Bayesian analysis of an inverse Gaussian correlated frailty model

In survival analysis frailty is often used to model heterogeneity between individuals or correlation within clusters. Typically frailty is taken to be a continuous random effect, yielding a continuous mixture distribution for survival times. A Bayesian analysis of a correlated frailty model is discussed in the context of inverse Gaussian frailty. An MCMC approach is adopted and the deviance information criterion is used to compare models. As an illustration of the approach a bivariate data set of corneal graft survival times is analysed. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on Robustness of Correlated Frailty Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classifi cation: 62J12.

A frailty modeling approach for parental effects in animal breeding

Survival models involving frailties are commonly applied in studies where correlated event time data arise due to natural or artificial clustering. In this paper we present an application of such models in the animal breeding field. Specifically, a mixed survival model with a multivariate correlated frailty term is proposed for the analysis of data from over 3611 Brazilian Nellore cattle. The primary aim is to evaluate parental genetic effects on the trait length in days that their progeny need to gain a commercially specified standard weight gain. This trait is not measured directly but can be estimated from growth data. Results point to the importance of genetic effects and suggest that these models constitute a valuable data analysis tool for beef cattle breeding.

Understanding Red Blood Cell Parameters In The Context Of The Frailty Phenotype: Interpretations Of The Fibra (frailty In Brazilian Seniors) Study.

Frailty and anemia in the elderly appear to share a common pathophysiology associated with chronic inflammatory processes. This study uses an analytical, cross-sectional, population-based methodology to investigate the probable relationships between frailty, red blood cell parameters and inflammatory markers in 255 community-dwelling elders aged 65 years or older. The frailty phenotype was assessed by non-intentional weight loss, fatigue, low grip strength, low energy expenditure and reduced gait speed. Blood sample analyses were performed to determine hemoglobin level, hematocrit and reticulocyte count, as well as the inflammatory variables IL-6, IL-1ra and hsCRP. In the first multivariate analysis (model I), considering only the erythroid parameters, Hb concentration was a significant variable for both general frailty status and weight loss: a 1.0g/dL drop in serum Hb concentration represented a 2.02-fold increase (CI 1.12-3.63) in an individual's chance of being frail. In the second analysis (model II), which also included inflammatory cytokine levels, hsCRP was independently selected as a significant variable. Each additional year of age represented a 1.21-fold increase in the chance of being frail, and each 1-unit increase in serum hsCRP represented a 3.64-fold increase in the chance of having the frailty phenotype. In model II reticulocyte counts were associated with weight loss and reduced metabolic expenditure criteria. Our findings suggest that reduced Hb concentration, reduced RetAbs count and elevated serum hsCRP levels should be considered components of frailty, which in turn is correlated with sarcopenia, as evidenced by weight loss.

Portuguese version of the Tilburg Frailty Indicator: Transcultural adaptation and psychometric validation

Artigo científico disponível actualmente em Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)

Effect of Alzheimer caregiving stress and age on frailty markers interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, and D-dimer

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), and D-dimer belong to the biological alterations of the "frailty syndrome," defining increased vulnerability for diseases and mortality with aging. We hypothesized that, compatible with premature frailty, chronic stress and age are related in predicting inflammation and coagulation activity in Alzheimer caregivers. METHODS: Plasma IL-6, CRP, and D-dimer levels were measured in 170 individuals (mean age 73 +/- 9 years; 116 caregivers, 54 noncaregiving controls). Demographic factors, diseases, drugs, and lifestyle variables potentially affecting inflammation and coagulation were obtained by history and adjusted for as covariates in statistical analyses. RESULTS: Caregivers had higher mean levels of IL-6 (1.38 +/- 1.42 vs 1.00 +/- 0.92 pg/mL, p =.032) and of D-dimer (723 +/- 530 vs 471 +/- 211 ng/mL, p <.001) than controls had. CRP levels were similar between groups (p =.44). The relationship between caregiver status and D-dimer was independent of covariates (p =.037) but affected by role overload. Age accounted for much of the relationship with IL-6. After controlling for covariates, the interaction between caregiver status and age was significant for D-dimer (beta =.20, p =.029) and of borderline significance for IL-6 (beta =.17, p =.090). Post hoc regression analyses indicated that, among caregivers, age was significantly correlated with both D-dimer (beta =.50, p <.001) and IL-6 (beta =.38, p =.001). Among controls, however, no significant relationship was observed between age and either D-dimer or IL-6. CONCLUSIONS: The interaction between caregiving status and age for D-dimer and IL-6 suggests the possibility that older caregivers could be at risk of a more rapid transition to the frailty syndrome and clinical manifestations of cardiovascular diseases.

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Relationship Between Lower-limb Muscle Strength And Functional Independence Among Elderly People According To Frailty Criteria: A Cross-sectional Study.

Muscle strength and functional independence are considered to be determinants of frailty levels among elderly people. The aim here was to compare lower-limb muscle strength (LLMS) with functional independence in relation to sex, age and number of frailty criteria, and to ascertain the influence of these variables on elderly outpatients' independence. Quantitative cross-sectional study, in a tertiary hospital. The study was conducted on 150 elderly outpatients of both sexes who were in a cognitive condition allowing oral communication, between October 2005 and October 2007. The following instruments were used: five-times sit-to-stand test (FTSST), Functional Independence Measurement (FIM) and Lawton's Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL). Descriptive, comparative, multivariate, univariate and Cronbach alpha analyses were performed. The mean time taken in the FTSST was 21.7 seconds; the mean score for FIM was 82.2 and for IADL was 21.2; 44.7% of the subjects presented 1-2 frailty criteria and 55.3% > 3 criteria. There was a significant association between LLMS and functional independence in relation to the number of frailty criteria, without homogeneity regarding sex and age. Functional independence showed significant influence from sex and LLMS. Elderly individuals with 1 or 2 frailty criteria presented greater independence in all FTSST scores. The subjects with higher LLMS presented better functional independence.

Cluster Analysis To Identify Elderly People's Profiles: A Healthcare Strategy Based On Frailty Characteristics.

The new social panorama resulting from aging of the Brazilian population is leading to significant transformations within healthcare. Through the cluster analysis strategy, it was sought to describe the specific care demands of the elderly population, using frailty components. Cross-sectional study based on reviewing medical records, conducted in the geriatric outpatient clinic, Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Ninety-eight elderly users of this clinic were evaluated using cluster analysis and instruments for assessing their overall geriatric status and frailty characteristics. The variables that most strongly influenced the formation of clusters were age, functional capacities, cognitive capacity, presence of comorbidities and number of medications used. Three main groups of elderly people could be identified: one with good cognitive and functional performance but with high prevalence of comorbidities (mean age 77.9 years, cognitive impairment in 28.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities); a second with more advanced age, greater cognitive impairment and greater dependence (mean age 88.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 84.6% and mean of 7.1 comorbidities); and a third younger group with poor cognitive performance and greater number of comorbidities but functionally independent (mean age 78.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 89.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities). These data characterize the profile of this population and can be used as the basis for developing efficient strategies aimed at diminishing functional dependence, poor self-rated health and impaired quality of life.

Health-related And Socio-demographic Factors Associated With Frailty In The Elderly: A Systematic Literature Review.

Frailty is a syndrome that leads to practical harm in the lives of elders, since it is related to increased risk of dependency, falls, hospitalization, institutionalization, and death. The objective of this systematic review was to identify the socio-demographic, psycho-behavioral, health-related, nutritional, and lifestyle factors associated with frailty in the elderly. A total of 4,183 studies published from 2001 to 2013 were detected in the databases, and 182 complete articles were selected. After a comprehensive reading and application of selection criteria, 35 eligible articles remained for analysis. The main factors associated with frailty were: age, female gender, black race/color, schooling, income, cardiovascular diseases, number of comorbidities/diseases, functional incapacity, poor self-rated health, depressive symptoms, cognitive function, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol use. Knowledge of the complexity of determinants of frailty can assist the formulation of measures for prevention and early intervention, thereby contributing to better quality of life for the elderly.

A Longitudinal Evaluation Of Anti-fviii Antibodies Demonstrated Igg4 Subclass Is Mainly Correlated With High-titre Inhibitor In Haemophilia A Patients.

The development of inhibitory antibodies against factor VIII (FVIII) (inhibitor) is the major complication in haemophilia A patients. The FVIII-binding antibodies development comprises a polyclonal immunoglobulin (Ig) G response. Recent studies showed strong correlation between the presence of neutralizing anti-FVIII antibodies (inhibitors) and IgG4 subclass. The aim of this study was to evaluate anti-FVIII IgG subclasses in haemophilia A patients with inhibitor both in a cross-sectional and in a longitudinal analysis. Inhibitors were determined by Nijmegen-Bethesda assay. Anti-FVIII IgG subclasses were performed by ELISA, and samples from 20 healthy individuals were used to validate the test. We studied 25 haemophilia A patients with inhibitor, previously treated exclusively with plasma-derived FVIII concentrates or bypassing agents. The IgG subclasses distributions were evaluated in two groups of patients classified according to inhibitor response. IgG1 and IgG4 antibodies were most prominent in haemophilia A patients with inhibitors when compared with IgG2 and IgG3. This study reports for the first time the behaviour of FVIII-binding IgG1 and IgG4 subclasses in a longitudinal analysis, in a clinical setting, of high-response inhibitor haemophilia A patients, showing the correlation of IgG4 and the inhibitor titres. In spite of being considered a non-pathologic antibody subclass with anti-inflammatory properties in other situations, IgG4 is correlated with the presence of high-titre inhibitor in the haemophilia setting. The comprehension of the IgG4 role in immune response may be crucial to establish the process for designing specific tolerance to FVIII.

The frequency of CD127(low) expressing CD4(+)CD25(high) T regulatory cells is inversely correlated with human T lymphotrophic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) proviral load in HTLV-1-infection and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

Background: CD4(+)CD25(high) regulatory T (T(Reg)) cells modulate antigen-specific T cell responses, and can suppress anti-viral immunity. In HTLV-1 infection, a selective decrease in the function of T(Reg) cell mediated HTLV-1-tax inhibition of FOXP3 expression has been described. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and phenotype of T(Reg) cells in HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers and in HTLV-1-associated neurological disease (HAM/TSP) patients, and to correlate with measures of T cell activation. Results: We were able to confirm that HTLV-1 drives activation, spontaneous IFN gamma production, and proliferation of CD4+ T cells. We also observed a significantly lower proportion of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells (CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells) in subjects with HAM/TSP patients compared to healthy controls. Ki-67 expression was negatively correlated to the frequency of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells in HAM/TSP only, although Ki-67 expression was inversely correlated with the percentage of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells in healthy control subjects. Finally, the proportion of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells correlated inversely with HTLV-1 proviral load. Conclusion: Taken together, the results suggest that T(Reg) cells may be subverted in HAM/TSP patients, which could explain the marked cellular activation, spontaneous cytokine production, and proliferation of CD4(+) T cells, in particular those expressing the CD25(high)CD127(low) phenotype. T(Reg) cells represent a potential target for therapeutic intervention for patients with HTLV-1-related neurological diseases.

249 TP53 mutation has high prevalence and is correlated with larger and poorly differentiated HCC in Brazilian patients

Background: Ser-249 TP53 mutation (249(Ser)) is a molecular evidence for aflatoxin-related carcinogenesis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and it is frequent in some African and Asian regions, but it is unusual in Western countries. HBV has been claimed to add a synergic effect on genesis of this particular mutation with aflatoxin. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of 249Ser mutation in HCC from patients in Brazil. Methods: We studied 74 HCC formalin fixed paraffin blocks samples of patients whom underwent surgical resection in Brazil. 249Ser mutation was analyzed by RFLP and DNA sequencing. HBV DNA presence was determined by Real-Time PCR. Results: 249Ser mutation was found in 21/74 (28%) samples while HBV DNA was detected in 13/74 (16%). 249Ser mutation was detected in 21/74 samples by RFLP assay, of which 14 were confirmed by 249Ser mutant-specific PCR, and 12 by nucleic acid sequencing. All HCC cases with p53-249ser mutation displayed also wild-type p53 sequences. Poorly differentiated HCC was more likely to have 249Ser mutation (OR = 2.415, 95% CI = 1.001 - 5.824, p = 0.05). The mean size of 249Ser HCC tumor was 9.4 cm versus 5.5 cm on wild type HCC (p = 0.012). HBV DNA detection was not related to 249Ser mutation. Conclusion: Our results indicate that 249Ser mutation is a HCC important factor of carcinogenesis in Brazil and it is associated to large and poorly differentiated tumors.

Use of correlated potential harmonic basis functions for the description of the (4)He trimer and small clusters

A correlated many-body basis function is used to describe the (4)He trimer and small helium clusters ((4)HeN) with N = 4-9. A realistic helium dimer potential is adopted. The ground state results of the (4)He dimer and trimer are in close agreement with earlier findings. But no evidence is found for the existence of Efimov state in the trimer for the actual (4)He-(4)He interaction. However, decreasing the potential strength we calculate several excited states of the trimer which exhibit Efimov character. We also solve for excited state energies of these clusters which are in good agreement with Monte Carlo hyperspherical description. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3583365]