain the disintegration of the communist political (sub)system. The next stage of the analysis was devoted to the problem of empirical identification of the observed phenomena. Here again the notions of the political left and right were of key importance. He sees two specific problems in using these notion in talking about Yugoslavia, the first being that the process of transition in the FR Yugoslavia has hardly begun. The communist government has in effect remained in power continuously since 1945, despite the introduction of a multi-party system in 1990. The process of privatisation of public property was interrupted at a very early stage and the results of this are evident on the structural level in the continuous weakening of the social status of the middle class and on the political level because the social structure and dominant form of property direct the majority of votes towards to communists in power. This has been combined with strong chauvinist confusion associated with the wars in Croatia and Bosnia, and these ideas were incorporated by all the relevant Yugoslav political parties, making it more difficult to differentiate between them empirically. In this context he quotes the situation of the stream of political scientists who emerged in the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade. During the time of the one-party regime, this faculty functioned as ideological support for official communist policy and its teachers were unable to develop views which differed from the official line, but rather treated all contrasting ideas in the same way, neglecting their differences. Following the introduction of a multi-party system, these authors changed their idea of a public enemy, but still retained an undifferentiated and theoretically undeveloped approach to the issue of the identification of political ideas. The fourth section of the work looked at problems of explanation in studying the political subsystem and the attempts at an adequate causal explanation of the triumph of Slobodan Milosevic's communists at four subsequent elections was identified as the key methodological problem. The main problem Mr. Ilic isolated here was the neglect of structural factors in explaining the voters' choice. He then went on to look at the way empirical evidence is collected and studied, pointing out many mistakes in planning and determining the samples used in surveys as well as in the scientifically incorrect use of results. He found these weaknesses particularly noticeable in the works of representatives of the so-called nationalistic orientation in Yugoslav sociology of politics, and he pointed out the practical political abuses which these methodological weaknesses made possible. He also identified similar types of mistakes in research by Serbian political parties made on the basis of party documentation and using methods of content analysis. He found various none-sided applications of survey data and looked at attempts to apply other sources of data (statistics, official party documents, various research results). Mr. Ilic concluded that there are two main sets of characteristics in modern Yugoslav sociological studies of political subsystems. There are a considerable number of surveys with ambitious aspirations to explain political phenomena, but at the same time there is a clear lack of a developed sociological theory of political (sub)systems. He feels that, in the absence of such theory, most researcher are over-ready to accept the theoretical solutions found for interpretation of political phenomena in other countries. He sees a need for a stronger methodological bases for future research, either 1) in complementary usage of different sources and ways of collecting data, or 2) in including more of a historical dimension in different attempts to explain the political subsystem in Yugoslavia.

Childhood sexual victimization: Risk factor for drug use and sexual risk behaviors

The purpose of this dissertation was to survey men in the Harris County Jail (HCJ) to establish a more valid estimate of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) prevalence in a jailed-based population; to assess whether inmates with a history of CSA were at greater risk for use of drugs and alcohol and engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors than those without histories of childhood sexual abuse. ^ The first study determined the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse among incarcerated males in a county jail. In this study, sixty-three percent of the subjects reported having been sexually abused. Sixty-one percent reported abuse pre-puberty and 10% reported abuse post puberty. In pre-puberty abuse the initiation of first abuse occurred at a mean age of 5.6 years (SD 5.096, range: 2–13 years). ^ The second study explored the association between inmates with histories of CSA as a risk factor for sexual risk behaviors. A history of sexual abuse did not appear to be associated with an elevated risk of sexual risk behaviors. ^ The third study explored a history of drug use and a history of CSA among the inmates. A chi-square test showed that the inmates who reported a history of CSA, was significantly greater for the following drugs: Marijuana (02), Crack (03), Heroin/Morphine (.03), Amphetamines/Speed (01), Downers/Barbiturates (.001), Methamphetamine/Crystal Meth (.001), Valium .02), LSD/Acid (.001), and Inhalants (.001), p < .05). Significance was not found in alcohol, tobacco, cocaine, Quaaludes and methadone. ^ The research from this study provides empirical data supporting previous research. The current data shows that incarcerated inmates have a high prevalence of childhood sexual abuse and drug use. Sexual victimization as a child does not appear to be associated with an elevated risk of unsafe sexual behaviors. However, men who used drugs were twice as likely to have engaged in unprotected sex with casual and regular partners, and rarely used condoms with paid sex. Although our study methods do not permit a causal explanation for this association, we believe it is of concern. Finally, data in this study shows that sexually abused children are likely candidates for adult criminal behavior. ^

Material and efficient cause interpretations of the formative model:resolving misunderstandings and clarifying conceptual language

This paper presents a causal explanation of formative variables that unpacks and clarifies the generally accepted idea that formative indicators are ‘causes’ of the focal formative variable. In doing this, we explore the recent paper by Diamantopoulos and Temme (AMS Review, 3(3), 160-171, 2013) and show that the latter misunderstand the stance of Lee, Cadogan, and Chamberlain (AMS Review, 3(1), 3-17, 2013; see also Cadogan, Lee, and Chamberlain, AMS Review, 3(1), 38-49, 2013). By drawing on the multiple ways that one can interpret the idea of causality within the MIMIC model, we then demonstrate how the continued defense of the MIMIC model as a tool to validate formative indicators and to identify formative variables in structural models is misguided. We also present unambiguous recommendations on how formative variables can be modelled in lieu of the formative MIMIC model.

Causalité et explication causale chez James Woodward

Certains philosophes affirment que les relations causales sont fondées sur les lois de la nature. Cette conception cadre mal avec la réalité des sciences biomédicales et des sciences humaines. Pour se rapprocher de la pratique réelle des diverses sciences, James Woodward propose une conception de la causalité et de l’explication causale fondée sur une relation beaucoup moins exigeante que celle de loi de la nature, qu’il appelle l’invariance. Le but de ce mémoire est de présenter le concept d’invariance et les autres concepts causaux qui s’y rattachent et, d’identifier certaines difficultés, dans le but de cerner l’usage approprié de cette famille de concepts. La conception causale de Woodward suppose que le but de la recherche des causes est pratique plutôt que simplement épistémique : il s’agit pour les agents de s’appuyer sur les causes pour modifier les phénomènes. Cette conception est également non-réductive; elle utilise des contrefactuels et reflète les méthodes expérimentales des diverses sciences. La cohérence de cette conception avec les généralisations causales réelles des sciences fait en sorte qu’elle abandonne l’objectif d’universalité rattaché à la notion de loi de la nature, en faveur d’un objectif de fiabilité temporaire. De plus, comme le critère d’invariance est peu exigeant, d’autres critères doivent lui être ajoutés pour identifier, parmi les relations causales (c’est-à-dire invariantes), les relations les plus susceptibles d’être employées pour modifier les phénomènes de façon fiable.