四川大岩子铂族元素低温成矿特征：BSE微区分析证据

通过电子探针背反射图像（BSE）和能谱（ES）分析，结合岩矿鉴定和前人研究资料，确定大岩子PGE矿床与矿化有关的主要是一套低温矿物组合。与成矿特征相似的New Rambler Mine矿床进行了对比，并综合前人有关PGE低温成矿的论述和实验研究，认为大岩子PGE矿床具有明显的低温成矿特征，其成矿温度低于300℃，经历了富S体系溶液下的富集成矿和紧随其后的富Cl体系溶液下活化再富集成矿两个过程，后期矿化可能相当于或者强于前期矿化.

TheShifting Sands of Uncertainty: Risk Construction and BSE/vCJD

It is more than a decade since scientists in the UK put forward evidence of a link between the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) in humans, and a diminishing epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or BSE, in cattle. In the wake of this anniversary, the paper revisits two scientific narratives of risk, forged at different points along the developmental pathway of BSE science, including a series of advisory reports provided to the UK government between 1989 and 1994, and a symposium held in 2001 to assess the impact of the Phillips Inquiry. While the primary pathology of BSE became apparent relatively early on, uncertainties remain about the origins of BSE and its human variant, vCJD. The paper examines the handling of this sensitivity, and its communication, within these key documents, noting changes in patterns of uncertainty construction over time.

Consumer welfare and the loss induced by withholding information: The case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding it formation about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost,function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.