Consumers Performance Evaluation of the Participation in Demand Response Programs Using Baseline Methods

Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.

Does metabolic compensation explain the majority of less-than-expected weight loss in obese adults during a short-term severe diet and exercise intervention?

Objective:We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention.Design:In all, 16 obese men and women (41±9 years; body mass index (BMI) 39±6 kg m(-2)) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week very-low-energy diet(565-650 kcal per day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74%-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants 9.45 kcal per g FM and 1.13 kcal per g FFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the EDef using the '7700 kcal kg(-1) rule'.Results:Changes in weight (-18.6±5.0 kg), FM (-15.5±4.3 kg) and FFM (-3.1±1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39% to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01), and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of the predicted values.Conclusion:Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. Although lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic downregulation should not be discounted.

Using Baseline Methods to Identify Non-technical Losses in the Context of Smart Grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers’ performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data.

Amplification efficiency: linking baseline and bias in the analysis of quantitative PCR data.

Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.

Using baseline methods to identify non-technical losses in the context of smart grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers' performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data. © 2013 IEEE.

Retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos: um estudo "baseline"

OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e analisar fatores associados ao retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo “baseline”, que analisou 2.040 menores de cinco anos, verificando possíveis associações entre o retardo estatural (índice altura/idade ≤ 2 escores Z) e variáveis hierarquizadas em seis blocos: socioeconômicas, do domicílio, do saneamento, maternas, biológicas e de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A análise multivariada foi realizada por regressão de Poisson, com opção de erro padrão robusto, obtendo-se as razões de prevalência ajustadas, com IC 95por cento e respectivos valores de significância. RESULTADOS: Entre as variáveis não dicotômicas, houve associação positiva com tipo de teto e número de moradores por cômodo e associação negativa com renda, escolaridade da mãe e peso ao nascer. A análise ajustada indicou ainda como variáveis significantes: abastecimento de água, visita do agente comunitário de saúde, local do parto, internação por diarréia e internação por pneumonia. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores identificados como de risco para o retardo estatural configuram a multicausalidade do problema, implicando na necessidade de intervenções multisetoriais e multiníveis para o seu controle

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18 x 10(20) protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between similar to 500 MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as nu(mu), the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the nu(mu) flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C. L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles theta(24) and theta(34) are constrained to be less than 11 degrees and 56 degrees at 90% C. L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime tau(3)/m(3) > 2.1 x 10(-12) s/eV at 90% C.L.

Search for Active Neutrino Disappearance Using Neutral-Current Interactions in the MINOS Long-Baseline Experiment

We report the first detailed comparisons of the rates and spectra of neutral-current neutrino interactions at two widely separated locations. A depletion in the rate at the far site would indicate mixing between nu(mu) and a sterile particle. No anomalous depletion in the reconstructed energy spectrum is observed. Assuming oscillations occur at a single mass-squared splitting, a fit to the neutral- and charged-current energy spectra limits the fraction of nu(mu) oscillating to a sterile neutrino to be below 0.68 at 90% confidence level. A less stringent limit due to a possible contribution to the measured neutral-current event rate at the far site from nu(e) appearance at the current experimental limit is also presented.

Hyperpolarizabilities of the methanol molecule: A CCSD calculation including vibrational corrections

In this work we present the results for hyperpolarizabilities of the methanol molecule including vibrational corrections and electron correlation effects at the CCSD level. Comparisons to random phase approximation results previously reported show that the electron correlation is in general important for both electronic contribution and vibrational corrections. The role played by the anharmonicities on the calculations of the vibrational corrections has also been analyzed and the obtained results indicate that the anharmonic terms are important for the dc-Pockels and dc-Kerr effects. For the other nonlinear optical properties studied the double-harmonic approximation is found to be suitable. Comparison to available experimental result in gas phase for the dc-second harmonic generation second hyperpolarizability shows a very good agreement with the electronic contribution calculated here while our total value is 14% larger than the experimental value.

Approximation to density functional theory for the calculation of band gaps of semiconductors

The local-density approximation (LDA) together with the half occupation (transitionstate) is notoriously successful in the calculation of atomic ionization potentials. When it comes to extended systems, such as a semiconductor infinite system, it has been very difficult to find a way to half ionize because the hole tends to be infinitely extended (a Bloch wave). The answer to this problem lies in the LDA formalism itself. One proves that the half occupation is equivalent to introducing the hole self-energy (electrostatic and exchange correlation) into the Schrodinger equation. The argument then becomes simple: The eigenvalue minus the self-energy has to be minimized because the atom has a minimal energy. Then one simply proves that the hole is localized, not infinitely extended, because it must have maximal self-energy. Then one also arrives at an equation similar to the self- interaction correction equation, but corrected for the removal of just 1/2 electron. Applied to the calculation of band gaps and effective masses, we use the self- energy calculated in atoms and attain a precision similar to that of GW, but with the great advantage that it requires no more computational effort than standard LDA.

Analytical calculation of the transition to complete phase synchronization in coupled oscillators

Here we present a system of coupled phase oscillators with nearest neighbors coupling, which we study for different boundary conditions. We concentrate at the transition to the total synchronization. We are able to develop exact solutions for the value of the coupling parameter when the system becomes completely synchronized, for the case of periodic boundary conditions as well as for a chain with fixed ends. We compare the results with those calculated numerically.

Vegetable Oil Quenchants: Calculation and Comparison of The Cooling Properties of a Series of Vegetable Oils

The compositions of canola, soybean, corn, cottonseed and sunflower oils suggest that they exhibit substantially different propensity for oxidation following the order of Canola < corn < cottonseed < sunflower approximate to soybean. These data suggest that any of the vegetable oils evaluated could be blended with minimal impact on viscosity although compositional differences would surely affect oxidative stability. Cooling curve analysis showed that similar cooling profiles were obtained for different vegetable oils. Interestingly, no film boiling or transition nucleate boiling was observed with any of the vegetable oils and heat transfer occurs only by pure nucleate boiling and convection. High-temperature cooling properties of vegetable oils are considerable faster than those observed for petroleum oil-based quenchants. (C)2010 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved.

Power Factor Calculation by the Finite Element Method

The use of finite element analysis (FEA) to design electrical motors has increased significantly in the past few years due the increasingly better performance of modern computers. Even though the analytical software remains the most used tool, the FEA is widely used to refine the analysis and gives the final design to be prototyped. The power factor, a standard data of motor manufactures data sheet is important because it shows how much reactive power is consumed by the motor. This data becomes important when the motor is connected to network. However, the calculation of power factor is not an easy task. Due to the saturation phenomena the input motor current has a high level of harmonics that cannot be neglected. In this work the FEA is used to evaluate a proposed (not limitative) methodology to estimate the power factor or displacement factor of a small single-phase induction motor. Results of simulations and test are compared.