A study of the errors of the averaged models in the restricted three-body problem in a short time scale

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Depth Averaged Models for Fast Landslide Propagation: Mathematical, Rheological and Numerical Aspects

This paper presents an overview of depth averaged modelling of fast catastrophic landslides where coupling of solid skeleton and pore fluid (air and water) is important. The first goal is to show how Biot-Zienkiewicz models can be applied to develop depth integrated, coupled models. The second objective of the paper is to consider a link which can be established between rheological and constitutive models. Perzyna´s viscoplasticity can be considered a general framework within which rheological models such as Bingham and cohesive frictional fluids can be derived. Among the several alternative numerical models, we will focus here on SPH which has not been widely applied by engineers to model landslide propagation. We propose an improvement, based on combining Finite Difference meshes associated to SPH nodes to describe pore pressure evolution inside the landslide mass. We devote a Section to analyze the performance of the models, considering three sets of tests and examples which allows to assess the model performance and limitations: (i) Problems having an analytical solution, (ii) Small scale laboratory tests, and (iii) Real cases for which we have had access to reliable information

Pertubação orbital devida a um terceiro corpo com distribuição não uniforme de massa e em órbita elíptica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of the Eccentricity of a Perturbing Third Body on the Orbital Correction Maneuvers of a Spacecraft

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

PT-symmetry management in oligomer systems

We study the effects of management of the PT-symmetric part of the potential within the setting of Schrodinger dimer and trimer oligomer systems. This is done by rapidly modulating in time the gain/loss profile. This gives rise to a number of interesting properties of the system, which are explored at the level of an averaged equation approach. Remarkably, this rapid modulation provides for a controllable expansion of the region of exact PT-symmetry, depending on the strength and frequency of the imposed modulation. The resulting averaged models are analysed theoretically and their exact stationary solutions are translated into time-periodic solutions through the averaging reduction. These are, in turn, compared with the exact periodic solutions of the full non-autonomous PT-symmetry managed problem and very good agreement is found between the two.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Effects of initial height on the steady-state persistence probability of linear growth models

The effects of the initial height on the temporal persistence probability of steady-state height fluctuations in up-down symmetric linear models of surface growth are investigated. We study the (1 + 1)-dimensional Family model and the (1 + 1)-and (2 + 1)-dimensional larger curvature (LC) model. Both the Family and LC models have up-down symmetry, so the positive and negative persistence probabilities in the steady state, averaged over all values of the initial height h(0), are equal to each other. However, these two probabilities are not equal if one considers a fixed nonzero value of h(0). Plots of the positive persistence probability for negative initial height versus time exhibit power-law behavior if the magnitude of the initial height is larger than the interface width at saturation. By symmetry, the negative persistence probability for positive initial height also exhibits the same behavior. The persistence exponent that describes this power-law decay decreases as the magnitude of the initial height is increased. The dependence of the persistence probability on the initial height, the system size, and the discrete sampling time is found to exhibit scaling behavior.

Computationally efficient models for simulation of non-ideal DC-DC converters operating in continuous and discontinuous conduction modes

This paper discusses dynamic modeling of non-isolated DC-DC converters (buck, boost and buck-boost) under continuous and discontinuous modes of operation. Three types of models are presented for each converter, namely, switching model, average model and harmonic model. These models include significant non-idealities of the converters. The switching model gives the instantaneous currents and voltages of the converter. The average model provides the ripple-free currents and voltages, averaged over a switching cycle. The harmonic model gives the peak to peak values of ripple in currents and voltages. The validity of all these models is established by comparing the simulation results with the experimental results from laboratory prototypes, at different steady state and transient conditions. Simulation based on a combination of average and harmonic models is shown to provide all relevant information as obtained from the switching model, while consuming less computation time than the latter.

Three-dimensional models of mantle convection : influence of phase transitions and temperature-dependent viscosity

Two of the most important questions in mantle dynamics are investigated in three separate studies: the influence of phase transitions (studies 1 and 2), and the influence of temperature-dependent viscosity (study 3).

(1) Numerical modeling of mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell incorporating the two major mantle phase transitions reveals an inherently three-dimensional flow pattern characterized by accumulation of cold downwellings above the 670 km discontinuity, and cylindrical 'avalanches' of upper mantle material into the lower mantle. The exothermic phase transition at 400 km depth reduces the degree of layering. A region of strongly-depressed temperature occurs at the base of the mantle. The temperature field is strongly modulated by this partial layering, both locally and in globally-averaged diagnostics. Flow penetration is strongly wavelength-dependent, with easy penetration at long wavelengths but strong inhibition at short wavelengths. The amplitude of the geoid is not significantly affected.

(2) Using a simple criterion for the deflection of an upwelling or downwelling by an endothermic phase transition, the scaling of the critical phase buoyancy parameter with the important lengthscales is obtained. The derived trends match those observed in numerical simulations, i.e., deflection is enhanced by (a) shorter wavelengths, (b) narrower up/downwellings (c) internal heating and (d) narrower phase loops.

(3) A systematic investigation into the effects of temperature-dependent viscosity on mantle convection has been performed in three-dimensional Cartesian geometry, with a factor of 1000-2500 viscosity variation, and Rayleigh numbers of 10^5-10^7. Enormous differences in model behavior are found, depending on the details of rheology, heating mode, compressibility and boundary conditions. Stress-free boundaries, compressibility, and temperature-dependent viscosity all favor long-wavelength flows, even in internally heated cases. However, small cells are obtained with some parameter combinations. Downwelling plumes and upwelling sheets are possible when viscosity is dependent solely on temperature. Viscous dissipation becomes important with temperature-dependent viscosity.

The sensitivity of mantle flow and structure to these various complexities illustrates the importance of performing mantle convection calculations with rheological and thermodynamic properties matching as closely as possible those of the Earth.

Assessment of CFD models for shock boundary-layer interaction

A workshop on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of shock boundary-layer interactions (SBLIs) was held at the 48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting. As part of the workshop numerous CFD analysts submitted solutions to four experimentally measured SBLIs. This paper describes the assessment of the CFD predictions. The assessment includes an uncertainty analysis of the experimental data, the definition of an error metric and the application of that metric to the CFD solutions. The CFD solutions provided very similar levels of error and in general it was difficult to discern clear trends in the data. For the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes methods the choice of turbulence model appeared to be the largest factor in solution accuracy. Large-eddy simulation methods produced error levels similar to RANS methods but provided superior predictions of normal stresses.

A FEniCS-based programming framework for modeling turbulent flow by the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations

Finding an appropriate turbulence model for a given flow case usually calls for extensive experimentation with both models and numerical solution methods. This work presents the design and implementation of a flexible, programmable software framework for assisting with numerical experiments in computational turbulence. The framework targets Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models, discretized by finite element methods. The novel implementation makes use of Python and the FEniCS package, the combination of which leads to compact and reusable code, where model- and solver-specific code resemble closely the mathematical formulation of equations and algorithms. The presented ideas and programming techniques are also applicable to other fields that involve systems of nonlinear partial differential equations. We demonstrate the framework in two applications and investigate the impact of various linearizations on the convergence properties of nonlinear solvers for a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Comparing whole-link travel time models used in DTA

In a model commonly used in dynamic traffic assignment the link travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of the number of vehicles on the link at time t. In an alternative recently introduced model, the travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of an estimate of the flow in the immediate neighbourhood of the vehicle, averaged over the time the vehicle is traversing the link. Here we compare the solutions obtained from these two models when applied to various inflow profiles. We also divide the link into segments, apply each model sequentially to the segments and again compare the results. As the number of segments is increased, the discretisation refined to the continuous limit, the solutions from the two models converge to the same solution, which is the solution of the Lighthill, Whitham, Richards (LWR) model for traffic flow. We illustrate the results for different travel time functions and patterns of inflows to the link. In the numerical examples the solutions from the second of the two models are closer to the limit solutions. We also show that the models converge even when the link segments are not homogeneous, and introduce a correction scheme in the second model to compensate for an approximation error, hence improving the approximation to the LWR model.