A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU-15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO2 emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO2 emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO2 emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ?weighted? decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Cost Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Strategies For New Plants In Michigan's Electric Power Sector

This thesis attempts to find the least-cost strategy to reduce CO2 emission by replacing coal by other energy sources for electricity generation in the context of the proposed EPA’s regulation on CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. An ARIMA model is built to forecast coal consumption for electricity generation and its CO2 emissions in Michigan from 2016 to 2020. CO2 emission reduction costs are calculated under three emission reduction scenarios- reduction to 17%, 30% and 50% below the 2005 emission level. The impacts of Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the intermittency of renewable energy are also discussed. The results indicate that in most cases natural gas will be the best alternative to coal for electricity generation to realize CO2 reduction goals; if the PTC for wind power will continue after 2015, a natural gas and wind combination approach could be the best strategy based on the least-cost criterion.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Spatial spillover effects in determining China's regional CO2 emission growth : 2007-2010

This paper proposes an alternative input-output based spatial-structural decomposition analysis to elucidate the role of domestic-regional heterogeneity and interregional spillover effects in determining China's regional CO2 emission growth. Our empirical results based on the 2007 and 2010 Chinese interregional input-output tables show that the changes in most regions' final demand scale, final expenditure structure and export scale give positive spatial spillover effects on other regions' CO2 emission growth, the changes in most regions' consumption and export preference help the reduction of other regions' CO2 emissions, the changes in production technology, and investment preference may give positive or negative impacts on other region's CO2 emission growth through domestic supply chains. For some regions, the aggregate spillover effect from other regions may be larger than the intra-regional effect in determining regional emission growth. All these facts can significantly help better and deeper understanding on the driving forces of China's regional CO2 emission growth, thus can enrich the policy implication concerning a narrow definition of "carbon leakage" through domestic-interregional trade, and relevant political consensus about the responsibility sharing between developed and developing regions inside China.

Uranium reserve, nuclear fuel cycle delusion, CO2 emission from the sea, and electricity supply: reflections after the fuel meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power units

The Great Tohoku-Kanto earthquake and resulting tsunami has brought considerable attention to the issue of the construction of new power plants. We argue in this paper, nuclear power is not a sustainable solution to energy problems. First, we explore the stock of uranium-235 and the different schemes developed by the nuclear power industry to exploit this resource. Second, we show that these methods, fast breeder and MOX fuel reactors, are not feasible. Third, we show that the argument that nuclear energy can be used to reduce CO2 emissions is false: the emissions from the increased water evaporation from nuclear power generation must be accounted for. In the case of Japan, water from nuclear power plants is drained into the surrounding sea, raising the water temperature which has an adverse affect on the immediate ecosystem, as well as increasing CO2 emissions from increased water evaporation from the sea. Next, a short exercise is used to show that nuclear power is not even needed to meet consumer demand in Japan. Such an exercise should be performed for any country considering the construction of additional nuclear power plants. Lastly, the paper is concluded with a discussion of the implications of our findings.

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

Soil CO2 emission as related to incorporation of sugarcane crop residues and aggregate breaking after rotary tiller

Soil tillage is a process that accelerates soil organic matter decomposition transferring carbon to atmosphere, mainly in the CO2 form. In this study, the effect of rotary tillage on soil CO2 emission was investigated, including the presence of crop residues on the surface.Emissions were evaluated during 15 days after tillage in 3 plots: 1) non-tilled and without crop residues on soil surface (NTwo), 2) rotary tiller without the presence of crop residues on soil surface (RTwo), and 3) rotary tiller with the presence of crop residues in soil surface (RTw). Emissions from the RTw plot were higher than the other plots, (0.777 g CO2 m-2 h-1), with the lowest emissions recorded in the NTwo plot (0.414 g CO2 m-2 h-1). Total emission indicates that the difference of C-CO2 emitted to atmosphere corresponds to 3% of the total additional carbon in the crop residues in the RTw plot compared to RTwo. The increase in the RTwo emission in comparison to NTwo was followed by changes in the aggregate size distribution, especially those with average diameter lower than 2 mm. The increase in emission from the RTw plot in relation to RTwo was related to a decrease in crop residue mass on the surface, and its higher fragmentation and incorporation in soil. When the linear correlation between soil CO2 emission, and soil temperature and soil moisture is considered, only the RTw treatment showed significant correlation (p<0.05) with soil moisture.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

Spatial variability of soil CO2 emission in a sugarcane area characterized by secondary information

Soil CO2 emission (FCO2) is governed by the inherent properties of the soil, such as bulk density (BD). Mapping of FCO2 allows the evaluation and identification of areas with different accumulation potential of carbon. However, FCO2 mapping over larger areas is not feasible due to the period required for evaluation. This study aimed to assess the quality of FCO2 spatial estimates using values of BD as secondary information. FCO2 and BD were evaluated on a regular sampling grid of 60 m × 60 m comprising 141 points, which was established on a sugarcane area. Four scenarios were defined according to the proportion of the number of sampling points of FCO2 to those of BD. For these scenarios, 67 (F67), 87 (F87), 107 (F107) and 127 (F127) FCO2 sampling points were used in addition to 127 BD sampling points used as supplementary information. The use of additional information from the BD provided an increase in the accuracy of the estimates only in the F107, F67 and F87 scenarios, respectively. The F87 scenario, with the approximate ratio between the FCO2 and BD of 1.00:1.50, presented the best relative improvement in the quality of estimates, thereby indicating that the BD should be sampled at a density 1.5 time greater than that applied for the FCO2. This procedure avoided problems related to the high temporal variability associated with FCO2, which enabled the mapping of this variable to be elaborated in large areas.

Soil CO2 emission as related to incorporation of sugarcane crop residues and aggregate breaking after rotary tiller

O preparo do solo é um dos processos que aceleram a decomposição da matéria orgânica, transferindo carbono para atmosfera, principalmente na forma de CO2. Neste trabalho, investigou-se o efeito do preparo com enxada rotativa sobre as emissões de CO2 do solo durante 02 semanas após o preparo do solo, incluindo-se a presença de resíduos vegetais sobre a superfície. As emissões foram avaliadas por 15 dias após preparo em 3 parcelas: 1) sem preparo e sem palha superficial (SPs); 2) preparo com enxada rotativa sem a presença de palha na superfície (ERs), e 3) preparo com enxada rotativa com a presença de palha superficial (ERc). As emissões provenientes da ERc foram superiores às demais (0,777 g CO2 m-2 h-1), sendo as menores emissões registradas na parcela SPs (0,414 g CO2 m-2 h-1). As emissões totais indicaram que a diferença de C-CO2 emitida à atmosfera corresponde a 3% do total de carbono adicional presente na palha, na parcela ERc, quando comparado à parcela ERs. O aumento da emissão da parcela SPs para ERs foi acompanhado de uma modificação na distribuição do tamanho de agregados, especialmente aqueles com diâmetro médio inferior a 2 mm. O aumento da emissão da parcela ERs para ERc esteve relacionado a uma diminuição da massa de palha na superfície, com fragmentação e incorporação da mesma no interior do solo. Quando se analisa a correlação linear entre emissão de CO2 versus temperatura e umidade do solo, somente a emissão da ERc foi significativamente correlacionada (p<0,05) à umidade do solo.

Soil CO2 emission estimated by different interpolation techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fractal dimension and anisotropy of soil CO2 emission in a mechanically harvested sugarcane production area

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

A quantificação do impacto das práticas de preparo sobre as perdas de carbono do solo é dependente da habilidade de se descrever a variabilidade temporal da emissão de CO2 do solo após preparo. Tem sido sugerido que as grandes quantidades de CO2 emitido após o preparo do solo podem servir como um indicador das modificações nos estoques de carbono do solo em longo termo. Neste trabalho é apresentado um modelo de duas partes baseado na temperatura e na umidade do solo e que inclui um termo exponencial decrescente do tempo que é eficiente no ajuste das emissões intermediárias após preparo: arado de disco seguido de uma passagem com a grade niveladora (convencional) e escarificador de arrasto seguido da passagem com rolo destorroador (reduzido). As emissões após o preparo do solo são descritas utilizando-se estimativa não linear com um coeficiente de determinação (R²) tão alto quanto 0.98 após preparo reduzido. Os resultados indicam que nas previsões da emissão de CO2 após o preparo do solo é importante considerar um termo exponencial decrescente no tempo após preparo.

Soil CO2 emission and its relation to soil properties in sugarcane areas under Slash-and-burn and Green harvest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)