The global carbon budget:a conflicting claims problem

Despite global environmental governance has traditionally couched global warming in terms of annual CO2 emissions (a flow), global mean temperature is actually determined by cumulative CO2 emissions in the atmosphere (a stock). Thanks to advances of scientific community, nowadays it is possible to quantify the \global carbon budget", that is, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2oC threshold (Meinshausen et al., 2009). The current approach proposes to analyze the allocation of such global carbon budget among countries as a classical conflicting claims problem (O'Neill, 1982). Based on some appealing principles, it is proposed an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget from 2000 to 2050 taking into account different environmental risk scenarios. Keywords: Carbon budget, Conflicting claims problem, Distribution, Climate change. JEL classification: C79, D71, D74, H41, H87, Q50, Q54, Q58.

Climate justice in a carbon budget

The fact of a carbon budget given commitment to limiting global-mean temperature increase to below 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels makes CO2 emissions a scarce resource. This fact has significant consequences for the ethics of climate change. The paper highlights some of these consequences with respect to (a) applying principles of distributive justice to the allocation of rights to emissions and the costs of mitigation and adaptation, (b) compensation for the harms and risks of climate change, (c) radical new ideas about a place for criminal justice in tackling climate change, and (d) catastrophe ethics.

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil`s ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO(2) emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane`s juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane`s bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes Of CO(2) per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity`s potential, plus the capture Of CO(2) released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO(2)/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO(2)/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg Of CO(2) per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Zooplankton carbon budget from Trondheim mesocosm experiment

We measured respiration, egg production and fecal pellet production of five common copepod species, when fed on suspended or aggregated food from two mesocosm, + NP and + NPSi. We hypothetised that calanoid copepods (Temora longicornis, Acartia spp., Centropages spp.) would feed mainly on suspended food, and have low respiration and egestion rates when food was only available as aggregates, while harpacticoids and Oncaea spp. would mainly feed on aggregated food and have low metabolic rates when only suspended food was available. Copepods were collected from the lagoon, and adapted to experimental conditions for 24 h. Food suspension was collected from the mesocosms, and either offered to copepods directly (suspended food) or after rotating in a plankton wheel until most phytoplankton was aggregated together (aggregated food). After 24-h incubation we counted the produced eggs and pellets, and measured copepod respiration using microelectrodes.

Integrated Carbon Budget Models for the Everglades Terrestrial-Coastal-Oceanic Gradient: Current Status and Needs for Inter-Site Comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines.

Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ∼218 ± 72 Tg C a−1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ∼112 ± 85 Tg C a−1, equivalent in magnitude to ∼30–40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far.

Production and carbon allocation in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation with water and nutrient manipulations

We examined resource limitations on growth and carbon allocation in a fast-growing, clonal plantation of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla in Brazil by characterizing responses to annual rainfall, and response to irrigation and fertililization for 2 years. Productivity measures included gross primary production (GPP), total belowground carbon allocation (TBCA), bole growth, and net ecosystem production (NEP). Replicate plots within a single plantation were established at the midpoint of the rotation (end of year 3), with treatments of no additional fertilization or irrigation, heavy fertilization (to remove any nutrient limitation), irrigation (to remove any water limitation), and irrigation plus fertilization. Rainfall was unusually high in the first year (1769mm) of the experiment, and control plots had high rates of GPP (6.64 kg C m(-2) year(-1)), TBCA (2.14 kg C m(-2) year(-1)), and bole growth (1.81 kg C m(-2) year). Irrigation increased each of these rates by 15-17%. The second year of the experiment had average rainfall (1210 mm), and lower rainfall decreased production in control plots by 46% (GPP), 52% (TBCA), and 40% (bole growth). Fertilization treatments had neglible effects. The response to irrigation was much greater in the drier year, with irrigated plots exceeding the production in control plots by 83% (GPP), 239% (TBCA), and 24% (bole growth). Even though the rate of irrigation ensured no water limitation to tree growth, the high rainfall year showed higher production in irrigated plots for both GPP (38% greater than in drier year) and bole growth (23% greater). Varying humidity and supplies of water led to a range in NEP of 0.8-2.7 kg C m(-2) year. This difference between control and irrigated treatments, combined with differences between drier and wetter years, indicated a strong response of these Eucalyptus trees to both water supply and atmospheric humidity during the dry season. The efficiency of converting light energy into fixed carbon ranged from a low of 0.027 mol C to a high of 0.060 mol C per mol of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), and the efficiency of bolewood production ranged from 0.78 to 1.98 g wood per MJ of APAR. Irrigation increased the efficiency of wood production per unit of water used from 2.55 kg wood m(-3) in the rainfed plot to 3.51 kg m(-3) in irrigated plots. Detailed information on the response of C budgets to environmental conditions and resource supplies will be necessary for accurate predictions of plantation yields across years and landscapes. (V) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dissolved organic carbon in rainwater from areas heavily impacted by sugar cane burning

This work reports on rainwater dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Ribeirao Preto (RP) and Araraquara over a period of 3 years. The economies of these two cities, located in Sao Paulo state (Brazil), are based on agriculture and related industries, and the region is strongly impacted by the burning of sugar cane foliage before harvesting. Highest DOC concentrations were obtained when air masses traversed sugar cane fields burned on the same day as the rain event. Significant increases in the DOC volume weighted means (VWM) during the harvest period, for both sites, and a good linear correlation (r=0.83) between DOC and K (a biomass burning marker) suggest that regional scale organic carbon emissions prevail over long-range transport. The DOC VWMs and standard deviations were 272 +/- 22 mu mol L-1 (n=193) and 338 +/- 40 mu mol L-1 (n=80) for RP and Araraquara, respectively, values which are at least two times higher than those reported for other regions influenced by biomass burning, such as the Amazon. These high DOC levels are discussed in terms of agricultural activities, particularly the large usage of biogenic fuels in Brazil, as well as the analytical method used in this work, which includes volatile organic carbon when reporting DOC values. Taking into account rainfall volume, estimated annual rainwater DOC fluxes for RP (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and Araraquara (5.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) were close to that previously found for the Amazon region (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This work also discusses whether previous calculations of the global rainwater carbon flux may have been underestimated, since they did not consider large inputs from biomass combustion sources, and suffered from a possible analytical bias. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide in scree slope deposits: A pathway from atmosphere to pedogenic carbonate

A continuum of carbon, from atmospheric CO2 to secondary calcium carbonate, has been studied in a soil associ- ated with scree slope deposits in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. This approach is based on former studies conducted in other environments. This C continuum includes atmospheric CO2, soil organic matter (SOM), soil CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, and secondary pedogenic carbonate. Soil parameters (pCO2, temperature, pH, Cmin and Corg contents), soil solution chemistry, and isotopic compositions of soil CO2, DIC, carbonate and soil organic matter (δ13CCO2, δ13CDIC, δ13Ccar and δ13CSOM values) have been monitored at different depths (from 20 to 140 cm) over one year. Results demonstrated that the carbon source in secondary carbonate (mainly needle fiber calcite) is related to the dissolved inorganic carbon, which is strongly dependent on soil respiration. The heterotrophic respiration, rather than the limestone parent material, seems to control the pedogenic carbon cycle. The correlation of δ13Corg values with Rock-Eval HI and OI indices demonstrates that, in a soil associated to scree slope deposits, the main process responsible for 13C-enrichment in SOM is related to bac- terial oxidative decarboxylation. Finally, precipitation of secondary calcium carbonate is enhanced by changes in soil pCO2 associated to the convective movement of air masses induced by temperature gradients (heat pump effect) in the highly porous scree slope deposits. The exportation of soil C-leachates from systems such as the one studied in this paper could partially explain the "gap in the European carbon budget" reported by recent studies.

Dissolved organic carbon in rainwater from areas heavily impacted by sugar cane burning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)