Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

A community based systems diagram of obesity causes

INTRODUCTION: Application of system thinking to the development, implementation and evaluation of childhood obesity prevention efforts represents the cutting edge of community-based prevention. We report on an approach to developing a system oriented community perspective on the causes of obesity. METHODS: Group model building sessions were conducted in a rural Australian community to address increasing childhood obesity. Stakeholders (n = 12) built a community model that progressed from connection circles to causal loop diagrams using scripts from the system dynamics literature. Participants began this work in identifying change over time in causes and effects of childhood obesity within their community. The initial causal loop diagram was then reviewed and elaborated by 50 community leaders over a full day session. RESULTS: The process created a causal loop diagram representing community perceptions of determinants and causes of obesity. The causal loop diagram can be broken down into four separate domains; social influences; fast food and junk food; participation in sport; and general physical activity. DISCUSSION: This causal loop diagram can provide the basis for community led planning of a prevention response that engages with multiple levels of existing settings and systems.

Modeling Of Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders In Chemical Process Industry In India

In this modern complex world, stress at work is found to be increasingly a common feature in day to day life. For the same reason, job stress is one of the active areas in occupational health and safety research for over last four decades and is continuing to attract researchers in academia and industry. Job stress in process industries is of concern due to its influence on process safety, and worker‘s safety and health. Safety in process (chemical and nuclear material) industry is of paramount importance, especially in a thickly populated country like India. Stress at job is the main vector in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders which in turn can affect the worker health and safety in process industries. In view of the above, the process industries should try to minimize the job stress in workers to ensure a safe and healthy working climate for the industry and the worker. This research is mainly aimed at assessing the influence of job stress in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders in chemical process industries in India

Functional and advanced functional and causal relationship diagrams for remote condition monitoring

Analysing the condition of an asset is a big challenge as there can be many aspects which can contribute to the overall functional reliability of the asset that have to be considered. In this paper we propose a two-step functional and causal relationship diagram (FCRD) to address this problem. In the first step, the FCRD is designed to facilitate the analysis of the condition of an asset by evaluating the interdependence (functional and causal) relationships between different components of the asset with the help of a relationship diagram. This is followed by the advanced FCRD (AFCRD) which refines the information from the FCRD into a comprehensive and manageable format. This new two-step methodology for asset condition monitoring is tested and validated for the case of a water treatment plant. © IMechE 2012.

NDIM achievements: massive, arbitrary tensor rank and N-loop insertions in Feynman integrals

One of the main difficulties in studying quantum field theory, in the perturbative regime, is the calculation of D-dimensional Feynman integrals. In general, one introduces the so-called Feynman parameters and, associated with them, the cumbersome parametric integrals. Solving these integrals beyond the one-loop level can be a difficult task. The negative-dimensional integration method (NDIM) is a technique whereby such a problem is dramatically reduced. We present the calculation of two-loop integrals in three different cases: scalar ones with three different masses, massless with arbitrary tensor rank, with and N insertions of a two-loop diagram.

Two-Point Function at Two Loops via Triangle Diagram Insertion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

All one-loop scalar vertices in the effective potential approach

Using the one-loop Coleman-Weinberg effective potential, we derive a general analytic expression for all the derivatives of the effective potential with respect to any number of classical scalar fields. The result is valid for a renormalisable theory in four dimensions with any number of scalars, fermions or gauge bosons. This result corresponds to the zero-external momentum contribution to a general one-loop diagram with N scalar external legs. We illustrate the use of the general result in two simple scalar singlet extensions of the Standard Model, to obtain the dominant contributions to the triple couplings of light scalar particles under the zero external momentum approximation.

A systemic view of innovation adoption in the Australian beef industry

Significant investments in developing technological innovations have been made in the Australian beef industry but with low adoption rates. By modelling the key variables and their interactions in the innovation adoption process, this research seeks to demonstrate the complexity and dynamics of the process. This research uses causal loop modelling and develops a holistic model of the current innovation adoption system in the Australian beef industry to show the complexity of dynamic interactions among multiple variables. It is suggested that innovation adoption is such an extremely complex issue, and we need to shift our views on this issue from a paradigm of linear thinking to systems thinking. Innovation adoption is more likely to be enhanced based on a full understanding of the complexity and dynamics of the system as a whole. The paper demonstrates to practitioners and developers of innovation the multiple variables and interactions impacting innovation adoption.

Ortho-positronium annihilation: steps toward computing the first order radiative corrections

The 0.2% experimental accuracy of the 1968 Beers and Hughes measurement of the annihilation lifetime of ortho-positronium motivates the attempt to compute the first order quantum electrodynamic corrections to this lifetime. The theoretical problems arising in this computation are here studied in detail up to the point of preparing the necessary computer programs and using them to carry out some of the less demanding steps -- but the computation has not yet been completed. Analytic evaluation of the contributing Feynman diagrams is superior to numerical evaluation, and for this process can be carried out with the aid of the Reduce algebra manipulation computer program.

The relation of the positronium decay rate to the electronpositron annihilation-in-flight amplitude is derived in detail, and it is shown that at threshold annihilation-in-flight, Coulomb divergences appear while infrared divergences vanish. The threshold Coulomb divergences in the amplitude cancel against like divergences in the modulating continuum wave function.

Using the lowest order diagrams of electron-positron annihilation into three photons as a test case, various pitfalls of computer algebraic manipulation are discussed along with ways of avoiding them. The computer manipulation of artificial polynomial expressions is preferable to the direct treatment of rational expressions, even though redundant variables may have to be introduced.

Special properties of the contributing Feynman diagrams are discussed, including the need to restore gauge invariance to the sum of the virtual photon-photon scattering box diagrams by means of a finite subtraction.

A systematic approach to the Feynman-Brown method of Decomposition of single loop diagram integrals with spin-related tensor numerators is developed in detail. This approach allows the Feynman-Brown method to be straightforwardly programmed in the Reduce algebra manipulation language.

The fundamental integrals needed in the wake of the application of the Feynman-Brown decomposition are exhibited and the methods which were used to evaluate them -- primarily dis persion techniques are briefly discussed.

Finally, it is pointed out that while the techniques discussed have permitted the computation of a fair number of the simpler integrals and diagrams contributing to the first order correction of the ortho-positronium annihilation rate, further progress with the more complicated diagrams and with the evaluation of traces is heavily contingent on obtaining access to adequate computer time and core capacity.

A structured modelling approach to simulating dynamic behaviours in complex organisations

This article reports a case study application of a systematic approach to modelling complex organisations, centred on simulation modelling (SM). The approach leads to populated instances of complementary model types, in ways that systematically capture, validate and facilitate various uses of organisational understandings, knowledge and data normally distributed amongst multiple knowledge holders. The model-driven approach to decision making enables improved manufacturing responsiveness. Literature on modelling technologies relevant to manufacturing systems organisation design and change is presented, as is literature on production planning and control. This provides a rationale for the development of a new modelling methodology which combines the use of enterprise, causal loop and SM. Subsequently, this article describes how in the case of a specific manufacturing enterprise the combined modelling techniques have informed the choice of alternative production planning and control policies. An example enterprise model of a capacitor manufacturing company is illustrated as derivative causal-loop models that structure and enable the design and use of a general purpose simulation model.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

Integrating design attributes, knowledge and uncertainty in aerospace sector

The delivery of integrated product and service solutions is growing in the aerospace industry, driven by the potential of increasing profits. Such solutions require a life cycle view at the design phase in order to support the delivery of the equipment. The influence of uncertainty associated with design for services is increasingly a challenge due to information and knowledge constraints. There is a lack of frameworks that aim to define and quantify relationship between information and knowledge with uncertainty. Driven by this gap, the paper presents a framework to illustrate the link between uncertainty and knowledge within the design context for services in the aerospace industry. The paper combines industrial interaction and literature review to initially define the design attributes, the associated knowledge requirements and the uncertainties experienced. The framework is then applied in three cases through development of causal loop models (CLMs), which are validated by industrial and academic experts. The concepts and inter-linkages are developed with the intention of developing a software prototype. Future recommendations are also included. © 2014 CIRP.

Confined site construction: A qualitative review of issues regarding health and safety on-site

The construction industry is inherently hazardous, with a significant number of accidents and incidents occurring, particularly on confined construction sites. This research identifies, clarifies and tabulates the various managerial health and safety issues encountered on confined construction sites, based on a qualitative approach, to aid in the management of the complex health and safety concerns. The methodology is based on qualitative research incorporating case studies, interviews, causal loop diagrams and mind mapping. The key findings in the managerial issues in the management of health and safety on confined construction sites can be summarised as follows; (1) A lack of space, (2) Increased management of site personnel, (3) Overcrowding of the work place. The implication for the industry is that due to the sustained development of urban centres on a global scale, coupled with the increasing complexity of architectural designs, the majority of on-site project management professionals are faced with the onerous task of completing often intricate designs within a limited spatial environment, under strict health and safety parameters. The value of such research is to aid management professionals successfully identify the various managerial issues highlighted, resulting in the successful management of health and safety on a confined construction site.

Challenges of UK/Irish Contractors Regarding Material Management and Logistics in Confined Site Construction

The aim of this paper is to identify the various managerial issues encountered by UK/Irish contractors in the management of materials in confined urban construction sites. Through extensive literature review, detailed interviews, case studies, cognitive mapping, causal loop diagrams, questionnaire survey and documenting severity indices, a comprehensive insight into the materials management concerns within a confined construction site environment is envisaged and portrayed. The leading issues highlighted are: that contractors’ material spatial requirements exceed available space, it is difficult to coordinate the storage of materials in line with the programme, location of the site entrance makes delivery of materials particularly difficult, it is difficult to store materials on-site due to the lack of space, and difficult to coordinate the storage requirements of the various sub-contractors. With the continued development of confined urban centres and the increasing high cost of materials, any marginal savings made on-site would translate into significant monetary savings at project completion. Such savings would give developers a distinct competitive advantage in this challenging economic climate. As on-site management professionals successfully identify, acknowledge and counteract the numerous issues illustrated, the successful management of materials on a confined urban construction site becomes attainable.

A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.