Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Optimal dose levels in screening chest CT for unimpaired detection and volumetry of lung nodules, with and without computer assisted detection at minimal patient radiation

OBJECTIVES The aim of this phantom study was to minimize the radiation dose by finding the best combination of low tube current and low voltage that would result in accurate volume measurements when compared to standard CT imaging without significantly decreasing the sensitivity of detecting lung nodules both with and without the assistance of CAD. METHODS An anthropomorphic chest phantom containing artificial solid and ground glass nodules (GGNs, 5-12 mm) was examined with a 64-row multi-detector CT scanner with three tube currents of 100, 50 and 25 mAs in combination with three tube voltages of 120, 100 and 80 kVp. This resulted in eight different protocols that were then compared to standard CT sensitivity (100 mAs/120 kVp). For each protocol, at least 127 different nodules were scanned in 21-25 phantoms. The nodules were analyzed in two separate sessions by three independent, blinded radiologists and computer-aided detection (CAD) software. RESULTS The mean sensitivity of the radiologists for identifying solid lung nodules on a standard CT was 89.7% ± 4.9%. The sensitivity was not significantly impaired when the tube and current voltage were lowered at the same time, except at the lowest exposure level of 25 mAs/80 kVp [80.6% ± 4.3% (p = 0.031)]. Compared to the standard CT, the sensitivity for detecting GGNs was significantly lower at all dose levels when the voltage was 80 kVp; this result was independent of the tube current. The CAD significantly increased the radiologists' sensitivity for detecting solid nodules at all dose levels (5-11%). No significant volume measurement errors (VMEs) were documented for the radiologists or the CAD software at any dose level. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest a CT protocol with 25 mAs and 100 kVp is optimal for detecting solid and ground glass nodules in lung cancer screening. The use of CAD software is highly recommended at all dose levels.

Early versus delayed fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine in patients with HIV and tuberculosis in Tanzania.

Fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine (ABC/3TC/ZDV) among HIV-1 and tuberculosis (TB)-coinfected patients was evaluated and outcomes between early vs. delayed initiation were compared. In a randomized, pilot study conducted in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, HIV-infected inpatients with smear-positive TB and total lymphocyte count <1200/mm(3) were randomized to initiate ABC/3TC/ZDV either 2 (early) or 8 (delayed) weeks after commencing antituberculosis therapy and were followed for 104 weeks. Of 94 patients screened, 70 enrolled (41% female, median CD4 count 103 cells/mm(3)), and 33 in each group completed 104 weeks. Two deaths and 12 serious adverse events (SAEs) were observed in the early arm vs. one death, one clinical failure, and seven SAEs in the delayed arm (p = 0.6012 for time to first grade 3/4 event, SAE, or death). CD4 cell increases were +331 and +328 cells/mm(3), respectively. TB-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndromes (TB-IRIS) were not observed in any subject. Using intent-to-treat (ITT), missing = failure analyses, 74% (26/35) vs. 89% (31/35) randomized to early vs. delayed therapy had HIV RNA levels <400 copies/ml at 104 weeks (p = 0.2182) and 66% (23/35) vs. 74% (26/35), respectively, had HIV RNA levels <50 copies/ml (p = 0.6026). In an analysis in which switches from ABC/3TC/ZDV = failure, those receiving early therapy were less likely to be suppressed to <400 copies/ml [60% (21/35) vs. 86% (30/35), p = 0.030]. TB-IRIS was not observed among the 70 coinfected subjects beginning antiretroviral treatment. ABC/3TC/ZDV was well tolerated and resulted in steady immunologic improvement. Rates of virologic suppression were similar between early and delayed treatment strategies with triple nucleoside regimens when substitutions were allowed.

Fixed-dose combination therapy for type 2 diabetes: sitagliptin plus pioglitazone

Importance of the field: Type 2 diabetes is typically associated with insulin resistance and dysfunction of insulin-secreting pancreatic beta-cells. Addressing these defects often requires therapy with a combination of differently acting antidiabetic agents. A potential novel combination in development brings together the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor sitagliptin with the thiazolidinedione pioglitazone into a fixed-dose single-tablet combination. The former component acts mainly to increase prandial insulin secretion; the latter improves insulin sensitivity.

Tiotropium and olodaterol fixed-dose combination versus mono-components in COPD (GOLD 2-4)

Efficacy and safety of tiotropium+olodaterol fixed-dose combination (FDC) compared with the mono-components was evaluated in patients with moderate to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in two replicate, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, multicentre, phase III trials. Patients received tiotropium+olodaterol FDC 2.5/5 μg or 5/5 μg, tiotropium 2.5 μg or 5 μg, or olodaterol 5 μg delivered once-daily via Respimat inhaler over 52 weeks. Primary end points were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) area under the curve from 0 to 3 h (AUC0-3) response, trough FEV1 response and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score at 24 weeks. In total, 5162 patients (2624 in Study 1237.5 and 2538 in Study 1237.6) received treatment. Both FDCs significantly improved FEV1 AUC0-3 and trough FEV1 response versus the mono-components in both studies. Statistically significant improvements in SGRQ total score versus the mono-components were only seen for tiotropium+olodaterol FDC 5/5 μg. Incidence of adverse events was comparable between the FDCs and the mono-components. These studies demonstrated significant improvements in lung function and health-related quality of life with once-daily tiotropium+olodaterol FDC versus mono-components over 1 year in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.

Design of a Dissolving Microneedle Platform for Transdermal Delivery of a Fixed-Dose Combination of Cardiovascular Drugs

Microneedles (MNs) are a minimally invasive drug delivery platform, designed to enhance transdermal drug delivery by breaching the stratum corneum. For the first time, this study describes the simultaneous delivery of a combination of three drugs using a dissolving polymeric MN system. In the present study, aspirin, lisinopril dihydrate, and atorvastatin calcium trihydrate were used as exemplar cardiovascular drugs and formulated into MN arrays using two biocompatible polymers, poly(vinylpyrrollidone) and poly(methylvinylether/maleic acid). Following fabrication, dissolution, mechanical testing, and determination of drug recovery from the MN arrays, in vitro drug delivery studies were undertaken, followed by HPLC analysis. All three drugs were successfully delivered in vitro across neonatal porcine skin, with similar permeation profiles achieved from both polymer formulations. An average of 126.3 ± 18.1 μg of atorvastatin calcium trihydrate was delivered, notably lower than the 687.9 ± 101.3 μg of lisinopril and 3924 ± 1011 μg of aspirin, because of the hydrophobic nature of the atorvastatin molecule and hence poor dissolution from the array. Polymer deposition into the skin may be an issue with repeat application of such a MN array, hence future work will consider more appropriate MN systems for continuous use, alongside tailoring delivery to less hydrophilic compounds.

Achieving optimal dose intensity with adjuvant chemotherapy in elderly breast cancer patients:A 10-year retrospective study in a UK institution

The study was to determine if breast cancer patients aged 65 and above could be given adjuvant chemotherapy safely while achieving an acceptable relative dose intensity of at least 85%. We identified all patients aged 65 and over who received adjuvant chemotherapy over the 10 year period, November 1999 to October 2009, and determined the proportion that achieved a relative dose intensity of at least 85% as well as the tolerability of their treatment. A total of 101 patients were identified, with a median age of 69 years (range 65-78).Of these, 25.7% of patients had at least one major comorbidity, 84.2% had a tumor size of 5 cm or less, 73.3% were node positive and 58.4% were hormone receptor positive. The chemotherapy regimens used were AC (Doxorubicin and Cyclophosphamide), FEC (Fluorouracil, Epirubicin, and Cyclophosphamide), CMF (Cyclophosphamide, Methotrexate, and Fluorouracil) and ECMF (Epirubicin followed by CMF). Seventy-nine patients (78.2%) achieved the relative dose intensity of at least 85%. With respect to toxicity, 11.9% of patients developed febrile neutropenia and 23.8% of patients required hospital admission during the treatment period, but there were no treatment-related deaths in the group. A significant proportion of patients aged 65 and above achieved the intended dose intensity of at least 85% over this 10-year period, with manageable toxicity levels. This supports the use of these regimens as adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer in this age group. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimal dose of Kanamycin for protection from noise induced hearing loss

Young CBA/J mice were injected with kanamycin under varying schedules then exposed to noise in order to determine the boundary conditions for cochlear protection against noise.

Toward the optimal dose metric in continuous renal replacement therapy

Purpose: There is no consensus on the optimal method to measure delivered dialysis dose in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). The use of direct dialysate-side quantification of dose in preference to the use of formal blood-based urea kinetic modeling and simplified blood urea nitrogen (BUN) methods has been recommended for dose assessment in critically-ill patients with AKI. We evaluate six different blood-side and dialysate-side methods for dose quantification. Methods: We examined data from 52 critically-ill patients with AKI requiring dialysis. All patients were treated with pre-dilution CWHDF and regional citrate anticoagulation. Delivered dose was calculated using blood-side and dialysis-side kinetics. Filter function was assessed during the entire course of therapy by calculating BUN to dialysis fluid urea nitrogen (FUN) ratios q/12 hours. Results: Median daily treatment time was 1,413 min (1,260-1,440). The median observed effluent volume per treatment was 2,355 mL/h (2,060-2,863) (p<0.001). Urea mass removal rate was 13.0 +/- 7.6 mg/min. Both EKR (r(2)=0.250; p<0.001) and K-D (r(2)=0.409; p<0.001) showed a good correlation with actual solute removal. EKR and K-D presented a decline in their values that was related to the decrease in filter function assessed by the FUN/BUN ratio. Conclusions: Effluent rate (ml/kg/h) can only empirically provide an estimated of dose in CRRT. For clinical practice, we recommend that the delivered dose should be measured and expressed as K-D. EKR also constitutes a good method for dose comparisons over time and across modalities.

Effect of artesunate-mefloquine fixed-dose combination in malaria transmission in amazon basin communities

Background: Studies in South-East Asia have suggested that early diagnosis and treatment with artesunate (AS) and mefloquine (MQ) combination therapy may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and the progression of MQ resistance. Methods: The effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination of AS and MQ (ASMQ) in reducing malaria transmission was tested in isolated communities of the Jurua valley in the Amazon region. Priority municipalities within the Brazilian Legal Amazon area were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Routine national malaria control programmatic procedures were followed. Existing health structures were reinforced and health care workers were trained to treat with ASMQ all confirmed falciparum malaria cases that match inclusion criteria. A local pharmacovigilance structure was implemented. Incidence of malaria and hospitalizations were recorded two years before, during, and after the fixed-dose ASMQ intervention. In total, between July 2006 and December 2008, 23,845 patients received ASMQ. Two statistical modelling approaches were applied to monthly time series of P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, P. falciparum/Plasmodium vivax infection ratio, and malaria hospital admissions rates. All the time series ranged from January 2004 to December 2008, whilst the intervention period span from July 2006 to December 2008. Results: The ASMQ intervention had a highly significant impact on the mean level of each time series, adjusted for trend and season, of 0.34 (95% CI 0.20 - 0.58) for the P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, 0.67 (95% CI 0.50 - 0.89) for the P. falciparum/P. vivax infection ratio, and 0.53 (95% CI 0.41 - 0.69) for the hospital admission rates. There was also a significant change in the seasonal (or monthly) pattern of the time series before and after intervention, with the elimination of the malaria seasonal peak in the rainy months of the years following the introduction of ASMQ. No serious adverse events relating to the use of fixed-dose ASMQ were reported. Conclusions: In the remote region of the Jurua valley, the early detection of malaria by health care workers and treatment with fixed-dose ASMQ was feasible and efficacious, and significantly reduced the incidence and morbidity of P. falciparum malaria.

Fixed-dose combination therapy for type 2 diabetes:sitagliptin plus pioglitazone

Type 2 diabetes is typically associated with insulin resistance and dysfunction of insulin-secreting pancreatic beta-cells. Addressing these defects often requires therapy with a combination of differently acting antidiabetic agents. A potential novel combination in development brings together the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor sitagliptin with the thiazolidinedione pioglitazone into a fixed-dose single-tablet combination. The former component acts mainly to increase prandial insulin secretion; the latter improves insulin sensitivity.

Evidence based drug therapy : are optimal doses and multiple medication therapies realistic in patients with chronic heart failure

Background: Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) has a high mortality and morbidity. Large scale randomised controlled trials have proven the benefits of beta blockade and ACE inhibitors in reducing mortality in patients with CHF and expert guidelines mandate their use. In spite of these recommendations, important therapies are under-prescribed and under-utilised.

Method: 1015 consecutive patients enrolled in CHF management programs across Australia were surveyed during 2005-2006 to determine prescribing patterns in heart failure medications. These patients were followed-up for a period of 6 months.

Results: The survey revealed that beta blockers were prescribed to 80% of patients (more than 85% were on sub-optimal doses) and 70% were prescribed Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (approximately 50% were on sub-optimal dose). 19% of patients were prescribed Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs). By 6 months <25% of the patients who were on sub-optimal dose beta blockers or ACE inhibitors at baseline, had been up-titrated to maximum dose (p<0.0001). In CHF programs, were nurses were able to titrate medications, 75% of patients reached optimal dose of beta blockers compared to those programs with no nurse-led medication titration, where only 25% of patients reached optimal dose (p<0.004). When examining optimal dosage for any two of these mandatory medications, less patients were on optimal therapy. Beta blockers and ACE inhibitors, were both prescribed in combination in 60% of patients. While beta blockers and ARBs were prescribed to 15% of patients.

Conclusion: Whilst prescribing rates for a single medication strategy of beta blockers, or ACE inhibitors were greater than 70%, an increase in dosage of these medications and utilisation of proven combination therapy of these medications was poor. It is suggested that clinical outcomes for this cohort of patients could be further improved by adherence to evidence-based practice, ESC guidelines, and optimisation of these medications by heart failure nurses in a CHF program. On the basis of these findings and in the absence of ready access to a polypill, focussing on evidence-based practice to increase utilisation and optimal dosage of combination medication therapy is critical.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as a biomarker for the pharmacological response of PTK787/ZK 222584, an inhibitor of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and liver metastases: Results from two phase I studies

Purpose: PTK787/ZK 222584 (PTK/ZK), an orally active inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor tyrosine kinases, inhibits VEGF-mediated angiogenesis. The pharmacodynamic effects of PTK/ZK were evaluated by assessing changes in contrast-enhancement parameters of metastatic liver lesions using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated in two ongoing, dose-escalating phase I studies. Patients and Methods: Twenty-six patients had DCE-MRI performed at baseline, day 2, and at the end of each 28-day cycle. Doses of oral PTK/ZK ranged from 50 to 2000 mg once daily. Tumor permeability and vascularity were assessed by calculating the bidirectional transfer constant (Ki). The percentage of baseline Ki (% of baseline Ki) at each time point was compared with pharmacokinetic and clinical end points. Results: A significant negative correlation exists between the % of baseline Ki and increase in PTK/ZK oral dose and plasma levels (P = .01 for oral dose; P = .0001 for area under the plasma concentration curve at day 2). Patients with a best response of stable disease had a significantly greater reduction in Ki at both day 2 and at the end of cycle 1 compared with progressors (mean difference in % of baseline Ki, 47%, P = .004%; and 51%, P = .006; respectively). The difference in % of baseline Ki remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline WHO performance status. Conclusion: These findings should help to define a biologically active dose of PTK/ZK. These results suggest that DCE-MRI may be a useful biomarker for defining the pharmacological response and dose of angiogenesis inhibitiors, such as PTK/ZK, for further clinical development. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.