Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Falling sheet envelope method for non-destructive testing time-dependent signals

In this work, an algorithm to compute the envelope of non-destructive testing (NDT) signals is proposed. This method allows increasing the speed and reducing the memory in extensive data processing. Also, this procedure presents advantage of preserving the data information for physical modeling applications of time-dependent measurements. The algorithm is conceived to be applied for analyze data from non-destructive testing. The comparison between different envelope methods and the proposed method, applied to Magnetic Bark Signal (MBN), is studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Isolation and characterization of a Clostridium sp with cinnamoyl esterase activity and unusual cell envelope ultrastructure

Microorganisms that hydrolyse the ester linkages between phenolic acids and polysaccharides in plant cell walls are potential sources of enzymes for the degradation of lignocellulosic waste. An anaerobic, mesophilic, spore-forming, xylanolytic bacterium with high hydroxy cinnamic acid esterase activity was isolated from the gut of the grass-eating termite Tumilitermes pastinator. The bacterium was motile and rod-shaped, stained gram-positive, had an eight-layered cell envelope, and.formed endospores. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA indicated that the bacterium is closely related to Clostridium xylanolyticum and is grouped with polysaccharolytic strains of clostridia. A wide range of carbohydrates were fermented, and growth was stimulated by either xylan or cellobiose as substrates. The bacterium hydrolysed and then hydrogenated the hydroxy cinnamic acids (ferulic and p-coumaric acids), which are esterified to arabinoxylan in plant cell walls. Three cytoplasmic enzymes with hydroxy cinnamic acid esterase activity were identified using non-denaturing gel electrophoresis. This bacterium possesses an unusual multilayered cell envelope in which both leaflets of the cytoplasmic membrane, the peptidoglycan layer and the S layer are clearly discernible. The fate of all these components was easily followed throughout the endospore formation process. The peptidoglycan component persisted during the entire morphogenesis. It was seen to enter the septum and to pass with the engulfing membranes to surround the prespore. It eventually expanded to form the cortex, verification for the peptidoglycan origin of the cortex. Sporogenic vesicles, which are derived from the cell wall peptidoglycan, were associated with the engulfment process. Spore coat fragments appeared early, in stage II, though spore coat formation was not complete until after cortex formation.

On the theory of mixing-frequency electron spin-echo envelope modulation spectroscopy

It has recently been stated that the parametrization of the time variables in the one-dimensional (I-D) mixing-frequency electron spin-echo envelope modulation (MIF-ESEEM) experiment is incorrect and hence the wrong frequencies for correlated nuclear transitions are predicted. This paper is a direct response to such a claim, its purpose being to show that the parametrization in land 2-D MIF-ESEEM experiments possesses the same form as that used in other 4-pulse incrementation schemes and predicts the same correlation frequencies. We show that the parametrization represents a shearing transformation of the 2-D time-domain and relate the resulting frequency domain spectrum to the HYSCORE spectrum in terms of a skew-projection. It is emphasized that the parametrization of the time-domain variables may be chosen arbitrarily and affects neither the computation of the correct nuclear frequencies nor the resulting resolution. The usefulness or otherwise of the MIF parameters \gamma\ > 1 is addressed, together with the validity of the original claims of the authors with respect to resolution enhancement in cases of purely homogeneous and inhomogeneous broadening. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the main points.

Neither Molecular Diversity of the Envelope, Immunosuppression Status, Nor Proviral Load Causes Indeterminate HTLV Western Blot Profiles in Samples From Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type 2 (HTLV-2)-Infected Individuals

Although human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 2 (HTLV-2) is considered of low pathogenicity, serological diagnosis is important for counseling and monitoring. The confirmatory tests most used are Western blot (WB) and PCR. However, in high-risk populations, about 50% of the indeterminate WB were HTLV-2 positives by PCR. The insensitivity of the WB might be due to the use of recombinant proteins of strains that do not circulate in our country. Another possibility may be a high level of immunosuppression, which could lead to low production of virus, resulting in low stimulation of antibody. We found one mutation, proline to serine in the envelope region in the position 184, presented at least 1/3 of the samples, independent the indeterminate WB profile. In conclusion, we found no correlation of immune state, HTLV-2 proviral load, or env diversity in the K55 region and WB indeterminate results. We believe that the only WB kit available in the market is probably more accurate to detect HTLV-1 antibodies, and some improvement for HTLV-2 detection should be done in the future, especially among high-risk population. J. Med. Virol. 82:837-842,2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Increasing the response rate to a mailed questionnaire by including more stamps on the return envelope: A cotwin control study

Twins taking part in two unrelated studies were sent a questionnaire together with a self-addressed envelope that either carried one or multiple (up to 5) stamps to the same value. The unprompted proportion of questionnaires returned (before commencement of telephone reminder calls) was increased from 62% to 71% in one study, and from 43% to 52% in the other study (test for common odds ratio in studies, p = 0.04).

Molecular analysis of the dengue virus type 1 and 2 in Brazil based on sequences of the genomic envelope-nonstructural protein 1 junction region

The genomic sequences of the Envelope-Non-Structural protein 1 junction region (E/NS1) of 84 DEN-1 and 22 DEN-2 isolates from Brazil were determined. Most of these strains were isolated in the period from 1995 to 2001 in endemic and regions of recent dengue transmission in São Paulo State. Sequence data for DEN-1 and DEN-2 utilized in phylogenetic and split decomposition analyses also include sequences deposited in GenBank from different regions of Brazil and of the world. Phylogenetic analyses were done using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Results for both DEN-1 and DEN-2 data are ambiguous, and support for most tree bipartitions are generally poor, suggesting that E/NS1 region does not contain enough information for recovering phylogenetic relationships among DEN-1 and DEN-2 sequences used in this study. The network graph generated in the split decomposition analysis of DEN-1 does not show evidence of grouping sequences according to country, region and clades. While the network for DEN-2 also shows ambiguities among DEN-2 sequences, it suggests that Brazilian sequences may belong to distinct subtypes of genotype III.

Estudo para a optimização dos sistemas de climatização com vista à obtenção de um edifício com baixas necessidades energéticas em climatização

A presente tese tem como principal objectivo abordar o tema da eficiência energética em edifícios, no que se refere aos sistemas de climatização. O desenvolvimento deste projecto realizou-se em torno dos consumos energéticos dos diferentes sistemas de climatização estudados (e por conseguinte da envolvente do edifício), focando o cumprimento dos requisitos térmico e energéticos das normas vigentes (RCCTE e RSECE) em Portugal, tendo como objectivo identificar os parâmetros com maior impacto e a relação tendencial entre as soluções construtivas e tecnológicas adoptadas, sempre com o horizonte de maximizar a eficiência energética e diminuir a dependência face à energia primária e consequentemente a emissão de gases que provocam o efeito de estufa. É âmbito desta tese comparar diferentes tipos de sistemas de climatização a nível energético e torná-los os mais eficientes possíveis, para que também se possam tornar monetariamente aliciantes e aumentar o rácio entre benefício/custo. Para tal, numa primeira fase foi feito um estudo térmico da envolvente do edifício, tendo sido utilizado um software de simulação energética de edifícios acreditado pela norma ASHRAE 140-2004 para se poder compreender como o edifício se comportava ao longo do ano, e introduzir algumas correcções na respectiva envolvente, para baixar as potências térmicas/eléctricas dos equipamentos do sistema de AVAC. De seguida foram estudados três sistemas possíveis de climatização para o edifício, de modo a identificar o mais eficiente numa base anual, bem como a possibilidade de combinar o uso de fontes de energia renováveis com o intuito de satisfazer ao máximo as necessidades térmicas do edifício e, ainda, de minimizar o consumo de energia de origem não renovável. Por fim, para avaliar as diferentes potencialidades de cada sistema de climatização estudado, fez-se o respectivo estudo à sua viabilidade económica. Nas considerações finais da presente tese é realizado um estudo aos benefícios que uma possível alteração da arquitectura do edifício pode trazer no aumento da iluminação natural do mesmo integrado com um controlo da iluminação artificial necessária para os diferentes espaços climatizados. Os resultados obtidos foram comparados entre si e corrigir a envolvente exterior reduz os consumos energéticos do edifício em cerca de 11%. As medidas correctivas propostas no sistema de climatização base originam uma redução energética igual a 43%. A nível ambiental, é possível a redução do número de emissões de CO2 em cerca de 72.1%.