Momentum profits following bull and bear markets

This paper examines the profitability that the widely published momentum strategy achieves following bull and bear markets. Investors can gain stronger momentum profits by adopting the continuation strategy after poor lagged market returns. The longer the duration used to describe the bear state, the stronger the momentum returns that are realised. The results contradict the theoretical findings of the investors' overconfidence model of Daniel et al. (`Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Over-Reactions', Journal of Finance, 53, 1839-85, 1998) and the follow-the-trend model of Kim (`Long-term Momentum Hypothesis: Contrarian and Momentum Strategies', Working Paper, 2002), but concur with the theoretical results of the traders' hesitation model of Du (`Heterogeneity in Investor Confidence and Asset Market Under- and Overreaction', Working Paper, 2002).

Classifying Chinese bull and bear markets : indices and individual stocks

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate Chinese bull and bear markets. The Chinese stock market has experienced a long period of bear cycle from early 2000 until 2006, and then it fluctuated greatly until 2010. However, the cyclical behaviour of stock markets during this period is less well established. This paper aims to answer the question why the Chinese stock market experienced a long duration of bear market and what factors would have impacted this cyclical behaviour. Design/methodology/approach: By comparing the intervals of bull and bear markets between stocks and indices based on a Markov switching model, this paper examines whether different industries or A- and B-share markets could lead to different stock market cyclical behaviour and whether firm size can determine the relationship between the firm stock cycles on the market cycles. Findings: This paper finds a high degree of overlapping of bear cycles between stocks and indices and a high level of overlapping between the bear market and a fraction of stock with increasing stock prices. This leads to the conclusion that the stock performance and trading behaviour are widely diversified. Furthermore, the paper finds that the same industry may have different overlapping intervals of bull or bear cycles in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Firms with different sizes could have different overlapping intervals with bull or bear cycles. Originality/value: This paper fills the literature gap by establishing the cyclical behaviour of stock markets.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Implied volatility smiles, option mispricing and net buying pressure : evidence around the global financial crisis

Using the recent global financial crisis as an exogenous setting, we examine the presence and source of implied volatility smile phenomena in Australian S&P ASX 200 index options. We find a pronounced implied volatility smile for index puts in both bull and bear markets and a smile for index calls in the bear but not bull market. Implied volatilities of out-of-the money puts tend to be upwards biased whilst those of calls tend to be downwards biased. We also find that the bias in implied volatilities yields excess returns based on unhedged and delta-neutral trading strategies, suggesting that implied volatilities are related to option mispricing. Net buying pressure from market participants appears to be a source of mispricing in the case of out-of-the-money index puts with excess demand particularly pronounced during the bull period before the global financial crisis unfolded.

No news is not good news: evidence from the intra-day return volatility–volume relationship in Shanghai Stock Exchange

Through this research, we find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon is reversed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange during bull markets. That is, volatility increases more with good news than with bad news. This evidence is inconsistent with the US markets. Further examination of this phenomenon reveals that the positive impact of good news on volatility is driven by the return-chasing behaviour of investors during bull markets. We also find that volatility increases after stock price declines in bear markets. After controlling for liquidity shifts, we observe similar patterns in volatility in both bull and bear markets. We posit that institutional and behavioural factors are the major driving forces of observed volatility patterns in the Chinese stock market.

Twitter and Sports : Football Fandom in Emerging and Established Markets

Twitter and other social media have become increasingly important tools for maintaining the relationships between fans and their idols across a range of activities, from politics and the arts to celebrity and sports culture. Twitter, Inc. itself has initiated several strategic approaches, especially to entertainment and sporting organisations; late in 2012, for example, a Twitter, Inc. delegation toured Australia in order to develop formal relationships with a number of key sporting bodies covering popular sports such as Australian Rules Football, A-League football (soccer), and V8 touring car racing, as well as to strengthen its connections with key Australian broadcasters and news organisations (Jackson & Christensen, 2012). Similarly, there has been a concerted effort between Twitter Germany and the German Bundesliga clubs and football association to coordinate the presence of German football on Twitter ahead of the 2012–2013 season: the Twitter accounts of almost all first-division teams now bear the official Twitter verification mark, and a system of ‘official’ hashtags for tweeting about individual games (combining the abbreviations of the two teams, e.g. #H96FCB) has also been instituted (Twitter auf Deutsch, 2012).

Distribution of benefits of irrigation induced technological changes and commodity markets : new evidence

A plethora of literature exists on irrigation development. However, only a few studies analyse the distributional issues associated with irrigation induced technological changes (IITC) in the context of commodity markets. Furthermore, these studies deal with only the theoretical arguments and to date no proper investigation has been conducted to examine the long-term benefits of adopting modern irrigation technology. This study investigates the long-term benefit changes of irrigation induced technological changes using data from Sri Lanka with reference to rice farming. The results show that (1) adopting modern technology on irrigation increases the overall social welfare through consumption of a larger quantity at a lower cost (2) the magnitude, sensitivity and distributional gains depend on the price elasticity of demand and supply as well as the size of the marketable surplus (3) non-farm sector gains are larger than farm sector gains (4) the distribution of the benefits among different types of producers depend on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated areas as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (5) selective technological adoption and subsidies have a detrimental effect on the welfare of other producers who do not enjoy the same benefits (6) the short-term distributional effects are more severe than the long-term effects among different groups of farmers.

Empowerment and role stress in the human interface between the firm and its markets

Frontline employees constitute one of the key interfaces that service organisations have with their markets. Many strategies to enhance the ability of these employees to satisfy the needs of customers have been proposed. Amongst these, empowering employees has been suggested to enhance the customer orientation of the firm and consequently its effectiveness in serving the market. However, the impact of empowerment in service organisations remains somewhat contentious. This paper examines the role of empowerments an organisational service strategy and identifies its consequences for role stress, job satisfaction and the willingness of service employees to serve their customers.

Managing Work, Hedonism and 'the Borderline' Between the Legal and Illegal Markets: Two Case Studies of Recreational Heavy Drug Users

In the context of cultural and/or differential ‘normalisation’ of certain forms of drug use, this article describes two case-studies of heavy recreational drug users. The daily lives of these users blur the line between the legal and the illegal; their drug trading is generally as a consumer and ‘friend of a friend’ small dealer in the low-level market. In the first case, problems with management of employment, time and financial budgeting are described; in the second case, such management is accomplished. Discussion refers to: differences between the two in relation to resources and vulnerability to risks, and to leisure/pleasure cultures of hedonism. The research agenda should pay more attention to users who seek to maintain a legitimate lifestyle but who develop problems managing work and their drug-related leisure. Understanding the consumer demand and dealing activity of such users is important in trying to develop a fuller understanding of drug markets.

China’s new creative strategy : the utilization of cultural soft power and new markets

This book examines different aspects of Asian popular culture, including films, TV, music, comedy, folklore, cultural icons, the Internet and theme parks. It raises important questions such as – What are the implications of popularity of Asian popular culture for globalization? Do regional forces impede the globalizing of cultures? Or does the Asian popular culture flow act as a catalyst or conveying channel for cultural globalization? Does the globalization of culture pose a threat to local culture? It addresses two seemingly contradictory and yet parallel processes in the circulation of Asian popular culture: the interconnectedness between Asian popular culture and western culture in an era of cultural globalization that turns subjects such as Pokémon, Hip Hop or Cosmopolitan into truly global phenomena, and the local derivatives and versions of global culture that are necessarily disconnected from their origins in order to cater for the local market. It thereby presents a collective argument that, whilst local social formations, and patterns of consumption and participation in Asia are still very much dependent on global cultural developments and the phenomena of modernity, yet such dependence is often concretized, reshaped and distorted by the local media to cater for the local market. Contents: Introduction: Asian Popular Culture: The Global (Dis)continuity Anthony Y.H. Fung Part 1: The Dominance of Global Continuity: Cultural Localization and Adaptation 1. One Region, Two Modernities: Disneyland in Tokyo and Hong Kong Micky Lee and Anthony Y.H. Fung 2. Comic Travels: Disney Publishing in the People’s Republic of China Jennifer Altehenger 3. When Chinese Youth Meet Harry Potter: Translating Consumption and Middle Class Identification John Nguyet Erni 4.New Forms of Transborder Visuality in Urban China: Saving Face for Magazine Covers Eric Kit-Wai Ma 5. Cultural Consumption and Masculinity: A Case Study of GQ Magazine Covers in Taiwan Hong-Chi Shiau Part 2: Global Discontinuity: The Local Absorption of Global Culture 6. An Unlocalized and Unglobalized Subculture: English Language Independent Music in Singapore Kai Khiun Liew and Shzr Ee Tan 7. The Localized Production of Jamaican Music in Thailand Viriya Sawangchot 8. Consuming Online Games in Taiwan: Global Games and Local Market Lai-Chi Chen 9. The Rise of the Korean Cinema in Inbound and Outbound Globalization Shin Dong Kim Part 3: Cultural Domestication: A New Form of Global Continuity 10. Pocket Capitalism and Virtual Intimacy: Pokémon as a Symptom of Post-Industrial Youth Culture Anne Allison 11. Playing the Global Game: Japan Brand and Globalization Kukhee Choo Part 4: China as a Rising Market: Cultural Antagonism and Globalization 12. China’s New Creative Strategy: The Utilization of Cultural Soft Power and New Markets Michael Keane and Bonnie Liu 13. Renationalizing Hong Kong Cinema: The Gathering Force of the Mainland Market Michael Curtin

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.