Long-term trends in fertility of soils under continuous cultivation and cereal cropping in southern Queensland. IX. Simulation of soil carbon and nitrogen pools using CENTURY model

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

Initializing the DSSAT-Century model: inverse calibration of carbon pools from apparent soil N mineralization

The CENTURY soil organic matter model was adapted for the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), modular format in order to better simulate the dynamics of soil organic nutrient processes (Gijsman et al., 2002). The CENTURY model divides the soil organic carbon (SOC) into three hypothetical pools: microbial or active material (SOC1), intermediate (SOC2) and the largely inert and stable material (SOC3) (Jones et al., 2003). At the beginning of the simulation, CENTURY model needs a value of SOC3 per soil layer which can be estimated by the model (based on soil texture and management history) or given as an input. Then, the model assigns about 5% and 95% of the remaining SOC to SOC1 and SOC2, respectively. The model performance when simulating SOC and nitrogen (N) dynamics strongly depends on the initialization process. The common methods (e.g. Basso et al., 2011) to initialize SOC pools deal mostly with carbon (C) mineralization processes and less with N. Dynamics of SOM, SOC, and soil organic N are linked in the CENTURY-DSSAT model through the C/N ratio of decomposing material that determines either mineralization or immobilization of N (Gijsman et al., 2002). The aim of this study was to evaluate an alternative method to initialize the SOC pools in the DSSAT-CENTURY model from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) field measurements by using automatic inverse calibration (simulated annealing). The results were compared with the ones obtained by the iterative initialization procedure developed by Basso et al., 2011.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Educating for digital futures : what the learning strategies of digital content professionals can teach higher education

Beginning in the second half of the 20th century, ICTs transformed many societies from industrial societies in which manufacturing was the central focus, into knowledge societies in which dealing effectively with data and information has become a central element of work (Anderson, 2008). To meet the needs of the knowledge society, universities must reinvent their structures and processes, their curricula and pedagogic practices. In addition to this, of course higher education is itself subject to the sweeping influence of ICTs. But what might effective higher education look like in the 21st century? In designing higher education systems and learning experiences which are responsive to the learning needs of the future and exploit the possibilities offered by ICTs, we can learn much from the existing professional development strategies of people who are already successful in 21st century fields, such as digital media. In this study, I ask: (1) what are the learning challenges faced by digital media professionals in the 21st century? (2) what are the various roles of formal and informal education in their professional learning strategies at present? (3) how do they prefer to acquire needed capabilities? In-depth interviews were undertaken with successful Australian digital media professionals working in micro businesses and SMEs to answer these questions. The strongest thematic grouping that emerged from the interviews related to the need for continual learning and relearning because of the sheer rate of change in the digital media industries. Four dialectical relationships became apparent from the interviewees’ commentaries around the learning imperatives arising out of the immense and continual changes occurring in the digital content industries: (1) currency vs best practice (2) diversification vs specialisation of products and services (3) creative outputs vs commercial outcomes (4) more learning opportunities vs less opportunity to learn. These findings point to the importance of ‘learning how to learn’ as a 21st century capability. The interviewees were ambivalent about university courses as preparation for professional life in their fields. Higher education was described by several interviewees as having relatively little value-add beyond what one described as “really expensive credentialling services.” For all interviewees in this study, informal learning strategies were the preferred methods of acquiring the majority of knowledge and skills, both for ongoing and initial professional development. Informal learning has no ‘curriculum’ per se, and tends to be opportunistic, unstructured, pedagogically agile and far more self-directed than formal learning (Eraut, 2004). In an industry impacted by constant change, informal learning is clearly both essential and ubiquitous. Inspired by the professional development strategies of the digital media professionals in this study, I propose a 21st century model of the university as a broad, open learning ecology, which also includes industry, professionals, users, and university researchers. If created and managed appropriately, the university learning network becomes the conduit and knowledge integrator for the latest research and industry trends, which students and professionals alike can access as needed.

Fragmento de un epítome del «Liber Glossarum» en un manuscrito de en torno al año 1000

[EN] This article consists of a study (provenance, date of the manuscript, sources of the glossary, etc.) and an edition of the fragment of an epitome of the «Liber Glossarum» which is contained in a ms. about the year 1000 A.D. From the "Spanish symptoms" which one can track in the present copy, the ms. El Escorial L.I.15, from the 16th-17th century, the author infers that his model, now perished, was written in Spain and in wisigothic script about the year 1000. On the other side, on the basis of the copy the author reconstructs the primitive glossary text of the 10th-11th century model in a critical edition accompanied by a critical apparat and sources.

羊草群落生产力动态及其对全球变化的反应

以中国东北森林 - 草原样带(NECT)上的松嫩平原羊草草甸草原为研究对象，从影响羊草叶片光合作用的机理出发，基于羊草片光合生理生态特性、羊草群落小气候梯度以及羊草群落生物量等的野外动态观测，分析了羊草叶片的光合生理特性动态特征，建立了羊草叶片的光合作用机理模型，通过尺度化，发展了基于叶片生理特性的羊草群落生产力动态模型;并结合著名的草地生态系统模型—CENTURY模型探讨了人类活动和气候变化对羊草草地的影响。主要结果如下： (1) 晴朗天气下羊草叶片气孔导度和净光合速率日变化均呈双峰型曲线。 (2) 影响羊草叶片气孔导度的主要环境因子是光合有效辐射、叶片与空气间的水汽压亏损以及空气温度。 (3) 影响羊草叶片净光合速率的主要因子是胞间CO2浓度、气孔导度、空气CO2浓度及蒸腾速率。 (4) 对当前2类代表性气孔导度模型的验证表明，基于Jarvis模型所改建的气孔导度模型比依据Leuning改进的Ball模型所建立的气孔导度模型具有更好的模拟效果，并据此建立了适于羊草叶片的气孔导度模型： gs = PAR (-2.01Ta2 + 147.74Ta - 2321.11)/((444.62 + PAR) (-538.042 + VPD)) (5) 结合能量平衡方程和光合作用生化模型，建立了能够模拟羊草叶片CO2、水汽和热量交换的羊草叶片光合作用耦合模型。该模型有能力预测复杂的环境变化对羊草叶片净光合作用和气孔导度的影响。 (6) 通过尺度化(采用多层模式模拟冠层导度，大叶模式模拟光合作用)，建立了羊草群落光合作用模型，结合植物群落的呼吸模型，估算了羊草群落的净第一性生产力，并与实测值及CENTURY模型模拟值进行了比较，结果表明，基于叶片光合机理的群落生产力模型较CENTURY模型能更好地反映羊草群落的生产力动态。 (7) 基于CENTURY模型对人类活动、气候变化对羊草草原可能影响的模拟表明，人类活动(割草和放牧)和气候变化都会明显影响羊草草原，但人类活动产生的影响更为显著，尤其是重牧将造成羊草草原土壤有机碳和群落生物量显著降低。因此，制定合理的放牧和割草措施对于维持草场的可持续发展具有重要意义。

全球变化的中国北方林生态系统生产力及其生态系统公益

基于我国北方林一兴安落叶松林的实际观测资料对国际著名的CENTURY模型进行了验证，进而模拟了我国北方林一兴安落叶松林的碳循环动态;结合全球变化的预测结果，模拟了全球气候变化下中国北方林生物量、生产力以及碳吸收能力的变化;并且预测了大兴安岭地区的自然干扰因子（林火）和人类活动（采伐、搂除枯枝落叶）对兴安落叶松林碳循环的影响。建立了综合反映兴安落叶松林生物学特性（年龄、蓄积量）及气候因素（年均温、年降水）共同作用下的兴安落叶松林净第一性生产力模型一材积驱动模型。评估了我国森林的生态系统公益价值，并建立了森林生态系统公益价值与其总生产力的回归关系。具体结果如下： (1) 我国北方林的植物总生物量为112. llt．hm-2，净第一性生产力为403. 07gC.m-2.a-l。 (2) 建立了兴安落叶松林的生物气候生产力模型： NPP= (0.3318ln (V/A) +0.4747)×30 (l_e-0'0009695E) 为基于森林资源清查资料与气候资料估算森林生产力提供了方法。 (3) 兴安落叶松林生态系统每年可净吸收碳2.65 t．hm-2，是一个重要的碳汇。 (4) 大气C02浓度倍增将使兴安落叶松林的净笫一性生产力增加9. 8%，并且提高了兴安落叶松林的碳汇功能。 (5) 温度上升将增加兴安落叶松林的生物量和净初级生产力，并且其碳汇功能也有所提高。对兴安落叶松林生长的主要限制因子是温度而不是水分。 (6) 林火使兴安落叶松林的生物量降低，但同时也促进了兴安落叶松的更新及幼树的生长，火烧后兴安落叶松林的生产力均有所增加。火烧的强度越大，烧死的森林生物量越多，火后的恢复期也越长。 (7) 一定强度的采伐有利于兴安落叶松林的更新和幼苗、幼树的生长，从而既得到了直接的经济效益，同时又可以保持一定的生态效益。 (8) 搂除枯枝落叶层在短时间内促进了兴安落叶松林的生长，但长期下去，则将导致土壤越来越贫瘠，不利于森林的生长。 (9) 兴安落叶松林所创造的生态系统公益的总价值约为2409.96×106US$．a-，其生态效益的价值是其所创造的经济价值的2.52倍，反映了生态效益的显著性。 (10) 在对我国各类型森林的生态系统公益价值评估的基础上建 立了森林生态系统公益价值与其生产力的回归关系：Va=108.25×1 06×(Tp)0'93，简化了生态系统公益价值的评估计算工作。

中国主要森林生态系统碳储量和碳收支评估

森林作为陆地生态系统中主要的植被类型在全球碳循环研究中有着十分重要的作用，而森林资源清样调查资料以其系统性、科学性、连续性等优点在森林生态系统碳循环研究中具有十分重要的地位。本研究以中国主要森林植被类型为研究对象，基于中国森林资源清样调查资料（FID），采用建立的生物气候生产力模型和反映林龄和蓄积量共同影响的生产力回归模型分别估计了中国油松林和主要造林树种的生产力;利用改进的材积源生物量法估算了中国主要森林植被类型的碳储量;并基于多元线性回归方法和因子分析法探讨了林业用地以及气候因子对中国森林植被碳储量的影响;同时，结合生物地球化学循环模型CENTURY模型评估了中国森林生态系统的碳收支。主要研究结果如下： 1建立了中国油松林生物气候生产力模型NPPa=［0.331n（V／A）+0.18］*3000（1-e-0.00096‘哪，根据油松林的森林资源清样调查资料和气候资料估算的中国油松林生产力平均为7.82Mg•ha-1•yr-1，其变化幅度为3.32-11.87Mg•ha-1•yr-1，其分布表现为南高北低的趋势。生产力较高的区域主要分布在东部和南部（四川、湖北、河南、辽宁等省），均大于7.7Mg•ha-1•yr-1;生产力较低的区域主要分布在北部和西部较为干旱的区域（内蒙古），NPP均低于5.5Mg•ha-1•yr-1：油松林集中分布区（陕西、山西）生产力处于中等水平，在5.5-7.7Mg•ha-1•yr-1之间。 2基于森林资源清样调查资料评估了中国五种主要造林树种（落叶松Larix，油松Pinusstabulaeformis，马尾松Pinusmassoniana，杉木Cunninghamialanceolata，杨树Populus）的生产力，分别为8.43、5.75、4.42、4.41、7.33Mg•ha-1•yr-1，低于世界平均生产力水平，主要原因可能是这五种造林树种大都处于未成熟阶段，表明中国造林树种在提高中国森林生态系统的固碳能力方面有很大的潜力。 3基于两次（第三次和第四次）森林资源清查资料和改进的材积源生物量法评估了中国森林的碳储量，分别为3.48和3.78PgC（1Pg＝1015g）。 基于多元线性回归模型探讨了林业用地变化对森林植被碳储量的影响。分析表明：在森林平均林龄减小的情况下，森林植被碳储量有增加的趋势;而森林碳储量随森林面积的增加而增加。当平均林龄增加10年，全国森林面积增加1*104ha时，全国森林植被的碳储量将增加54.51Tg（1Tg＝1012g），表明我国森林植被碳储量取决于自然和人为因素共同作用。 采用因子分析方法探讨了气候变化对森林植被碳储量的影响，分析表明：气温是森林植被碳储量的主要限制因子。当气温升高时，森林植被碳储量有降低的趋势;降水与森林植被碳储量呈正相关，随降水的增加森林植被碳储量增加。在年均温升高4℃，年降水量增加10％;年均温升高4℃，年降水量不变;年均温升高4℃，年降水量减少10％三种气候变化情景下，我国森林植被碳储量的增加量分别为：9.19Tg、6.67Tg和4.15Tg。 4基于生物地球化学循环模型模拟的中国森林生态系统的碳收支为0.17PgC，中国森林表现为一个巨大的碳汇。其中，西南地区森林碳收支占44％，华东及西北地区的森林碳收支总和不足14%。

Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

SIMULATION OF USE AND MANAGEMENT EFFECTS ON THE SOIL ORGANIC MATTER POOLS OF THE ATLANTIC FOREST BIOME, BRAZIL

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Improving the management of water and nitrogen resources in cropping systems by using simulation models

Los modelos de simulación de cultivos permiten analizar varias combinaciones de laboreo-rotación y explorar escenarios de manejo. El modelo DSSAT fue evaluado bajo condiciones de secano en un experimento de campo de 16 años en la semiárida España central. Se evaluó el efecto del sistema de laboreo y las rotaciones basadas en cereales de invierno, en el rendimiento del cultivo y la calidad del suelo. Los modelos CERES y CROPGRO se utilizaron para simular el crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo, mientras que el modelo DSSAT CENTURY se utilizó en las simulaciones de SOC y SN. Tanto las observaciones de campo como las simulaciones con CERES-Barley, mostraron que el rendimiento en grano de la cebada era mas bajo para el cereal continuo (BB) que para las rotaciones de veza (VB) y barbecho (FB) en ambos sistemas de laboreo. El modelo predijo más nitrógeno disponible en el laboreo convencional (CT) que en el no laboreo (NT) conduciendo a un mayor rendimiento en el CT. El SOC y el SN en la capa superficial del suelo, fueron mayores en NT que en CT, y disminuyeron con la profundidad en los valores tanto observados como simulados. Las mejores combinaciones para las condiciones de secano estudiadas fueron CT-VB y CT-FB, pero CT presentó menor contenido en SN y SOC que NT. El efecto beneficioso del NT en SOC y SN bajo condiciones Mediterráneas semiáridas puede ser identificado por observaciones de campo y por simulaciones de modelos de cultivos. La simulación del balance de agua en sistemas de cultivo es una herramienta útil para estudiar como el agua puede ser utilizado eficientemente. La comparación del balance de agua de DSSAT , con una simple aproximación “tipping bucket”, con el modelo WAVE más mecanicista, el cual integra la ecuación de Richard , es un potente método para valorar el funcionamiento del modelo. Los parámetros de suelo fueron calibrados usando el método de optimización global Simulated Annealing (SA). Un lisímetro continuo de pesada en suelo desnudo suministró los valores observados de drenaje y evapotranspiración (ET) mientras que el contenido de agua en el suelo (SW) fue suministrado por sensores de capacitancia. Ambos modelos funcionaron bien después de la optimización de los parámetros de suelo con SA, simulando el balance de agua en el suelo para el período de calibración. Para el período de validación, los modelos optimizados predijeron bien el contenido de agua en el suelo y la evaporación del suelo a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el drenaje fue predicho mejor con WAVE que con DSSAT, el cual presentó mayores errores en los valores acumulados. Esto podría ser debido a la naturaleza mecanicista de WAVE frente a la naturaleza más funcional de DSSAT. Los buenos resultados de WAVE indican que, después de la calibración, este puede ser utilizado como "benchmark" para otros modelos para periodos en los que no haya medidas de campo del drenaje. El funcionamiento de DSSAT-CENTURY en la simulación de SOC y N depende fuertemente del proceso de inicialización. Se propuso como método alternativo (Met.2) la inicialización de las fracciones de SOC a partir de medidas de mineralización aparente del suelo (Napmin). El Met.2 se comparó con el método de inicialización de Basso et al. (2011) (Met.1), aplicando ambos métodos a un experimento de campo de 4 años en un área en regadío de España central. Nmin y Napmin fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1, ya que la fracción estable obtenida (SOC3) en las capas superficiales del suelo fue más baja que con Met.2. El N lixiviado simulado fue similar en los dos métodos, con buenos resultados en los tratamientos de barbecho y cebada. El Met.1 subestimó el SOC en la capa superficial del suelo cuando se comparó con una serie observada de 12 años. El crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo fueron adecuadamente simulados con ambos métodos, pero el N en la parte aérea de la planta y en el grano fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1. Los resultados variaron significativamente con las fracciones iniciales de SOC, resaltando la importancia del método de inicialización. El Met.2 ofrece una alternativa para la inicialización del modelo CENTURY, mejorando la simulación de procesos de N en el suelo. La continua emergencia de nuevas variedades de híbridos modernos de maíz limita la aplicación de modelos de simulación de cultivos, ya que estos nuevos híbridos necesitan ser calibrados en el campo para ser adecuados para su uso en los modelos. El desarrollo de relaciones basadas en la duración del ciclo, simplificaría los requerimientos de calibración facilitando la rápida incorporación de nuevos cultivares en DSSAT. Seis híbridos de maiz (FAO 300 hasta FAO 700) fueron cultivados en un experimento de campo de dos años en un área semiárida de regadío en España central. Los coeficientes genéticos fueron obtenidos secuencialmente, comenzando con los parámetros de desarrollo fenológico (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), seguido de los parámetros de crecimiento del cultivo (G2 and G3). Se continuó el procedimiento hasta que la salida de las simulaciones estuvo en concordancia con las observaciones fenológicas de campo. Después de la calibración, los parámetros simulados se ajustaron bien a los parámetros observados, con bajos RMSE en todos los casos. Los P1 y P5 calibrados, incrementaron con la duración del ciclo. P1 fue una función lineal del tiempo térmico (TT) desde emergencia hasta floración y P5 estuvo linealmente relacionada con el TT desde floración a madurez. No hubo diferencias significativas en PHINT entre híbridos de FAO-500 a 700 , ya que tuvieron un número de hojas similar. Como los coeficientes fenológicos estuvieron directamente relacionados con la duración del ciclo, sería posible desarrollar rangos y correlaciones que permitan estimar dichos coeficientes a partir de la clasificación del ciclo. ABSTRACT Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. DSSAT model was tested under rainfed conditions in a 16-year field experiment in semiarid central Spain. The effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations on the crop yield and soil quality was evaluated. The CERES and CROPGRO models were used to simulate crop growth and yield, while the DSSAT CENTURY was used in the SOC and SN simulations. Both field observations and CERES-Barley simulations, showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The model predicted higher nitrogen availability in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) leading to a higher yield in the CT. The SOC and SN in the top layer, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. The best combinations for the dry land conditions studied were CT-VB and CT-FB, but CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. The beneficial effect of NT on SOC and SN under semiarid Mediterranean conditions can be identified by field observations and by crop model simulations. The simulation of the water balance in cropping systems is a useful tool to study how water can be used efficiently. The comparison of DSSAT soil water balance, with a simpler “tipping bucket” approach, with the more mechanistic WAVE model, which integrates Richard’s equation, is a powerful method to assess model performance. The soil parameters were calibrated by using the Simulated Annealing (SA) global optimizing method. A continuous weighing lysimeter in a bare fallow provided the observed values of drainage and evapotranspiration (ET) while soil water content (SW) was supplied by capacitance sensors. Both models performed well after optimizing soil parameters with SA, simulating the soil water balance components for the calibrated period. For the validation period, the optimized models predicted well soil water content and soil evaporation over time. However, drainage was predicted better by WAVE than by DSSAT, which presented larger errors in the cumulative values. That could be due to the mechanistic nature of WAVE against the more functional nature of DSSAT. The good results from WAVE indicate that, after calibration, it could be used as benchmark for other models for periods when no drainage field measurements are available. The performance of DSSAT-CENTURY when simulating SOC and N strongly depends on the initialization process. Initialization of the SOC pools from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) measurements was proposed as alternative method (Met.2). Method 2 was compared to the Basso et al. (2011) initialization method (Met.1), by applying both methods to a 4-year field experiment in a irrigated area of central Spain. Nmin and Napmin were overestimated by Met.1, since the obtained stable pool (SOC3) in the upper layers was lower than from Met.2. Simulated N leaching was similar for both methods, with good results in fallow and barley treatments. Method 1 underestimated topsoil SOC when compared with a 12-year observed serial. Crop growth and yield were properly simulated by both methods, but N in shoots and grain were overestimated by Met.1. Results varied significantly with the initial SOC pools, highlighting the importance of the initialization procedure. Method 2 offers an alternative to initialize the CENTURY model, enhancing the simulation of soil N processes. The continuous emergence of new varieties of modern maize hybrids limits the application of crop simulation models, since these new hybrids should be calibrated in the field to be suitable for model use. The development of relationships based on the cycle duration, would simplify the calibration requirements facilitating the rapid incorporation of new cultivars into DSSAT. Six maize hybrids (FAO 300 through FAO 700) were grown in a 2-year field experiment in a semiarid irrigated area of central Spain. Genetic coefficients were obtained sequentially, starting with the phenological development parameters (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), followed by the crop growth parameters (G2 and G3). The procedure was continued until the simulated outputs were in good agreement with the field phenological observations. After calibration, simulated parameters matched observed parameters well, with low RMSE in most cases. The calibrated P1 and P5 increased with the duration of the cycle. P1 was a linear function of the thermal time (TT) from emergence to silking and P5 was linearly related with the TT from silking to maturity . There were no significant differences in PHINT between hybrids from FAO-500 to 700 , as they had similar leaf number. Since phenological coefficients were directly related with the cycle duration, it would be possible to develop ranges and correlations which allow to estimate such coefficients from the cycle classification.

Simulating improved combinations tillage-rotation under dryland conditions.

Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. This study was conducted to test the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) modelling system in rainfed semiarid central Spain. The focus is on the combined effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations (cereal/legume/fallow) on the crop yield and soil quality. The observed data come from a 16-year field experiment. The CERES and CROPGRO models, included in DSSAT v4.5, were used to simulate crop growth and yield, and DSSAT- CENTURY was used in the soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen (SN) simulations. Genetic coefficients were calibrated using part of the observed data. Field observations showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The CERES-Barley model also reflected this trend. The model predicted higher yield in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) probably due to the higher nitrogen availability in the CT, shown in the simulations. The SOC and SN in the top layer only, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. These results suggest that CT-VB and CT-FB were the best combinations for the dry land conditions studied. However, CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. This study shows how models can be a useful tool for assessing and predicting crop growth and yield, under different management systems and under specific edapho-climatic conditions. Additional key words: CENTURY model; CERES-Barley; crop simulation models; DSSAT; sequential simula- tion; soil organic carbon.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

A conceptual model of capability learning for the 21st century knowledge economy

This chapter proposes a conceptual model for optimal development of needed capabilities for the contemporary knowledge economy. We commence by outlining key capability requirements of the 21st century knowledge economy, distinguishing these from those suited to the earlier stages of the knowledge economy. We then discuss the extent to which higher education currently caters to these requirements and then put forward a new model for effective knowledge economy capability learning. The core of this model is the development of an adaptive and adaptable career identity, which is created through a reflective process of career self-management, drawing upon data from the self and the world of work. In turn, career identity drives the individual’s process of skill and knowledge acquisition, including deep disciplinary knowledge. The professional capability learning thus acquired includes disciplinary skill and knowledge sets, generic skills, and also skills for the knowledge economy, including disciplinary agility, social network capability, and enterprise skills. In the final part of this chapter, we envision higher education systems that embrace the model, and suggest steps that could be taken toward making the development of knowledge economy capabilities an integral part of the university experience.