Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Patterned-ground plant communities along a bioclimate gradient in the High Arctic, Canada

Non-sorted circles, non-sorted polygons, and earth hummocks are common ground-surface features ill arctic regions. The), are caused by a variety of physical processes that Occur in permafrost regions including contraction cracking and frost heave. Here we describe the vegetation of patterned-ground forms on zonal sites at three location!: along an N-S transect through the High Arctic of Canada. We made 75 releves on patterned-ground features (circles, polygons, earth hummocks) and adjacent tundra (Interpolygon, intercircle, interhummock areas) and identified and classified the vegetation according to the Braun-Blanquet Method. Environmental factors were correlated with the vegetation data using a nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination (NMDS). We identified eleven commnunities: (1) Puccinellia angustata-Papaver radicalum community in xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone A of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map; (2) Saxifraga-Parmelia omphalodes ssp. glacialis community in hydromesic interpolygon areas of subzone A; (3) Hypogymnia subobscura-Lecanora epibryon community In xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone B; (4) Orthotrichum speciosum-Salix arctica community In xeromesic interpolygon areas of subzone B; (5) Cochlearia groenlandica-Luzula nivalis community in hydromesic earth Mocks Of subzone B; (6) Salix arctica-Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste community in hygric earth hummocks of subzone 13; (7) Puccinellia angustata-Potentilla vahliana community in xeromesic non-sorted circles and bare patches of subzone Q (8) Dryas integrifolia-Carex rupestris community in xeromesic intercircle areas and vegetated patches of subzone C; (9) Braya glabella ssp. purpurascens-Dryas integrifolia community In hydromesic non-sorted circles of subzone Q (10) Dryas integrifolia-Carex aquatilis community in hydromesic intercircle areas of subzone C; and (11) Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste-Carex aquatilis community ill hygric intercircle areas of subzone C. The NMDS ordination displayed the vegetation types with respect to complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the ordination corresponds to a complex soil moisture gradient and the second axis corresponds to a complex geology/elevation/climate gradient. The tundra plots have a greater moss and graminoid cover than the adjacent frost-heave communities. In general, frost-heave features have greater thaw depths, more bare ground, thinner organic horizons, and lower soil moisture than the surrounding tundra. The morphology of the investigated patterned ground forms changes along the climatic gradient, with non-sorted pollygons dominating in the northernmost sites and non-sorted circles dominating, in the southern sites.

Plant species, biomass and environmental characteristics of relevés along the North America Arctic bioclimate gradient

Question: How do interactions between the physical environment and biotic properties of vegetation influence the formation of small patterned-ground features along the Arctic bioclimate gradient? Location: At 68° to 78°N: six locations along the Dalton Highway in arctic Alaska and three in Canada (Banks Island, Prince Patrick Island and Ellef Ringnes Island). Methods: We analysed floristic and structural vegetation, biomass and abiotic data (soil chemical and physical parameters, the n-factor [a soil thermal index] and spectral information [NDVI, LAI]) on 147 microhabitat releves of zonalpatterned-ground features. Using mapping, table analysis (JUICE) and ordination techniques (NMDS). Results: Table analysis using JUICE and the phi-coefficient to identify diagnostic species revealed clear groups of diagnostic plant taxa in four of the five zonal vegetation complexes. Plant communities and zonal complexes were generally well separated in the NMDS ordination. The Alaska and Canada communities were spatially separated in the ordination because of different glacial histories and location in separate floristic provinces, but there was no single controlling environmental gradient. Vegetation structure, particularly that of bryophytes and total biomass, strongly affected thermal properties of the soils. Patterned-ground complexes with the largest thermal differential between the patterned-ground features and the surrounding vegetation exhibited the clearest patterned-ground morphologies.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling.

The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions

14C-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth’s orbital parameters during this perod. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present growing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean–atmosphere and/or vegetation–atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland, and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6% of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanketbog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland,Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre- Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Hemograma e dosagens séricas de alguns eletrólitos, hormônios e proteínas cabras parda alpinas e mestiças parda alpinas x boer submetidas ao estresse pelo calor

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FMVZ

Uso e adequação de tensoestruturas à região Amazônica estudo de caso: Feira do Ver-O-Peso em Belém-Pa

A crescente utilização das tensoestruturas para os mais diversos tipos de uso, nem sempre com a devida preocupação com os aspectos climáticos locais, motivou o presente estudo, o qual avalia a adequação deste tipo de cobertura à Região Amazônica. Em particular, tem-se como objeto de estudo as tensoestruturas da feira do Ver-O-Peso, localizada na cidade de Belém-PA. Neste trabalho, a avaliação do desempenho das coberturas tensionadas utilizadas na feira baseou-se na Arquitetura Bioclimática, com ênfase no desempenho das mesmas como proteção às intempéries. Na metodologia utilizada, a adequação do projeto destas tensoestruturas ao clima da região é verificada utilizando-se os programas Analyses Bio 3.0, o SOL-AR 5.0.1 e o Tensil 2.1. Os resultados obtidos com estes programas permitiram uma análise crítica do projeto das tensoestruturas da feira do Ver-O-Peso, quanto à orientação destas estruturas com relação à direção dos ventos predominantes e incidência dos raios solares, assim como no que diz respeito ao seu desempenho térmico e luminoso. Para estudar precisamente a incidência solar nas estruturas de acordo com a posição do sol, foi desenvolvida uma maquete eletrônica, utilizando-se o programa 3 DS MAX 8. Posteriormente, algumas simulações computacionais foram realizadas considerando as coordenadas geográficas da cidade de Belém e a respectiva trajetória do sol, durante o solstício de verão, solstício de inverno e equinócio; Além das análises realizadas através destes programas, foi desenvolvida também uma pesquisa de campo, com base na aplicação de questionários aos usuários da feira (feirantes e clientes). Os resultados obtidos demonstraram a necessidade de melhoria na proteção no interior destas tensoestruturas, especialmente para as barracas localizadas na periferia da área coberta. Para isso, sugere-se a utilização de um anteparo feito com uma membrana translúcida. Este anteparo, colocado estrategicamente nas regiões mais críticas da cobertura permitiria a passagem da luz, porém diminuindo os efeitos da radiação direta e criaria uma proteção mais eficaz para as chuvas, sem agredir esteticamente o projeto original.