Cool Roofs for improving thermal performance of EU office buildings: an investigation for different climates and building layouts

Cool materials are characterized by having a high solar reflectance r – which is able to reduce heat gains during daytime - and a high thermal emissivity ε that enables them to dissipate the heat absorbed throughout the day during night. Despite the concept of cool roofs - i.e. the application of cool materials to roof surfaces - is well known in US since 1990s, many studies focused on their performance in both residential and commercial sectors under various climatic conditions for US countries, while only a few case studies are analyzed in EU countries. The present work aims at analyzing the thermal benefits due to their application to existing office buildings located in EU countries. Indeed, due to their weight in the existing buildings stock, as well as the very low rate of new buildings construction, the retrofit of office buildings is a topic of great concern worldwide. After an in-depth characterization of the existing buildings stock in the EU, the book gives an insight into roof energy balance due to different technological solutions, showing in which cases and to what extent cool roofs are preferable. A detailed description of the physical properties of cool materials and their availability on the market provides a solid background for the parametric analysis carried out by means of detailed numerical models that aims at evaluating cool roofs performance for various climates and office buildings configurations. With the help of dynamic simulations, the thermal behavior of representative office buildings of the existing EU buildings stock is assessed in terms of thermal comfort and energy needs for air conditioning. The results, which consider several variations of building features that may affect the resulting energy balance, show how cool roofs are an effective strategy for reducing overheating occurrences and thus improving thermal comfort in any climate. On the other hand, potential heating penalties due to a reduction in the incoming heat fluxes through the roof are taken into account, as well as the aging process of cool materials. Finally, an economic analysis of the best performing models shows the boundaries for their economic convenience.

Cost-efficient one-part alkali-activated mortars with low global warming potential for floor heating systems applications

Increasing building energy efficiency is one the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. The use of thermal insulation materials mitigates heat loss in buildings, therefore minimising heat energy needs. In recent years, several papers were published on the subject of foam alkali-activated cements with enhanced thermal conductivity. However, on those papers cost analysis was strangely avoided. This paper presents experimental results on one-part alkali-activated cements. It also includes global warming potential assessment and cost analysis. Foam one-part alkali-activated cements cost simulations considering two carbon dioxide social costs scenarios are also included. The results show that one-part alkali-activated cements mixtures based on 26%OPC + 58.3%FA + 8%CS + 7.7%CH and 3.5% hydrogen peroxide constitute a promising cost-efficient (67 euro/m3), thermal insulation solution for floor heating systems. This mixture presents a low global warming potential of 443 KgCO2eq/m3. The results confirm that in both carbon dioxide social cost scenarios the mixture 26 OPC + 58.3 FA + 8 CS + 7.7 CH with 3.5% hydrogen peroxide foaming agent is still the most cost efficient.

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Different approaches on seed germination to look into global warming effects on Araucaria angustifolia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of ocean acidification and global warming on reef bioerosion-lessons from a clionaid sponge

Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis-one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges' bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion's share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012

Date of Acceptance: 16/12/2014 Acknowledgements: This work was carried out with generous funding by the Governments of Germany (GCP/GLO/286/GER) and Norway (GCP/GLO/325/NOR) to the ‘Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potential from Agriculture’ Project of the FAO Climate, Energy and Tenure Division. P. Smith is a Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award holder, and his input contributes to the University of Aberdeen Environment and Food Security Theme and to Scotland's ClimateXChange. J. House was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. The FAO Statistics Division maintains the FAOSTAT Emissions database with regular program funds allocated through Strategic Objective 6. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Dynamical analysis of the global warming

Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.