Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Rehabilitation outcomes for brain injured patients in Australia: functional status, length of stay and discharge destination

This study describes the rehabilitation length of stay (LOS), discharge destination and discharge functional status of 149 patients admitted with traumatic brain injury (TBI) to an Australian hospital over a 5-year period. Hospital charts of patients admitted between 1993-1998 were reviewed. Average LOS over the 5-year time period was 61.8 days and only decreased nominally over this time. Longer LOS was predicted by lower admission motor FIM scores and presence of comorbidities. Mean admission and discharge motor FIM scores were 58 and 79, which represented a gain of 21 points. Higher discharge motor FIM scores were predicted by higher admission motor FIM scores and younger age. FIM gain was predicted by cognitive status and age. Most patients, 88%, were discharged back to the community, with 30% changing their living setting or situation. Changing living status was predicted by living alone and having poorer functional status on admission.

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Influencing factors on the length of stay in lumbar spine surgery: analysis of the German spine registry

INTRODUCTION Spinal disc herniation, lumbar spinal stenosis and spondylolisthesis are known to be leading causes of lumbar back pain. The cost of low back pain management and related operations are continuously increasing in the healthcare sector. There are many studies regarding complications after spine surgery but little is known about the factors predicting the length of stay in hospital. The purpose of this study was to identify these factors in lumbar spine surgery in order to adapt the postoperative treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS The current study was carried out as a post hoc analysis on the basis of the German spine registry. Patients who underwent lumbar spine surgery by posterior surgical access and with posterior fusion and/or rigid stabilization, whereby procedures with dynamic stabilization were excluded. Patient characteristics were tested for association with length of stay (LOS) using bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS A total of 356 patients met the inclusion criteria. The average age of all patients was 64.6 years and the mean LOS was 11.9 ± 6.0 days with a range of 2-44 days. Independent factors that were influencing LOS were increased age at the time of surgery, higher body mass index, male gender, blood transfusion of 1-2 erythrocyte concentrates and the presence of surgical complications. CONCLUSION Identification of predictive factors for prolonged LOS may allow for estimation of patient hospitalization time and for optimization of postoperative care. In individual cases this may result of a reduction in the LOS.

Walking in hospital is associated with a shorter length of stay in older medical inpatients

Evidence suggests that inactivity during a hospital stay is associated with poor health outcomes in older medical inpatients. We aimed to estimate the associations of average daily step-count (walking) in hospital with physical performance and length of stay in this population. Medical in-patients aged ⩾65 years, premorbidly mobile, with an anticipated length of stay ⩾3 d, were recruited. Measurements included average daily step-count, continuously recorded until discharge, or for a maximum of 7 d (Stepwatch Activity Monitor); co-morbidity (CIRS-G); frailty (SHARE F-I); and baseline and end-of-study physical performance (short physical performance battery). Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between step-count and end-of-study physical performance or length of stay. Length of stay was log transformed in the first model, and step-count was log transformed in both models. Similar models were used to adjust for potential confounders. Data from 154 patients (mean 77 years, SD 7.4) were analysed. The unadjusted models estimated for each unit increase in the natural log of stepcount, the natural log of length of stay decreased by 0.18 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.09). After adjustment of potential confounders, while the strength of the inverse association was attenuated, it remained significant (βlog(steps) = −0.15, 95%CI −0.26 to −0.03). The back-transformed result suggested that a 50% increase in step-count was associated with a 6% shorter length of stay. There was no apparent association between step-count and end-of-study physical performance once baseline physical performance was adjusted for. The results indicate that step-count is independently associated with hospital length of stay, and merits further investigation.

Ischemic heart disease. Hospitalization, length of stay and expenses in Brazil from 1993 to 1997

OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of the hospitalizations due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) made by the Single Health System -- "Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) in Brazil from 1993 to 1997. METHODS: The information used came from records of permissions for hospitalization due to IHD (diseases codified from 410 to 414 by the International Disease Classification -- 9th Revision) furnished by the data bank DATASUS. The material studied was classified according to age, sex and length of hospitalization of the patients, and expenses to the system for IHD. RESULTS: IHD represents 1.0% of total hospitalizations. Angina pectoris was the most frequent type, occurring in 53.3% of the cases, followed by acute myocardial infarct (26.6%). This later was more frequent in men and angina in women . The majority of patients with IHD stayed hospitalized from 5 to 8 days. In the years of 1997 the expenses due to hospital treatment for IHD reach to 0.01% of Brazil's Gross Internal Product. In the studied period (1993-1997), IHD was responsible by 1.0% of hospitalizations, however it was 3.3% of the expenses of SUS. CONCLUSION: IHD is an important cause of hospitalization by the SUS; it has a rather high cost, indicating the need for preventive measures aimed at reducing exposure to risk factors and to decrease the incidence of this group of diseases in the nation.

Does history of falling predict length of stay in post-scute geriatric rehabilitation?

Objectives: To investigate the associations between falls before¦hospital admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in¦elderly people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation.¦Method: History of falling in the previous 12 months before admission¦was recorded among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3 ± 7.4 years,¦69.1% women) consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data¦on medical, functional and cognitive status were collected upon¦admission. Falls during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded¦at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73 (32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was¦significantly associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P = .01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P = .01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more than non¦fallers in single fallers, p = .05, and 3.3 days in multiple fallers, p = .0.1).¦Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to post acute¦geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a longer¦rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers also have an increased risk¦of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that hospital fall¦prevention measures should particularly target these high risk patients.

Prédiction des durées de séjour en réadaptation en fonction du statut fonctionnel. [Usefulness of functional status to predict length of stay in rehabilitation.]

Objectif : En Suisse, la réadaptation est financée en¦partie par l'assureur qui fixe préalablement à l'admission¦un nombre de jours (durée garantie) qu'il s'engage¦à rembourser. Lorsqu'une durée garantie est trop courte,¦une demande de prolongation est nécessaire, induisant¦des démarches administratives. Les objectifs de cette¦étude étaient a) d'étudier le lien entre durées garanties¦et caractéristiques du patient ; b) d'estimer les coûts¦liés aux demandes de prolongation ; c) d'évaluer¦l'impact de l'introduction d'un modèle d'attribution de¦durée garantie basé sur l'état fonctionnel du patient.¦Méthodes : Les corrélations entre état fonctionnel,¦durée effective et durée garantie ont été testées sur¦208 séjours représentatifs. Des durées garanties fictives¦ont été calculées à partir de la médiane de durée de¦séjour de 2 335 patients, groupés selon leur niveau¦fonctionnel (score des activités de base de la vie quotidienne¦(BAVQ) 0-1 vs 2-4 vs 5-6), puis comparées aux¦durées de séjour effectives et garanties.¦Résultats : L'état fonctionnel du patient n'est pas¦corrélé à la durée garantie, et 69 % des séjours nécessitent¦au moins une demande de prolongation, représentant¦2,6 équivalents temps plein en temps administratif¦projeté sur le canton. L'application du modèle proposé¦réduirait de 28 % les demandes de prolongation, et¦n'augmenterait que marginalement la proportion de¦jours garantis en surplus (11,2 % contre 6,5 % actuellement).¦Conclusion : L'utilisation systématique d'un modèle¦d'attribution de durées garanties basées sur l'état¦fonctionnel du patient permettrait de réduire sensiblement¦les coûts administratifs liés aux demandes de¦prolongation, sans entraîner de risque accru d'une augmentation¦de la durée de séjour.

Does history of falling predict length of stay in post-acute geriatric rehabilitation?

Objectives:To investigate the associations between falls before hospital¦admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in elderly¦people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation. Method: History¦of falling in the previous 12 months before admission was recorded¦among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3±7.4 years, 69.1% women)¦consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data on medical,¦functional and cognitive status were collected upon admission. Falls¦during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73(32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was significantly¦associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P=.01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P=.01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more in single fallers,¦p=.05, and 3.3 days more in multiple fallers, p=.0.1, compared to¦non-fallers). Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to¦post acute geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a¦longer rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers have also an¦increased risk of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that¦hospital fall prevention measures should particularly target these high¦riskpatients.

Lien entre durée de séjour et réadmissions en chirurgie et en obstétrique: étude de deux procédures à partir des données du PMSI = Using administrative data to assess the impact of length of stay on readmissions: study of two procedures in surgery and obstetrics

Position du problème: La mise en place de la tarification à l'activité pour les hôpitaux de court séjour pourrait entraîner une diminution des durées de séjour pour raisons financières. L'impact potentiel de ce phénomène sur la qualité des soins n'est pas connu. Les réadmissions identifiées à l'aide des données administratives hospitalières sont, pour certaines situations cliniques, des indicateurs de qualité des soins valides. Méthode: Étude rétrospective du lien entre la durée de séjour et la survenue de réadmissions imprévues liées au séjour initial, pour les cholécystectomies simples et les accouchements par voie basse sans complication, à partir des données du programme de médicalisation des systèmes d'information de l'Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris des années 2002 à 2005. Résultats: Pour les deux procédures, la probabilité de réadmission suit une courbe en " J ". Après ajustement sur l'âge, le sexe, les comorbidités associées, l'hôpital et l'année d'admission, la probabilité de réadmission est plus élevée pour les durées de séjour les plus courtes : pour les cholécystectomies, odds ratio : 6,03 [IC95 % : 2,67-13,59] pour les hospitalisations d'un jour versus trois jours ; pour les accouchements, odds ratio : 1,74 [IC95 % : 1,05-2,91] pour les hospitalisations de deux jours versus trois jours. Conclusion: Pour deux pathologies communes, les durées de séjour les plus courtes sont associées à des probabilités de réadmission plus élevées. L'utilisation routinière des données du programme de médicalisation des systèmes d'information peut permettre d'assurer le suivi de la relation entre la réduction de la durée de séjour et les réadmissions. The prospective payment system for the French short-stay hospitals creates a financial incentive to reduce length of stay. The potential impact of the resulting decrease in length of stay on the quality of healthcare is unknown. Readmission rates are valid outcome indicators for some clinical procedures. Methods: Retrospective study of the association between length of stay and unplanned readmissions related to the initial stay, for two procedures: cholecystectomy and vaginal delivery. Data: Administrative diagnosis-related groups database of "Assistance publique-Hopitaux de Paris", a large teaching hospital, for years 2002 to 2005. Results: The risk of readmission according to length of stay, taking age, sex, comorbidity, hospital and year of admission into account, followed a J-shaped curve for both procedures. The probability of readmission was higher for very short stays, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of 6.03 [2.67-13.59] for cholecystectomies (1- versus 3-night stays), and of 1.74 [1.05-2.91] for vaginal deliveries (2- versus 3-night stays). Conclusion: For both procedures, the shortest lengths of stay are associated with a higher readmission probability. Suitable indicators derived from administrative databases would enable monitoring of the association between length of stay and readmissions.

Early postnatal hospital discharge: the consequences of reducing length of stay for women and newborns

The objective of this study is to examine the literature and identify most salient outcomes of early postnatal discharge for women, newborns and the health system. An electronic search strategy was designed including the following sources: Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest and PubMed/MEDLINE, using the following terms: (early AND discharge) OR (length AND stay) AND (postpartum OR postnatal) AND (effect* OR result OR outcome). Content analysis was used to identify and summarise the findings and methods of the research papers. The evidence available is not enough to either reject or support the practice of early postnatal discharge; different studies have reported different outcomes for women and newborns. The need of systematic clinical research is discussed.

Exploring models for the length of stay distribution.

Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) are frequently used to standardize the comparison of consumption variables, such as length of stay (LOS). In order to be reliable, this comparison must control for the presence of outliers, i.e. values far removed from the pattern set by the majority of the data. Indeed, outliers can distort the usual statistical summaries, such as means and variances. A common practice is to trim LOS values according to various empirical rules, but there is little theoretical support for choosing between alternative procedures. This pilot study explores the possibility of describing LOS distributions with parametric models which provide the necessary framework for the use of robust methods.