Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Zoneamento bioclimático para a raça ovina Dorper no Estado de Pernambuco

O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar o zoneamento bioclimático para ovinos da raça Dorper, no Estado de Pernambuco. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos médios diários de 246 postos meteorológicos no estado. As variáveis temperatura do ar e umidade relativa do ar foram utilizadas para o cálculo do índice de temperatura e umidade. Com os valores destas variáveis, traçaram-se as isolinhas por meio do programa Surfer. A região do Agreste pernambucano apresenta melhores condições climáticas para a raça Dorper, durante todo o ano, do que a região que compreende o litoral, a Zona da Mata e o Semiárido. Nos meses mais quentes e nas regiões mais críticas, como o Sertão, é necessária a implementação de manejo, como o provimento de sombra, para amenizar o estresse pelo calor e não comprometer o desempenho produtivo da raça.

Puertos del Ras??n y San Isidro

Tratan por separado los puertos del Ras??n y de San Isidro pero siguiendo el mismo esquema en las dos partes. Se tratan los aspectos geogr??ficos, geol??gicos, biogeogr??ficos y bioclim??ticos de la zona, la flora, la vegetaci??n, la fauna, las especies protegidas, la ganader??a...se pretende hacer un llamamiento sobre la necesidad de proteger activamente algunas especies que est??n seriamente amenazadas no s??lo en el concejo de Aller sino en toda Asturias como el urogallo, el armi??o, la nutria, el acebo y el tejo. El primer apartado, Puerto de Ras??n, pretende ser un documento gu??a para que en el caso de que se lleve a cabo una explotaci??n minera a cielo abierto que est?? proyectada, se sepa en la fase de recuperaci??n qu?? hab??a anteriormente y qu?? se debe, por tanto, recuperar. La segunda parte pretende ser una gu??a para el mejor conocimiento de los valores naturales del concejo y aportar una formaci??n b??sica para la ordenaci??n del Puerto de San Isidro.

I Feria Cient??fico-Human??stica

Se describe la I Feria Cient??fico-Human??stica llevada a cabo en el IES Gabriel y Gal??n (Montehermoso, C??ceres), una actividad multidisciplinar y cooperativa, en la que se sigui?? una metodolog??a de trabajo por proyectos. Los trabajos presentados fueron: 'Dentici??n adulta humana', 'El circuito del tubo digestivo', 'Las maravillas del mundo antiguo', 'Casa bioclim??tica', 'Don Quijote reutiliza', 'Formas geom??tricas en la naturaleza y tri??ngulo de Sierpinski', 'Comparte un monumento europeo', 'F??siles: huellas del pasado', 'ADN: mol??cula de la vida', ' Volcanes', 'El tiempo en la antig??edad', 'Ludi romani (Juegos romanos)', 'M??sica reciclada', 'Evoluaci??n de las plantas desde el Jur??sico hasta el siglo XXI' y 'My class is a museum'

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.

Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil

The non-native invasive anuran Lithobates catesbeianus is presently distributed in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Here, we use a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (i) to model the North American native geographic distribution of this species and (ii) to project that model onto the whole of Brazil. After applying a threshold value that balances commission and omission errors, the projection results suggested high probabilities of occurrence mostly in southern and southeastern Brazil. We also present the first report on the species known distribution in Brazil, showing good agreement with model predictions. If the predictive map is interpreted as depicting invasiveness potential of L. catesbeianus, strategies to prevent further invasion in Brazil should be focused especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot.

Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Macroecología y ecoinformática: sesgos, errores y predicciones en el modelado de distribuciones

Hoy en día es común estudiar los patrones globales de biodiversidad a partir de las predicciones generadas por diferentes modelos de nicho ecológico. Habitualmente, estos modelos se calibran con datos procedentes de bases de datos de libre acceso (e.g. GBIF). Sin embargo, a pesar de la facilidad de descarga y de la accesibilidad de los datos, la información almacenada sobre las localidades donde están presentes las especies suele tener sesgos y errores. Estos problemas en los datos de calibración pueden modificar drásticamente las predicciones de los modelos y con ello pueden enmascarar los patrones macroecológicos reales. El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar qué métodos producen resultados más precisos cuando los datos de calibración incluyen sesgos y cuáles producen mejores resultados cuando los datos de calibración tienen, además de sesgos, errores. Para ello creado una especie virtual, hemos proyectado su distribución en la península ibérica, hemos muestreado su distribución de manera sesgada y hemos calibrado dos tipos de modelos de distribución (Bioclim y Maxent) con muestras de distintos tamaños. Nuestros resultados indican que cuando los datos sólo están sesgados, los resultados de Bioclim son mejores que los de Maxent. Sin embargo, Bioclim es extremadamente sensible a la presencia de errores en los datos de calibración. En estas situaciones, el comportamiento de Maxent es mucho más robusto y las predicciones que proporciona son más ajustadas.

¿Realmente importa tanto el tamaño? II: La dieta de dos especies del género Tarentola en el Sáhara Occidental

[ES] La Seguiat el Hamra es una cuenca hidrográfica árida situada en el extremo occidental del desierto del Sáhara. Si en su desembocadura la influencia del Océano Atlántico determina temperaturas tamponadas y cierta humedad ambiental, al este de Smara (26º44’29”N / 11º40’24”O) las condiciones bioclimáticas se endurecen (Ozenda, 1991), provocando un significativo cambio en la composición de las comunidades de vertebrados (Valverde, 1957; Geniez et al., 2004).