Implications of retaining woody regrowth for carbon sequestration for an extensive grazing beef business: a bio-economic modelling case study

A bio-economic modelling framework (GRASP-ENTERPRISE) was used to assess the implications of retaining woody regrowth for carbon sequestration on a case study beef grazing property in northern Australia. Five carbon farming scenarios, ranging from 0% to 100% of the property regrowth retained for carbon sequestration, were simulated over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Dedicating regrowth on the property for carbon sequestration reduced pasture (up to 40%) and herd productivity (up to 20%), and resulted in financial losses (up to 24% reduction in total gross margin). A net carbon income (income after grazing management expenses are removed) of $2–4 per t CO2-e was required to offset economic losses of retaining regrowth on a moderately productive (~8 ha adult equivalent–1) property where income was from the sale of weaners. A higher opportunity cost ($ t–1 CO2-e) of retaining woody regrowth is likely for feeder steer or finishing operations, with improved cattle prices, and where the substantial transaction and reporting costs are included. Although uncertainty remains around the price received for carbon farming activities, this study demonstrated that a conservatively stocked breeding operation can achieve positive production, environmental and economic outcomes, including net carbon stock. This study was based on a beef enterprise in central Queensland’s grazing lands, however, the approach and learnings are expected to be applicable across northern Australia where regrowth is present.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

'Heures' a bio-economic model for Mediterranean fisheries, towards the evaluation of management strategies

The bio-economic model "Heures" is a first attempt to develop a simulation procedure to understand the Northwestern Mediterranean fisheries, to evaluate management strategies and to analyze the feasibility of implementing an adaptative management. The model is built on the interaction among three boxes simulating the dynamics of each of the basic actors of a fishery: the stock, the market and the fishermen. A fourth actor, the manager, imposes or modifies the rules, or, in terms of the model, modifies some particular parameters. Thus, the model allows us to simulate and evaluate the mid-term biologic and economic effects of particular management measures. The bio-economic nature of the model is given by the interaction among the three boxes, by the market simulation and, particularly, by the fishermen behaviour. This last element confers to the model its Mediterranean"selfregulated" character. The fishermen allocate their investments to maximize fishing mortality but, having a legal effort limit, they invest in maintenance and technology in order to increase the catchability, which, as a consequence. will be function of the invested capital.

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby fanners. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Techno-economic modelling and cost functions of CO2 capture processes

The paper presents the techno-economic modelling of CO2 capture process in coal-fired power plants. An overall model is being developed to compare carbon capture and sequestration options at locations within the UK, and for studies of the sensitivity of the cost of disposal to changes in the major parameters of the most promising solutions identified. Technological options of CO2 capture have been studied and cost estimation relationships (CERs) for the chosen options calculated. Created models are related to the capital, operation and maintenance cost. A total annualised cost of plant electricity output and amount of CO2 avoided have been developed. The influence of interest rates and plant life has been analysed as well. The CERs are included as an integral part of the overall model.

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

A bio-economic appraisal of pair trawl fisheries off southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required.

Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.