Multiplication and comultiplication of beliefs

Multiplication and comultiplication of beliefs represent a generalisation of multiplication and comultiplication of probabilities as well as of binary logic AND and OR. Our approach follows that of subjective logic, where belief functions are expressed as opinions that are interpreted as being equivalent to beta probability distributions. We compare different types of opinion product and coproduct, and show that they represent very good approximations of the analytical product and coproduct of beta probability distributions. We also define division and codivision of opinions, and compare our framework with other logic frameworks for combining uncertain propositions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Belief change with noisy sensing in the situation calculus

Situation calculus has been applied widely in arti?cial intelligence to model and reason about actions and changes in dynamic systems. Since actions carried out by agents will cause constant changes of the agents’ beliefs, how to manage
these changes is a very important issue. Shapiro et al. [22] is one of the studies that considered this issue. However, in this framework, the problem of noisy sensing, which often presents in real-world applications, is not considered. As a
consequence, noisy sensing actions in this framework will lead to an agent facing inconsistent situation and subsequently the agent cannot proceed further. In this paper, we investigate how noisy sensing actions can be handled in iterated
belief change within the situation calculus formalism. We extend the framework proposed in [22] with the capability of managing noisy sensings. We demonstrate that an agent can still detect the actual situation when the ratio of noisy sensing actions vs. accurate sensing actions is limited. We prove that our framework subsumes the iterated belief change strategy in [22] when all sensing actions are accurate. Furthermore, we prove that our framework can adequately handle belief introspection, mistaken beliefs, belief revision and belief update even with noisy sensing, as done in [22] with accurate sensing actions only.

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.

Attitudes towards inclusion : gaps between belief and practice

General education teachers in the Republic of Korea were investigated regarding their participation in programs to include students with disabilities in general education settings. Previous studies have shown that even general education teachers with positive attitudes towards inclusion are reluctant in practice to have students with disabilities in their classrooms. This study examines 33 Korean general education teachers from three primary schools in Seoul regarding their attitudes towards, and willingness to accommodate, the needs of a student with a disability. The results show that 41.37% of general education teachers had positive attitudes towards inclusion programs, while 55.16% were unwilling to actually participate. Quantitative data obtained through a questionnaire was supplemented by qualitative data obtained through interviews. The interviews focused on the positive and negative effects of inclusion, as well as problems in implementing inclusive education programs. The findings will be discussed in the light of previous international research and will highlight links between the age and teaching experience of general education teachers and their negative attitudes towards inclusion.

Personal epistemology in pre-service teachers : belief changes throughout a teacher education course

Classrooms of the 21st century are complex systems. They support diverse learners from varied contexts and function in a “messy” bricolage of policy contexts. This complexity is also evident in the nature of teaching and learning deployed in these classrooms. There is also, in current contexts, a general expectation that teachers will support students to construct, rather than simply receive knowledge. This process of constructing knowledge requires a focus on critical thinking in complex social and real world contexts (see also Elen & Clarebout, 2001; Yang, Chang & Hsu 2008). Critical thinking, which involves the identification and evaluation of multiple perspectives when making decisions, is a process of knowing – a tool of wisdom (Kuhn & Udell, 2001). Schommer-Aikens, Bird and Bakken (2010) refer to classrooms that encourage critical thinking as “epistemologically based” in which “the teacher encourages his/her students to look for connections among concepts within the text, with their prior knowledge, and with concepts found in the world beyond themselves” (p. 48).