Biased selection within the social health insurance market in Colombia

Las regulaciones como primaje comunitario, paquetes estandarizados y afiliación abierta, orientadas a reducir el impacto de las fallas en los mercados de seguros, tienen un efecto limitado puesto que abren espacio a la selección sesgada. A partir de 1993, el sistema de seguridad social en salud en Colombia fue reformado hacia un enfoque de mercado con la expectativa de mejorar el desempeño de los monopolios preexistentes exponiéndolos a la competencia de nuevos entrantes. La hipótesis que se maneja en el trabajo es que las fallas de mercado pueden llevar a selección sesgada favoreciendo a los nuevos entrantes. Se analizaron dos encuestas de hogares utilizando el estado de salud auto reportado y la presencia de enfermedad crónica como indicadores prospectivos del riesgo de los afiliados. Se encuentra que hay selección sesgada, llevando a selección adversa entre los aseguradores preexistentes, y a selección favorable entre los nuevos entrantes. Este patrón se observa en 1997 y se incrementa en el 2003. Aunque las entidades preexistentes son entidades públicas, y su tamaño disminuyó sustancialmente entre estos años, se analizan sus implicaciones fiscales en términos de financiación adicional por parte del gobierno.

Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

Diversifying selection and color-biased dispersal in the asp viper.

BACKGROUND: The presence of intraspecific color polymorphism can have multiple impacts on the ecology of a species; as a consequence, particular color morphs may be strongly selected for in a given habitat type. For example, the asp viper (Vipera aspis) shows a high level of color polymorphism. A blotched morph (cryptic) is common throughout its range (central and western Europe), while a melanistic morph is frequently found in montane populations, presumably for thermoregulatory reasons. Besides, rare atypical uniformly colored individuals are known here and there. Nevertheless, we found in a restricted treeless area of the French Alps, a population containing a high proportion (>50%) of such specimens. The aim of the study is to bring insight into the presence and function of this color morph by (i) studying the genetic structure of these populations using nine microsatellite markers, and testing for (ii) a potential local diversifying selection and (iii) differences in dispersal capacity between blotched and non-blotched vipers. RESULTS: Our genetic analyses support the occurrence of local diversifying selection for the non-blotched phenotype. In addition, we found significant color-biased dispersal, blotched individuals dispersing more than atypical individuals. CONCLUSION: We hypothesize that, in this population, the non-blotched phenotype possess an advantage over the typical one, a phenomenon possibly due to a better background matching ability in a more open habitat. In addition, color-biased dispersal might be partly associated with the observed local diversifying selection, as it can affect the genetic structure of populations, and hence the distribution of color morphs.

CTL recognition of a bulged viral peptide involves biased TCR selection

MHC class I molecules generally present peptides of 8-10 aa long, forming an extended coil in the HLA cleft. Although longer peptides can also bind to class I molecules, they tend to bulge from the cleft and it is not known whether the TCR repertoire has sufficient plasticity to recognize these determinants during the antiviral CTL response. In this study, we show that unrelated individuals infected with EBV generate a significant CTL response directed toward an HLA-B*3501-restricted, 11-mer epitope from the BZLF1 Ag. The 11-mer determinant adopts a highly bulged conformation with seven of the peptide side chains being solvent-exposed and available for TCR interaction. Such a complex potentially creates a structural challenge for TCR corecognition of both HLA-B*3501 and the peptide Ag. Surprisingly, unrelated B*3501 donors recognizing the 11-mer use identical or closely related alpha beta TCR sequences that share particular CDR3 motifs. Within the small number of dominant CTL clonotypes observed, each has discrete fine specificity for the exposed-side chain residues of the peptide. The data show that bulged viral peptides are indeed immunogenic but suggest that the highly constrained TCR repertoire reflects a limit to TCR diversity when responding to some unusual MHC peptide ligands.

Antigen Selection of Anti-DSG1 Autoantibodies During and Before the Onset of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus

Fogo selvagem (FS), the endemic form of pemphigus foliaceus (PF), is characterized by pathogenic anti-desmoglein 1 (DSG1) autoantibodies. To study the etiology of FS, hybridomas that secrete either IgM or IgG (predominantly IgG1 subclass) autoantibodies were generated from the B cells of eight FS patients and one individual 4 years before FS onset, and the H and L chain V genes of anti-DSG1 autoantibodies were analyzed. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that these anti-DSG1 autoantibodies are antigen selected. First, clonally related sets of anti-DSG1 hybridomas characterize the response in individual FS patients. Second, H and L chain V gene use seems to be biased, particularly among IgG hybridomas, and third, most hybridomas are mutants and exhibit a bias in favor of CDR (complementary determining region) amino acid replacement (R) mutations. Strikingly, pre-FS hybridomas also exhibit evidence of antigen selection, including an overlap in V(H) gene use and shared multiple R mutations with anti-DSG1 FS hybridomas, suggesting selection by the same or a similar antigen. We conclude that the anti-DSG1 response in FS is antigen driven and that selection for mutant anti-DSG1 B cells begins well before the onset of disease.

Sex-biased hatching sequences in the cooperatively breeding Noisy Miner

The Noisy Miner Manorina melanocephala (Meliphagidae) is a cooperatively breeding bird species in which sons often remain on their natal home ranges and help one or both of their parents. In a population of Noisy Miners in SE Queensland, Australia, a molecular technique was used to explore adult and offspring sex ratios. and also hatching sequences. Among the adult population, there were 2.31 males for every female, and roughly 99% of helping was performed by males. At hatching and fledging, the population sex ratio was even, with exactly 57 males and 57 females. However, in 17 out of 18 broods the first egg to hatch was male, First-hatched males were significantly larger and heavier than their sisters just prior to fledging. Through their helping behaviour, large healthy sons could clearly enhance the future reproductive success of parents. and benefit the entire group. Sex-biased hatching sequences could potentially provide cooperatively breeding birds with a subtle and precise way of varying investment in the helping sex.

Human and murine clonal CD8+ T cell expansions arise during tuberculosis because of TCR selection

The immune system can recognize virtually any antigen, yet T cell responses against several pathogens, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are restricted to a limited number of immunodominant epitopes. The host factors that affect immunodominance are incompletely understood. Whether immunodominant epitopes elicit protective CD8+ T cell responses or instead act as decoys to subvert immunity and allow pathogens to establish chronic infection is unknown. Here we show that anatomically distinct human granulomas contain clonally expanded CD8+ T cells with overlapping T cell receptor (TCR) repertoires. Similarly, the murine CD8+ T cell response against M. tuberculosis is dominated by TB10.44-11-specific T cells with extreme TCRß bias. Using a retro genic model of TB10.44-11-specific CD8+ Tcells, we show that TCR dominance can arise because of competition between clonotypes driven by differences in affinity. Finally, we demonstrate that TB10.4-specific CD8+ T cells mediate protection against tuberculosis, which requires interferon-? production and TAP1-dependent antigen presentation in vivo. Our study of how immunodominance, biased TCR repertoires, and protection are inter-related, provides a new way to measure the quality of T cell immunity, which if applied to vaccine evaluation, could enhance our understanding of how to elicit protective T cell immunity.

On the maintenance of sex-chromosome polymorphism by sex-antagonistic selection

Complex sex-determination systems are a priori unstable and require specific selective forces for their maintenance. Analytical derivations have suggested that sex-antagonistic selection may play such a role, but this assumed absence of recombination between the sex-determining and sex-antagonistic genes. Using individual-based simulations, and focusing on the sex chromosome and coloration polymorphisms of platy fishes as a case study, we show that the conditions for polymorphism maintenance induce female-biases in primary sex ratios, so that sex-ratio selection makes the system collapse towards male- or female heterogamety as soon as recombinant genotypes appear. However, a polymorphism can still be maintained under scenarios comprising strong sexual selection against dull males, mild natural selection against bright females, and low recombination rates. Though such conditions are plausibly met in natural populations of fishes harbouring such polymorphisms, quantitative empirical evaluations are required to properly test whether sex-antagonistic selection is a causal agent, or if other selective processes are required (such as local mate competition favouring female biased sex ratios).

Age-dependent gain of alternative splice forms and biased duplication explain the relation between splicing and duplication.

We analyze here the relation between alternative splicing and gene duplication in light of recent genomic data, with a focus on the human genome. We show that the previously reported negative correlation between level of alternative splicing and family size no longer holds true. We clarify this pattern and show that it is sufficiently explained by two factors. First, genes progressively gain new splice variants with time. The gain is consistent with a selectively relaxed regime, until purifying selection slows it down as aging genes accumulate a large number of variants. Second, we show that duplication does not lead to a loss of splice forms, but rather that genes with low levels of alternative splicing tend to duplicate more frequently. This leads us to reconsider the role of alternative splicing in duplicate retention.

Testing kin selection with sex allocation data in eusocial hymenoptera

Sex allocation data in eusocial Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of kin selection, because queens and workers differ in their relatedness to females and males. The first studies on sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera compared population sex investment ratios across species. Female-biased investment in monogyne (= with single-queen colonies) populations of ants suggested that workers manipulate sex allocation according to their higher relatedness to females than males (relatedness asymmetry). However, several factors may confound these comparisons across species. First, variation in relatedness asymmetry is typically associated with major changes in breeding system and life history that may also affect sex allocation. Secondly, the relative cost of females and males is difficult to estimate across sexually dimorphic taxa, such as ants. Thirdly, each species in the comparison may not represent an independent data point, because of phylogenetic relationships among species. Recently, stronger evidence that workers control sex allocation has been provided by intraspecific studies of sex ratio variation across colonies. In several species of eusocial Hymenoptera, colonies with high relatedness asymmetry produced mostly females, in contrast to colonies with low relatedness asymmetry which produced mostly males. Additional signs of worker control were found by investigating proximate mechanisms of sex ratio manipulation in ants and wasps. However, worker control is not always effective, and further manipulative experiments will be needed to disentangle the multiple evolutionary factors and processes affecting sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera.

Biased gene conversion and GC-content evolution in the coding sequences of reptiles and vertebrates.

Mammalian and avian genomes are characterized by a substantial spatial heterogeneity of GC-content, which is often interpreted as reflecting the effect of local GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC), a meiotic repair bias that favors G and C over A and T alleles in high-recombining genomic regions. Surprisingly, the first fully sequenced nonavian sauropsid (i.e., reptile), the green anole Anolis carolinensis, revealed a highly homogeneous genomic GC-content landscape, suggesting the possibility that gBGC might not be at work in this lineage. Here, we analyze GC-content evolution at third-codon positions (GC3) in 44 vertebrates species, including eight newly sequenced transcriptomes, with a specific focus on nonavian sauropsids. We report that reptiles, including the green anole, have a genome-wide distribution of GC3 similar to that of mammals and birds, and we infer a strong GC3-heterogeneity to be already present in the tetrapod ancestor. We further show that the dynamic of coding sequence GC-content is largely governed by karyotypic features in vertebrates, notably in the green anole, in agreement with the gBGC hypothesis. The discrepancy between third-codon positions and noncoding DNA regarding GC-content dynamics in the green anole could not be explained by the activity of transposable elements or selection on codon usage. This analysis highlights the unique value of third-codon positions as an insertion/deletion-free marker of nucleotide substitution biases that ultimately affect the evolution of proteins.

Genetic clusters and sex-biased gene flow in a unicolonial Formica ant.

BACKGROUND: Animal societies are diverse, ranging from small family-based groups to extraordinarily large social networks in which many unrelated individuals interact. At the extreme of this continuum, some ant species form unicolonial populations in which workers and queens can move among multiple interconnected nests without eliciting aggression. Although unicoloniality has been mostly studied in invasive ants, it also occurs in some native non-invasive species. Unicoloniality is commonly associated with very high queen number, which may result in levels of relatedness among nestmates being so low as to raise the question of the maintenance of altruism by kin selection in such systems. However, the actual relatedness among cooperating individuals critically depends on effective dispersal and the ensuing pattern of genetic structuring. In order to better understand the evolution of unicoloniality in native non-invasive ants, we investigated the fine-scale population genetic structure and gene flow in three unicolonial populations of the wood ant F. paralugubris. RESULTS: The analysis of geo-referenced microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial haplotypes revealed the presence of cryptic clusters of genetically-differentiated nests in the three populations of F. paralugubris. Because of this spatial genetic heterogeneity, members of the same clusters were moderately but significantly related. The comparison of nuclear (microsatellite) and mitochondrial differentiation indicated that effective gene flow was male-biased in all populations. CONCLUSION: The three unicolonial populations exhibited male-biased and mostly local gene flow. The high number of queens per nest, exchanges among neighbouring nests and restricted long-distance gene flow resulted in large clusters of genetically similar nests. The positive relatedness among clustermates suggests that kin selection may still contribute to the maintenance of altruism in unicolonial populations if competition occurs among clusters.

Local Competition, Inbreeding, and the Evolution of Sex-Biased Dispersal.

Using game theory, we developed a kin-selection model to investigate the consequences of local competition and inbreeding depression on the evolution of natal dispersal. Mating systems have the potential to favor strong sex biases in dispersal because sex differences in potential reproductive success affect the balance between local resource competition and local mate competition. No bias is expected when local competition equally affects males and females, as happens in monogamous systems and also in polygynous or promiscuous ones as long as female fitness is limited by extrinsic factors (breeding resources). In contrast, a male-biased dispersal is predicted when local mate competition exceeds local resource competition, as happens under polygyny/promiscuity when female fitness is limited by intrinsic factors (maximal rate of processing resources rather than resources themselves). This bias is reinforced by among-sex interactions: female philopatry enhances breeding opportunities for related males, while male dispersal decreases the chances that related females will inbreed. These results meet empirical patterns in mammals: polygynous/promiscuous species usually display a male-biased dispersal, while both sexes disperse in monogamous species. A parallel is drawn with sex-ratio theory, which also predicts biases toward the sex that suffers less from local competition. Optimal sex ratios and optimal sex-specific dispersal show mutual dependence, which argues for the development of coevolution models.

Sex allocation and sex-dependent selection for body size in Trypoxylon rogenhoferi Kohl (Hymenoptera, Sphecidae)

Two populations of the wasp Trypoxylon rogenhoferi Kohl, 1884 from São Carlos and Luís Antônio, State of São Paulo, Brazil, were observed and sampled from May 1999 to February 2001 using trap-nests. This mass-provisioning wasp was used to test some aspects of optimal sex allocation theory. Both populations fit all the predictions of the models of Green and Brockmann and Grafen. Maternal provisions determined the size of each offspring, and females allocated well-stocked brood cells to daughters, the sex that benefits most being large. This strategy resulted in a difference in size between the sexes. In São Carlos, female weight at emergence was 1.18 times that of males, in Luís Antônio this value was 1.13. The brood cell volume was correlated with both wing length and weight at emergence in both sexes, and the chance that a given brood cell contained a male offspring decreased with increased brood cell volume. In T. rogenhoferi female body size was related to fitness. Larger females were able to collect more mass of spiders per day, the spiders they captured were heavier, and they provisioned more brood cells per day. They also produced larger daughters. For males, no relationship between body size and fitness was found, but the data were scarce. Since the patterns of provisioning were variable among different females in both study sites, it is possible that the females not follow a unique strategy for sex allocation. The sex ratio and/or investment ratio in the São Carlos population was female-biased and in Luís Antônio, male-biased. In spite of the influence of trap-nests diameters on male production in Luís Antônio, there is some evidence that in São Carlos population the local availability of prey and/or lower rate of parasitism may be major forces in determining the observed sex ratio, but further studies are necessary to verify such hypothesis.