Business forecasting.

Includes bibliography.

Business cycles and forecasting.

"First printing, February, 1940."

Fluctuations, growth, and forecasting: the principles of dynamic business economics.

Mode of access: Internet.

The business outlook for ... : the ... annual UCLA business forecast and proceedings of the Conference on the Business Outlook, conducted for the UCLA Business Research Associates.

Description based on: 1961; title from cover.

The demand for aluminum: a case study in long-range forecasting.

"Developed from a doctoral dissertation, Long-range forecasting of the demand for aluminum (University of Illinois, 1956)"

Business conditions analysis.

Mode of access: Internet.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Prospecção de novos negócios numa indústria de autopeças: diagnóstico de falhas e sugestões de ferramentas para melhoria

The growth and expansion in auto parts market are directly related to the ability of a company to innovate and gain new customers, increasing its portfolio of customers and products. For this purpose the process of prospecting for new business has become a key process in companies seeking this goal, which requires teams and structures dedicated to it. Besides counting on available resources to carry out prospecting, it is necessary to properly manage the process as a whole, whose main result is a business proposal, which may lead to closer relations with the potential client and the activation of a new business. Process failures and difficulties to formulate a commercial proposal lead to documents produced without the quality needed that makes it harder to obtain new business. The objective of this study is to evaluate the process of new businesses quotation in the auto parts industry and indicate opportunities for improving this process. This goal is achieved by mapping the current process, from the diagnosis of problems and the indication of tools that can prevent or minimize the problems diagnosed. The information supporting this study were obtained by the bibliographical research, participant observation of the process, unstructured interviews with some of the involved people in the process and prospecting tools that can improve it. It results the mapping of new business quotation process, the points indicated as failures and difficulties in the process and the appointment of project management tools that can bring improvements to the new business proposals and pointing the moment for your application in the process

Anticipations, uncertainty, and dynamic planning.

Bibliographical footnotes.

Forecasting trends in the Brisbane central business district office market

The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.

Organized crime : policing illegal business entrepreneurialism

Organized crime in the twenty-first century is a knowledge war that poses an incalculable global threat to the world economy and harm to society - the economic and social costs are estimated at upwards of L20 billion a year for the UK alone (SOCA 2006/7). Organized Crime: Policing Illegal Business Entrepreneurialism offers a unique approach to the tackling of this area by exploring how it works through the conceptual framework of a business enterprise. Structured in three parts, the book progresses systematically through key areas and concepts integral to dealing effectively with the myriad contemporary forms of organised crime and provides insights on where, how and when to disrupt and dismantle a criminal business activity through current policing practices and policies. From the initial set up of a crime business through to the long term forecasting for growth and profitability, the authors dissect and analyse the different phases of the business enterprise and propose a 'Knowledge-Managed Policing' (KMP) approach to criminal entrepreneurialism. Combining conceptual and practical issues, this is a must-have reference for all police professionals, policing academics and government policy makers who are interested in a Strategy-led, Intelligence supported, Knowledge-Managed approach to policing illegal business entrepreneurialism.

The impact of regulatory reforms on the earnings forecasting behaviour of IPO firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to jointly assess the impact of regulatory reform for corporate fundraising in Australia (CLERP Act 1999) and the relaxation of ASX admission rules in 1999, on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts in initial public offer (IPO) prospectuses. The relaxation of ASX listing rules permitted a new category of new economy firms (commitments test entities (CTEs))to list without a prior history of profitability, while the CLERP Act (introduced in 2000) was accompanied by tighter disclosure obligations and stronger enforcement action by the corporate regulator (ASIC). Design/methodology/approach – All IPO earnings forecasts in prospectuses lodged between 1998 and 2003 are examined to assess the pre- and post-CLERP Act impact. Based on active ASIC enforcement action in the post-reform period, IPO firms are hypothesised to provide more accurate forecasts, particularly CTE firms, which are less likely to have a reasonable basis for forecasting. Research models are developed to empirically test the impact of the reforms on CTE and non-CTE IPO firms. Findings – The new regulatory environment has had a positive impact on management forecasting behaviour. In the post-CLERP Act period, the accuracy of prospectus forecasts and their revisions significantly improved and, as expected, the results are primarily driven by CTE firms. However, the majority of prospectus forecasts continue to be materially inaccurate. Originality/value – The results highlight the need to control for both the changing nature of listed firms and the level of enforcement action when examining responses to regulatory changes to corporate fundraising activities.