An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Small cluster in cyber physical systems: network topology, interdependence and cascading failures

In cyber physical system (CPS), computational resources and physical resources are strongly correlated and mutually dependent. Cascading failures occur between coupled networks, cause the system more fragile than single network. Besides widely used metric giant component, we study small cluster (small component) in interdependent networks after cascading failures occur. We first introduce an overview on how small clusters distribute in various single networks. Then we propose a percolation theory based mathematical method to study how small clusters be affected by the interdependence between two coupled networks. We prove that the upper bounds exist for both the fraction and the number of operating small clusters. Without loss of generality, we apply both synthetic network and real network data in simulation to study small clusters under different interdependence models and network topologies. The extensive simulations highlight our findings: except the giant component, considerable proportion of small clusters exists, with the remaining part fragmenting to very tiny pieces or even massive isolated single vertex; no matter how the two networks are tightly coupled, an upper bound exists for the size of small clusters. We also discover that the interdependent small-world networks generally have the highest fractions of operating small clusters. Three attack strategies are compared: Inter Degree Priority Attack, Intra Degree Priority Attack and Random Attack. We observe that the fraction of functioning small clusters keeps stable and is independent from the attack strategies.

A five level inverter scheme with common mode volatge elimination by cascading conventional two level and three level NPC inverters for an induction motor drive

Common-mode voltage generated by the PWM inverter causes shaft voltage, bearing current and ground leakage current in induction motor drive system, resulting in an early motor failure. This paper presents a common-mode elimination scheme for a five-level inverter with reduced power circuit complexity. The proposed scheme is realised by cascading conventional two-level and conventional NPC three-level inverters in conjunction with an open-end winding three-phase induction motor drive and the common-mode voltage (CMV) elimination is achieved by using only switching states that result in zero CMV, for the entire modulation range.

Comparison of 3D finite element analysis derived stiffness and BMD to determine the failure load of the excised proximal femur

Introduction: Bone mineral density (BMD) is currently the preferred surrogate for bone strength in clinical practice. Finite element analysis (FEA) is a computer simulation technique that can predict the deformation of a structure when a load is applied, providing a measure of stiffness (Nmm−1). Finite element analysis of X-ray images (3D-FEXI) is a FEA technique whose analysis is derived froma single 2D radiographic image. Methods: 18 excised human femora had previously been quantitative computed tomography scanned, from which 2D BMD-equivalent radiographic images were derived, and mechanically tested to failure in a stance-loading configuration. A 3D proximal femur shape was generated from each 2D radiographic image and used to construct 3D-FEA models. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2%) to predict failure load was 54.5% for BMD and 80.4% for 3D-FEXI. Conclusions: This ex vivo study demonstrates that 3D-FEXI derived from a conventional 2D radiographic image has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy of failure load assessment of the proximal femur compared with that currently achieved with BMD. This approach may be readily extended to routine clinical BMD images derived by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IPEM. All rights reserved

Social change grant-making : a failure of innovation?

Focusing primarily on Anglophone countries, this article begins by looking at the changing environment of foundations, the pressures on foundations and some responses to those pressures. It then focuses on the potential of a structural change approach - often known as 'social change' or 'social justice' grant-making - as a solution to some of the modern dilemmas of foundations, and considers why this approach has, with some exceptions, gained relatively little support. This raises the wider issues of why and how resource-independent, endowed foundations change when conventional explanations of organisational change do not easily apply. Researching a 'lack' is clearly difficult; this article adopts an analytic perspective, examining the characteristics of the structural change approach as a mimetic model, and draws on the work of Rogers (2003) on the characteristics required for the successful diffusion of innovations. It suggests that the structural change approach suffers from some fundamental weaknesses as a mimetic model, failing to meet some key characteristics for the diffusion of innovations. In conclusion, the article looks at conditions under which these weaknesses may be overcome.

Prognosis of bearing failure based on health state estimation

This paper proposes a new prognosis model based on the technique for health state estimation of machines for accurate assessment of the remnant life. For the evaluation of health stages of machines, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed to obtain the probability of each health state. Two case studies involving bearing failures were used to validate the proposed model. Simulated bearing failure data and experimental data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used to train and test the model. The result obtained is very encouraging and shows that the proposed prognostic model produces promising results and has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction.