The effect of nitrate and phosphate availability on Emiliania huxleyi(NZEH) physiology under different CO2 scenarios

Growth and calcification of the marine coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi is affected by ocean acidification and macronutrients limitation and its response varies between strains. Here we investigated the physiological performance of a highly calcified E. huxleyi strain, NZEH, in a multiparametric experiment. Cells were exposed to different CO2 levels (ranging from 250 to 1314 µatm) under three nutrient conditions [nutrient replete (R), nitrate limited (-N), and phosphate limited (-P)]. We focused on calcite and organic carbon quotas and on nitrate and phosphate utilization by analyzing the activity of nitrate reductase (NRase) and alkaline phosphatase (APase), respectively. Particulate inorganic (PIC) and organic (POC) carbon quotas increased with increasing CO2 under R conditions but a different pattern was observed under nutrient limitation. The PIC:POC ratio decreased with increasing CO2 in nutrient limited cultures. Coccolith length increased with CO2 under all nutrient conditions but the coccosphere volume varied depending on the nutrient treatment. Maximum APase activity was found at 561 ?atm of CO2 (pH 7.92) in -P cultures and in R conditions, NRase activity increased linearly with CO2. These results suggest that E. huxleyi's competitive ability for nutrient uptake might be altered in future high-CO2 oceans. The combined dataset will be useful in model parameterizations of the carbon cycle and ocean acidification.

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to continue rising in the coming decades, but natural or artificial processes may eventually reduce it. We show that, in the FAMOUS atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the reduction of ocean heat content as radiative forcing decreases is greater than would be expected from a linear model simulation of the response to the applied forcings. We relate this effect to the behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the ocean cools more efficiently with a strong AMOC. The AMOC weakens as CO2 rises, then strengthens as CO2 declines, but temporarily overshoots its original strength. This nonlinearity comes mainly from the accumulated advection of salt into the North Atlantic, which gives the system a longer memory. This implies that changes observed in response to different CO2 scenarios or from different initial states, such as from past changes, may not be a reliable basis for making projections.

Potential impact of DOM accumulation on fCO2 and carbonate ion computations in ocean acidification experiments

Culture and mesocosm experiments are often carried out under high initial nutrient concentrations, yielding high biomass concentrations that in turn often lead to a substantial build-up of DOM. In such experiments, DOM can reach concentrations much higher than typically observed in the open ocean. To the extent that DOM includes organic acids and bases, it will contribute to the alkalinity of the seawater contained in the experimental device. Our analysis suggests that whenever substantial amounts of DOM are produced during the experiment, standard computer programmes used to compute CO2 fugacity can underestimate true fCO2 significantly when the computation is based on AT and CT. Unless the effect of DOM-alkalinity can be accounted for, this might lead to significant errors in the interpretation of the system under consideration with respect to the experimentally applied CO2 perturbation. Errors in the inferred fCO2 can misguide the development of parameterisations used in simulations with global carbon cycle models in future CO2-scenarios. Over determination of the CO2-system in experimental ocean acidification studies is proposed to safeguard against possibly large errors in estimated fCO2.

Responses of the Emiliania huxleyi Proteome to Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric CO2 is expected to affect the physiology of important calcifying marine organisms, but the nature and magnitude of change is yet to be established. In coccolithophores, different species and strains display varying calcification responses to ocean acidification, but the underlying biochemical properties remain unknown. We employed an approach combining tandem mass-spectrometry with isobaric tagging (iTRAQ) and multiple database searching to identify proteins that were differentially expressed in cells of the marine coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi (strain NZEH) between two CO2 conditions: 395 (~current day) and ~1340 p.p.m.v. CO2. Cells exposed to the higher CO2 condition contained more cellular particulate inorganic carbon (CaCO3) and particulate organic nitrogen and carbon than those maintained in present-day conditions. These results are linked with the observation that cells grew slower under elevated CO2, indicating cell cycle disruption. Under high CO2 conditions, coccospheres were larger and cells possessed bigger coccoliths that did not show any signs of malformation compared to those from cells grown under present-day CO2 levels. No differences in calcification rate, particulate organic carbon production or cellular organic carbon: nitrogen ratios were observed. Results were not related to nutrient limitation or acclimation status of cells. At least 46 homologous protein groups from a variety of functional processes were quantified in these experiments, of which four (histones H2A, H3, H4 and a chloroplastic 30S ribosomal protein S7) showed down-regulation in all replicates exposed to high CO2, perhaps reflecting the decrease in growth rate. We present evidence of cellular stress responses but proteins associated with many key metabolic processes remained unaltered. Our results therefore suggest that this E. huxleyi strain possesses some acclimation mechanisms to tolerate future CO2 scenarios, although the observed decline in growth rate may be an overriding factor affecting the success of this ecotype in future oceans.

CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Effects of reduced and business-as-usual CO2 emission scenarios on the algal territories of the damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios.

O impacto energético e as emissões de CO2 dos veículos eléctricos em Portugal

Para a diminuição da dependência energética de Portugal face às importações de energia, a Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE 2020) define uma aposta na produção de energia a partir de fontes renováveis, na promoção da eficiência energética tanto nos edifícios como nos transportes com vista a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. No campo da eficiência energética, o ENE 2020 pretende obter uma poupança energética de 9,8% face a valores de 2008, traduzindo-se em perto de 1800 milhões de tep já em 2015. Uma das medidas passa pela aposta na mobilidade eléctrica, onde se prevê que os veículos eléctricos possam contribuir significativamente para a redução do consumo de combustível e por conseguinte, para a redução das emissões de CO2 para a atmosfera. No entanto, esta redução está condicionada pelas fontes de energia utilizadas para o abastecimento das baterias. Neste estudo foram determinados os consumos de combustível e as emissões de CO2 de um veículo de combustão interna adimensional representativo do parque automóvel. É também estimada a previsão de crescimento do parque automóvel num cenário "Business-as-Usual", através dos métodos de previsão tecnológica para o horizonte 2010-2030, bem como cenários de penetração de veículos eléctricos para o mesmo período com base no método de Fisher- Pry. É ainda analisado o impacto que a introdução dos veículos eléctricos tem ao nível dos consumos de combustível, das emissões de dióxido de carbono e qual o impacto que tal medida terá na rede eléctrica, nomeadamente no diagrama de carga e no nível de emissões de CO2 do Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional. Por fim, é avaliado o impacto dos veículos eléctricos no diagrama de carga diário português, com base em vários perfis de carga das baterias. A introdução de veículos eléctricos em Portugal terá pouca expressão dado que, no melhor dos cenários haverão somente cerca de 85 mil unidades em circulação, no ano de 2030. Ao nível do consumo de combustíveis rodoviários, os veículos eléctricos poderão vir a reduzir o consumo de gasolina até 0,52% e até 0,27% no consumo de diesel, entre 2010 e 2030, contribuindo ligeiramente uma menor dependência energética externa. Ao nível do consumo eléctrico, o abastecimento das baterias dos veículos eléctricos representará até 0,5% do consumo eléctrico total, sendo que parte desse abastecimento será garantido através de centrais de ciclo combinado a gás natural. Apesar da maior utilização deste tipo de centrais térmicas para produção de energia, tanto para abastecimento das viaturas eléctricas, como para o consumo em geral, verifica-se que em 2030, o nível de emissões do sistema electroprodutor será cerca de 46% inferior aos níveis registados em 2010, prevendo-se que atinja as 0,163gCO2/kWh produzido pelo Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional devido à maior quota de produção das fontes de energia renovável, como o vento, a hídrica ou a solar.

Assessment of the impact of the European CO2 emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry

This paper describes an assessment of the impact of the enforcement of the European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trading scheme on the Portuguese chemical industry, based on cost structure, CO2 emissions, electricity consumption and allocated allowances data from a survey to four Portuguese representative units of the chemical industry sector, and considering scenarios that allow the estimation of increases on both direct and indirect production costs. These estimated cost increases were also compared with similar data from other European Industries, found in the references and with conclusions from simulation studies. Thus, it was possible to ascertain the impact of buying extra CO2 emission permits, which could be considered as limited. It was also found that this impact is somewhat lower than the impacts for other industrial sectors.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

The soil CO2 emission has high spatial variability because it depends strongly on soil properties. The purpose of this study was to (i) characterize the spatial variability of soil respiration and related properties, (ii) evaluate the accuracy of results of the ordinary kriging method and sequential Gaussian simulation, and (iii) evaluate the uncertainty in predicting the spatial variability of soil CO2 emission and other properties using sequential Gaussian simulations. The study was conducted in a sugarcane area, using a regular sampling grid with 141 points, where soil CO2 emission, soil temperature, air-filled pore space, soil organic matter and soil bulk density were evaluated. All variables showed spatial dependence structure. The soil CO2 emission was positively correlated with organic matter (r = 0.25, p < 0.05) and air-filled pore space (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and negatively with soil bulk density (r = -0.41, p < 0.01). However, when the estimated spatial values were considered, the air-filled pore space was the variable mainly responsible for the spatial characteristics of soil respiration, with a correlation of 0.26 (p < 0.01). For all variables, individual simulations represented the cumulative distribution functions and variograms better than ordinary kriging and E-type estimates. The greatest uncertainties in predicting soil CO2 emission were associated with areas with the highest estimated values, which produced estimates from 0.18 to 1.85 t CO2 ha-1, according to the different scenarios considered. The knowledge of the uncertainties generated by the different scenarios can be used in inventories of greenhouse gases, to provide conservative estimates of the potential emission of these gases.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.