Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

Excess capital and bank behavior : evidence from Indonesia

The Indonesian banking sector has been restructured since Asian financial crisis and restored to soundness. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) returned to a sound level; however, the average excess capital has become too high, while credit disbursement has remained low. This paper investigates the determinants of excess capital among Indonesian banks and its effects on credit growth during the 2000s. The results indicate that the determinants of excess capital vary widely depending on bank type. Return on equity (ROE) affects excess capital negatively among domestic banks, and the effect of non-performing loans is mixed, differing for various bank types. Excess capital affects credit growth positively, except among foreign banks.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

Monetary policy and risk taking. Bruegel Working Paper 2010/00, February 2010

We assess, through VAR evidence, the effects of monetary policy on banks’ risk exposure and find the presence of a risk-taking channel. A model combining fragile banks prone to risk mis-incentives and credit constrained firms, whose collateral fluctuations generate a balance sheet channel, is used to rationalize the evidence. A monetary expansion increases bank leverage. With two consequences: on the one side this exacerbates risk exposure; on the other, the risk spiral depresses output, therefore dampening the conventional amplification effect of the financial accelerator. Keywords: monetary policy, bank behavior, leverage, financial accelerator.

Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

The cyclical behavior of bank capital buffers in an emerging economy: size do matters

Using a panel of Colombian banks and quarterly data between 1996:1 and 2010:3, we study the relationship between short-run adjustemnts in bank capital buffers and the business cycle. We follow a partial adjustment framework and control for several variables that have been identified as important determinants of bank capital buffers in previous studies, and find that bank capital buffers vary over the business cycle. We are able to identify a negative co-movement of capital buffers and and the business cycle. However, we also find that capital buffers of small and large banks behave asymmetrically during the business cycle. While the former appear to be constant over time, once the appropriate set of control variables is used, the latter present a countercyclical behavior. Our results suggest the possible need of the implementation of regulatory policy measures in developing countries

A Novel Behavior Observed in Humpback Whales on Wintering Grounds at Abrolhos Bank (Brazil)

We describe a novel behavior, termed “tail-up,” observed in humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) on wintering grounds on Abrolhos Bank, Brazil. The behavior involves the whale positioned vertically in the water column with its tail in the air. Wirh the exception of calves, tail-up was observed in all social classes, and its frequency increased through the end of the season. Tail-ups were recorded in 144 (5.8%) of 2,465 groups of whales observed from a shore station, and in 297 (14.9%) of 1,996 groups observed from vessel surveys; biases in each method suggest that the true frequency lies between these sources. One hundred and fifty-two hours of continuous sampling showed that the duration of tail-up events lasted from a few seconds to 12 min and was longest in groups comprised of a single adult. The maximum duration of a recorded period that consistently included tail-up was 10 h; however, some individuals were observed to engage in the behavior at night and for four consecutive days. Tail-up movement speed did not vary by social class; however, it varied according to wind direction and speed. The characteristics of tail-up that we observed showed that it differed from the descriptions of similar behaviors in other cetacean species. The function of tail-up is unknown, but we suggest that it may be a multifunctional behavior.

Building bank brands:how leadership behavior influences employee commitment

Front line employees are critical to service brand success, as their performance brings brand promises to life. Banking employees, like others, must remain committed to their employers, to live the brand, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and customer frustration. Employees' commitment influences their brand adoption and brand-supporting behavior during service encounters. Effective leadership fosters employee commitment and brand supporting behaviors. This study examines the nature of employee commitment in banking, distinguishing between affective, continuance and normative commitment. The study explores bank leaders, examining whether initiating structure leader behavior or considerate leader behavior is most effective in encouraging employee commitment. Data from a sample of 438 employees in a leading Irish bank reveals the optimal leadership style for employee commitment. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

By the day nurses bank up in a casual pool!

We suspect that the array of silly names used to refer to temporary staff worldwide may be indicative of the extent to which these nurses have been relegated to, and we would argue, remain in, a type of underclass – relatively unsupported by employers in terms of professional practice and ipso facto excluded from contributing professionally to team work, practice development, clinical governance and evidence based practice. This may be acceptable to some but in a climate of risk averseness and in the interests of strategic planning we would suggest it is an accident waiting to happen. The recent UK Royal College of Nursing (RCN) (Ball & Pike, 2006) survey of bank and agency nurses brings a welcome focus on a group of nurses that make a significant contribution to the smooth running of health services in many countries.

Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Noise levels and sources in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary and the St. Lawrence River Estuary

Although ambient (background) noise in the ocean is a topic that has been widely studied since pre-World War II, the effects of noise on marine organisms has only been a focus of concern for the last 25 years. The main point of concern has been the potential of noise to affect the health and behavior of marine mammals. The Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) is a site where the degradation of habitat due to increasing noise levels is a concern because it is a feeding ground and summer haven for numerous species of marine mammals. Ambient noise in the ocean is defined as “the part of the total noise background observed with an omnidirectional hydrophone.” It is an inherent characteristic of the medium having no specific point source. Ambient noise is comprised of a number of components that contribute to the “noise level” in varying degrees depending on where the noise is being measured. This report describes the current understanding of ambient noise and existing levels in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

Feeding Ecology of Humpback Whales in Continental Shelf Waters near Cordell Bank, California

Daytime feeding behavior of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Gulf of the Farallones, California, and adjacent waters was observed during autumn of 1988 to 1990. Bodega Canyon, Cordell Bank, and the Farallon Islands were the primary sites of feeding activity. Fecal samples of whales and zooplankton tows contained euphausiids exclusively, dominated by Thysanoessa spinifera (79%), with lesser amounts of Euphausia pacifica (14%), Nyctiphanes simplex (4%), and Nematoscelis difficilis (3%). In 1988 and 1990, whales also were infrequently observed feeding on small schooling fish, presumably Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.). Feeding was the most common behavior observed (52%), and less frequently traveling (23%), milling (21 %), and resting (4%). Whales used different methods to consume euphausiid prey at the surface (0-10 m), in shallow water (11-60 m), and deep water (61-140 m). Humpback whales fed at the surface 56% of time in 1988 and 32% of time in 1990, using primarily lateral lunges to capture swarms of euphausiids. In 1989, no surface feeding was observed; however, deep, long-duration dives were followed by extended surface intervals with many respirations. These 1989 observations coincided with increased prey depth as indicated by depth sounder records of diving whales and prey scattering layers. In 1989, increased prey depth and associated feeding behaviors were strongly associated with unusually high surface temperatures, calm seas, and changes in water circulation. Environmental conditions in 1989 triggered the most intense and wide-spread occurrence of red tide in this region since 1980. Red tide samples collected throughout this period contained Alexandrium (=Gonyaulax) catenella and Noctiluca scintillans. Surface feeding was observed only in 1988 and 1990, when surface prey were available and red tides were very limited in extent, duration, and intensity. Annual variations in humpback whale feeding behavior were related to prey availability which is affected by corresponding environmental conditions. (PDF contains 94 pages)

Day and night abundance, distribution, and activity patterns of demersal fishes on Heceta Bank, Oregon

Most shallow-dwelling tropical marine fishes exhibit different activity patterns during the day and night but show similar transition behavior among habitat sites despite the dissimilar assemblages of the species. However, changes in species abundance, distribution, and activity patterns have only rarely been examined in temperate deepwater habitats during the day and night, where day-to-night differences in light intensity are extremely slight. Direct-observation surveys were conducted over several depths and habitat types on Heceta Bank, the largest rocky bank off the Oregon coast. Day and night fish community composition, relative density, and activity levels were compared by using videotape footage from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) operated along paired transects. Habitat-specific abundance and activity were determined for 31 taxa or groups. General patterns observed were similar to shallow temperate day and night studies, with an overall increase in the abundance and activity of fishes during the day than at night, particularly in shallower cobble, boulder, and rock ridge habitats. Smaller schooling rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) were more abundant and active in day than in night transects, and sharpchin (S. zacentrus) and harlequin (S. variegatus) rockfish were significantly more abundant in night transects. Most taxa, however, did not exhibit distinct diurnal or nocturnal activity patterns. Rosethorn rockfish (S. helvomaculatus) and hagfishes (Eptatretus spp.) showed the clearest diurnal and nocturnal activity patterns, respectively. Because day and night distributions and activity patterns in demersal fishes are likely to influence both catchability and observability in bottom trawl and direct-count in situ surveys, the patterns observed in the current study should be considered for survey design and interpretation.

Fertility differentials of Jewish women living in Israel and the West Bank

Israël est l’un des pays développés les plus féconds dans le monde et maintient un taux de fécondité stable depuis 1995. Il a échappé à la chute spectaculaire de la fécondité qui a été observée dans la plupart des pays occidentaux. Le taux de fécondité était de 2,96 enfants par femme en 2009 (Statistical Abstract of Israel, 2010, tableau 3.14). Le maintien d’une si forte fécondité pourrait être dû à l’immigration et à la “guerre démographique” qui sévit entre les différentes communautés vivant dans le pays (Sardon, 2006). Toutefois, on observe une différence significative entre les niveaux de fécondité des juifs d’Israël et de Cisjordanie depuis plusieurs années. Les études qui portent sur la fécondité en Israël sont faites au niveau national, ce qui ne fournit aucune explication sur cette différence. Pour ces raisons, l’étude de la fécondité en Israël mérite une attention particulière. Ce projet vise à identifier les différents facteurs qui ont une incidence sur la fécondité des femmes juives vivant en Israël et en Cisjordanie. Il contribuera à une meilleure compréhension des comportements liés à la fécondité de la population juive de la Cisjordanie et peut fournir des indices sur les mécanismes complexes qui régissent les relations entre Juifs et Arabes dans les territoires occupés. Grâce aux données recueillies dans l’Enquête sociale générale de 2004 d’Israël,des analyses descriptives et explicatives ont été produites. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs qui ont un impact sur la fécondité dans chaque région ont été déterminés et par la suite, une analyse de l’importance de ces facteur sur la fécondité a été produite. Le nombre d’enfants nés de femmes âgées de 20 à 55 ans constitue la variable d’intérêt et les variables explicatives retenues sont les suivantes: religiosité, éducation, revenu familial mensuel, statut d’emploi, pays d’origine, âge et état matrimonial. Cette étude a montré que les femmes juives qui résident en Cisjordanie ont un nombre prévu d’enfants de 13% supérieur à celui des femmes juives qui résident en Israël lorsque l’on contrôle toutes les variables. Il est notamment montré que la religion joue un rôle important dans l’explication de la forte fécondité des femmes juives dans les deux régions, mais son impact est plus important en Israël. L’éducation joue également un rôle important dans la réduction du nombre prévu d’enfants, en particulier en Cisjordanie. Tous ces facteurs contribuent à expliquer les différents niveaux de fécondité dans les deux régions, mais l’étude montre que ces facteurs ne permettent pas une explication exhaustive de la forte fécondité en Israël et en Cisjordanie. D’autres forces qui ne sont pas mesurables doivent avoir une incidence sur la fécondité telles que le nationalisme ou la laïcisation, par exemple.

School management and sexual behavior of teenagers

This paper asks whether school based management may help reducing risky sexual behavior of teenagers. For this purpose we use student level data from Bogot´a to identify students from Concession School (CS), who are enrolled in public education system with a more school management autonomy at school level, and to compare them with those students at the traditional public education system. We use propensity score matching methods to have a comparable sample between pupils at CS and traditional schools. Our results show that on average the behavior of students from CS do not have a sexual behavior that differs from those in traditional public schools except for boys in CS who have a lower probability of being sexual active. However, there are important differences when heterogeneity is considered. For example we find that CS where girls per boys ratio is higher have lower teenage pregnancy rates than public schools with also high girls per boys ratios. We also find that teachers’ human capital, teacher-pupil ratio or whether school offers sexual education are also related to statistically significant differences between CS and traditional public schools.