Intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral operator-based approach for black-start decision-making

Determining the optimal of black-start strategies is very important for speeding the restoration speed of a power system after a global blackout. Most existing black-start decision-making methods are based on the assumption that all indexes are independent of each other, and little attention has been paid to the group decision-making method which is more reliable. Given this background, the intuitionistic fuzzy set and further intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral operator are presented, and a black-start decision-making method based on this integral operator is presented. Compared to existing methods, the proposed algorithm cannot only deal with the relevance among the indexes, but also overcome some shortcomings of the existing methods. Finally, an example is used to demonstrate the proposed method. © 2012 The Institution of Engineering and Technology.

A new approach for power system black-start decision-making with vague set theory

Power system restoration after a large area outage involves many factors, and the procedure is usually very complicated. A decision-making support system could then be developed so as to find the optimal black-start strategy. In order to evaluate candidate black-start strategies, some indices, usually both qualitative and quantitative, are employed. However, it may not be possible to directly synthesize these indices, and different extents of interactions may exist among these indices. In the existing black-start decision-making methods, qualitative and quantitative indices cannot be well synthesized, and the interactions among different indices are not taken into account. The vague set, an extended version of the well-developed fuzzy set, could be employed to deal with decision-making problems with interacting attributes. Given this background, the vague set is first employed in this work to represent the indices for facilitating the comparisons among them. Then, a concept of the vague-valued fuzzy measure is presented, and on that basis a mathematical model for black-start decision-making developed. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method could deal with the interactions among indices and more reasonably represent the fuzzy information. Finally, an actual power system is served for demonstrating the basic features of the developed model and method.

Analysis and optimisation of the preferences of decision-makers in black-start group decision-making

As the first stage of power system restoration after a blackout, an optimal black-start scheme is very important for speeding up the whole restoration procedure. Up to now, much research work has been done on generating or selecting an optimal black-start scheme by a single round of decision-making. However, less attention has been paid for improving the final decision-making results through a multiple-round decision-making procedure. In the group decision-making environment, decision-making results evaluated by different black-start experts may differ significantly with each other. Thus, the consistency of black-start decision-making results could be deemed as an important indicator in assessing the black-start group decision-making results. Given this background, an intuitionistic fuzzy distance-based method is presented to analyse the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Moreover, the weights of black-start indices as well as the weights of decision-making experts are modified in order to optimise the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Finally, an actual example is served for demonstrating the proposed method.

Sectionalizing strategies for minimizing outage durations of critical loads in parallel power system restoration with bi-level programming

Fast restoration of critical loads and non-black-start generators can significantly reduce the economic losses caused by power system blackouts. In a parallel power system restoration scenario, the sectionalization of restoration subsystems plays a very important role in determining the pickup of critical loads before synchronization. Most existing research mainly focuses on the startup of non-black-start generators. The restoration of critical loads, especially the loads with cold load characteristics, has not yet been addressed in optimizing the subsystem divisions. As a result, sectionalized restoration subsystems cannot achieve the best coordination between the pickup of loads and the ramping of generators. In order to generate sectionalizing strategies considering the pickup of critical loads in parallel power system restoration scenarios, an optimization model considering power system constraints, the characteristics of the cold load pickup and the features of generator startup is proposed in this paper. A bi-level programming approach is employed to solve the proposed sectionalizing model. In the upper level the optimal sectionalizing problem for the restoration subsystems is addressed, while in the lower level the objective is to minimize the outage durations of critical loads. The proposed sectionalizing model has been validated by the New-England 39-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system. Further comparisons with some existing methods are carried out as well.

Parameter estimation for transformer modeling

Large Power transformers, an aging and vulnerable part of our energy infrastructure, are at choke points in the grid and are key to reliability and security. Damage or destruction due to vandalism, misoperation, or other unexpected events is of great concern, given replacement costs upward of $2M and lead time of 12 months. Transient overvoltages can cause great damage and there is much interest in improving computer simulation models to correctly predict and avoid the consequences. EMTP (the Electromagnetic Transients Program) has been developed for computer simulation of power system transients. Component models for most equipment have been developed and benchmarked. Power transformers would appear to be simple. However, due to their nonlinear and frequency-dependent behaviors, they can be one of the most complex system components to model. It is imperative that the applied models be appropriate for the range of frequencies and excitation levels that the system experiences. Thus, transformer modeling is not a mature field and newer improved models must be made available. In this work, improved topologically-correct duality-based models are developed for three-phase autotransformers having five-legged, three-legged, and shell-form cores. The main problem in the implementation of detailed models is the lack of complete and reliable data, as no international standard suggests how to measure and calculate parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation methods are developed here to determine the parameters of a given model in cases where available information is incomplete. The transformer nameplate data is required and relative physical dimensions of the core are estimated. The models include a separate representation of each segment of the core, including hysteresis of the core, λ-i saturation characteristic, capacitive effects, and frequency dependency of winding resistance and core loss. Steady-state excitation, and de-energization and re-energization transients are simulated and compared with an earlier-developed BCTRAN-based model. Black start energization cases are also simulated as a means of model evaluation and compared with actual event records. The simulated results using the model developed here are reasonable and more correct than those of the BCTRAN-based model. Simulation accuracy is dependent on the accuracy of the equipment model and its parameters. This work is significant in that it advances existing parameter estimation methods in cases where the available data and measurements are incomplete. The accuracy of EMTP simulation for power systems including three-phase autotransformers is thus enhanced. Theoretical results obtained from this work provide a sound foundation for development of transformer parameter estimation methods using engineering optimization. In addition, it should be possible to refine which information and measurement data are necessary for complete duality-based transformer models. To further refine and develop the models and transformer parameter estimation methods developed here, iterative full-scale laboratory tests using high-voltage and high-power three-phase transformer would be helpful.

Development of distributed generation infrastructure for microgrid connectivity to operational power systems

Distributed Generation (DG) from alternate sources and smart grid technologies represent good solutions for the increase in energy demands. Employment of these DG assets requires solutions for the new technical challenges that are accompanied by the integration and interconnection into operational power systems. A DG infrastructure comprised of alternate energy sources in addition to conventional sources, is developed as a test bed. The test bed is operated by synchronizing, wind, photovoltaic, fuel cell, micro generator and energy storage assets, in addition to standard AC generators. Connectivity of these DG assets is tested for viability and for their operational characteristics. The control and communication layers for dynamic operations are developed to improve the connectivity of alternates to the power system. A real time application for the operation of alternate sources in microgrids is developed. Multi agent approach is utilized to improve stability and sequences of actions for black start are implemented. Experiments for control and stability issues related to dynamic operation under load conditions have been conducted and verified.

Examining the black box between stimulating regions and individual entrepreneurship

This paper seeks to investigate the link between the objective regional opportunity structure (captured by regional data) and individuals’ engagement in different stages in the venture creation process (intention to start a business and engagement in nascent entrepreneurship). We further investigate pathways through which a favourable regional environment could affect entrepreneurial intentions and the propensity to be a nascent entrepreneur. We combine individual level GEM-data for Western Germany with regional level data from the statistical office and use multi-level analysis to test our hypotheses. We find support for our contention that a favourable regional opportunity structure affects entrepreneurial intentions and engagement. As pathways between the region and individual behaviour serve the individual perception of founding opportunities and the individual social capital.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Abundance and biomass of zooplankton from 1986-1994 collected in front of Constanta city, Black Sea

The Est Constanta 1986-1994 dataset contains zooplankton data collected allong a 5 station transect in front of the city Constanta (44°10'N, 28°41.5'E - EC1; 44°10'N, 28°47'E - EC2; 44°10'N, 28°54'E - EC3; 44°10'N, 29°08'E - EC4; 44°10'N, 29°22'E - EC5). Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 5 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-25, 25-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Abundance of mesozooplankton in the western part of the Black Sea in summer 1998 during the National Monitoring Programme

The dataset is based on samples collected in the summer of 1998 in the Western Black Sea in front of Bulgaria coast. The whole dataset is composed of 69 samples (from 22 stations of National Monitoring Grid) with data of mesozooplankton species composition abundance and biomass. Samples were collected in discrete layers 0-10, 0-20, 0-50, 10-25, 25-50, 50-100 and from bottom up to the surface at depths depending on water column stratification and the thermocline depth. Zooplankton samples were collected with vertical closing Juday net,diameter - 36cm, mesh size 150 µm. Tows were performed from surface down to bottom meters depths in discrete layers. Samples were preserved by a 4% formaldehyde sea water buffered solution. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Mesozooplankton abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Lyudmila Kamburska using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972). Taxon-specific abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Copepods and Cladoceras were identified and enumerated; the other mesozooplankters were identified and enumerated at higher taxonomic level (commonly named as mesozooplankton groups). Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Lyudmila Kamburska using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972).

Abundance of mesozooplankton in the western part of the Black Sea in summer 2001 during the National Monitoring Programme of the Bulgarian Institute of Oceanography

The dataset is based on samples collected in the summer of 2001 in the Western Black Sea in front of Bulgaria coast (transects at c. Kaliakra and c. Galata). The whole dataset is composed of 26 samples (from 10 stations of National Monitoring Grid) with data of mesozooplankton species composition abundance and biomass. Samples were collected in discrete layers 0-10, 10-20, 10-25, 25-50, 50-75, 75-90. Zooplankton samples were collected with vertical closing Juday net,diameter - 36cm, mesh size 150 µm. Tows were performed from surface down to bottom meters depths in discrete layers. Samples were preserved by a 4% formaldehyde sea water buffered solution. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Mesozooplankton abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Lyudmila Kamburska and Kremena Stefanova using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972). Taxon-specific abundance: The collected material was analysed using the method of Domov (1959). Samples were brought to volume of 25-30 ml depending upon zooplankton density and mixed intensively until all organisms were distributed randomly in the sample volume. After that 5 ml of sample was taken and poured in the counting chamber which is a rectangle form for taxomomic identification and count. Copepods and Cladoceras were identified and enumerated; the other mesozooplankters were identified and enumerated at higher taxonomic level (commonly named as mesozooplankton groups). Large (> 1 mm body length) and not abundant species were calculated in whole sample. Counting and measuring of organisms were made in the Dimov chamber under the stereomicroscope to the lowest taxon possible. Taxonomic identification was done at the Institute of Oceanology by Lyudmila Kamburska and Kremena Stefanova using the relevant taxonomic literature (Mordukhay-Boltovskoy, F.D. (Ed.). 1968, 1969,1972).

(Table 1) Insoluble aerosol concentrations and vertical fluxes at the eastern shelf of the Black Sea during breeze circulation in October 1987

Amounts of aerosols transported to the shelf surface were calculated on the basis of in situ measurements of concentrations of eolian matter (insoluble aerosol fraction) and vertical fluxes of settling dust in five areas of the Black Sea shelf from the Danube delta to the Inguri River mouth. More than 8.3 mln t of eolian matter are annually transported from the land over the shelf of the former USSR. At the same time more than 5.4 mln t are supplied to the northwestern shelf area, 1.7 mln t are supplied to the Crimean area, about 0.8 mln t are supplied to the Kerch-Taman' area, and about 0.45 mln t are supplied to the Caucasian area.