Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

European lobsters (Homarus gammarus) captured around the rocky island of Helgoland (German Bight, North Sea) from 2005 to 2015 - A mark-recapture program -

European lobsters were captured by employees of the Marine Biological Station and local fishermen from the rocky subtidal zone around the island of Helgoland (North Sea, 54°11.3'N, 7°54.0'E) and from the Helgoland Deep Trench, located south west of the island. The animals were captured by pots, traps, trawl and divers. All measured lobsters were tagged and released. A tagged lobster was classified by the absence or presence of colour tag and/or T-bar tag. Data of lobsters contains capture date, fresh weight, carapace lengths, sex and the information if lobsters were egg-bearing and tagged. Furthermore, data of commercial landed lobsters are included.

Data analysis model selection for estimating local population size of the Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) in the Azores

27th Annual Conference of the European Cetacean Society. Setúbal, Portugal, 8-10 April 2013.

Thermal biology, activity, and population parameters of Cnemidophorus vacariensis (Squamata, Teiidae), a lizard endemic to southern Brazil

We investigated the following aspects of the biology of a population of Cnemidophorus vacariensis Feltrim & Lema, 2000 during the four seasons: thermal biology, relationship with the thermal environment, daily and seasonal activity, population structure and growth rate. Cnemidophorus vacariensis is restricted to rocky outcrops of the "campos de cima da serra" grasslands on the Araucaria Plateau, southern Brazil, and is currently listed as regionally and nationally threatened with extinction. Data were collected from October 2004 through September 2007 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Sampling was conducted randomly from 08:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. The capture-mark-recapture method was employed. The lizards were captured by hand, and their cloacal temperature, sex, snout-ventral length (SVL), mass, and the temperature of their microhabitat (substrate temperature and air temperature) were recorded. Individuals were then marked by toe-clipping and released at the site of capture. Body temperatures were obtained for 175 individuals, activity data for 96 individuals, and data on population structure and growth for 59 individuals. All data were obtained monthly, at different times of the day. Cnemidophorus vacariensis average body temperature was 23.84ºC, ranging between 9.6 and 38.2ºC. Temperatures ranged between 21 and 29ºC. The correlation between external heat sources, substrate and air were positive and significant and there was a greater correlation between lizard's temperature and the temperature of the substrate (tigmothermic species). The relatively low body temperatures of individuals are associated with the climate of their environment (altitude up to 1,400 m), with large variations in temperature throughout the day and the year, and low temperatures in winter. The average body temperature observed for C. vacariensis was low when compared with that of phylogenetically related species, suggesting that the thermal biology of this species reflects adaptations to the temperate region where it lives. The monthly rates of activity of lizards were related to monthly variations in the ambient temperatures. Our data suggest that the daily and seasonal activity of C. vacariensis result from the interaction between two factors: changes in the environment temperature and the relationship between individuals and their thermal environment. The population structure of C. vacariensis varied throughout the study period, with maximum biomass in January and maximum density in February (recruitment period). The sex ratio diverged from the expected 1:1. The growth analysis showed a negative relationship between the growth rate of individuals and the SVL, revealing that young individuals grow faster than adults, a typical pattern for short-lived species. The population studied showed a seasonal and cyclical variation associated with the reproductive cycle. The life strategy of C. vacariensis seems to include adaptations to the seasonal variations in temperature, typical of its environment.

Is tagging with visual implant elastomer a reliable technique for marking earthworms?

Visual implant elastomer (VIE) has recently been employed to investigate different aspects of earthworm ecology. However, a number of fundamental questions relating to the detection and positioning of the tag, its persistence and potential effects on earthworms remain unknown. Seven earthworm species belonging to three ecological groupings, with different pigmentation and burrowing behaviour, were tagged using different coloured VIE. External inspection after two days, one week and 1, 10 and 27 months were followed by preservation, dissection and internal inspection. Tags could be seen in living specimens to 27 months, and dissection revealed that in most cases they were lodged in the coelomic cavity, held in place by septa. However, over longer time periods (more than two years), the chlorogogenous tissue tended to bind to the tags and made external observation increasingly difficult. Migration of the VIE material towards the posterior of the earthworm and potential loss of the tag were only observed on rare occasions, and a recovery rate in excess of 98% was recorded. By introducing a reasonable amount of VIE into segments, just after the clitellum, this technique can become a valuable tool in earthworm ecology and life history studies, particularly in short-medium term laboratory and field experiments.

Monitoring butterfly abundance: beyond Pollard walks.

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.

Phylogeography and dispersal in the velvet gecko (Oedura lesueurii), and potential implications for conservation of an endangered snake (Hoplocephalus bungaroides).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To conserve critically endangered predators, we also need to conserve the prey species upon which they depend. Velvet geckos (Oedura lesueurii) are a primary prey for the endangered broad-headed snake (Hoplocephalus bungaroides), which is restricted to sandstone habitats in southeastern Australia. We sequenced the ND2 gene from 179 velvet geckos, to clarify the lizards' phylogeographic history and landscape genetics. We also analysed 260 records from a longterm (3-year) capture-mark-recapture program at three sites, to evaluate dispersal rates of geckos as a function of locality, sex and body size. RESULTS: The genetic analyses revealed three ancient lineages in the north, south and centre of the species' current range. Estimates of gene flow suggest low dispersal rates, constrained by the availability of contiguous rocky habitat. Mark-recapture records confirm that these lizards are highly sedentary, with most animals moving < 30 m from their original capture site even over multi-year periods. CONCLUSION: The low vagility of these lizards suggests that they will be slow to colonise vacant habitat patches; and hence, efforts to restore degraded habitats for broad-headed snakes may need to include translocation of lizards.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Movimento de borboletas frugívoras e conectividade funcional em uma paisagem de Mata Atlântica

An organisms movement within and between habitats is an essential trait of life history, one that shapes population dynamics, communities and ecosystems in space and time. Since the ability to perceive and react to specific conditions varies greatly between organisms, different movement patterns are generated. These, in turn, will reflect the way species persist in the original habitat and surrounding patches. This study evaluated patterns of movement of frugivorous butterflies in order to estimate the connectivity of a landscape mosaic in an area of Atlantic Forest. For this purpose, we used the capture-mark-recapture method on butterflies trapped with fermented fruit bait in three distinct habitats. The first represents a typical Atlantic forest fragment, while the other two represent man-made matrix habitats. One contains a coconut plantation and the other a plantation of the exotic Acacia mangium species. Five traps were randomly placed in each landscape unit in areas of 40 x 40m. Using recapture data and relating it to distance between captures and habitat structure, I found that movement frequencies, both within and between landscape units were different for the analyzed species, suggesting that they do not interpret and react to the landscape in the same way. Thus this study was able to measure landscape functional connectivity. For most species, the exchange between forest and coconut plantations occurred with low frequency compared to exchanges between the forest and acacia plantations, which share more structural similarities. This seems to indicate that a matrix that is more similar to patches of native vegetation can shelter species, permit their movement and, consequently, contribute to the landscape connectivity

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models