Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Contrast transfer function correction applied to cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging

Cryo-electron tomography together with averaging of sub-tomograms containing identical particles can reveal the structure of proteins or protein complexes in their native environment. The resolution of this technique is limited by the contrast transfer function (CTF) of the microscope. The CTF is not routinely corrected in cryo-electron tomography because of difficulties including CTF detection, due to the low signal to noise ratio, and CTF correction, since images are characterised by a spatially variant CTF. Here we simulate the effects of the CTF on the resolution of the final reconstruction, before and after CTF correction, and consider the effect of errors and approximations in defocus determination. We show that errors in defocus determination are well tolerated when correcting a series of tomograms collected at a range of defocus values. We apply methods for determining the CTF parameters in low signal to noise images of tilted specimens, for monitoring defocus changes using observed magnification changes, and for correcting the CTF prior to reconstruction. Using bacteriophage PRDI as a test sample, we demonstrate that this approach gives an improvement in the structure obtained by sub-tomogram averaging from cryo-electron tomograms.

Enhanced sensitivity in detection of Kerr rotation by double modulation and time averaging based on Allan variance

Experiments in spintronics necessarily involve the detection of spin polarization. The sensitivity of this detection becomes an important factor to consider when extending the low temperature studies on semiconductor spintronic devices to room temperature, where the spin signal is weaker. In pump-probe experiments, which optically inject and detect spins, the sensitivity is often improved by using a photoelastic modulator (PEM) for lock-in detection. However, spurious signals can arise if diode lasers are used as optical sources in such experiments, along with a PEM. In this work, we eliminated the spurious electromagnetic coupling of the PEM onto the probe diode laser, by the double modulation technique. We also developed a test for spurious modulated interference in the pump-probe signal, due to the PEM. Besides, an order of magnitude enhancement in the sensitivity of detection of spin polarization by Kerr rotation, to 3x10(-8) rad was obtained by using the concept of Allan variance to optimally average the time series data over a period of 416 s. With these improvements, we are able to experimentally demonstrate at room temperature, photoinduced steady-state spin polarization in bulk GaAs. Thus, the advances reported here facilitate the use of diode lasers with a PEM for sensitive pump-probe experiments. They also constitute a step toward detection of spin-injection in Si at room temperature.

Duality and energy averaging for e+e- annihilation in potential models

Analytical expressions for the corrections to duality are obtained for nonsingular potentials, and are found to be small numerically. An alternative consistent way of energy smoothing, developed by Strutinsky, is elucidated. This may be of use even when potential models are not valid.

Rapid genome wide mapping of phosphine resistance loci by a simple regional averaging analysis in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum

Background Next-generation sequencing technology is an important tool for the rapid, genome-wide identification of genetic variations. However, it is difficult to resolve the ‘signal’ of variations of interest and the ‘noise’ of stochastic sequencing and bioinformatic errors in the large datasets that are generated. We report a simple approach to identify regional linkage to a trait that requires only two pools of DNA to be sequenced from progeny of a defined genetic cross (i.e. bulk segregant analysis) at low coverage (<10×) and without parentage assignment of individual SNPs. The analysis relies on regional averaging of pooled SNP frequencies to rapidly scan polymorphisms across the genome for differential regional homozygosity, which is then displayed graphically. Results Progeny from defined genetic crosses of Tribolium castaneum (F4 and F19) segregating for the phosphine resistance trait were exposed to phosphine to select for the resistance trait while the remainders were left unexposed. Next generation sequencing was then carried out on the genomic DNA from each pool of selected and unselected insects from each generation. The reads were mapped against the annotated T. castaneum genome from NCBI (v3.0) and analysed for SNP variations. Since it is difficult to accurately call individual SNP frequencies when the depth of sequence coverage is low, variant frequencies were averaged across larger regions. Results from regional SNP frequency averaging identified two loci, tc_rph1 on chromosome 8 and tc_rph2 on chromosome 9, which together are responsible for high level resistance. Identification of the two loci was possible with only 5-7× average coverage of the genome per dataset. These loci were subsequently confirmed by direct SNP marker analysis and fine-scale mapping. Individually, homozygosity of tc_rph1 or tc_rph2 results in only weak resistance to phosphine (estimated at up to 1.5-2.5× and 3-5× respectively), whereas in combination they interact synergistically to provide a high-level resistance >200×. The tc_rph2 resistance allele resulted in a significant fitness cost relative to the wild type allele in unselected beetles over eighteen generations. Conclusion We have validated the technique of linkage mapping by low-coverage sequencing of progeny from a simple genetic cross. The approach relied on regional averaging of SNP frequencies and was used to successfully identify candidate gene loci for phosphine resistance in T. castaneum. This is a relatively simple and rapid approach to identifying genomic regions associated with traits in defined genetic crosses that does not require any specialised statistical analysis.

Motional Averaging of Electric Field Gradients. Temperature Dependence of Nqr in Sodium Chlorate and Copper Chlorate

Es wird die Temperaturabhiingigkeit der CI35-Kernquadrupolresonanz in Natriumchlorat und Kupferchlorat im Temperature von 77 bis 300 °K untersucht. Es wird gezeigt, daß die Annahmen, die in der Theorie von Bayer gemacht werden, fur Chlorate gelten. Die Frequenz der Torsionsschwingungen der ClO3-Gruppe wird folglich mit dieser Theorie berechnet. Der berechnete Wert der Torsionsfrequenz stimmt gut mit vorhandenen Werten der Ramanspektroskopie überein.

The averaging principle and the diagram technique

Rae and Davidson have found a striking connection between the averaging method generalised by Kruskal and the diagram technique used by the Brussels school in statistical mechanics. They have considered conservative systems whose evolution is governed by the Liouville equation. In this paper we have considered a class of dissipative systems whose evolution is governed not by the Liouville equation but by the last-multiplier equation of Jacobi whose Fourier transform has been shown to be the Hopf equation. The application of the diagram technique to the interaction representation of the Jacobi equation reveals the presence of two kinds of interactions, namely the transition from one mode to another and the persistence of a mode. The first kind occurs in the treatment of conservative systems while the latter type is unique to dissipative fields and is precisely the one that determines the asymptotic Jacobi equation. The dynamical equations of motion equivalent to this limiting Jacobi equation have been shown to be the same as averaged equations.