Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Optimal dose levels in screening chest CT for unimpaired detection and volumetry of lung nodules, with and without computer assisted detection at minimal patient radiation

OBJECTIVES The aim of this phantom study was to minimize the radiation dose by finding the best combination of low tube current and low voltage that would result in accurate volume measurements when compared to standard CT imaging without significantly decreasing the sensitivity of detecting lung nodules both with and without the assistance of CAD. METHODS An anthropomorphic chest phantom containing artificial solid and ground glass nodules (GGNs, 5-12 mm) was examined with a 64-row multi-detector CT scanner with three tube currents of 100, 50 and 25 mAs in combination with three tube voltages of 120, 100 and 80 kVp. This resulted in eight different protocols that were then compared to standard CT sensitivity (100 mAs/120 kVp). For each protocol, at least 127 different nodules were scanned in 21-25 phantoms. The nodules were analyzed in two separate sessions by three independent, blinded radiologists and computer-aided detection (CAD) software. RESULTS The mean sensitivity of the radiologists for identifying solid lung nodules on a standard CT was 89.7% ± 4.9%. The sensitivity was not significantly impaired when the tube and current voltage were lowered at the same time, except at the lowest exposure level of 25 mAs/80 kVp [80.6% ± 4.3% (p = 0.031)]. Compared to the standard CT, the sensitivity for detecting GGNs was significantly lower at all dose levels when the voltage was 80 kVp; this result was independent of the tube current. The CAD significantly increased the radiologists' sensitivity for detecting solid nodules at all dose levels (5-11%). No significant volume measurement errors (VMEs) were documented for the radiologists or the CAD software at any dose level. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest a CT protocol with 25 mAs and 100 kVp is optimal for detecting solid and ground glass nodules in lung cancer screening. The use of CAD software is highly recommended at all dose levels.

BUPROPION/NALTREXONE FIXED-DOSE COMBINATION FOR THE TREATMENT OF OBESITY

The combination of bupropion and naltrexone is one of the most promising new possibilities for the treatment of obesity in an era of increasing prevalence of this disease and decreasing options for its pharmacological management. Although approved by FDA panel members, it was temporally rejected by the FDA afterwards, who demanded more cardiovascular safety data for its commercialization. This monograph will focus on the physiology involved in its mechanisms of action and results of clinical trials.

The ADVANCE trial: clarifying the role of perindopril/indapamide fixed-dose combination in the reduction of cardiovascular and renal events in patients with diabetes mellitus.

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus exhibit a marked increase in cardiovascular and renal risk. A number of interventional trials have shown that these patients benefit greatly from aggressive BP lowering, especially when the drug regimen comprises an inhibitor of the renin-angiotensin system. The results of the placebo-controlled ADVANCE (Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: PreterAx and DiamicroN MR Controlled Evaluation) trial, conducted in patients with type 2 diabetes, are exemplary in this respect. The systematic use of a fixed-dose combination containing the ACE inhibitor perindopril and the diuretic indapamide afforded substantial protection against cardiovascular mortality and myocardial infarction, while providing important renoprotection, reducing the development of micro- and macroalbuminuria, and allowing regression of nephropathy. The beneficial effects were obtained regardless of baseline BP and whether or not the patients were receiving antihypertensive therapy.

Amlodipine and valsartan as components of a rational and effective fixed-dose combination.

Pharmacological treatment of hypertension is effective in preventing cardiovascular and renal complications. Calcium antagonists and blockers of the renin-angiotensin system are widely used today to initiate antihypertensive therapy but, when given as monotherapy, do not suffice in most patients to normalize blood pressure. Combining the two types of agents considerably increases the antihypertensive efficacy, but not at the expense of a deterioration of tolerability. This is exemplified by the experience accumulated with the recently developed fixed dose combination containing the AT(1)-receptor blocker valsartan (160 mg) and the dihydropyridine amlodipine (5 or 10 mg). In a randomized trial, an 8-week treatment normalized blood pressure (<140/90 mmHg) within 8 weeks in a large fraction of hypertensive patients (78.4% and 85.2% using the 5/160 [n = 371] and 10/160 mg [n = 377] dosage, respectively). Like all AT(1)-receptor blockers valsartan has a placebo-like tolerability. Valsartan prevents to a large extent the occurrence amlodipine-induced peripheral edema. Both amlodipine and valsartan have beneficial effects on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, as well as protective effects on renal function. The co-administration of these two agents is therefore very attractive, as it enables a rapid and sustained blood pressure control in hypertensive patients. The availability of a fixed-dose combination based on amlodipine and valsartan is expected therefore to facilitate the management of hypertension, to improve long-term adherence with antihypertensive therapy and, ultimately, to have a positive impact on cardiovascular and renal outcomes.

Optimal Recycling Combination of Ash in South-East Finland

The present world energy production is heavily relying on the combustion of solid fuels like coals, peat, biomass, municipal solid waste, whereas the share of renewable fuels is anticipated to increase in the future to mitigate climate change. In Finland, peat and wood are widely used for energy production. In any case, the combustion of solid fuels results in generation of several types of thermal conversion residues, such as bottom ash, fly ash, and boiler slag. The predominant residue type is determined by the incineration technology applied, while its composition is primarily relevant to the composition of fuels combusted. An extensive research has been conducted on technical suitability of ash for multiple recycling methods. Most of attention was drawn to the recycling of the coal combustion residues, as coal is the primary solid fuel consumed globally. The recycling methods of coal residues include utilization in a cement industry, in concrete manufacturing, and mine backfilling, to name few. Biomass combustion residues were also studied to some extent with forest fertilization, road construction, and road stabilization being the predominant utilization options. Lastly, residues form municipal solid waste incineration attracted more attention recently following the growing number of waste incineration plants globally. The recycling methods of waste incineration residues are the most limited due to its hazardous nature and varying composition, and include, among others, landfill construction, road construction, mine backfilling. In the study, environmental and economic aspects of multiple recycling options of thermal conversion residues generated within a case-study area were studied. The case-study area was South-East Finland. The environmental analysis was performed using an internationally recognized methodology — life cycle assessment. Economic assessment was conducted applying a widely used methodology — cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the results of the analyses were combined to enable easier comparison of the recycling methods. The recycling methods included the use of ash in forest fertilization, road construction, road stabilization, and landfill construction. Ash landfilling was set as a baseline scenario. Quantitative data about the amounts of ash generated and its composition was obtained from companies, their environmental reports, technical reports and other previously published literature. Overall, the amount of ash in the case-study area was 101 700 t. However, the data about 58 400 t of fly ash and 35 100 t of bottom ash and boiler slag were included in the study due to lack of data about leaching of heavy metals in some cases. The recycling methods were modelled according to the scientific studies published previously. Overall, the results of the study indicated that ash utilization for fertilization and neutralization of 17 600 ha of forest was the most economically beneficial method, which resulted in the net present value increase by 58% compared to ash landfilling. Regarding the environmental impact, the use of ash in the construction of 11 km of roads was the most attractive method with decreased environmental impact of 13% compared to ash landfilling. The least preferred method was the use of ash for landfill construction since it only enabled 11% increase of net present value, while inducing additional 1% of negative impact on the environment. Therefore, a following recycling route was proposed in the study. Where possible and legally acceptable, recycle fly and bottom ash for forest fertilization, which has strictest requirements out of all studied methods. If the quality of fly ash is not suitable for forest fertilization, then it should be utilized, first, in paved road construction, second, in road stabilization. Bottom ash not suitable for forest fertilization, as well as boiler slag, should be used in landfill construction. Landfilling should only be practiced when recycling by either of the methods is not possible due to legal requirements or there is not enough demand on the market. Current demand on ash and possible changes in the future were assessed in the study. Currently, the area of forest fertilized in the case-study are is only 451 ha, whereas about 17 600 ha of forest could be fertilized with ash generated in the region. Provided that the average forest fertilizing values in Finland are higher and the area treated with fellings is about 40 000 ha, the amount of ash utilized in forest fertilization could be increased. Regarding road construction, no new projects launched by the Center of Economic Development, Transport and the Environment in the case-study area were identified. A potential application can be found in the construction of private roads. However, no centralized data about such projects is available. The use of ash in stabilization of forest roads is not expected to increased in the future with a current downwards trend in the length of forest roads built. Finally, the use of ash in landfill construction is not a promising option due to the reducing number of landfills in operation in Finland.

Optimal dose of Kanamycin for protection from noise induced hearing loss

Young CBA/J mice were injected with kanamycin under varying schedules then exposed to noise in order to determine the boundary conditions for cochlear protection against noise.

Toward the optimal dose metric in continuous renal replacement therapy

Purpose: There is no consensus on the optimal method to measure delivered dialysis dose in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). The use of direct dialysate-side quantification of dose in preference to the use of formal blood-based urea kinetic modeling and simplified blood urea nitrogen (BUN) methods has been recommended for dose assessment in critically-ill patients with AKI. We evaluate six different blood-side and dialysate-side methods for dose quantification. Methods: We examined data from 52 critically-ill patients with AKI requiring dialysis. All patients were treated with pre-dilution CWHDF and regional citrate anticoagulation. Delivered dose was calculated using blood-side and dialysis-side kinetics. Filter function was assessed during the entire course of therapy by calculating BUN to dialysis fluid urea nitrogen (FUN) ratios q/12 hours. Results: Median daily treatment time was 1,413 min (1,260-1,440). The median observed effluent volume per treatment was 2,355 mL/h (2,060-2,863) (p<0.001). Urea mass removal rate was 13.0 +/- 7.6 mg/min. Both EKR (r(2)=0.250; p<0.001) and K-D (r(2)=0.409; p<0.001) showed a good correlation with actual solute removal. EKR and K-D presented a decline in their values that was related to the decrease in filter function assessed by the FUN/BUN ratio. Conclusions: Effluent rate (ml/kg/h) can only empirically provide an estimated of dose in CRRT. For clinical practice, we recommend that the delivered dose should be measured and expressed as K-D. EKR also constitutes a good method for dose comparisons over time and across modalities.

Effect of artesunate-mefloquine fixed-dose combination in malaria transmission in amazon basin communities

Background: Studies in South-East Asia have suggested that early diagnosis and treatment with artesunate (AS) and mefloquine (MQ) combination therapy may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and the progression of MQ resistance. Methods: The effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination of AS and MQ (ASMQ) in reducing malaria transmission was tested in isolated communities of the Jurua valley in the Amazon region. Priority municipalities within the Brazilian Legal Amazon area were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Routine national malaria control programmatic procedures were followed. Existing health structures were reinforced and health care workers were trained to treat with ASMQ all confirmed falciparum malaria cases that match inclusion criteria. A local pharmacovigilance structure was implemented. Incidence of malaria and hospitalizations were recorded two years before, during, and after the fixed-dose ASMQ intervention. In total, between July 2006 and December 2008, 23,845 patients received ASMQ. Two statistical modelling approaches were applied to monthly time series of P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, P. falciparum/Plasmodium vivax infection ratio, and malaria hospital admissions rates. All the time series ranged from January 2004 to December 2008, whilst the intervention period span from July 2006 to December 2008. Results: The ASMQ intervention had a highly significant impact on the mean level of each time series, adjusted for trend and season, of 0.34 (95% CI 0.20 - 0.58) for the P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, 0.67 (95% CI 0.50 - 0.89) for the P. falciparum/P. vivax infection ratio, and 0.53 (95% CI 0.41 - 0.69) for the hospital admission rates. There was also a significant change in the seasonal (or monthly) pattern of the time series before and after intervention, with the elimination of the malaria seasonal peak in the rainy months of the years following the introduction of ASMQ. No serious adverse events relating to the use of fixed-dose ASMQ were reported. Conclusions: In the remote region of the Jurua valley, the early detection of malaria by health care workers and treatment with fixed-dose ASMQ was feasible and efficacious, and significantly reduced the incidence and morbidity of P. falciparum malaria.

Fixed-dose combination therapy for type 2 diabetes:sitagliptin plus pioglitazone

Type 2 diabetes is typically associated with insulin resistance and dysfunction of insulin-secreting pancreatic beta-cells. Addressing these defects often requires therapy with a combination of differently acting antidiabetic agents. A potential novel combination in development brings together the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor sitagliptin with the thiazolidinedione pioglitazone into a fixed-dose single-tablet combination. The former component acts mainly to increase prandial insulin secretion; the latter improves insulin sensitivity.

An 18-Week, Prospective, Randomized, Double-Blind, Multicenter Study of Amlodipine/Ramipril Combination Versus Amlodipine Monotherapy in the Treatment of Hypertension: The Assessment of Combination Therapy of Amlodipine/Ramipril (ATAR) Study

Background: A combination of antihypertensive agents of different drug classes in a fixed-dose combination (FDC) may offer advantages in terms of efficacy, tolerability, and treatment compliance. Combination of a calcium channel blocker with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor may act synergistically to reduce blood pressure (BP). Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy and tolerability of an amlodipine/ramipril FDC with those of amlodipine monotherapy. Methods: This 18-week, prospective, randomized, double-blind study was conducted at 8 centers across Brazil. Patients with stage 1 or 2 essential hypertension were enrolled. After a 2-week placebo run-in phase, patients received amlodipine/ramipril 2.5/2.5 mg or amlodipine 2.5 mg, after which the doses were titrated, based on BP, to 515 then 10/10 mg (amlodipme/ramipril) and 5 then 10 mg (amiodipine). The primary end point was BP measured in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Hematology and serum biochemistry were assessed at baseline and study end. Tolerability was assessed using patient interview, laboratory analysis, and physical examination, including measurement of ankle circumference to assess peripheral edema. Results: A total of 222 patients completed the study (age range, 40-79 years; FDC group, 117 patients [mean dose, 7.60/7.60 mg]; monotherapy, 105 patients [mean dose, 7.97 mg]). The mean (SD) changes in systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP), as measured using 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) and in the physician`s office, were significantly greater with combination therapy than monotherapy, with the exception of office DBP (ABPM, -20.76 [1.25] vs -15.80 [1.18] mm Hg and -11.71 [0.78] vs -8.61 [0.74] mm Hg, respectively [both, P = 0.004]; office, -27.51 [1.40] vs -22.84 [1.33] min Hg [P = 0.012] and -16.41 [0.79] vs -14.64 [0.75] mm Hg [P = NS], respectively). In the ITT analysis, the mean changes in ambulatory, but not office-based, BP were statistically significant (ABPM: SBP, -20.21 [1.14] vs -15.31 [1.12] mm Hg and DBP, -11.61 [0.72] vs -8.42 [0.70] mm Hg, respectively [both, P = 0.002]; office: SBP, -26.60 [1.34] vs -22.97 [1.30] mm Hg and DBP, -16.48 [0.78] vs -14.48 [0.75] mm Hg [both, P = NS]). Twenty-nine patients (22.1%) treated with combination therapy and 41 patients (30.6%) treated with monotherapy experienced >= 1 adverse event considered possibly related to study drug. The combmation-therapy group had lower prevalence of edema (7.6% vs 18.7%; P = 0.011) and a similar prevalence of dry cough (3.8% vs 0.8%; P = NS). No clinically significant changes in laboratory values were found in either group. Conclusions: In this population of patients with essential hypertension, the amlodipine/ramipril FDC was associated with significantly reduced ambulatory and office-measured BP compared with amlodipine monotherapy, with the exception of office DBP. Both treatments were well tolerated. (Clin Ther. 2008;30: 1618-1628) (C) 2008 Excerpta Medica Inc.

Felodipine-metoprolol combination tablet: a valuable option to initiate antihypertensive therapy?

The aim of the present study was to assess the efficacy and tolerability of a calcium antagonist/beta-blocker fixed combination tablet used as first-line antihypertesnive therapy in comparison with an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor and placebo. Patients with uncomplicated essential hypertension (diastolic blood pressure between 95 and 110 mm Hg at the end of a 4-week run-in period) were randomly allocated to a double-blind, 12-week treatment with either a combination tablet of felodipine and metoprolol (Logimax), 5/50 mg daily (n = 321), enalapril, 10 mg daily (n = 321), or placebo (n = 304), with the possibility of doubling the dose after 4 or 8 weeks of treatment if needed (diastolic blood pressure remaining >90 mm Hg). The combined felodipine-metoprolol treatment controlled blood pressure (diastolic < or =90 mm Hg 24 h after dose) in 72% of patients after 12 weeks, as compared with 49% for enalapril and 30% for placebo. A dose adjustment was required in 38% of patients receiving the combination, in 63% of patients allocated to placebo, and 61% of enalapril-treated patients. The overall incidence of adverse events was 54.5% during felodipine-metoprolol treatment; the corresponding values for enalapril and placebo were 51.7% and 47.4%, respectively. Withdrawal of treatment due to adverse events occurred in 18 patients treated with the combination, in 10 patients on enalapril, and 12 patients on placebo. No significant change in patients' well-being was observed in either of the three study groups. These results show that a fixed combination tablet of felodipine and metoprolol allows to normalize blood pressure in a substantially larger fraction of patients than enalapril given alone. This improved efficacy is obtained without impairing the tolerability. The fixed-dose combination of felodipine and metoprolol, therefore, may become a valuable option to initiate antihypertensive treatment.

The need for combination antihypertensive therapy to reach target blood pressures: what has been learned from clinical practice and morbidity-mortality trials?

Pharmacological treatment of hypertension represents a cost-effective way for preventing cardiovascular and renal complications. To benefit maximally from antihypertensive treatment blood pressure (BP) should be brought to below 140/90 mmHg in every hypertensive patient, and even lower (&lt; 130/80 mmHg) if diabetes or renal disease co-exists. Most of the time such targets cannot be reached using monotherapies. This is especially true in patients who exhibit a high cardiovascular risk. The co-administration of two agents acting by different mechanisms considerably increases BP control. Such preparations are not only efficacious, but also well tolerated, and some fixed low-dose combinations have a tolerability profile similar to placebo. This is for instance the case for the preparation containing the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor perindopril (2 mg) and the diuretic indapamide (0.625 mg), a fixed low-dose combination that has recently been shown in controlled interventional trials to be more effective than monotherapies in reducing albuminuria, regressing cardiac hypertrophy and improving macrovascular stiffness. Fixed-dose combinations are becoming more and more popular and are even proposed by current hypertension guidelines as a first-line option to treat hypertensive patients.