Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Barrow Island's biosecurity : catching the unknown invader

When industry meets a conservation area, animals or plants from outside may hitch a lift and potentially wreak havoc. How can you be sure of catching the intruders – or at least 80% sure? A government directive instructed Frith Jarrad, Peter Whittle, Susan Barrett and Kerrie Mengersen to come up with a statistically measurable scheme.

Respuesta en rendimiento, proteína y calibre de la cebada cervecera a la fertilización nitrogenada y a la aplicación de fungicida en Barrow, provincia de Buenos Aires

Resumen: El uso correcto de las tecnologías de insumos durante el cultivo de cebada cervecera es fundamental por la estricta demanda de calidad por parte de la industria. El objetivo de este ensayo fue evaluar el rendimiento y calidad de la cebada cervecera, variedad Andreia, ante distintas dosis de fertilizantes y fungicidas en los diferentes estadios del cultivo. Se realizó un diseño en bloques completos distribuidos al azar, con 4 repeticiones y 5 tratamientos: 1-Testigo, 2- 80 kg N ha -1 en presiembra, 3- 80 kg N ha -1 en presiembra y 20 kg N ha -1 en hoja bandera, 4- 80 kg N ha -1 en presiembra y 20 kg N ha -1 en hoja bandera junto con aplicación de fungicida, 5- 80 kg N ha -1 en presiembra, mas fungicida en principio de encañazón y 20 kg N ha -1 junto con la segunda aplicación del fungicida. Con respecto a los resultados obtenidos, en ninguna de las variables analizadas se encontraron diferencias significativas (p-valor<0,10) entre tratamientos. En el ensayo, el rendimiento promedio obtenido fue de 6089 kg ha -1. En cuanto a la calidad, el promedio del ensayo para la variable proteína fue del 11,6% y 81,8% para calibre. El motivo de estos resultados responden a las condiciones en que se desarrolló el cultivo, en donde a pesar del año (campaña 2013/2014) muy seco en relación al promedio histórico, las lluvias en el cultivo fueron suficientes, que, sumado a la buena disponibilidad de nutrientes a la siembra y a la nula incidencia de enfermedades foliares, reflejó los buenos rindes en general del ensayo, acompañado por los valores óptimos proteicos, pero no así en lo relacionado con el calibre, el cual no llegó a cumplir con los estándares requeridos para su comercialización.

Origin and Availability of Large Cavities for Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), a Species at Risk Inhabiting the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

Large secondary-nesting birds such as ducks rely on appropriate cavities for breeding. The main objective of this study was to assess the availability of large cavities and the potential of a managed boreal coniferous landscape to provide nesting trees within the breeding area of the eastern population of Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), a cavity-nesting species at risk in Canada. Woodpecker surveys were conducted in both conifer and mixed-wood landscapes, and cavities were sought in line transects distributed in unharvested and linear remnant stands of balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana) as well as in cutblocks. No Pileated Woodpeckers (Dryocopus pileatus) were detected in the breeding area of Barrow’s Goldeneye, but the species was present in the nearby lowland area in which trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) is abundant. Only 10 trees (0.2% of those sampled) supported cavities considered suitable for Barrow’s Goldeneye in terms of dimensions and canopy openness. Most of the suitable cavities found during this study were nonexcavated apical (chimney) cavities in relatively short snags that showed advanced states of decay. A diameter-at-breast-height threshold was determined for each tree species, after which the probability of cavity occurrence was enhanced in terms of potential cavity trees for Barrow’s Goldeneye. Remnant linear forest sites had lower potential tree densities than did their unharvested equivalents. Large cavities were thus a rare component in this boreal landscape, suggesting that they may be a limiting factor for this population at risk. Current even-aged forest management that mainly relies on clear-cut practices is likely to further reduce the potential of this landscape to provide trees with suitable cavities.

Dating the dead: a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology of burial Within an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire

This paper outlines the results of a programme of radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling relating to an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire. In total, 43 dates were obtained, enabling the first high-resolution independent chronology (relating to both burial and architectural events) to be constructed for a site of this kind. The results suggest that the three main turf-mound barrows were probably constructed and used successively rather than simultaneously, that the shift from inhumation to cremation seen on the site was not a straightforward progression, and that the four main ‘types’ of cremation burial in evidence were used throughout the life of the site. Overall, variability in terms of burial practice appears to have been a key feature of the site. The paper also considers the light that the fine-grained chronology developed can shed on recent much wider discussions of memory and time within Early Bronze Age barrows

Just add water and salt: the optimisation of petrogenic hydrocarbon biodegradation in soils from semi-arid Barrow Island, Western Australia

We investigated the potential of soil moisture and nutrient amendments to enhance the biodegradation of oil in the soils from an ecologically unique semi-arid island. This was achieved using a series of controlled laboratory incubations where moisture or nutrient levels were experimentally manipulated. Respired CO2 increased sharply with moisture amendment reflecting the severe moisture limitation of these porous and semi-arid soils. The greatest levels of CO2 respiration were generally obtained with a soil pore water saturation of 50–70%. Biodegradation in these nutrient poor soils was also promoted by the moderate addition of a nitrogen fertiliser. Increased biodegradation was greater at the lowest amendment rate (100 mg N kg−1 soil) than the higher levels (500 or 1,000 mg N kg−1 soil), suggesting the higher application rates may introduce N toxicity. Addition of phosphorous alone had little effect, but a combined 500 mg N and 200 mg P kg−1 soil amendment led to a synergistic increase in CO2 respiration (3.0×), suggesting P can limit the biodegradation of hydrocarbons following exogenous N amendment.