On the pricing of bivariate options in the presence of a discrete dividend payment

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master's Double Degree in Finance from the NOVA School of Business and Economics / Masters Degree in Economics from Insper

Univariate and bivariate truncated von Mises distributions

In this article we study the univariate and bivariate truncated von Mises distribution, as a generalization of the von Mises distribution (\cite{jupp1989}), (\cite{mardia2000directional}). This implies the addition of two or four new truncation parameters in the univariate and, bivariate cases, respectively. The results include the definition, properties of the distribution and maximum likelihood estimators for the univariate and bivariate cases. Additionally, the analysis of the bivariate case shows how the conditional distribution is a truncated von Mises distribution, whereas the marginal distribution that generalizes the distribution introduced in \cite{repe}. From the viewpoint of applications, we test the distribution with simulated data, as well as with data regarding leaf inclination angles (\cite{safari}) and dihedral angles in protein chains (\cite{prote}). This research aims to assert this probability distribution as a potential option for modelling or simulating any kind of phenomena where circular distributions are applicable.\par

Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.

An investigation into the barriers to the implementation of automation and robotics technologies in the construction industry

The rising problems associated with construction such as decreasing quality and productivity, labour shortages, occupational safety, and inferior working conditions have opened the possibility of more revolutionary solutions within the industry. One prospective option is in the implementation of innovative technologies such as automation and robotics, which has the potential to improve the industry in terms of productivity, safety and quality. The construction work site could, theoretically, be contained in a safer environment, with more efficient execution of the work, greater consistency of the outcome and higher level of control over the production process. By identifying the barriers to construction automation and robotics implementation in construction, and investigating ways in which to overcome them, contributions could be made in terms of better understanding and facilitating, where relevant, greater use of these technologies in the construction industry so as to promote its efficiency. This research aims to ascertain and explain the barriers to construction automation and robotics implementation by exploring and establishing the relationship between characteristics of the construction industry and attributes of existing construction automation and robotics technologies to level of usage and implementation in three selected countries; Japan, Australia and Malaysia. These three countries were chosen as their construction industry characteristics provide contrast in terms of culture, gross domestic product, technology application, organisational structure and labour policies. This research uses a mixed method approach of gathering data, both quantitative and qualitative, by employing a questionnaire survey and an interview schedule; using a wide range of sample from management through to on-site users, working in a range of small (less than AUD0.2million) to large companies (more than AUD500million), and involved in a broad range of business types and construction sectors. Detailed quantitative (statistical) and qualitative (content) data analysis is performed to provide a set of descriptions, relationships, and differences. The statistical tests selected for use include cross-tabulations, bivariate and multivariate analysis for investigating possible relationships between variables; and Kruskal-Wallis and Mann Whitney U test of independent samples for hypothesis testing and inferring the research sample to the construction industry population. Findings and conclusions arising from the research work which include the ranking schemes produced for four key areas of, the construction attributes on level of usage; barrier variables; differing levels of usage between countries; and future trends, have established a number of potential areas that could impact the level of implementation both globally and for individual countries.

Role of corporate governance in mitigating the selective disclosure of executive stock option information

We examine the nature and extent of statutory executive stock option (ESO) disclosures by Australian listed companies over the 2001 to 2004 period, and the influence of corporate governance mechanisms on these disclosures. Our results show a progressive increase in overall compliance from 2001 to 2004. However, despite the improved compliance, the results reveal managements’ continued reluctance to disclose more sensitive ESO information. Factors associated with good internal governance, including board independence, audit committee independence and effectiveness, and compensation committee independence and effectiveness are found to contribute to improved compliance. Similarly, certain external governance factors are associated with improved disclosure, including external auditor quality, shareholder activism (as proxied by companies identified as poor performers by the Australian Shareholders’ Association), and regulatory intervention.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Don’t judge a superannuation default investment option by its name

With the massive decline in savings arising from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it is timely to review superannuation fund investment and disclosure strategies in the lead-up to the crisis. Accordingly, this study examines differences among superannuation funds’ default investment options in terms of naming and framing over three years from 2005 to 2007, as presented in product disclosure statements (PDSs). The findings indicate that default options are becoming more alike regardless of their name, and consequently, members may face increasing difficulties in distinguishing between balanced and growth-named default options when comparing them across superannuation funds. Comparability is also likely to be constrained by variations in the framing of default options presented in investment option menus in PDSs. These findings highlight the need for standardisation of default option definitions and disclosures to ensure descriptive accuracy, transparency and comparability.

Assignment of reversion on put option contained in a lease : what is the effect?

Justice Mullins of the Queensland Supreme Court recently considered the status of a put option contained in a registered lease in circumstances where there was an assignment of the reversion. The matter arose for determination in Denham Bros Ltd v W Freestone Leasing Pty Ltd [2002] QSC 307. The decision is of interest as a lease containing a put option, exercisable by a landlord, is perhaps less commonly encountered than a lease containing a call option, exercisable by a tenant.

Design of experiments for bivariate binary responses modelled by Copula functions

Optimal design for generalized linear models has primarily focused on univariate data. Often experiments are performed that have multiple dependent responses described by regression type models, and it is of interest and of value to design the experiment for all these responses. This requires a multivariate distribution underlying a pre-chosen model for the data. Here, we consider the design of experiments for bivariate binary data which are dependent. We explore Copula functions which provide a rich and flexible class of structures to derive joint distributions for bivariate binary data. We present methods for deriving optimal experimental designs for dependent bivariate binary data using Copulas, and demonstrate that, by including the dependence between responses in the design process, more efficient parameter estimates are obtained than by the usual practice of simply designing for a single variable only. Further, we investigate the robustness of designs with respect to initial parameter estimates and Copula function, and also show the performance of compound criteria within this bivariate binary setting.

Classification with a reject option using a hinge loss

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate loss—the φ-risk—also minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values.

Is flapless implant surgery a viable option in posterior maxilla? : a review

This article reviews the literature on the outcome of flapless surgery for dental implants in the posterior maxilla. The literature search was carried out in using the keywords: flapless, dental implants and maxilla. A hand search and Medline search were carried out on studies published between 1971 and 2011. The authors included research involving a minimum of 15 dental implants with a followup period of 1 year, an outcome measurement of implant survival, but excluded studies involving multiple simultaneous interventions, and studies with missing data. The Cochrane approach for cohort studies and Oxford Centre for Evidence- Based Medicine were applied. Of the 56 published papers selected, 14 papers on the flapless technique showed high overall implant survival rates. The prospective studies yielded 97.01% (95% CI: 90.72–99.0) while retrospective studies or case series illustrated 95.08% (95% CI: 91.0–97.93) survival. The average of intraoperative complications was 6.55% using the flapless procedure. The limited data obtained showed that flapless surgery in posterior maxilla areas could be a viable and predictable treatment method for implant placement. Flapless surgery tends to be more applicable in this area of the mouth. Further long-term clinical controlled studies are needed.