Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji

For Fiji, which has been suffering persistent deficits since independence, determining the relationships between inflation, budget deficits, money supply, output, and import prices is essential. We find that inflation, deficits and money supply are cointegrated when inflation is the endogenous variable, and the long-run elasticities confirm that money supply and deficits induce inflation. While there is a short-run, unidirectional causality running from money supply to inflation and a bi-directional causality between money supply and budget deficits, in the long run both money supply and deficits ?Granger-cause? inflation.

USSR : sharply higher budget deficits threaten perestroyka : a research paper.

"SOV 88-10043U, September 1988."

The battle over deficits : the struggle to maintain Canada's social welfare state : a thesis /

Abstract This thesis seeks to answer a number of questions concerning the deficit and debt in Canada. It focuses pri.arily on the federal level of government but with SOBe discussion of provincial governaent policy as well. In ~997, Canada's federal debt caae close ro six hundred billion dollars - $594 billion or 74.4 % of Gross Do.estic Product (GDP) to be exact. The purpose of this theses is threefold: To find out why Canada accu.ulated such a debt, to discover if there is a so-called debt crisis; and to discover if it is possible to preserve Canada's national welfare state given the financial restraints that have been adopted by both federal and provincial governments. Politicians are torn between economist' two contrasting views regarding deficits: Neo-Keynesian and neo-conservative. The neoKeynesian school focuses al1llOst exclusively on the short term stability of the economy and tends to dismiss concerns regarding the level of debt. Neo conservatives focus almost exclusively on the perceived costs of growth in the national debt and are willing to forego any stabilization benefits to ensure that the debt is controlled. These polar view do have one thing in coa.on; both confix-. that deficits influence govermaent policies. Both of these econoBic theories will have far-reaching influences on the federal gover1lJlJent's decision-making process. These economic theories will be discussed throughout this thesis.

Getting the most out of every tax dollar : government management and budget 1992 : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, February 6, 1992.

Shipping list no.: 93-0637-P.

Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 : report of the Committee on the Budget, House of Representatives to accompany H.R. 4241, a bill to provide for reconciliation pursuant to section 201(a) of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2006 together with minority, additional and dissenting views.

"November 7, 2005."

The deficit and the economy : an update of long-term simulations : report to the Chairman, Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate, and the Chairman, Committee on the Budget, House of Representatives /

"B-259450"--P. 1.

Budget reconciliation : hearings before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate, Ninety-ninth Congress, first session, September 11, 12 and 13, 1985.

Item 1038-A, 1038-B (microfiche).

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Government revenue and government expenditure nexus : evidence from developing countries

The relationship between government revenue and government expenditure has attracted a lot of interest given its policy relevance, particularly with respect to budget deficits. The goal of this paper is to investigate evidence for causality between government revenue and government expenditure within a multivariate framework by modelling them together with gross domestic product for 12 developing countries. Our application of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test for Granger causality reveals support for the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Mauritius, El Salvador, Haiti, Chile and Venezuela. For Haiti, there is evidence for the spend-and-tax hypothesis, while for Peru, South Africa, Guatemala, Uruguay and Ecuador there is evidence of neutrality.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue and expenditure : the case of the Fiji Islands

Purpose – Understanding the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is important from a policy point of view, especially for a country like Fiji, which is suffering from persistent budget deficits. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and expenditure for Fiji.

Design/methodology/approach – The Johansen test for cointegration and Granger causality test are used to conduct the empirical analysis.

Findings – The key findings are that: government revenue and government expenditure in both the aggregate and disaggregate sense are cointegrated; in the short-run government expenditure Granger causes government revenue in an aggregate sense, departmental expenditure Granger causes aggregate revenue, and there is bidirectional causality running between government expenditure and customs duties; and in the long-run there is evidence of fiscal synchronization, implying that expenditure decisions are not made in isolation from revenue decisions.

Research limitations/implications – This fiscal synchronization has not been able curb the current account deficit in Fiji. Moreover, the confirmation of the spend-tax attitude of the government does not bode well for the level of investments and skilled human capital in Fiji as this may perpetuate tax increases in the future. Given that the Fiji Government is currently trying to rein in the escalating level of fiscal deficit, it is an opportune time for them to engage in extensive expenditure reforms.

Originality/value – The findings of this paper should allow policy makers to make informed decisions. Furthermore, the paper is different from others because apart from examining the revenue and expenditure in an aggregate sense, it also considers the different components of revenue and expenditure.

Fiscal stringency and fiscal sustainability : panel evidence from the American state and local governments

Most state (and local) governments in the U.S. operate under formal fiscal rules which limit their ability to run budget deficits and resort to debt financing. A priori, one would expect to find evidence in favor of an intertemporally balanced budget, or fiscal sustainability, for these states, especially those characterized by a relatively high degree of fiscal stringency. We test this hypothesis for a panel of 47 state–local government units (1961–2006) using four budget balance definitions and several subsamples defined based on regional classifications, or presence of certain balanced budget requirements (BBRs). Our results, obtained from panel estimation techniques that allow for general forms of serial and cross-sectional dependence, suggest that a sufficient condition for “strong” sustainability is consistently satisfied for the full sample and all subsamples in relation to balances that include special funds and/or federal grants. However, we find evidence consistent with the “weak” version of sustainability for the full sample and some regional subsamples (particularly Far West dominated by California) in at least one of the two balances that exclude these items. Finally, the BBRs seem to matter only in relation to the sustainability of the more narrowly defined balances. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of fiscal rules and federal grant policies.

Incompatibilidade distributiva e desenvolvimento auto-sustentado

Effective macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth will only be achieved in Brazil when the country settles the distributive inconsistency that arose in the 1970s. Since then the state and the nation started to incur respectively in high domestic and foreign debt. Wages grew at much slower rate than productivity, and income concentrated in the hands of business entrepreneurs and particularly of rentiers. Sheer populist practices, or disguised combination of neo-liberal and neopopulist policies were unable to address the problem. Budget deficits and high inflation, or exchange rate overvaluation and financial crises were the typical outcome. To settle distributive inconsistency by compensating in the short term workers for their income losses is not realistic. Only a consistent growth strategy and a credible commitment to share future growth benefits, combined with active social policies oriented to the poor, will do the job.

Europe’s financial crisis: the Euro’s flawed design and the consequences of lack of a government banker

This paper argues the euro zone requires a government banker that manages the bond market and helps finance country budget deficits. The euro solved Europe’s problem of exchange rate speculation by creating a unified currency managed by a single central bank, but in doing so it replaced the exchange rate speculation problem with bond market speculation. Remedying this requires a central bank that acts as government banker and maintains bond interest rates at sustainable levels. Because the euro is a monetary union, this must be done in a way that both avoids favoring individual countries and avoids creating incentives for irresponsible country fiscal policy that leads to “bail-outs”. The paper argues this can be accomplished via a European Public Finance Authority (EPFA) that issues public debt which the European Central Bank (ECB) is allowed to trade. The debate over the euro’s financial architecture has significant political implications. The current neoliberal inspired architecture, which imposes a complete separation between the central bank and public finances, puts governments under continuous financial pressures. That will make it difficult to maintain the European social democratic welfare state. This gives a political reason for reforming the euro and creating an EPFA that supplements the economic case for reform.