Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human and climatic change impact modelling on the habitat suitability for the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) – Case study: The proposed Mount Cameroon National Park

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Climatic change in northeastern Brazil: paleoparasitological data

Trichuris eggs were observed in Kerodon rupestris coprolites dated 9,000 years before present, collected in archeological sites of São Raimundo Nonato, northeastern Brazil. However, present day local rodents seem not to be infected by the parasite, suggesting its disappearence due to climatic changes.

Trace element differentiation in ferruginous accumulation soil patterns under tropical rainforest of southern Cameroon, the role of climatic change

Regions under tropical rainforest cover, such as central Africa and Brazil are characterised by degradation and dismantling of old ferricrete structures. In southern Cameroon, these processes are relayed by present-day ferruginous accumulation soil facies, situated on the middle and the lower part of hill slopes. These facies become progressively harder towards the surface, containing from bottom to top, mainly kaolinite, kaolinite-goethite and Al-rich goethite-hematite, and are discontinuous to the relictic hematite-dominated ferricrete that exist in the upper part of the hill slope. These features were investigated in terms of geochemical differentiation of trace elements. It appears that, in contrast to the old ferricrete facies, the current ferruginous accumulations are enriched in transitional trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Y, Sc) and Ph, while alkali-earth elements are less differentiated. This recent chemical accumulation is controlled both by intense weathering of the granodiorite bedrock and by mobilisation of elements previously accumulated in the old ferricrete. The observed processes are clearly linked to the present-day humid climate with rising groundwater tables. They slowly replace the old ferricretes formed during Cretaceous time under more seasonal climatic conditions, representing an instructive case of continuos global change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar Mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area of about 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, with the first survey conducted in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of the Azarova Glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938-2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20±6.9% and surface lowered on average by 20±1.8 m (mean thinning: 0.71 m a-1) resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of -18±1.6 m w.e. and -640±60 mm w.e.a-1 respectively. The July-August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.036oC a-1 between 1979 and 2007 and the 1980-2007 period was, on average, around 1oC warmer than 1938-1979. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in 2071–2100 by 2.6-4.7°C and 4.9-6.2°C respectively in comparison with 1961–1990. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under B2 scenario but decline by 3% under A2 scenario. The length of the ablation season will extend from July–August to June-September. The Azarova Glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation, exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures, and the absence of a compensating impact of cold season precipitation. Further summer warming and decline of solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova to retreat further while impacts of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario require further investigation.

Testing the sustainability and sensitivity to climatic change of terrace agricultural systems in the Peruvian Andes: a pilot study

The results of an integrated geoarchaeological and palaeoecological pilot study of a prehistoric agricultural terrace and nearby mire basin are presented. They reveal two stages of terrace construction for the cultivation of Zea mays during the Middle Horizon (615–695 AD) and late, Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 AD). These stages were strongly associated with evidence for vegetation succession, destabilisation and erosion of the surrounding landscape, and changes in mire surface wetness. The reasons for agricultural terrace abandonment and/or reconstruction are uncertain, with only circumstantial evidence for climatically induced agricultural change.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change

In the first part of this paper (Ulbrich et al. 2003), we gave a description of the August 2002 rainfall events and the resultant floods, in particular of the flood wave of the River Elbe. The extreme precipitation sums observed in the first half of the month were primarily associated with two rainfall episodes. The first episode occurred on 6/7 August 2002. The main rainfall area was situated over Lower Austria, the south-western part of the Czech Republic and south-eastern Germany. A severe flash flood was produced in the Lower Austrian Waldviertel (`forest quarter’ ). The second episode on 11± 13 August 2002 most severely affected the Erz Mountains and western parts of the Czech Republic. During this second episode 312mm of rain was recorded between 0600GMT on 12 August and 0600GMT on 13 August at the Zinnwald weather station in the ErzMountains, which is a new 24-hour record for Germany. The flash floods resulting from this rainfall episode and the subsequent Elbe flood produced the most expensive weatherrelated catastrophe in Europe in recent decades. In this part of the paper we discuss the meteorological conditions and physical mechanisms leading to the two main events. Similarities to the conditions that led to the recent summer floods of the River Oder in 1997 and the River Vistula in 2001 will be shown. This will lead us to a consideration of trends in extreme rainfall over Europe which are found in numerical simulations of anthropogenic climate change.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.