A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chatterton, The black death, and Meriwether Lewis, three plays

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Epidemic models with an infected-infectious period

The introduction of an infective-infectious period on the geographic spread of epidemics is considered in two different models. The classical evolution equations arising in the literature are generalized and the existence of epidemic wave fronts is revised. The asymptotic speed is obtained and improves previous results for the Black Death plague

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Persecution perpetuated: The medieval origins of anti-semitic violence in Nazi Germany

How persistent are cultural traits? This paper uses data on anti-Semitism in Germany and finds continuity at the local level over more than half a millennium. When the Black Death hit Europe in 1348-50, killing between one third and one half of the population, its cause was unknown. Many contemporaries blamed the Jews. Cities all over Germany witnessed mass killings of their Jewish population. At the same time, numerous Jewish communities were spared these horrors. We use plague pogroms as an indicator for medieval anti-Semitism. Pogroms during the Black Death are a strong and robust predictor of violence against Jews in the 1920s, and of votes for the Nazi Party. In addition, cities that saw medieval anti-Semitic violence also had higher deportation rates for Jews after 1933, were more likely to see synagogues damaged or destroyed in the Night of Broken Glass in 1938, and their inhabitants wrote more anti-Jewish letters to the editor of the Nazi newspaper Der Stürmer.

Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love

This paper argues that Malthusian regimes are capable of sustained changes in per capita incomes. Shifting mortality and fertility schedules can lead to different steady-state income levels, with long periods of growth during the transition. Europe checked the downward pressure on wages through late marriage, which reduced fertility, and a mortality regime that combined high death rates with high incomes. We argue that both emerged as a result of the Black Death.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

How the West "invented" fertility restriction

We analyze the rise of the first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility ? long before theDemographic Transition. The "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) raised the marriage age of women andensured that many remained celibate, thereby reducing childbirths by up to one third between the 14thand 18th century. To explain the rise of EMP we build a two-sector model of agricultural production ?grain and livestock. Women have a comparative advantage in the latter because plow agriculture requiresphysical strength. After the Black Death in 1348-50, land abundance triggered a shift towards the landintensivepastoral sector, improving female employment prospects. Because women working in animalhusbandry had to remain unmarried, more farm service spelled later marriages. The resulting reductionin fertility led to a new Malthusian steady state with lower population pressure and higher wages. Themodel can thus help to explain the divergence in income per capita between Europe and Asia long beforethe Industrial Revolution. Using detailed data from England after 1290, we provide strong evidence forour mechanism. Where pastoral agriculture dominated, more women worked as servants, and marriageoccurred markedly later. Overall, we estimate that pastoral farming raised female ages at first marriage bymore than 4 years.

Els remences de l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona (segles XIV i XV)

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és estudiar el funcionament real de la servitud catalana medieval. Per això s'estudien els homenatges i els cobraments dels mals usos rebuts i aplicats per l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona sobre els seus remences al llarg dels segles XIV i XV i, més concretament, entre 1331 i 1458. Aquestes dates han estat determinades per la documentació generada per l'esmentada institució benèfica. El primer llibre de comptes conservat és de l'any 1331. En aquests llibres de comptes els pabordes encarregats de gestionar l'Almoina hi consignaven tots els seus ingressos i totes les despeses. La data final també ha estat fixada per la documentació, perquè a partir d'aquest moment deixem de trobar constància escrita del pagament dels mals usos i de la prestació d'homenatges. La importància dels mals usos, és a dir, aquells pagaments que gravaven als serfs pel fet de ser-ho, a la Catalunya de la baixa edat mitjana és una qüestió fora de discussió. Bona part dels historiadors -Hinojosa, Vicens Vives, Freedman, etc.- atribueixen als mals usos, als homenatges i a la seva continuada exigència els dos alçaments remences contra les senyories feudals a partir de l'any 1462. Segons aquestes hipòtesis, la lluita per suprimir els mals usos i aconseguir la llibertat individual és la raó de les guerres remences de finals del segle XV. Com és sabut van quedar resoltes amb la Sentència Arbitral de Guadalupe, dictada pel rei Ferran II, que va suprimir definitivament la servitud de les terres catalanes. Malgrat la importància que els historiadors han concedit a l'existència dels mals usos i, sobretot, a la manca de llibertat dels remences, no hi ha estudis sistemàtics sobre la seva aplicació a la pràctica. Per això, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és estudiar tots els mals usos i tots els homenatges aplicats i rebuts per una sola senyoria -l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona-, els remences de la qual van participar activament en ambdues guerres i que és representativa, sense cap mena de dubte, del que succeïa en la diòcesi gironina. A més a més, cal assenyalar que l'estudi comprèn un període de temps que inclou circumstàncies tan cabdals com la pesta negra i la resta de catàstrofes del segle XIV i el segle XV fins a la primera guerra remença. Com és sabut, els remences catalans estaven sotmesos a sis mals usos: la redempció de persones (mitjançant la qual aconseguien la seva llibertat), les firmes d'espoli forçades (que havien de pagar quan es casaven en determinades circumstàncies), la intèstia i l'eixòrquia (que gravaven la mort intestada i sense descendents), l'àrsia (que penalitzava la crema accidental del mas o la masada) i la cugúcia (exigida a les dones considerades adúlteres). Els remences confirmaven la seva dependència d'una senyoria en els corresponents homenatges o reconeixements de domini que havien de prestar quan n'eren requerits. Aquesta tesi consta de deu capítols a més d'una introducció (o primer capítol) i d'unes conclusions. El segon capítol és dedicat a la descripció de les fonts utilitzades, entre les que destaquen els llibres de comptes dels pabordes, i on queda prou palesa la importància del fet d'haver pogut disposar d'una excepcional font seriada, a més a més de pergamins. El tercer correspon a l'estudi de la institució tractada, que tenia terres a les actuals comarques del Gironès, La Selva, l'Alt i el Baix Empordà i el Pla de l'Estany. En el quart capítol hi analitzo els problemes generats a l'hora d' intentar conèixer el nombre de persones que eren pròpies de l'Almoina i saber de quins masos provenien. A continuació segueixen els quatre capítols que constitueixen el cos central de la tesi. Al seu torn, la seva anàlisi va ocasionar l'elaboració dels tres darrers. En el capítol cinquè s'estudien tots els homenatges rebuts per l'Almoina entre els anys 1300 i 1457, tant els que figuren en els manuals de comptes com els conservats en pergamí. En total, tenim documentats 1258 dels homenatges o reconeixements de domini rebuts per la institució. El capítol següent és dedicat a l'estudi de les firmes d'espoli forçades i als 424 cobraments fets per l'Almoina per aquest concepte, entre els anys 1331 i 1452. En els capítols setè i vuitè, s'analitzen els mals usos que gravaven les sortides del domini, tant les voluntàries com les involuntàries. El resultat obtingut és que entre 1331 i 1458, la institució va concedir la llibertat a 557 persones bona part de les quals van tornar a adscriure's de nou a una altra senyoria. El nombre d'aquests sortides contrasta amb el cobrament per part de l'Almoina, entre aquestes mateixes dates, de només 105 intèsties i eixòrquies; dit d'una altra manera, fins l'any 1445 va ingressar diners en concepte de 23 intèsties, fins el 1458 per 68 eixòrquies i fins el 1406 per 14 intèsties i/o eixòrquies. Els capítols 9 i 10 tracten del significat i les limitacions que comportaven els mals usos, com a trets definitoris de la pertinença a la servitud, sobre les persones que hi estaven sotmeses. Finalment, el darrer capítol analitza el compliment de la sentència dictada pel rei Alfons el Magnànim l'any 1457 en la que suspenia la servitud al Principat de Catalunya. Queda fora de dubte que pocs anys abans de la primera guerra remença els homenatges i els mals usos havien deixat d'aplicar-se.

Work and the adolescent in medieval England (AD 900-1550). The osteological evidence

What was it like to be a teenager in medieval England? Despite the fact that medieval society often singled young apprentices and workers out for comment, their study has been largely neglected in medieval archaeology. The skeletal remains of 4940 adolescents (6.6-25 years) from 151 sites in medieval England was compiled from a combination of primary data collection and secondary data from published and unpublished skeletal reports and on-line databases. The aim was to explore whether apprentices could be identified in the archaeological record and if so, at what age they started work and what impact occupation had on their health. The data were divided into urban and rural groups, dating from before and after the Black Death of AD 1348-9, and before the Industrial Revolution. A shift in the demographic pattern of urban and rural adolescents was identified after the Black Death, with a greater number of young females residing in the urban contexts after 14 years. The average age of males increased from 12 years to 14 years after the plague years, contrary to what we might expect from the documentary sources. There were higher rates of spinal and joint disease in the urban adolescents and their injuries were more widespread than their rural counterparts. Domestic service was the potential cause of the greater strain on the knees and backs of the urban females, with interpersonal violence evident in the young urban males. Overall, it was the urban females that carried the burden of respiratory and infectious diseases suggesting they may have been the most vulnerable group. This study has demonstrated the value of adolescent skeletal remains in revealing information about their health and working life, before and after the Black Death.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

COMMENSAL RODENTS

The evolution of effective rodent control has been greater in the past 20 years than during the previous 200 years. Mankind need no longer fear the "black death," typhus, and other rodent-borne diseases. Likewise, there is no longer any reason why we must bear the cost of serious economic losses because of commensal rodent damage to property. Unfortunately, the latter still totals many millions of dollars each year. Damage and contamination of food products by house mice now probably equals or exceeds that caused by rats.