The exhaustion of the brazilian growth cycle

O Brasil recebeu muita atenção na última década, sua ascensão ao status de grande potência e uma das maiores economias mundiais tem sido enfatizada. No entanto, existem sinais de que essa prosperidade recente está chegando ao fim, sugerindo que houve um excesso de otimismo em relação ao aparente sucesso econômico do país e a possiblidade de crescimento contínuo. O Brasil focou na exportação de produtos primários e em um modelo de crescimento baseado no consumo, que se tornaram as locomotivas da economia. Uma pujante economia mundial demandando produtos primários e um amplo e inexplorado mercado interno ajudam a explicar o crescimento brasileiro na década passada. Não obstante, esse modelo apresenta diversas limitações. A inflação, mais uma vez, está em alta e os gargalos que impedem o desenvolvimento econômico não foram resolvidos. O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que o atual ciclo de crescimento da economia brasileira está no fim. Dados de diversas fontes, nacionais e internacionais, serão usados para indicar que, novamente, o país teve um crescimento efêmero e não possui uma estrutura econômica adequada para promover o desenvolvimento de longo prazo. Uma breve análise dos fundamentos econômicos, clima de negócios e outros tópicos relacionados ao crescimento e desenvolvimento será apresentada, articulando dados e fatos para encontrar causas e explicações para a atual inversão de tendência econômica.

Finance-Led Growth Regime no Brasil: estatuto teórico, evidências empíricas e consequências macroeconômicas

This paper analyzes the Brazilian growth pattern during the post-liberalization period, emphasizing the structural links between finance and productive capital accumulation. The results indicate a finance-led growth regime in the period 2004-2008, under a very specific financialization process. The first part is a survey of the international literature, which defines the financialization concept and its relevance for understanding Brazilian economic problems. The next part provides a historical overview on the structural changes that made possible the development of financial-led regimes. The paper also applies an empirical analysis of some selected Brazilian macroeconomic indicators.

Historical origins of Brazilian relative backwardness

This paper relies on some data to identify the 19th century as the major period in which Brazil economy lagged behind some chosen benchmarking countries, as the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and some European periphery countries. To identify the reasons for this an exercise using immigration data was used to make a decomposition of the sources of growth of the proportion of the USA per capita GDP to the Brazilian one. The results indicate that the imported human capital was responsible for 59% to 88% of this total growth between 1820 and 1900.

Por que o Brasil não precisa de política industrial

This article discusses the convenience of adopting industrial policy in Brazil. We argue that the success of East Asian countries, usually explained by industrial policy, is mainly result of horizontal policies. We also show that there are not theoretical or empirical foundations in most of the arguments used to justify industrial policy and that industrial policy must be motivated by market failures. We briefly discuss what market failures theoretically justify industrial policy, what the empirical relevance of these failures and what the most adequate instruments to be used in case of public intervention. From this perspective, we analyze the Brazilian industrial policy, such as described in Brasil (2003). Finally, we conclude that horizontal policies, besides to be less subject to the influence of self-interested groups, have more potential to foster Brazilian growth.

Geração de energia elétrica a partir da concentração solar

The current world's need for clean and renewable energy sources aligned with the strong Brazilian growth looking to diversify its electric power generation sources, highly dependent on hydropower and petroleum encourages the implementation of technologies that reach this growth with diversity and cleaning. The sun energy source is considered inexhaustible and can meet the demand for energy through thermo solar plants to generate electricity. Several technologies are being studied and developed in the world and they can be used to generate electricity from the solar concentration, but in Brazil its use is still not found commercially. It is therefore essential to understand these technologies and develop knowledge about them so they can be implemented in Brazil. This work brings an overview of the thermo solar generation in Brazil, showing the different technologies and a thermodynamic simulation of one of such technologies considering a hybrid plant with complementary generation biomass, aiming at the generation of 1 MW in the Brazilian Northeast

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Dinâmica industrial, emprego e pobreza no Brasil, uma abordagem alternativa

Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.

Growth And Body Composition In Brazilian Female Rhythmic Gymnastics Athletes.

The aim was to analyse the physical growth and body composition of rhythmic gymnastics athletes relative to their level of somatic maturation. This was a cross-sectional study of 136 athletes on 23 teams from Brazil. Mass, standing height and sitting height were measured. Fat-free and fat masses, body fat percentages and ages of the predicted peak height velocity (PHV) were calculated. The z scores for mass were negative during all ages according to both WHO and Brazilian references, and that for standing height were also negative for all ages according to WHO reference but only until 12 years old according to Brazilian reference. The mean age of the predicted PHV was 12.1 years. The mean mass, standing and sitting heights, body fat percentage, fat-free mass and fat mass increased significantly until 4 to 5 years after the age of the PHV. Menarche was reached in only 26% of these athletes and mean age was 13.2 years. The mass was below the national reference standards, and the standing height was below only for the international reference, but they also had late recovery of mass and standing height during puberty. In conclusion, these athletes had a potential to gain mass and standing height several years after PHV, indicating late maturation.

Growth-active gibberellins overcome the very slow shoot growth of Hancornia speciosa, an important fruit tree from the Brazilian ""Cerrado""

Shoot elongation of Hancornia speciosa, an endangered tree from the Brazilian savannah ""Cerrado"", is very slow, thus limiting nursery production of plants. Gibberellins (GAs) A(1), A(3), and A(5), and two inhibitors of GA biosynthesis, trinexapac-ethyl and ancymidol were applied to shoots of Hancornia seedlings. GA(1) and GA(3) significantly stimulated shoot elongation, while GA(5) had no significant effect. Trinexapac-ethyl and ancymidol, both at 100 A mu g per seedling, inhibited shoot elongation up to 45 days after treatment, though the effect was statistically significant only for ancymidol. Somewhat surprisingly, exogenous GA(3) more effectively stimulated shoot elongation in SD-grown plants, than in LD-grown plants. The results from exogenous application of GAs and inhibitors of GA biosynthesis imply that Hancornia shoot growth is controlled by GAs, and that level of endogenous growth-active GAs is likely to be the limiting factor for shoot elongation in Hancornia. Application of GAs thus offer a practical method for nursery production of Hancornia seedlings for outplanting into the field.

High prevalence of pituitary magnetic resonance abnormalities and gene mutations in a cohort of Brazilian children with growth hormone deficiency and response to treatment

Data were retrospectively collected from 69 Brazilian patients (45 boys) with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) who received exogenous growth hormone (GH) for a median duration of 4 years (range 1-13 years). Forty-two patients had multiple pituitary hormone deficiencies and 27 had isolated GHD. Peak GH was <7 ng/ml (IRMA) or <3.2 ng/ml (IFMA) after two stimulation tests.. Therapy was started at median age of 10.0 years (range 2.2-21.6 years), bone age of 5.8 years (0.5-13.5 years) and height standard deviation score -4.4 (range -9.3 to -1.6). MRI revealed pituitary abnormalities in 87% of patients. Homozygous mutations in PROP-1, GHRH-R, GH-1 or HESX-1 genes were found in 12 patients. Mean height velocities were 3.3 pretreatment and 10.3, 7.8, 7.4 and 6.4 cm/yr, respectively, during 1-4 years of treatment with GH. In conclusion, the high prevalence (96%) of genetic and/or pituitary abnormalities probably reflects the stringent diagnostic criteria used, and GH replacement resulted in significant catch-up growth.

PRETERM BIRTH AND FETAL GROWTH RESTRICTION IN HIV-INFECTED BRAZILIAN PREGNANT WOMEN

Introduction: Maternal HIV infection and related co-morbidities may have two outstanding consequences to fetal health: mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and adverse perinatal outcomes. After Brazilian success in reducing MTCT, the attention must now be diverted to the potentially increased risk for preterm birth (PTB) and intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR). Objective: To determine the prevalence of PTB and IUGR in low income, antiretroviral users, publicly assisted, HIV-infected women and to verify its relation to the HIV infection stage. Patients and Methods: Out of 250 deliveries from HIV-infected mothers that delivered at a tertiary public university hospital in the city of Vitória, state of Espírito Santo, Southeastern Brazil, from November 2001 to May 2012, 74 single pregnancies were selected for study, with ultrasound validated gestational age (GA) and data on birth dimensions: fetal weight (FW), birth length (BL), head and abdominal circumferences (HC, AC). The data were extracted from clinical and pathological records, and the outcomes summarized as proportions of preterm birth (PTB, < 37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW, < 2500g) and small (SGA), adequate (AGA) and large (LGA) for GA, defined as having a value below, between or beyond the ±1.28 z/GA score, the usual clinical cut-off to demarcate the 10th and 90th percentiles. Results: PTB was observed in 17.5%, LBW in 20.2% and SGA FW, BL, HC and AC in 16.2%, 19.1%, 13.8%, and 17.4% respectively. The proportions in HIV-only and AIDS cases were: PTB: 5.9 versus 27.5%, LBW: 14.7% versus 25.0%, SGA BW: 17.6% versus 15.0%, BL: 6.0% versus 30.0%, HC: 9.0% versus 17.9%, and AC: 13.3% versus 21.2%; only SGA BL attained a significant difference. Out of 15 cases of LBW, eight (53.3%) were preterm only, four (26.7%) were SGA only, and three (20.0%) were both PTB and SGA cases. A concomitant presence of, at least, two SGA dimensions in the same fetus was frequent. Conclusions: The proportions of preterm birth and low birth weight were higher than the local and Brazilian prevalence and a trend was observed for higher proportions of SGA fetal dimensions than the expected population distribution in this small casuistry of newborn from the HIV-infected, low income, antiretroviral users, and publicly assisted pregnant women. A trend for higher prevalence of PTB, LBW and SGA fetal dimensions was also observed in infants born to mothers with AIDS compared to HIV-infected mothers without AIDS.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

Daldinia eschscholtzii (Ascomycota, Xylariaceae) isolated from the Brazilian Amazon: taxonomic features and mycelial growth conditions

The Amazon has a high diversity of fungi, including species of the genus Daldinia (Ascomycota, Xylariaceae), which produce secondary metabolites with recognized nematicidal and antimicrobial activity. The ecological role of Daldinia is important, as stromata serve as refuges to many insects and arthropodes, and the fungi contribute to the degradation of vegetable organic matter. The aim of this study was to analyze the taxonomic features and mycelial growth conditions in vitro of a Daldinia specimen collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Morphological and molecular studies of the fungus identified it as D. eschscholtzii. To evaluate mycelial growth, we cultivated the fungus at 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 °C in malt extract-peptone agar (MEPA), malt extract-peptone (MEP), potato dextrose (PD), and minimum medium (MM). The best mycelial growth occurred at 35 °C, although the greatest amount of biomass was obtained at 25 °C and 30 °C. PD proved to be the best medium for biomass production.

Relative growth of Uca burgersi (Crustacea, Ocypodidae) from two mangroves in the southeastern Brazilian coast

The relative growth of the fiddler crab Uca burgersi Holthuis, 1967 was analyzed in two populations from different mangroves (Ubatumirim and Cavalo rivers) in the southeastern Brazilian coast, monthly sampled from May, 2001 to April, 2002. The population from a high productivity level mangrove reaches the sexual maturity in larger sizes than the population from a less productive site. This results can be attributed to the greater amount of nutrients found in the Cavalo than in Ubatumirim mangrove.

Relative growth and morphological sexual maturity of Chasmagnathus granulatus (Crustacea, Varunidae) from a mangrove area in southeastern Brazilian coast

The relative growth and morphological sexual maturity of Chasmagnathus granulatus Dana, 1851 are presented for the first time to a mangrove population. The crabs were obtained during low tide periods, in the mangrove of Jabaquara Beach, Paraty, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. All crabs in intermolt stage were sexed and had their body parts measured as follows: body height (BH), carapace length (CL) and width (CW), major cheliped propodus height (PH) and length (PL) for each sex, gonopod length (GL) and abdomen width (AW) for males and females, respectively. The relative growth was described using the allometric equation y=ax b and the size at onset sexual maturity was achieved using the software Mature I. The size of specimens ranged from 4.1 mm to 39.5 mm CW. The growth pattern was different between sexes in the cheliped relationships; the relationships BH vs. CW evidenced positive allometry for juveniles; PL vs. CW and PH vs. CW positive allometry for most crabs except juvenile females; AW vs. CW and GL vs. CW evidenced positive allometry for juveniles and isometry for adults. The relationships that best indicated the change from the juvenile to the adult phase were PH vs. CW for males and AW vs. CW for females. The size in which 50% of males from this population are mature is at 19.7 mm of CW (F=144.14; p<0.05) and for females it is at 19.2 mm of CW (F=166.54; p<0.05). The sizes obtained in this mangrove population are larger than those from previous studies, that could be attributed to a species plasticity concerning the habitat structure.