A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Estimates of life expectancy gains from reducing/eliminating major causes of death in the USA: An update analysis for population in 2001--2008

Evaluation of the impact of a disease on life expectancy is an important part of public health. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) that can properly take into account the competing risks are an effective indicator for measuring the impact of the multiple causes of death. This study aimed to measure the PGLEs from reducing/eliminating the major causes of death in the USA from 2001 to 2008. To calculate the PGLEs due to the elimination of specific causes of death, the age-specific mortality rates for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer disease, kidney diseases and HIV/AIDS and life table constructing data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics, and the multiple decremental life tables were constructed. The PGLEs by elimination of heart disease, malignant neoplasms or HIV/AIDS continued decreasing from 2001 to 2008, but the PGLE by elimination of Alzheimer's disease or kidney diseases revealed increased trends. The PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of heart disease 2001–2008 were 0.336–0.299, 0.327–0.301, 0.344–0.295, 0.360–0.315, 0.349–0.317, 0.371–0.316,0.278–0.251, 0.272–0.255, and 0.282–0.246 respectively. Similarly, the PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or HIV/AIDS 2001–2008 were also uncovered, respectively. Most diseases affect specific population, such as, HIV/AIDS tends to have a greater impact on people of working age, heart disease and malignant neoplasms have a greater impact on people over 65 years of age, but Alzheimer's disease and kidney diseases have a greater impact on people over 75 years of age. To measure the impact of these diseases on life expectancy in people of working age, partial multiple decremental life tables were constructed and the PGLEs were computed by partial or complete elimination of various causes of death during the working years. Thus, the results of the study outlined a picture of how each single disease could affect the life expectancy in age-, race-, or sex-specific population in USA. Therefore, the findings would not only assist to evaluate current public health improvements, but also provide useful information for future research and disease control programs.^

Sudden Infant Death disparities: A systematic review on health education and policy recommendations for decreasing Sudden Infant Death in the African-American community

Objective: To perform a systematic review of the literature on SIDS and SUID deaths concentrated in the African-American community, describe health education and policy recommendations and recommend a new approach that may aid in decreasing the disparity of infant mortality in the African-American community. ^ Methods: The PubMed database was systematically searched to identify relevant articles for final review and analysis. Using the CASP 2006 system to critique literature, twelve articles were found that met inclusion and exclusion criteria. ^ Results: Evidence in the literature confirmed there was a current disparity among African Americans' infant mortality rates in comparison to other US ethnic groups. The underlying reasons for these disparities included the following maternal and infant characteristics: mothers younger than eighteen, having more than one live infant, having a high school education or less, never been married, and have infants born preterm or with low birth weight. Maternal smoking, substance abuse, and breastfeeding did not have a significant impact on infant sleep environments among African Americans. ^ Conclusion: Tailored health education programs at the community level, better access to pre-pregnancy and prenatal care, and increased maternal perception of risk that is relevant to the infants sleeping environment are all possible solutions that may decrease African American infant mortality rates.^

Chatterton, The black death, and Meriwether Lewis, three plays

Mode of access: Internet.

The crown book of the beautiful, the wonderful, and the wise : presenting in attractive forms some of the most notable things in poetic literature, in science and in art, in history and biography, in earth, sea and sky, in philosophy and music /

Title within ornamental border, title in red and black.

The influence of spirituality, race/ethnicity and religion on parent grief and mental health at one and three months after their infant's/child's death in the neonatal or pediatric intensive care unit

The death of an infant/child is one of the most devastating experiences for parents and immediately throws them into crisis. Spiritual and religious coping strategies may help parents with their loss. The purposes of this longitudinal study were to: (1) describe differences in bereaved parents' use of spiritual coping strategies across racial/ethnic and religious groups, mother/father dyads, and time—one (T1) and three (T2) months after the infant's/child's death in the neonatal (NICU) or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU), and (2) test the relationship between spiritual coping strategies and grief, mental health, and personal growth for mothers and fathers at T1 and T2. A sample of 126 Hispanic, Black/African American, and White parents of 119 deceased children completed the Spiritual Coping Strategies scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II, Impact of Events-Revised, Hogan Grief Reaction Checklist, and a demographic form at T1 and T2. Controlling for race and religion, spiritual coping was a strong predictor of lower grief, better mental health, and greater personal growth for mothers at T1 and T2 and lower grief for fathers at T1. The findings of this study will guide bereaved parents to effective strategies to help them cope with their early grief.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study.

To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study

Objective To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity.Design Multicenter cross-sectional study.Setting Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010.Population A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications.Methods The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women.Main outcome measures The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome.Results Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death).Conclusion Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

What are the similarities between stress, sudden cardiac death in Gallus gallus and sudden unexpected death in people with epilepsy

Individuals with epilepsy are at higher risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), responsible for 7.5% to 17% of all deaths in epilepsy. Many factors are current associated with SUDEP and possible effect of stress and cardiac arrhythmia are still not clear. Sudden death syndrome (SDS) in chickens is a disease characterized by an acute death of well-nourished and seeming healthy Gallus gallus after abrupt and brief flapping of their wings, similar to an epileptic seizure, with an incidence estimated as 0.5 to 5% in broiler chickens. A variety of nutritional and environmental factors have been included: but the exactly etiology of SDS is unknown. Studies had suggested that the hearts of broiler chickens are considerably more susceptible to arrhythmias and stress may induce ventricular arrhythmia and thus, sudden cardiac death. In this way, SDS in Gallus gallus could be an interesting model to study SUDEP.

Gravitational signature of Schwarzschild black holes in dynamical Chern-Simons gravity

Dynamical Chern-Simons gravity is an extension of general relativity in which the gravitational field is coupled to a scalar field through a parity-violating Chern-Simons term. In this framework, we study perturbations of spherically symmetric black hole spacetimes, assuming that the background scalar field vanishes. Our results suggest that these spacetimes are stable, and small perturbations die away as a ringdown. However, in contrast to standard general relativity, the gravitational waveforms are also driven by the scalar field. Thus, the gravitational oscillation modes of black holes carry imprints of the coupling to the scalar field. This is a smoking gun for Chern-Simons theory and could be tested with gravitational-wave detectors, such as LIGO or LISA. For negative values of the coupling constant, ghosts are known to arise, and we explicitly verify their appearance numerically. Our results are validated using both time evolution and frequency domain methods.