Analysis and optimization of trajectories for Ballistic Missiles Interception

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are capable of placing a nuclear warhead at more than 5,000 km away from its launching base. With the lethal power of a nuclear warhead a whole city could be wiped out by a single weapon causing millions of deaths. This means that the threat posed to any country from a single ICBM captured by a terrorist group or launched by a 'rogue' state is huge. This threat is increasing as more countries are achieving nuclear and advanced launcher capabilities. In order to suppress or at least reduce this threat the United States created the National Missile Defense System which involved, among other systems, the development of long-range interceptors whose aim is to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase. The Ballistic Missile Defense is a high-profile topic that has been the focus of political controversy lately when the U.S. decided to expand the Ballistic Missile system to Europe, with the opposition of Russia. However the technical characteristics of this system are mostly unknown by the general public. The Interception of an ICBM using a long range Interceptor Missile as intended within the Ground-Based Missile Defense System by the American National Missile Defense (NMD) implies a series of problems of incredible complexity: - The incoming missile has to be detected almost immediately after launch. - The incoming missile has to be tracked along its trajectory with a great accuracy. - The Interceptor Missile has to implement a fast and accurate guidance algorithm in order to reach the incoming missile as soon as possible. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle deployed by the interceptor boost vehicle has to be able to detect the reentry vehicle once it has been deployed by ICBM, when it offers a very low infrared signature, in order to perform a final rendezvous manoeuvre. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to discriminate the reentry vehicle from the surrounding debris and decoys. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to implement an accurate guidance algorithm in order to perform a kinetic interception (direct collision) of the reentry vehicle, at relative speeds of more than 10 km/s. All these problems are being dealt simultaneously by the Ground-Based Missile Defense System that is developing very complex and expensive sensors, communications and control centers and long-range interceptors (Ground-Based Interceptor Missile) including a Kinetic Kill Vehicle. Among all the technical challenges involved in this interception scenario, this thesis focuses on the algorithms required for the guidance of the Interceptor Missile and the Kinetic Kill Vehicle in order to perform the direct collision with the ICBM. The involved guidance algorithms are deeply analysed in this thesis in part III where conventional guidance strategies are reviewed and optimal guidance algorithms are developed for this interception problem. The generation of a realistic simulation of the interception scenario between an ICBM and a Ground Based Interceptor designed to destroy it was considered as necessary in order to be able to compare different guidance strategies with meaningful results. As a consequence, a highly representative simulator for an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle has been implemented, as detailed in part II, and the generation of these simulators has also become one of the purposes of this thesis. In summary, the main purposes of this thesis are: - To develop a highly representative simulator of an interception scenario between an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle launched from a Ground Based Interceptor. -To analyse the main existing guidance algorithms both for the ascent phase and the terminal phase of the missiles. Novel conclusions of these analyses are obtained. - To develop original optimal guidance algorithms for the interception problem. - To compare the results obtained using the different guidance strategies, assess the behaviour of the optimal guidance algorithms, and analyse the feasibility of the Ballistic Missile Defense system in terms of guidance (part IV). As a secondary objective, a general overview of the state of the art in terms of ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missile defence is provided (part I).

Defense against ballistic missiles : an assessment of technologies and policy implicaions.

Mode of access: Internet.

Generalized State Estimation and Model Predictive Guidance for Spiraling and Ballistic Targets

An extended Kalman filter based generalized state estimation approach is presented in this paper for accurately estimating the states of incoming high-speed targets such as ballistic missiles. A key advantage of this nine-state problem formulation is that it is very much generic and can capture spiraling as well as pure ballistic motion of targets without any change of the target model and the tuning parameters. A new nonlinear model predictive zero-effort-miss based guidance algorithm is also presented in this paper, in which both the zero-effort-miss as well as the time-to-go are predicted more accurately by first propagating the nonlinear target model (with estimated states) and zero-effort interceptor model simultaneously. This information is then used for computing the necessary lateral acceleration. Extensive six-degrees-of-freedom simulation experiments, which include noisy seeker measurements, a nonlinear dynamic inversion based autopilot for the interceptor along with appropriate actuator and sensor models and magnitude and rate saturation limits for the fin deflections, show that near-zero miss distance (i.e., hit-to-kill level performance) can be obtained when these two new techniques are applied together. Comparison studies with an augmented proportional navigation based guidance shows that the proposed model predictive guidance leads to a substantial amount of conservation in the control energy as well.

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Includes index.

Suboptimal Midcourse Guidance of Interceptors for High-Speed Targets with Alignment Angle Constraint

Using the recently developed computationally efficient model predictive static programming and a closely related model predictive spread control concept, two nonlinear suboptimal midcourse guidance laws are presented in this paper for interceptors engaging against incoming high-speed ballistic missiles. The guidance laws are primarily based on nonlinear optimal control theory, and hence imbed effective trajectory optimization concepts into the guidance laws. Apart from being energy efficient by minimizing the control usage throughout the trajectory (minimum control usage leads to minimum turning, and hence leads to minimum induced drag), both of these laws enforce desired alignment constraints in both elevation and azimuth in a hard-constraint sense. This good alignment during midcourse is expected to enhance the effectiveness of the terminal guidance substantially. Both point mass as well as six-degree-of-freedom simulation results (with a realistic inner-loop autopilot based on dynamic inversion) are presented in this paper, which clearly shows the effectiveness of the proposed guidance laws. It has also been observed that, even with different perturbations of missile parameters, the performance of guidance is satisfactory. A comparison study, with the vector explicit guidance scheme proposed earlier in the literature, also shows that the newly proposed model-predictive-static-programming-based and model-predictive-spread-control-based guidance schemes lead to lesser lateral acceleration demand and lesser velocity loss during engagement.

Biased PN based impact angle constrained guidance using a nonlinear engagement model

Impact angle constrained guidance laws are important in many applications such as guidance of torpedoes, anti-ballistic missiles and reentry vehicles. In this paper, we design a guidance law which is capable of achieving a wide range of impact angles. Biased proportional navigation guidance uses a bias term in addition to the basic PN command to satisfy additional constraints. Angle constrained BPNG (ACBPNG) uses small angle approximations to derive the bias term for impact angle requirement. We design a modified ACBPNG (MACBPNG) where the required bias term is derived in a closed form considering non-linear equations of motion. Simulations are carried out for a wide range of impact angle requirements. We also analyze capturability from different initial positions and also the launch angles possible at each initial position. The performance of the proposed law is compared with an existing law.

People's war under modern conditions : an investigation into Chinese defence strategy, 1977-2049

This thesis is an investigation of the relevance of ‘people's war’ to contemporary Chinese defence policy. This loose concept has been eroded by 'modernity’, but a guerilla-based defence remains the essential theme. Prior to China's acquisition of nuclear weapons, people's war was the sole element of the state's deterrent policy, aiming to swamp an invader with China's numerical strength. In the 1980s and beyond people's war finds effectiveness through a combination of materiel of middle range technology and the traditional usage of massive manpower. People's war under modern conditions remains essentially defensive, but now incorporates 'active defence’ with accent on greater mobility. However, the central thesis of this work relates to how the traditional strategy may influence nuclear doctrine. This thesis proposes that China could abandon long-range ballistic missiles and adopt a new concept in nuclear strategy: that of, Guerilla Nuclear Warfare. Trained in guerilla tactics and equipped with battlefield nuclear weapons, this would represent the logical extension of China's people's war strategy to the new nuclear conditions associated with superpower research into space-based ballistic missile defences and which, in full deployment, could nullify a Chinese nuclear deterrent based only on 'mid-tech' delivery systems. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare, as a strategy, would involve the irregular use of locally held and controlled tactical nuclear weapons, but it would also be a method of circumventing the proposed Soviet missile defence shield by not challenging it. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare does not exist in the late 1980s, but evidence exists to suggest its development. It cannot yet be proven as the new direction but China's strategic circumstances add weight to available indications: unless the Strategic Defence programs of the established superpowers are arrested then it appears the sole option available to the Chinese for the maintenance of a nuclear deterrent in the early part of the 21st Century.

Modelo simplificado de pocos grados de libertad, para simular el impacto de una roca sobre una viga de hormigón armado

Durante mucho tiempo se han estudiado los efectos producidos por el impacto de objetos sobre estructuras, inicialmente la gran mayoría de los estudios se centraban en el impacto de proyectiles de tipo balístico dado el interés que se tenía en el diseño de estructuras capaces de soportar el impacto de dichos proyectiles. Dada la falta de capacidad de cálculo para resolver el problema que tuviera en cuenta el comportamiento global de la estructura junto con el comportamiento local, los estudios se centraban básicamente en la zona de impacto. El momento en el cual se pueden realizar cálculos que requieren de múltiples iteraciones para llegar a una solución satisfactoria al complejo problema planteado no se produce hasta la llegada de los modernos ordenadores. En el presente estudio se establece un sistema de múltiples grados de libertad (SMDF, System of Multiple Degrees of Freedom), que permite el estudio del impacto de una roca sobre una viga de hormigón armado teniendo en cuenta factores que afectan al ámbito local y global de la estructura analizada. El sistema se resuelve a través de un método de resolución implícita como es el método de Newmark, el cual nos permite, sin tener que acceder a un programa de elementos finitos, obtener una solución suficientemente aproximada al problema planteado con un coste computacional relativamente bajo. En el documento se comprueba el modelo propuesto con los resultados existentes de unos ensayos a escala real, y se plantean diversas hipótesis analizando las diferentes respuestas del sistema a la variación de las condiciones de partida. The effects produced by the impact of objects on structures have been studied for a long time. Initially, the vast majority of studies focused on the impact of ballistic missiles, due to the particular interest in the design of these structures being capable to withstand the impact such projectiles. Due to the lack of calculation capacity to solve the problem of taking into account the global behavior of the structure together with the local behavior, the studies focused mainly on the impact zone. The moment in which calculations that required multiple iterations could be performed with satisfactory solutions for the complex problem presented did not arrive until the introduction of modern computers. The present study establishes a System of Multiple Degrees of Freedom, which allows the study of the impact of a rock on a reinforced concrete beam, taking into account factors that affect the local and global behavior of the structure analyzed. The system is solved using an implicit solution method as is the Newmark method, which allows us, without using a finite element program, to obtain a sufficiently approximate solution to the problem with a relatively low computational cost. This paper tests the proposed model with existing results obtained in large-scale tests, and analyses the response of the system to various changing scenarios to the starting conditions.

The current state, problems and future of Germany's air and missile defence. OSW Commentary No. 105, 2013-04-10

From German point of view, air and missile defence systems are of little relevance for the protection of Germany’s territory. However, they are seen as important for conducting ‘out of area’ operations, providing military assistance to allies, and for Germany’s political and military- technical position within NATO. The Bundeswehr has been modernising its air and missile defence systems for several years. The modernisation of very short-range and short-range systems is slightly behind schedule. Plans to modernise the medium-range air and missile defence have been encountering problems since the United States decided to refrain from buying the jointly developed MEADS system. Therefore Germany is currently considering using the results of the MEADS program in the development of its own medium-range air and missile defence system, possibly in co-operation with France and Italy. Such a system would ensure protection against short-range ballistic missiles (up to 1000 km) and might become part of NATO’s ballistic missile defence, replacing the Patriot batteries which Germany is currently operating. Furthermore, Germany could expand its involvement in NATO’s ballistic missile defence in the future by buying or developing system to intercept medium- and intermediate- range ballistic missiles (up to 3000 km and 5500 km). The final decision on this matter has not yet been taken, and will be left for the successive governments of Germany to resolve. It will depend on a number of political, military and financial factors.

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