Business forecasting.

Includes bibliography.

Business cycles and forecasting.

"First printing, February, 1940."

Fluctuations, growth, and forecasting: the principles of dynamic business economics.

Mode of access: Internet.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

The business outlook for ... : the ... annual UCLA business forecast and proceedings of the Conference on the Business Outlook, conducted for the UCLA Business Research Associates.

Description based on: 1961; title from cover.

The demand for aluminum: a case study in long-range forecasting.

"Developed from a doctoral dissertation, Long-range forecasting of the demand for aluminum (University of Illinois, 1956)"

Business conditions analysis.

Mode of access: Internet.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Prospecção de novos negócios numa indústria de autopeças: diagnóstico de falhas e sugestões de ferramentas para melhoria

The growth and expansion in auto parts market are directly related to the ability of a company to innovate and gain new customers, increasing its portfolio of customers and products. For this purpose the process of prospecting for new business has become a key process in companies seeking this goal, which requires teams and structures dedicated to it. Besides counting on available resources to carry out prospecting, it is necessary to properly manage the process as a whole, whose main result is a business proposal, which may lead to closer relations with the potential client and the activation of a new business. Process failures and difficulties to formulate a commercial proposal lead to documents produced without the quality needed that makes it harder to obtain new business. The objective of this study is to evaluate the process of new businesses quotation in the auto parts industry and indicate opportunities for improving this process. This goal is achieved by mapping the current process, from the diagnosis of problems and the indication of tools that can prevent or minimize the problems diagnosed. The information supporting this study were obtained by the bibliographical research, participant observation of the process, unstructured interviews with some of the involved people in the process and prospecting tools that can improve it. It results the mapping of new business quotation process, the points indicated as failures and difficulties in the process and the appointment of project management tools that can bring improvements to the new business proposals and pointing the moment for your application in the process

Anticipations, uncertainty, and dynamic planning.

Bibliographical footnotes.

Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Exploração de dados para soluções de retalho em business intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Gestão e Sistemas de Informação

Forecasting human entrances at a commercial store using facial recognition data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação