889 resultados para Barrow Island, expert elicitation, invasive species, Rattus, statistical design


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The nocturnal, terrestrial frog Eleutherodactylus coqui, known as the Coqui, is endemic to Puerto Rico and was accidentally introduced to Hawai‘i via nursery plants in the late 1980s. Over the past two decades E. coqui has spread to the four main Hawaiian Islands, and a major campaign was launched to eliminate and control it. One of the primary reasons this frog has received attention is its loud mating call (85–90 dB at 0.5 m). Many homeowners do not want the frogs on their property, and their presence has influenced housing prices. In addition, E. coqui has indirectly impacted the floriculture industry because customers are reticent to purchase products potentially infested with frogs. Eleutherodactylus coqui attains extremely high densities in Hawai‘i, up to 91,000 frogs ha-1, and can reproduce year-round, once every 1–2 months, and become reproductive around 8–9 months. Although the Coqui has been hypothesized to potentially compete with native insectivores, the most obvious potential ecological impact of the invasion is predation on invertebrate populations and disruption of associated ecosystem processes. Multiple forms of control have been attempted in Hawai‘i with varying success. The most successful control available at this time is citric acid. Currently, the frog is established throughout the island of Hawai‘i but may soon be eliminated on the other Hawaiian Islands via control efforts. Eradication is deemed no longer possible on the island of Hawai‘i.

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While a number of plants, animals, and insects in Madagascar have been called 'invasive', the topic of invasive species has until recently received less attention here than in other island contexts. Some species, often alien to Madagascar and introduced by humans, have expanded their range rapidly and have had both negative and positive effects on landscapes, on native biodiversity, and on livelihoods. Examples include the prickly pear (raketa), the silver wattle (mimosa), and, recently, the Asian common toad (radaka boka). Building on a conceptual approach to 'invasive species', this paper emphasizes the importance of inclusive and deliberative site- and population - specific management of invasive species. It analyses three separate concepts commonly used in definitions of invasion: the origin, behaviour, and effects of particular species. It places these concepts in their broader social and ecological context, with particular attention to local perspectives on invasive species. We illustrate these concepts with Malagasy examples and data. The examples demonstrate that while invasions can have dramatic consequences, there can be multiple, often competing, interests as well as site - specific biophysical, environmental, and cultural considerations that need to be taken into account when designing policy and management interventions. We conclude with a number of lessons learned. RESUME FRANCAIS Contrairement à la plupart des autres îles, et en dépit du qualificatif 'invasif' rattaché depuis longtemps à certaines espèces qui s'y sont naturalisées, les réflexions autour de l'approche des espèces invasives à Madagascar demeurent récentes. L'opuntia (Opuntia spp.) figure certes parmi les plus anciens exemples d'espèces traités dans la littérature sur les invasions biologiques. Mais ce n'est vraiment qu'avec le retentissement médiatique autour de la détection en 2011 de la présence du crapaud masqué (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) et la recherche d'une parade appropriée que s'est affirmée la nécessité de traiter cette question des espèces invasives en tant que telle. Une posture nativiste et uniforme qui ignorerait la spécificité des contextes biophysiques et socio - économiques locaux, mais aussi la pluralité des formes d'invasion biologique et des défi- nitions qui s'y rattachent, ne saurait être privilégiée. L'article montre qu'il s'agit de situer les réflexions dans un contexte insulaire socio - économique dans lequel les espèces allogènes tiennent depuis longtemps une large place. Il défend en outre la nécessité d'envisager les espèces invasives non pas selon une forme de perception unique et autoritariste, mais selon une diversité de points de vue, conforme aux conflits d'intérêts qui se manifestent parfois, et mettant plutôt en avant le caractère exogène des espèces invasives, leurs effets (négatifs, mais aussi positifs) sur le milieu, ou leur mode de fonctionnement (disper- sion, dominance) dans des contextes spécifiques et locaux. Il convient en particulier d'observer qu'aux coûts générés par les invasions biologiques peuvent s'ajouter des bénéfices économiques, et que les impacts écologiques néfastes peuvent se combiner avec des incidences heureuses, y compris auprès d'espèces indigènes en situation critique. En outre, le point de vue des populations humaines, leur connaissance d'espèces invasives quotidiennement rencontrées, leur réticence à scin- der le vivant en espèces indigènes et allogène, mais aussi leur vision pragmatique, ne sauraient être mésestimés, et moins encore oubliés. Enfin, l'article invite à prendre du recul face aux effets rhétoriques liés aux discours conventionnels sur les inva- sions biologiques, à éviter les amalgames et les généralisations excessives, à tenir compte des contraintes environnementales mais aussi des aspirations socio - économiques des populations locales, et à prendre en compte la diversité des spécificités locales, qu'elles soient biophysiques ou sociales. En conclusion, il est sans doute heureux que Madagascar n'ait rejoint que très récemment la mouvance internationale des réflexions sur les espèces invasives : cela lui permet en effet d'être en mesure de disposer d'une position équilibrée, déjouant certains discours catastrophistes, et préférant une approche résolument contextualisée, à l'échelle nationale comme aux échelles régionales.

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This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of ASTER imagery to support the mapping of Pittosporum undulatum, an invasive woody species, in Pico da Vara Natural Reserve (S. Miguel Island, Archipelago of the Azores, Portugal). This assessment was done by applying K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Maximum Likelihood (MLC) pixel-based supervised classifications to 4 different geographic and remote sensing datasets constituted by the Visible, Near-Infrared (VNIR) and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) of the ASTER sensor and by digital cartography associated to orography (altitude and "distance to water streams") of which the spatial distribution of Pittosporum undulatum directly depends. Overall, most performed classifications showed a strong agreement and high accuracy. At targeted species level, the two higher classification accuracies were obtained when applying MLC and KNN to the VNIR bands coupled with auxiliary geographic information use. Results improved significantly by including ecology and occurrence information of species (altitude and distance to water streams) in the classification scheme. These results show that the use of ASTER sensor VNIR spectral bands, when coupled to relevant ancillary GIS data, can constitute an effective and low cost approach for the evaluation and continuous assessment of Pittosporum undulatum woodland propagation and distribution within Protected Areas of the Azores Islands.

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When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

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The last decade has seen spirited debates about how resource availability affect the intensity of competition. This paper examines the effect that a dominant introduced species, Carrichtera annua, has upon the winter annual community in the arid chenopod shrublands of South Australia. Manipulative field experiments were conducted to assess plant community response to changing below-ground resource levels and to the manipulation of the density of C. annua. Changes in the density of C. annua had little effect on the abundance of all other species in the guild. Nutrient addition produced an increase in the biomass of the most abundant native species, Crassula colorata. An analysis of the root distribution of the main species suggested that the areas of soil resource capture of C. annua and C. colorata are largely segregated. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition may be stronger than interspecific competition, controlling the species responses to increased resource availability. The results are consistent with a two-phase resource dynamics systems, with pulses of high resource availability triggering growth, followed by pulses of stress. Smaller plants were nutrient limited under natural field conditions, suggesting that stress experienced during long interpulse phases may override competitive effects after short pulse phases. The observed differences in root system structure will determine when plants of a different species are experiencing a pulse or an interpulse phase. We suggest that the limitations to plant recruitment and growth are the product of a complex interplay between the length and intensity of the pulse of resource availability, the duration and severity of the interpulse periods, and biological characters of the species.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

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The work conelete of a survey of the mvaewe plants which appeared during the first six months of seedling stage in foreet plantations of second and third rotation, in the Jari area, Brazil. The resulting list showed two types of invasives: (1) true weeds - those cosmopolitan species that are typical of disturbed habitats; and (2) pioneer species - those which were probably remnants from the original natural vegetation of the studied area.

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The aim of this study was to analyse the infection dynamics ofAngiostrongylus cantonensisin its possible intermediate hosts over two years in an urban area in the state of Rio de Janeiro where the presence ofA. cantonensis had been previously recorded in molluscs. Four of the seven mollusc species found in the study were exotic.Bradybaena similariswas the most abundant, followed byAchatina fulica, Streptaxissp., Subulina octona, Bulimulus tenuissimus, Sarasinula linguaeformisand Leptinaria unilamellata. Only A. fulicaand B. similariswere parasitised by A. cantonensis and both presented co-infection with other helminths. The prevalence of A. cantonensisin A. fulicawas more than 50% throughout the study. There was an inverse correlation between the population size ofA. fulicaand the prevalence of A. cantonensisand abundance of the latter was negatively related to rainfall. The overall prevalence of A. cantonensisin B. similariswas 24.6%. A. fulicawas the most important intermediary host of A. cantonensisin the studied area andB. similariswas secondary in importance for A. cantonensistransmission dynamics.

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We investigate the interface between trade and invasive species (IS) risk, focusing on the existing tariff escalation in agro-forestry product markets and its implication for IS risk. Tariff escalation in processed agro-forestry products exacerbates the risk of IS by biasing trade flows toward increased trade of primary commodity flows and against processed-product trade. We show that reducing tariff escalation by lowering the tariff on processed goods increases allocative efficiency and reduces the IS externality, a win-win situation. We also identify policy menus for trade reforms involving tariffs on both raw input and processed goods, leading to winwin situations.

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We analyze the linkage between protectionism and invasive species (IS) hazard in the context of two-way trade and multilateral trade integration, two major features of real-world agricultural trade. Multilateral integration includes the joint reduction of tariffs and trade costs among trading partners. Multilateral trade integration is more likely to increase damages from IS than predicted by unilateral trade opening under the classic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework because domestic production (the base susceptible to damages) is likely to increase with expanding export markets. A country integrating its trade with a partner characterized by relatively higher tariff and trade costs is also more likely to experience increased IS damages via expanded domestic production for the same reason. We illustrate our analytical results with a stylized model of the world wheat market.

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Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.

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Mediterranean endemic freshwater fish are among the most threatened biota in the world. Distinguishing the role of different extinction drivers and their potential interactions is crucial for achieving conservation goals. While some authors argue that invasive species are a main driver of native species declines, others see their proliferation as a co-occurring process to biodiversity loss driven by habitat degradation. It is difficult to discern between the two potential causes given that few invaded ecosystems are free from habitat degradation, and that both factors may interact in different ways. Here we analyze the relative importance of habitat degradation and invasive species in the decline of native fish assemblages in the Guadiana River basin (southwestern Iberian Peninsula) using an information theoretic approach to evaluate interaction pathways between invasive species and habitat degradation (structural equation modeling, SEM). We also tested the possible changes in the functional relationships between invasive and native species, measured as the per capita effect of invasive species, using ANCOVA. We found that the abundance of invasive species was the best single predictor of natives’ decline and had the highest Akaike weight among the set of predictor variables examined. Habitat degradation neither played an active role nor influenced the per capita effect of invasive species on natives. Our analyses indicated that downstream reaches and areas close to reservoirs had the most invaded fish assemblages, independently of their habitat degradation status. The proliferation of invasive species poses a strong threat to the persistence of native assemblages in highly fluctuating environments. Therefore, conservation efforts to reduce native freshwater fish diversity loss in Mediterranean rivers should focus on mitigating the effect of invasive species and preventing future invasions