964 resultados para Baseline forecast


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This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

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OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e analisar fatores associados ao retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo “baseline”, que analisou 2.040 menores de cinco anos, verificando possíveis associações entre o retardo estatural (índice altura/idade ≤ 2 escores Z) e variáveis hierarquizadas em seis blocos: socioeconômicas, do domicílio, do saneamento, maternas, biológicas e de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A análise multivariada foi realizada por regressão de Poisson, com opção de erro padrão robusto, obtendo-se as razões de prevalência ajustadas, com IC 95por cento e respectivos valores de significância. RESULTADOS: Entre as variáveis não dicotômicas, houve associação positiva com tipo de teto e número de moradores por cômodo e associação negativa com renda, escolaridade da mãe e peso ao nascer. A análise ajustada indicou ainda como variáveis significantes: abastecimento de água, visita do agente comunitário de saúde, local do parto, internação por diarréia e internação por pneumonia. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores identificados como de risco para o retardo estatural configuram a multicausalidade do problema, implicando na necessidade de intervenções multisetoriais e multiníveis para o seu controle

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Introduction. This method is used to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches from as early as the plant shooting stage. It facilitates the harvest of bunches with the same physiological age. The principle, key advantages, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. Details of the four steps of the method ( installation of the temperature sensor, tagging bunches at the flowering stage, temperature sum calculation and estimation of bunch harvest date) are described. Possible problems are discussed. Results. The application of the method allows drawing a curve of the temperature sum accumulated by the bunches which have to be harvested at exactly 900 degree-days physiological age.

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A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18 x 10(20) protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between similar to 500 MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as nu(mu), the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the nu(mu) flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C. L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles theta(24) and theta(34) are constrained to be less than 11 degrees and 56 degrees at 90% C. L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime tau(3)/m(3) > 2.1 x 10(-12) s/eV at 90% C.L.

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We report the first detailed comparisons of the rates and spectra of neutral-current neutrino interactions at two widely separated locations. A depletion in the rate at the far site would indicate mixing between nu(mu) and a sterile particle. No anomalous depletion in the reconstructed energy spectrum is observed. Assuming oscillations occur at a single mass-squared splitting, a fit to the neutral- and charged-current energy spectra limits the fraction of nu(mu) oscillating to a sterile neutrino to be below 0.68 at 90% confidence level. A less stringent limit due to a possible contribution to the measured neutral-current event rate at the far site from nu(e) appearance at the current experimental limit is also presented.

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OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

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Spinosad was an effective larvicide against the Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina. A survey of 41 field populations indicated no cross-resistance to spinosad from existing organophosphate resistance. The data presented serve as baseline data for future resistance surveys.

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Methods. Data from the Beginning and Ending Supportive Therapy for the Kidney (BEST Kidney) study, a prospective observational study from 54 ICUs in 23 countries of critically ill patients with severe AKI, were analysed. The RIFLE class was determined by using observed (o) pre-morbid and estimated (e) baseline SCr values. Agreement was evaluated by correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Sensitivity analysis by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status was performed. Results. Seventy-six percent of patients (n = 1327) had a pre-morbid baseline SCr, and 1314 had complete data for evaluation. Forty-six percent had CKD. The median (IQR) values were 97 mu mol/L (79-150) for oSCr and 88 mu mol/L (71-97) for eSCr. The oSCr and eSCr determined at ICU admission and at study enrolment showed only a modest correlation (r = 0.49, r = 0.39). At ICU admission and study enrolment, eSCr misclassified 18.8% and 11.7% of patients as having AKI compared with oSCr. Exclusion of CKD patients improved the correlation between oSCr and eSCr at ICU admission and study enrolment (r = 0.90, r = 0.84) resulting in 6.6% and 4.0% being misclassified, respectively. Conclusions. While limited, estimating baseline SCr by the MDRD equation when pre-morbid SCr is unavailable would appear to perform reasonably well for determining the RIFLE categories only if and when pre-morbid GFR was near normal. However, in patients with suspected CKD, the use of MDRD to estimate baseline SCr overestimates the incidence of AKI and should not likely be used. Improved methods to estimate baseline SCr are needed.

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We evaluated the associations between glycemic therapies and prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) at baseline among participants in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial on medical and revascularization therapies for coronary artery disease (CAD) and on insulin-sensitizing vs. insulin-providing treatments for diabetes. A total of 2,368 patients with type 2 diabetes and CAD was evaluated. DPN was defined as clinical examination score > 2 using the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI). DPN odds ratios across different groups of glycemic therapy were evaluated by multiple logistic regression adjusted for multiple covariates including age, sex, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and diabetes duration. Fifty-one percent of BARI 2D subjects with valid baseline characteristics and MNSI scores had DPN. After adjusting for all variables, use of insulin was significantly associated with DPN (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.15-2.13). Patients on sulfonylurea (SU) or combination of SU/metformin (Met)/thiazolidinediones (TZD) had marginally higher rates of DPN than the Met/TZD group. This cross-sectional study in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and CAD showed association of insulin use with higher DPN prevalence, independent of disease duration, glycemic control, and other characteristics. The causality between a glycemic control strategy and DPN cannot be evaluated in this cross-sectional study, but continued assessment of DPN and randomized therapies in BARI 2D trial may provide further explanations on the development of DPN.

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Many lines of evidence indicate that theta rhythm, a prominent neural oscillatory mode found in the mammalian hippocampus, plays a key role in the acquisition, processing, and retrieval of memories. However, a predictive neurophysiological feature of the baseline theta rhythm that correlates with the learning rate across different animals has yet to be identified. Here we show that the mean theta rhythm speed observed during baseline periods of immobility has a strong positive correlation with the rate at which rats learn an operant task. This relationship is observed across rats, during both quiet waking (r=0.82; p<0.01) and paradoxical sleep (r=0.83; p<0.01), suggesting that the basal theta frequency relates to basic neurological processes that are important in the acquisition of operant behavior. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Dopamine (DA) is a neuromodulator in the brainstem involved with the generation and modulation of the autonomic and respiratory activities. Here we evaluated the effect of microinjection of DA intracistema magna (icm) or into the caudal nucleus tractus solitarii (cNTS) on the baseline cardiovascular and respiratory parameters and on the cardiovascular and respiratory responses to chemoreflex activation in awake rats. Guide cannulas were implanted in cisterna magna or cNTS and femoral artery and vein were catheterized. Respiratory frequency (f(R)) was measured by whole-body plethysmography. Chemoreflex was activated with KCN (iv) before and after microinjection of DA icm or into the cNTS bilaterally while mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and f(R) were recorded. Microinjection of DA icm (n = 13), but not into the cNTS (n = 8) produced a significant decrease in baseline MAP (-15 +/- 1 vs 1 +/- 1 mm Hg) and HR (-55 +/- 11 vs -11 +/- 17 bpm) in relation to control (saline with ascorbic acid, n = 9) but no significant changes in baseline f(R). Microinjection of DA icm or into the cNTS produced no significant changes in the pressor, bradycardic and tachypneic responses to chemoreflex activation. These data show that a) DA icm affects baseline cardiovascular regulation, but not baseline f(R) and autonomic and respiratory components of chemoreflex and b) DA into the cNTS does not affect either the autonomic activity to the cardiovascular system or the autonomic and respiratory responses of chemoreflex activation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Members of the community contribute to survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by contacting emergency medical services and performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) prior to the arrival of an ambulance. In Australia there is a paucity of information of the extent that community members know the emergency telephone number and are trained in CPR. A survey of Queensland adults (n = 4490) was conducted to ascertain current knowledge and training levels and to target CPR training. Although most respondents (88.3%) could state the Australian emergency telephone number correctly, significant age differences were apparent (P < 0.001). One in five respondents aged 60 years and older could not state the emergency number correctly. While just over half the respondents (53.9%) had completed some form of CPR training, only 12.1% had recent training. Older people were more likely to have never had CPR training than young adults. Additional demographic and socio-economic differences were found between those never trained in CPR and those who were. The results emphasise the need to increase CPR training in those aged 40 and over, particularly females, and to increase the awareness of the emergency telephone number amongst older people. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.