全球气候变化条件下新疆天山云杉林生长的分析与模拟

气候变化对人类赖以生存的陆地生态系统尤其是森林会产生很大的影响。本论文选择新疆天山东部的伊吾、中部的天池和小渠子、西部的昭苏四个代表性样点，利用BIOME-BGC模型和树木年轮分析方法探讨1961 ~ 2000年间气候变化和大气CO2浓度增高对天山北坡地带性植被天山云杉林（Picea schrenkiana）生长的影响，并利用BIOME-BGC模型预测未来气候变化条件下天山云杉林生产力的可能变化。 利用BIOME-BGC模型模拟了当前气候和CO2浓度条件下四个研究样点净初级生产力（NPP）特征。比较BIOME-BGC模型模拟值与实测NPP、树木年轮指数，结果表明该模型适用于天山北坡天山云杉林的模拟研究。 以BIOME-BGC模型模拟的NPP和树木年轮宽度指数作为生长指标，分析了天山云杉林过去40年的生长特点和趋势。结果表明近40年来天山云杉林生长总体上呈现上升趋势，尤其是自1987年以后，变化幅度更大。天山云杉林的生长对气候变化的反应很敏感，年降水量与当年的NPP呈现显著正相关关系（R=0.774 ~ 0.882，P < 0.001）。年降水量与树木年轮宽度指数也呈现出相似的相关关系，但相关系数相对较小（0.305 ~ 0.544），其中只有昭苏和小渠子样点达到显著水平。在昭苏和伊吾，年平均温度与对应年份的NPP相关关系微弱，相关系数仅分别为0.036和0.159。而天山中部的小渠子和天池年平均温度与对应年份的NPP呈显著负相关关系（相关系数分别为-0.324和-0.322;P <0.05）,这可能是由于温度的升高加剧水分胁迫，导致NPP下降。年平均温度与树木年轮宽度指数的相关关系与NPP的基本一致。同时，年平均温度也表现出比较强的滞后效应,尤其是滞后两年的效应，这可能是由于温度的升高，加速养分循环产生施肥效应，从而间接促进天山云杉林的生长。近40年来，大气CO2浓度的增高对天山云杉林生长具有一定促进作用，NPP升高的幅度为1.85 ~ 4.51%,根据树木年轮估算大气CO2施肥效应β相对比较小,仅为0.133。进一步分析表明大气 CO2浓度主要是通过提高水分利用效率的途径促进天山云杉林生长。 利用RegCM2区域气候模式模拟的大气CO2倍增时（大约2070年）的气候变化情形作为输入参数，应用BIOME-BGC模型预测了在未来气候状况发生改变，而大气CO2浓度没有变化的情况下（C0T1P1），天山云杉林的NPP增长幅度为13.33 ~ 29.11%,其中对东部伊吾NPP的促进作用最大，其次是中部的小渠子和天池，而对西部昭苏NPP的影响最小;结合当前气候条件和大气CO2浓度加倍情形（C1T0P0），模拟结果表明NPP在比较温暖的天山中部和西部将会有所增加，增加幅度为1.17 ~ 8.62%，而在寒冷的东部伊吾，NPP则会下降2.50%, CO2的施肥效应表现出很大的温度依赖性;结合气候变化和大气CO2浓度加倍情形（C1T1P1），模拟结果表明NPP的增加幅度将会上升为26.43 ~ 37.24%，温度、降水和大气CO2浓度对NPP的影响存在较强的交互作用。 研究表明树木年轮真实记录了树木在自然条件下长期的生长特征，是验证生态系统模型比较理想的材料之一。生态系统模型可以从机理上对生态系统的生物物理过程以及影响因子进行分析和模拟。本研究利用生态系统模型与树木年轮方法相结合很好地揭示天山云杉林的生长与全球气候变化之间的相互关系。同时，研究表明未来气候变化有利于天山云杉林的生长，天山云杉林可能会成为一个重要的碳汇而在碳循环研究中倍受关注。

沿水分梯度草原群落NPP动态及对气候变化响应的模拟分析

水分条件不仅影响半干旱区群落的组成，而且在一定程度上决定了群落的功能。处于不同水分条件生境下群落的优势物种在水分利用和同化物利用效率方面的功能特征会存在差异，这些差异将导致群落对于气候变化产生不同的响应，进而影响到景观和区域尺度上对于全球变化下碳动态和格局的分析。本研究选取了锡林河流域典型草原区沿水分梯度的四个代表群落，在野外实验测定并结合长期定位研究成果基础上，利用BIOME-BGC模型对代表群落的长期净初级生产力(NPP)动态进行了模拟和模型验证。通过分析该地区1953~2005年气候变化趋势，推测了未来可能的气候变化情景，进而模拟了气候变化下四个群落长期NPP动态的响应。 野外实验分析表明，在四个群落中，净光合速率与光合有效辐射呈单峰曲线关系，与温度和蒸气压亏损(VPD)成反比，叶片氮含量和比叶面积也会影响到光合能力。四个群落由于水分与土壤条件的差别，净光合速率随VPD与温度的变化表现出不同的增减幅度。将日变化分为四个阶段，分别为大致在6:00~8:00左右的低温高湿阶段，10:00~16:00的高温低湿阶段，16:00以后的低温低湿阶段和低温高湿阶段变为高温低湿阶段过程中的适温适湿阶段。在每个阶段中，影响羊草光合速率的主导因子是不同的。在不同的水分与土壤状况下，羊草的光合特性表现出明显差异，但总体说来水分仍是光合作用的主导因子。 模型模拟结果表明，当前气候条件下，羊草群落NPP平均值为197.76 gC m-2 (SE=7.11)，大针茅群落NPP平均值为198.95 gC m-2 (SE=6.41)，贝加尔针茅群落NPP平均值为210.41 gC m-2 (SE=7.87)，克氏针茅群落NPP平均值为144.92 gC m-2 (SE=4.64)，四个群落NPP平均值为188.01 gC m-2 (SE=3.72)。 日最高温度与最低温度在1953~2005年间都明显增加，而降水变化很大。温度增加下(P0T1)NPP平均下降14.2%，降水增加下(P1T0)NPP平均增加13.2%，温度与降水都增加情景下(P1T1)NPP平均下降2.7%。在半干旱区，降水是NPP变化的主要限制因子，而温度通过影响了植物的呼吸与蒸散作用对NPP产生影响。 由于生境水分条件差别和优势物种功能特征差异，四个群落在气候变化中表现出对温度与降水不同的敏感程度，这与水分胁迫系数WSI、碳胁迫系数CSI变化密切相关。克氏针茅群落由于所处生境水分条件差，水分胁迫系数高，对降水的依赖程度最大;贝加尔针茅群落一方面处于较好的水分生境，具有相对较小的水分胁迫系数，另一方面，由于具有高碳氮比，维持呼吸消耗的光合产物比例低，碳胁迫系数远低于其它三个群落，未来气候变化下NPP较其它三个群落仍较高。

不同类型生态系统水热碳通量的监测与研究

亚太地区环境革新战略项目(APEIS)在中国5种主要生态系统类型区(草地:海北、耕地:禹城、稻田:桃源、林地:千烟洲、荒漠:阜康)建立了一个以连续观测能量、水分和碳素通量为中心,包括气象、水文、土壤、植被等各项生态要素的监测网络系统,被称之为APEIS-FLUX系统.作者首先对APEIS-FLUX系统的观测数据进行了初步分析,表明该系统稳定可靠,它可以实时地提供高质量、高精度、长期而连续的通量及生态要素的观测数据.对数据的比较清楚地反映出了不同生态系统类型区的水热碳通量的差异性.其次,利用APEIS-FLUX数据对美国航空航天局(NASA)的MODIS数据产品进行比较验证后发现,除部分产品如地表面温度(MOD11)等与观测数据较吻合以外,大部分数据产品如土地覆盖(MOD12),叶面积指数(MOD15)和光合速率与净第一性生产力(MOD17)等都与观测数据相差深远,有必要对其处理程序和模式进行修正.为此,我们利用APEIS-FLUX的数据作为MOD15和MOD17的生成模型(BIOME-BGC)的输入数据,并对该模型的有关参数进行了修订.结果表明,该模式在通过修正后,可以很好地模拟植被的生长过程及其相应的水热碳循环过程.

Toward a rule-based biome model

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50 to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated either by competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes or by drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, hence the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken toward development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. ... The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including: explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.

>~（121）C核高自旋态在束γ研究和BGC晶体球性能测定

本文描述了在束γ谱学实验方法，并用这种方法研究了~（121）Cs核的高自旋态能级结构，观测到了~（121）Cs核中基于9/2~+质子空穴态上的△J = 1 的带和基于11/2~-准质子带，并在这两个带上鉴定出了四条新能级及六条新的γ跃迁。对这一结果进行了分析讨论。本文还讨论了一个小型BGO晶体球性能的测试方法，并给出了测试结果

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18000 radiocarbon years

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations.

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO2 changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought-tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO2 concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought-tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low-latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO2 concentration on C3 photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO2 concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO2 concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO2 effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial-interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for China at 0 and 6000 years

Biomization provides an objective and robust method of assigning pollen spectra to biomes so that pollen data can be mapped and compared directly with the output of biomgeographic models. We have tested the applicability of this procedure, originally developed for Europe, to assign modern surface samples from China to biomes. The procedure successfully delineated the major vegetation types of China. When the same procedure was applied to fossil pollen samples for 6000 years ago, the reconstructions showed systematic differences from present, consistent with previous interpretations of vegetation changes since the mid-Holocene. In eastern China, the forest zones were systematically shifted northwards, such that cool mixed forests displaced taiga in northeastern China, while broad-leaved evergreen forest extended c. 300 km and temperate deciduous forestc. 500–600 km beyond their present northern limits. In northwestern China, the area of desert and steppe vegetation was reduced compared to present. On the Tibetan Plateau, forest vegetation extended to higher elevations than today and the area of tundra was reduced. These shifts in biome distributions imply significant changes in climate since 6000 years ago that can be interpreted qualitatively as a response to orbital forcing and its secondary effects on the Asian monsoon.

Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years

This paper reports on a set of paleoclimate simulations for 21, 16, 14, 11 and 6 ka (thousands of years ago) carried out with the Community Climate Model, Version 1 (CCM1) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This climate model uses four interactive components that were not available in our previous simulations with the NCAR CCM0 (COHMAP, 1988Science, 241, 1043–1052; Wright et al., 1993Global Climate Since the Last Glocial Maximum, University of Minnesota Press, MN): soil moisture, snow hydrology, sea-ice, and mixed-layer ocean temperature. The new simulations also use new estimates of ice sheet height and size from ( Peltier 1994, Science, 265, 195–201), and synchronize the astronomically dated orbital forcing with the ice sheet and atmospheric CO2 levels corrected from radiocarbon years to calendar years. The CCM1 simulations agree with the previous simulations in their most general characteristics. The 21 ka climate is cold and dry, in response to the presence of the ice sheets and lowered CO2 levels. The period 14–6 ka has strengthened northern summer monsoons and warm mid-latitude continental interiors in response to orbital changes. Regional differences between the CCM1 and CCM0 simulations can be traced to the effects of either the new interactive model components or the new boundary conditions. CCM1 simulates climate processes more realistically, but has additional degrees of freedom that can allow the model to ‘drift’ toward less realistic solutions in some instances. The CCM1 simulations are expressed in terms of equilibrium vegetation using BIOME 1, and indicate large shifts in biomes. Northern tundra and forest biomes are displaced southward at glacial maximum and subtropical deserts contract in the mid-Holocene when monsoons strengthen. These vegetation changes could, if simulated interactively, introduce additional climate feedbacks. The total area of vegetated land remains nearly constant through time because the exposure of continental shelves with lowered sea level largely compensates for the land covered by the expanded ice sheets.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil

We investigated the seasonal patterns of water vapor and sensible heat flux along a tropical biome gradient from forest to savanna. We analyzed data from a network of flux towers in Brazil that were operated within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These tower sites included tropical humid and semideciduous forest, transitional forest, floodplain (with physiognomies of cerrado), and cerrado sensu stricto. The mean annual sensible heat flux at all sites ranged from 20 to 38 Wm(-2), and was generally reduced in the wet season and increased in the late dry season, coincident with seasonal variations of net radiation and soil moisture. The sites were easily divisible into two functional groups based on the seasonality of evaporation: tropical forest and savanna. At sites with an annual precipitation above 1900 mm and a dry season length less than 4 months (Manaus, Santarem and Rondonia), evaporation rates increased in the dry season, coincident with increased radiation. Evaporation rates were as high as 4.0 mm d(-1) in these evergreen or semidecidous forests. In contrast, ecosystems with precipitation less than 1700 mm and a longer dry season (Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Sao Paulo) showed clear evidence of reduced evaporation in the dry season. Evaporation rates were as low as 2.5 mm d(-1) in the transitional forests and 1 mm d(-1) in the cerrado. The controls on evapotranspiration seasonality changed along the biome gradient, with evaporative demand (especially net radiation) playing a more important role in the wetter forests, and soil moisture playing a more important role in the drier savannah sites.

Habitat use and home range of brown-nosed coati, Nasua nasua (Carnivora: Procyonidae) in the Brazilian Cerrado biome

The brown-nosed coati (Nasua nasua) is a carnivorous species found in all the Brazilian biomes, some of which are endangered areas. The aim of this work was to determine the habitat use and selection, home range and core area of N. nasua in the Cerrado biome, central region of Tocantins, Brazil. The study was carried out in an area of approximately 20 000ha from May 2000 to July 2002. A total of seven box traps were placed in the area for 13 months, three of 11 captured animals were followed and monitored by radio-tracking during 13 months. The monitoring was conducted once a day, three times a week using a car and walking through the study area (radio-tracking and visual contact). The results demonstrate that these three males used more frequently the gallery forest formation, followed by cerrado and wetlands. The use of gallery forest by these animals indicated an habitat selection (Proportion test, z=12.98, p< 0.01). Besides, adult males used the gallery forest more frequently (Fisher's exact test, p<0.01) and wetlands less frequently (Fisher's exact test, p<0.01) than juvenile males, without significant differences between animal ages for cerrado percentage of habitat use. Besides, results also showed a gallery forest selection by adult (Proportion test z= 13.62, p<0.01) and juvenile (Proportion test z=2.68, p<0.01) males, and a wetland selection by the juvenile male (Proportion test z=3.90, p<0.01). The home ranges varied from 2.20 to 7.55km2 for the Minimum Convex Polygon 100% (MCP 100%) and from 4.38 to 13.32km2 for the Harmonic Mean 95% (HM 95%). The smallest home range overlap occurred between the adult males (Nm1 and Nm3), and the greatest between the juvenile Njm2 and the adult Nm1. The average of the core area (HM 75%) for the three monitored animals represented 21.29% of the home range calculated with HM 95%. No overlap between core areas was observed for adult males, but, it was an overlap between the core area of the juvenile male and its band with that of the two adult males. The present study provides new data on core area size and frequency habitat use by adult and juvenile males of N. nasua in the Brazilian Cerrado, that may support conservation efforts. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (3): 1069-1077. Epub 2010 September 01.