'Catastrophic failure' theories and disaster journalism : evaluating media explanations of the Black Saturday bushfires

 In recent decades, academic researchers of natural disasters and emergency management have developed a canonical literature on ‘catastrophe failure’ theories such as disaster responses from US emergency management services (Drabek, 2010; Quarantelli, 1998) and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant (Perrow, 1999). This article examines six influential theories from this field in an attempt to explore why Victoria’s disaster and emergency management response systems failed during Australia’s Black Saturday bushfires. How well, if at all, are these theories understood by journalists, disaster and emergency management planners, and policy-makers? In examining the Country Fire Authority’s response to the fires, as well as the media’s reportage of them, we use the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires as a theory-testing case study of failures in emergency management, preparation and planning. We conclude that journalists can learn important lessons from academics’ specialist knowledge about disaster and emergency management responses.

Adiabatic shear localization: occurrence, theories, and applications

Optimal maintenance policy for equipment subject to random deterioration and random failure A modern control theory approach.

The stochastic version of Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied to determine an optimal maintenance policy of equipment subject to random deterioration. The deterioration of the equipment with age is modelled as a random process. Next the model is generalized to include random catastrophic failure of the equipment. The optimal maintenance policy is derived for two special probability distributions of time to failure of the equipment, namely, exponential and Weibull distributions Both the salvage value and deterioration rate of the equipment are treated as state variables and the maintenance as a control variable. The result is illustrated by an example

Material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composites under impulsive shear loading

The material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composite under impulsive shear loading are investigated in this paper. Both experimental and analytical studies were performed. The shear strength of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite and A356.0 aluminum alloy at high strain rate were measured with a modified split Hopkinson torsional bar technique. The results indicated that the carbon fibers did not improve the shear strength of aluminum matrix if the fiber orientation aligned with the shear loading axis. The microscopic inspection of the fractured surface showed a multi-scale zigzag feature which implied a complicated shear failure mechanism in the composite. In addition to testing, the micromechanical stress field in the composite was analyzed by the generalized Eshelby equivalent method (GEEM). The influence of cracking in matrix on the micromechanical stress field was investigated as well. The results showed that the stress distribution in the composite is quite nonhomogeneous and very high shear stress concentrations are found in some regions in the matrix. The high shear stress concentration in the matrix induces tensile cracking at 45 degrees to the shear direction. This in turn aggravates the stress concentration at the fiber/matrix interface and finally leads to a catastrophic failure in the composite. From the correlation between the analysis and experimental results, the shear failure mechanism of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite can be elucidated qualitatively.

Catastrophic Rupture Induced Damage Coalescence in Heterogeneous Brittle Media

In heterogeneous brittle media, the evolution of damage is strongly influenced by the multiscale coupling effect. To better understand this effect, we perform a detailed investigation of the damage evolution, with particular attention focused on the catastrophe transition. We use an adaptive multiscale finite-element model (MFEM) to simulate the damage evolution and the catastrophic failure of heterogeneous brittle media. Both plane stress and plane strain cases are investigated for a heterogeneous medium whose initial shear strength follows the Weibull distribution. Damage is induced through the application of the Coulomb failure criterion to each element, and the element mesh is refined where the failure criterion is met. We found that as damage accumulates, there is a stronger and stronger nonlinear increase in stress and the stress redistribution distance. The coupling of the dynamic stress redistribution and the heterogeneity at different scales result in an inverse cascade of damage cluster size, which represents rapid coalescence of damage at the catastrophe transition.

Catastrophic Rupture Induced Damage Coalescence in Heterogeneous Brittle Media

In heterogeneous brittle media, the evolution of damage is strongly influenced by the multiscale coupling effect. To better understand this effect, we perform a detailed investigation of the damage evolution, with particular attention focused on the catastrophe transition. We use an adaptive multiscale finite-element model (MFEM) to simulate the damage evolution and the catastrophic failure of heterogeneous brittle media. Both plane stress and plane strain cases are investigated for a heterogeneous medium whose initial shear strength follows the Weibull distribution. Damage is induced through the application of the Coulomb failure criterion to each element, and the element mesh is refined where the failure criterion is met. We found that as damage accumulates, there is a stronger and stronger nonlinear increase in stress and the stress redistribution distance. The coupling of the dynamic stress redistribution and the heterogeneity at different scales result in an inverse cascade of damage cluster size, which represents rapid coalescence of damage at the catastrophe transition.

Catastrophic rupture of heterogeneous brittle materials under impact loading

The catastrophic failure of heterogeneous brittle materials under impact loading is not fully understood. To describe the catastrophic failure behavior of heterogeneous brittle materials under impact loading, an elasto-statistical-brittle (ESB) model is proposed in this paper. The ESB model characterizes the disordered inhomogeneity of material at mesoscopic scale with the statistical description of the shear strength of mesoscopic units. If the applied shear stress reaches the strength, the mesoscopic unit fails, which causes degradation in the shear modulus of the material. With a simplified ESB model, the failure wave in brittle material under uni-axial compression is analyzed. It is shown that the failure wave is a wave of strain or particle velocity resulted from the catastrophic fracture in an elastically stressed brittle media when the impact velocity reaches a critical value. In addition, the failure wave causes an increase in the rear surface velocity, which agrees well with experimental observations. The critical condition to generate failure wave and the speed of failure wave are also obtained.

Novel corrosion sensor based on carbon nanotube composites for structural health monitoring

Bridges are important infrastructures of all nations and are required for transportation of goods as well as human. A catastrophic failure can result in loss of lives and enormous financial hardship to the nation. Hence, there is an urgent need to monitor our infrastructures to prolong their life span, at the same time catering for heavier and faster moving traffics. Although various kinds of sensors are now available to monitor the health of the structures due to corrosion, they do not provide permanent and long term measurements. This paper investigates the fabrication of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) based composite sensors for structural health monitoring. The CNTs, a key material in nanotechnology has aroused great interest in the research community due to their remarkable mechanical, electrochemical, piezoresistive and other physical properties. Multi-wall CNT (MWCNT)/Nafion composite sensors were fabricated to evaluate their electrical properties when subjected to chemical solutions, to simulate a chemical reaction due to corrosion and real life corrosion experimental tests. The electrical resistance of the sensor electrode was dramatically changed due to corrosion. The novel sensor is expected to effectively detect corrosion in structures based on the measurement of electrical impedances of the CNT composite.

Carbon nanotube composite sensor for structural health monitoring of bridge structures

Bridges are important infrastructures of all nations and are required for transportation of goods as well as human. A catastrophic failure can result in loss of lives and enormous financial hardship to the nation. Although various kinds of sensors are now available to monitor the health of the structures due to corrosion, they do not provide permanent and long term measurements. This paper investigates the fabrication of Carbon Nanotube (CNT) based composite sensors for corrosion detection of structures. Multi-wall CNT (MWCNT)/Nafion composite sensors were fabricated to evaluate their electrical properties for corrosion detection. The test specimens were subjected to real life corrosion experimental tests and the results confirm that the electrical resistance of the sensor electrode was dramatically changed due to corrosion.

Fault detection of slow speed rolling element bearing with noise removal techniques

Rolling Element Bearings (REBs) are vital components in rotating machineries for providing rotating motion. In slow speed rotating machines, bearings are normally subjected to heavy static loads and a catastrophic failure can cause enormous disruption to production and human safety. Due to its low operating speed the impact energy generated by the rotating elements on the defective components is not sufficient to produce a detectable vibration response. This is further aggravated by the inability of general measuring instruments to detect and process the weak signals at the initiation of the defect accurately. Furthermore, the weak signals are often corrupted by background noise. This is a serious problem faced by maintenance engineers today and the inability to detect an incipient failure of the machine can significantly increases the risk of functional failure and costly downtime. This paper presents the application of noise removal techniques for enhancing the detection capability for slow speed REB condition monitoring. Blind deconvolution (BD) and adaptive line enhancer (ALE) are compared to evaluate their performance in enhancing the source signal with consequential removal of background noise. In the experimental study, incipient defects were seeded on a number of roller bearings and the signals were acquired using acoustic emission (AE) sensor. Kurtosis and modified peak ratio (mPR) were used to determine the detectability of signal corrupted by noise.

Numerical investigation of mechanical and thermal dynamic properties of the industrial transformer

Industrial transformer is one of the most critical assets in the power and heavy industry. Failures of transformers can cause enormous losses. The poor joints of the electrical circuit on transformers can cause overheating and results in stress concentration on the structure which is the major cause of catastrophic failure. Few researches have been focused on the mechanical properties of industrial transformers under overheating thermal conditions. In this paper, both mechanical and thermal properties of industrial transformers are jointly investigated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Dynamic response analysis is conducted on a modified transformer FEA model, and the computational results are compared with experimental results from literature to validate this simulation model. Based on the FEA model, thermal stress is calculated under different temperature conditions. These analysis results can provide insights to the understanding of the failure of transformers due to overheating, therefore are significant to assess winding fault, especially to the manufacturing and maintenance of large transformers.

Prediction of solid block masonry prism compressive strength using FE model

Masonry strength is dependent upon characteristics of the masonry unit,the mortar and the bond between them. Empirical formulae as well as analytical and finite element (FE) models have been developed to predict structural behaviour of masonry. This paper is focused on developing a three dimensional non-linear FE model based on micro-modelling approach to predict masonry prism compressive strength and crack pattern. The proposed FE model uses multi-linear stress-strain relationships to model the non-linear behaviour of solid masonry unit and the mortar. Willam-Warnke's five parameter failure theory developed for modelling the tri-axial behaviour of concrete has been adopted to model the failure of masonry materials. The post failure regime has been modelled by applying orthotropic constitutive equations based on the smeared crack approach. Compressive strength of the masonry prism predicted by the proposed FE model has been compared with experimental values as well as the values predicted by other failure theories and Eurocode formula. The crack pattern predicted by the FE model shows vertical splitting cracks in the prism. The FE model predicts the ultimate failure compressive stress close to 85 of the mean experimental compressive strength value.

Influence of the roughness of aggregate surface on the interface bond strength

An experimental investigation on the bond strength of the interface between mortar and aggregate is reported. Composite compact specimens were used for applying Mode I and Mode 11 loading effects. The influence of the type of mortar and type of aggregate and its roughness on the bond strength of the interface has been studied. It has been observed that the bond strength of the interface in tension is significantly low, though the mortars exhibited higher strength. The highest tensile bond strength values have been observed with rough concrete surface with M-13 mortar. The bond strength of the interface in Mode I load depends on the type of aggregate surface and its roughness, and the type of mortar, The bond strength of the interface between mortar M-13 cast against rough concrete in direct tension seems to be about one third of the strength of the mortar. However, it is about 1/20th to 1/10th with the mortar M-12 in sandwiched composite specimens. The bond strength of the interface in shear (Mode IT) significantly increases as the roughness and the phase angle of the aggregate surface increase. The strength of mortar on the interface bond strength has been very significant. The sandwiched composite specimens show relatively low bond strength in Mode I loading. The behavior of the interface in both Mode I and Mode 11 loading effects has been brittle, indicating catastrophic failure. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection and Evaluation of Impact damage in CFRP Laminates Using Ultrasound C-Scan and IR Thermography

Advanced composite structural components made up of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) used in aerospace structures such as in Fuselage, Leading & Trailing edges of wing and tail, Flaps, Elevator, Rudder and entire wing structures encounter most critical type of damage induced by low velocity impact (<10 m/s) loads. Tool dropped during maintenance & service,and hailstone impacts on runways are common and unavoidable low-velocity impacts. These lowvelocity impacts induce defects such as delaminations, matrix cracking and debonding in the layered material, which are sub-surface in nature and are barely visible on the surface known as Barely Visible Impact Damage (BVID). These damages may grow under service load, leading to catastrophic failure of the structure. Hence detection, evaluation and characterization of these types of damage is of major concern in aerospace industries as the life of the component depends on the size and shape of the damage.In this paper, details of experimental investigations carried out and results obtained from a low-velocity impact of 30 Joules corresponding to the hailstone impact on the wing surface,simulated on the 6 mm CFRP laminates using instrumented drop-weight impact testing machine are presented. The Ultrasound C-scan and Infrared thermography imaging techniques were utilized extensively to detect, evaluate and characterize impact damage across the thickness of the laminates.

Fractals and Scaling in Fracture Induced by Microcrack Coalescence

A numerical model is proposed to simulate fracture induced by the coalescence of numerous microcracks, in which the condition for coalescence between two randomly nucleated microcracks is determined in terms of a load-sharing principle. The results of the simulation show that, as the number density of nucleated microcracks increases, stochastic coalescence first occurs followed by a small fluctuation, and finally a newly nucleated microcrack triggers a cascade coalescence of microcracks resulting in catastrophic failure. The fracture profiles exhibit self-affine fractal characteristics with a universal roughness exponent, but the critical damage threshold is sensitive to details of the model. The spatiotemporal distribution of nucleated microcracks in the vicinity of critical failure follows a power-law behaviour, which implies that the microcrack system may evolve to a critical state.