Trends in stroke incidence, mortality and case fatality rates in Joinville, Brazil: 1995-2006

Background: Studying stroke rates in a whole community is a rational way to assess the quality of patient care and primary prevention. However, there are few studies of trends in stroke rates worldwide and none in Brazil. Objective: Established study methods were used to define the rates for first ever stroke in a defined population in Brazil compared with similar data obtained and published in 1995. Methods: All stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during 2005-2006 were prospectively ascertained. Crude incidence and mortality rates were determined, and age adjusted rates and 30 day case fatality were calculated and compared with the 1995 data. Results: Of the 1323 stroke cases registered, 759 were first ever strokes. The incidence rate per 100 000 was 105.4 (95% CI 98.0 to 113.2), mortality rate was 23.9 (95% CI 20.4 to 27.8) and the 30 day case fatality was 19.1%. Compared with the 1995 data, we found that the incidence had decreased by 27%, mortality decreased by 37% and the 30 day case fatality decreased by 28%. Conclusions: Using defined criteria we showed that in an industrial southern Brazilian city, stroke rates are similar to those from developed countries. A significant decrease in stroke rates over the past decade was also found, suggesting an improvement in primary prevention and inpatient care of stroke patients in Joinville.

Early stroke case-fatality rates in three hospital registries in the Northeast and Southeast of Brazil

Few studies have addressed early cerebrovascular lethality in Brazil. Objective: To evaluate 10 and 28-day stroke case-fatality rates in three hospitals in three Brazilian cities. Methods: We described the stroke registries in Sao Paulo, Joao Pessoa, and Natal. Results: Out of a total of 962 first-ever events (mean age, 68.1 years-old; 53% men), 83.6% (804 cases) were classified as ischemic and 16.4% (158) as hemorrhagic stroke. Overall, the case-fatality rates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for hemorrhagic stroke events were higher than for ischemic events, both at 10 (12.3%; 95% CI 7.2-17.4 versus 7.0%; 95% CI 5.3-8.8) and at 28 days (19.8%; 95% CI 13.6-26.0 versus 11.1%; 95% CI 8.9-13.3). Conclusions: We did not find any substantial differences in early case-fatality rates according to stroke subtypes, when comparing the three centers.

Early and One-Year Stroke Case Fatality in Sao Paulo, Brazil: Applying the World Health Organization's Stroke STEPS

Case fatality rate is considered a main determinant of stroke mortality trends. We applied the World Health Organization's Stroke STEPS to identify case fatality rates in a community hospital in Brazil. We evaluated all patients with first-ever stroke seeking acute care at the hospital's emergency ward between April 2006 and December 2008 to verify early and late case fatality according to stroke subtype. We used years of formal education as a surrogate for socioeconomic status. Of 430 first-ever stroke events, 365 (84.9%) were ischemic and 65 (15.1%) were intracerebral hemorrhage. After 1 year, we adjudicated 108 deaths (86 ischemic; 22 hemorrhagic). Age-adjusted case fatality rates for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage were 6.0% v 19.8% at 10 days, 10.6% v 22.1% at 28 days, 17.6% v 29.1% at 6 months, and 21.0% v 31.5% at 1 year. Illiteracy or no formal education was a predictor of death at 6 months (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-13.91) and 1 year (OR, 4.21; 95% CI, 1.45-12.28) in patients with ischemic stroke, as well as at 6 months (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.17-8.70) and 1 year (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.30-8.45) for all stroke patients. Other variables, including previous cardiovascular risk factors and acute medical care, did not change this association to a statistically significant degree. In conclusion, case fatality, particularly up to 6 months, was higher in hemorrhagic stroke, and lack of formal education was associated with increased stroke mortality.

Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

Dynamics of case-fatalilty rates of recurrent thromboembolism and major bleeding in patients treated for venous thromboembolism.

In patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), assessment of the risk of fatal recurrent VTE and fatal bleeding during anticoagulation may help to guide intensity and duration of therapy. We aimed to provide estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of recurrent VTE and major bleeding during anticoagulation in a 'real life' population, and to assess these outcomes according to the initial presentation of VTE and its etiology. The study included 41,826 patients with confirmed VTE from the RIETE registry who received different durations of anticoagulation (mean 7.8 ± 0.6 months). During 27,110 patient-years, the CFR was 12.1% (95% CI, 10.2-14.2) for recurrent VTE, and 19.7% (95% CI, 17.4-22.1) for major bleeding. During the first three months of anticoagulant therapy, the CFR of recurrent VTE was 16.1% (95% CI, 13.6-18.9), compared to 2.0% (95% CI, 0-4.2) beyond this period. The CFR of bleeding was 20.2% (95% CI, 17.5-23.1) during the first three months, compared to 18.2% (95% CI, 14.0-23.2) beyond this period. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE (18.5%; 95% CI, 15.3-22.1) than in those with DVT (6.3%; 95% CI, 4.5-8.6), and in patients with provoked VTE (16.3%; 95% CI, 13.6-19.4) than in those with unprovoked VTE (5.5%; 95% CI, 3.5-8.0). In conclusion, the CFR of recurrent VTE decreased over time during anticoagulation, while the CFR of major bleeding remained stable. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE and in those with provoked VTE.

Non-Cardiac Surgery in Developing Countries: Epidemiological Aspects and Economical Opportunities - The Case of Brazil

Background: Worldwide distribution of surgical interventions is unequal. Developed countries account for the majority of surgeries and information about non-cardiac operations in developing countries is scarce. The purpose of our study was to describe the epidemiological data of non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in the last years. Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study that investigated the time window from 1995 to 2007. We collected information from DATASUS, a national public health system database. The following variables were studied: number of surgeries, in-hospital expenses, blood transfusion related costs, length of stay and case fatality rates. The results were presented as sum, average and percentage. The trend analysis was performed by linear regression model. There were 32,659,513 non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in thirteen years. An increment of 20.42% was observed in the number of surgeries in this period and nowadays nearly 3 million operations are performed annually. The cost of these procedures has increased tremendously in the last years. The increment of surgical cost was almost 200%. The total expenses related to surgical hospitalizations were more than $10 billion in all these years. The yearly cost of surgical procedures to public health system was more than $1.27 billion for all surgical hospitalizations, and in average, U$445.24 per surgical procedure. The total cost of blood transfusion was near $98 million in all years and annually approximately $10 million were spent in perioperative transfusion. The surgical mortality had an increment of 31.11% in the period. Actually, in 2007, the surgical mortality in Brazil was 1.77%. All the variables had a significant increment along the studied period: r square (r(2)) = 0.447 for the number of surgeries (P = 0.012), r(2) = 0.439 for in-hospital expenses (P = 0.014) and r(2) = 0.907 for surgical mortality (P = 0.0055). Conclusion: The volume of surgical procedures has increased substantially in Brazil through the past years. The expenditure related to these procedures and its mortality has also increased as the number of operations. Better planning of public health resource and strategies of investment are needed to supply the crescent demand of surgery in Brazil.

Case fatality after an acute cardiac event: the effect of smoking and alcohol consumption

The objective of this study was to use a population-based register of acute cardiac events to investigate the association between survival after an acute event and history of smoking and alcohol consumption. The population was all residents of the Lower Hunter Region of Australia aged 25 to 69 years who suffered myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death between 1986 and 1994. Among 10,170 events, 2504 resulted in death within 28 days. After adjusting for sex, age and medical history, current smokers had a similar risk of dying after an acute cardiac event to never-smokers [odds ratio (OR)=1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94-1.29]. People who consumed more than 8 alcoholic drinks per day on more than 2 days per week (OR=1.93, 95% CI 1.39-2.69) and former moderate to heavy drinkers (OR=4.59, 95% CI 3.65-5.76) were more likely to die than people who were nondrinkers. The results of this large community study, suggesting no effect of smoking on case fatality and an increased risk of death after an acute cardiac event for heavy drinkers and former moderate to heavy drinkers, highlight the importance of a population view of case fatality. These results can also shed some light on reasons for the paradoxical results from clinical trials. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease in Brazil, 2004 - 2006

OBJECTIVE: To estimate hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease based on the Brazilian Hospital Information System (SIH). METHODS: Descriptive study based on the Hospital Information System of Brazilian National Health System data from January 2004 to December 2006: number of hospitalizations and deaths for pneumococcal meningitis, pneumococcal sepsis, pneumococcal pneumonia and Streptococcus pneumoniae as the cause of diseases reported in Brazil. Data from the 2003 Brazilian National Household Survey were used to estimate events in the private sector. Pneumococcal meningitis cases and deaths reported to the Notifiable Diseases Information System during the study period were also analyzed. RESULTS: Pneumococcal disease accounted for 34,217 hospitalizations in the Brazilian National Health System (0.1% of all hospitalizations in the public sector). Pneumococcal pneumonia accounted for 64.8% of these hospitalizations. The age distribution of the estimated hospitalization rates for pneumococcal disease showed a "U"-shape curve with the highest rates seen in children under one (110 to 136.9 per 100,000 children annually). The highest hospital case-fatality rates were seen among the elderly, and for sepsis and meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: PD is a major public health problem in Brazil. The analysis based on the SIH can provide an important input to pneumococcal disease surveillance and the impact assessment of immunization programs.

The association between serum potassium at hospital admission and the case-fatality rate of leptospirosis in men

Severe leptospirosis affects predominantly males and presents a high susceptibility to hypokalemic acute renal failure. As hypokalemia and hyperkalemia induce severe complications, it is important to evaluate if the initial serum potassium is an independent risk factor for death in leptospirosis. The medical records of 1016 patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of leptospirosis were reviewed. The analysis was restricted to 442, according to the following criteria: male, 18 years or older, information about death or hospital discharge and recorded values of serum potassium, serum creatinine and duration of symptoms at admission. Potassium values lower than 3.5 mEq/L (hypoK), 3.5-5 mEq/L (normoK) and above 5 mEq/L (hyperK) were detected in 180, 245 and 17 patients, respectively. The death rate increased with serum potassium: 11.1% in the hypoK, 14.7% in the normoK and 47.1% in the hyperK group (p = 0.002). In a logistic regression model (normoK as referent), including age, creatinine and duration of symptoms, hypoK was not associated with increased death rate (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; p > 0.1). On the other hand, hyperK showed a significant association with increased risk of death (OR = 3.95, p = 0.021). In conclusion, in this sample of men with leptospirosis initial serum potassium was positively and independently correlated with the risk of in-hospital death.

Comparative study of the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric and adult patients of different age groups

The main objective was to compare the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric (< 19 years) and adult (>19 years) patients, taking into account gender, renal function, duration of symptoms and jaundice. Medical records of 1016 patients were reviewed. Comparative analysis was restricted to 840 patients (100 pediatric, 740 adults) with recorded information on the variables included in the analysis. Among these patients 81.7% were male and 91.5% were icteric. The case-fatality rate of leptospirosis was 14.4%. The odds of death adjusted for gender, jaundice, duration of symptoms, serum urea and serum creatinine were almost four times higher for the adult than for the pediatric group (odds ratio (OR) = 3.94; 95% confidence interval = 1.19-13.03, p = 0.029). Among adults, increased age was also significantly and independently associated with increased risk of death (p < 0.01). Older patients were also more often treated by dialysis. In conclusion, the data suggest that the in-hospital case fatality rate of leptospirosis is higher for adults than for children and adolescents, even after taking into account the effects of several potential risk factors of death. Among adults, older age was also strongly and independently associated with higher risk of death.

Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

Penetrating injuries of the thorax and abdomen: Type of medical-care institution and case fatality

The purpose of this study was to determine, for penetrating injuries (gunshot, stab) of the chest/abdomen, the impact on fatality of treatment in trauma centers and shock trauma units compared with general hospitals. Medical records of all cases of penetrating injury limited to chest/abdomen and admitted to and discharged from 7 study facilities in Baltimore city 1979-1980 (n = 581) were studied: 4 general hospitals (n = 241), 2 area-wide trauma centers (n = 298), and a shock trauma unit (n = 42). Emergency center and transferred cases were not studied. Anatomical injury severity, measured by modified Injury Severity Score (mISS), was a significant prognostic factor for death, as were cardiovascular shock (SBP $\le$ 70), injury type (gunshot vs stab), and ambulance/helicopter (vs other) transport. All deaths occurred in cases with two or more prognostic factors. Unadjusted relative risks of death compared with general hospitals were 4.3 (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 8.4) for shock trauma and 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) for trauma centers. Controlling for prognostic factors by logistic regression resulted in these relative risks: shock trauma 4.0 (0.7, 22.2), and trauma centers 0.8 (0.2, 3.2). Factors significantly associated with increased risk had the following relative risks by multiple logistic regression: SBP $\le$ 70 (RR = 40.7 (11.0, 148.7)), highest mISS (42 (7.7, 227)), gunshot (8.4 (2.1, 32.6)), and ambulance/helicopter transport (17.2 (1.3, 228.1)). Controlling for age, race, and gender did not alter results significantly. Actual deaths compared with deaths predicted from a multivariable model of general-hospital cases showed 3.7 more than predicted deaths in shock trauma (SMR = 1.6 (0.8, 2.9)) and 0.7 more than predicted deaths in area-wide trauma centers (SMR = 1.05 (0.6, 1.7)). Selection bias due to exclusion of transfers and emergency center cases, and residual confounding due to insufficient injury information, may account for persistence of adjusted high case fatality in shock trauma. Studying all cases prospectively, including emergency center and transferred cases, is needed. ^

Crash, injury, and fatality rates by time of day and day of week.

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