Move over Aldi, Lidl may be next for Australian market

If speculation that German discount supermarket, Lidl, is preparing to launch into the Australian market is correct, it will be the biggest shake up in the grocery sector since Aldi’s arrival in 2001. With potentially five viable combatants in the mix, the way we shop and how supermarkets and suppliers compete, will fundamentally change.

The information content of directors' trades: empirical analysis of the Australian market

We examine the trading activities of directors in shares of their own companies on the Australian Stock Exchange during the July-December 2005 period. We find that directors of small companies in particular earn abnormal return after both their 'Purchase' and as well as their 'Sale' trade. Directors of these companies have an uncanny ability to time the market by trading when mispricing is greatest, and are able to predict the future performance of their firms in short run. For directors of medium and large companies, we find evidence that 'Sale' trades are the ones which work as loss avoiders. Outsiders recognise to some extent that directors' trades are informative, however they are slow to incorporate the new information into prices, refuting much of the market efficiency literature.

Response rates in Australian market research

RICA commissioned Deakin University to “establish whether response rates are in decline in the Australian market research industry and to identify, as far as possible, the reasons for these declines if they exist. This is likely to involve a review of previous research, a literature review and collection of data on response rates provided on a confidential basis and with the assistance of AMSRO to facilitate data provision.”

Attempts were made to contact all listed market research companies in Australia, including all major internet panel companies. While industry co-operation was not high with the study, sufficient data was provided to depict current response rates and to show how they had declined over time. Because of the low contactability issues, this Report proposes the use of better methods to compute the reliability of survey estimates by taking account of past survey results.

The literature review revealed a wealth of recent studies, with the main emphasis being on studies of telephone and internet surveys. This review of the research produced 34 evidence-based guidelines for social researchers. While some of these reflect current practice, the emergence of the internet as the main survey method raises a number of disclosure and sampling issues. Esomar (2012) has produced 28 issues to be raised with providers, which sets the basis for good industry practice. This suggests an opportunity for the industry to adopt these standards as its own and to conduct training courses for major clients and suppliers. There are many panel providers, some of whom are not AMSRO members. AMSRO may need to examine what role it can play in mandating or encouraging adherence to these standards as a way of promoting the industry.

Talks with key industry people, as well as the literature, have revealed the importance of blended surveys, where multiple contact and response mechanisms are used. Particularly where an internet panel is used as one source, this poses representativeness and weighting issues which are difficult to resolve. The Report recommends that where blended survey methods are used, measures be taken to measure contactability in the other contact media, along with more sophisticated weighting schemes. The industry should examine its training courses to ensure that industry expertise keeps pace with these developments.
Summary of Results

The results focus on two main collection methods – the telephone and the internet. As far as the telephone is concerned response rates have been in a gradual decline the last decade. This outcome is hard to detect because the data show considerable fluctuations from one survey wave to the next. Among cold-calling surveys, telephone response rates are typically below 10%, for a range of topics and survey types. Co-operation rates, (the ratio of obtained interviews to refusals) are typically below 0.2 (that is below one interview to five refusals). Telephone interviews with clients have a higher response rate – typically above 20% with co-operation rates above 1.0. It would appear that some topics, such as financial services, may induce a lower level of co-operation. Government sponsored surveys have higher response rates, at times over 50%, but even here a sharp decline in response rates over time for one long running monitor was observed. Co-operation rates were also higher in government sponsored surveys.

One long data series from a telephone omnibus suggested that the “Do Not Call Register” which began in May, 2007 had some positive effects for the industry. Initially there was a spike in both response rates and co-operation. Although this was relatively short-lived, response rates thereafter declined more slowly and co-operation rates were somewhat higher and remained stable. These conclusions should be regarded as tentative as more data series would really be necessary to see if similar trends occurred elsewhere.

As far as the internet is concerned, panel response rates are around the 20% mark and appear to be relatively stable over the last few years. In this case, the gross response rate is the number of interviews divided by the number of invitations sent. As the number of invitations may be a function of the need to fill a survey quickly, it should be considered a gross indicator of response. In order to capture this phenomenon, a further measure has been devised, termed the “attempt rate” which measures the percentage of people who attempt to participate once sent the invitation. The available data suggests that it is relatively stable. However, it is also somewhat susceptible to the time the survey was left open. Finally, a co-operation rate was also calculated. It measures the ratio of completed to terminated interviews, typically at least five interviews to each termination, but often much higher. This measure is not directly comparable with the co-operation rate in telephone surveys because it cannot take account of the number of eligible people on the panel who open the invitation, see the company doing the survey or its length and decide not to take the survey. For internet client studies, response rates were typically somewhat higher than shown for the panels, but there was marked variability.

There was only one study provided of intercept interviews. It showed response rates of over 60% and co-operation rates of nearly 2 interviews per refusal. A strength and a weakness of intercept interviewing is the ability to be selective in who is asked to participate. As for mail, one government sponsored mail survey from 2010 is reported, with a response rate over 50%. The previous review contains more data, as mail appears to be infrequently used within the industry for commercial surveys.

While surveys remain a major and highly effective tool for the industry and its clients, issues with contactability and co-operation mean that even closer attention is needed to survey design, sampling, weighting and analysis than was previously the case.

Predicting future earnings growth: a test of the dividend payout ratio in the Australian market

This paper examines the use of the payout ratio as a predictor of a firm’s future earnings growth. Recent evidence rejects the hypothesis that firm which retain a large portion of their earnings have strong future earnings growth. Higher dividend payout ratios instead correspond to higher future earnings growth. Examining both listed and delisted firms on the Australian stock exchange over the period 1989 to 2008, we provide further evidence that the dividend payout ratio is positively linked to future earnings growth. The results hold over both one, three and five year periods. Furthermore, our results rejected claims that such a relationship was caused by simple mean reversion in earnings. We find no evidence to support the cash flow signaling and free cash flow hypotheses as an explanation for this relationship.

Stock market liquidity and firm value : an empirical examination of the Australian market

We document a positive relation between stock liquidity and firm value. We examine the mechanism through which stock market liquidity enhances firm value by dividing firm value, as measured by Tobin’s Q, into three components, namely, operating income to price, leverage, and operating income to assets. Using the switch to broker anonymity as an exogenous shock to market liquidity, we show that the increase in liquidity around the shock leads to an increase in firm value. Our results suggest that higher firm value for more liquid stocks seems to stem from enhanced stock prices rather than from better operating performance.

Short-run performance of recent Australian on-market share buy-back announcements

Share buy-backs (or share repurchases) have become increasingly popular among Australian companies during the recent times. One of the aims of share buy-back is to increase the shareholders' wealth by increasing the market price of company shares. While there are several ways of buying backs shares, on-market buy-backs is the most popular method of share repurchase in Australia. Australian listed companies have announced more than two hundred on-market share buy-backs over the past three years. The aim of this paper is to examine the short-run market performance of these recent on-market buy-back announcements.

Short-term effect of on-market buy-back announcements on the share price is an issue, which is theoretically interesting and practically important. Buy-back announcements are believed to convey a signal to the market (i.e., signalling effect). If the market considers this signal positively, the short-run price of the shares would increase. If the signal were considered negatively, the short-run price of shares would decrease. If there is no signalling content or the signal is neutral the price would remain the same. In this study, signalling effect of share buy-back announcements is empirically examined using most recent Australian data. The total population of on-market buy-back announcements that have been lodged with Australian Stock Exchange by Australian listed companies during the period from 1 January 2000 to 10 March 2003 are included in this study. The abnormal market return over the short-run (announcement day and 10 trading days centred on the announcement date) is examined using the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index as the reference portfolio. The daily abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the event period are computed. The results indicate that the Australian market generally positively reacts to on-market buy-back announcements.

The volume and volatility relation in the Australian stock market

The thesis studies the volume-volatility relation in the Australian Securities Market. It is concluded that the number of trades is the most important variable driving realized volatility. The average trade size is significant but its explanatory power is only trivial. Order imbalance does not drive volatility in the Australian market.

Environmental reporting in the Australian mining industry : complying with regulation or meeting international best practice?

It is nearly 10 years since the introduction of s 299(1)(f) Corporations Act , which requires the disclosure of information regarding a company's environmental performance within its annual report. This provision has generated considerable debate in the years since its introduction, fundamentally between proponents of either a voluntary or mandatory environmental reporting framework. This study examines the adequacy of the current regulatory framework. The environmental reporting practices of 24 listed companies in the resources industries are assessed relative to a standard set by the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) Sustainability Reporting Guidelines. These Guidelines are argued to represent "international best practice" in environmental reporting and a "scorecard" approach is used to score the quality of disclosure according to this voluntary benchmark. Larger companies in the sample tend to report environmental information over and above the level required by legislation. Some, but not all companies present a stand-alone environmental/sustainability report. However, smaller companies provide minimal information in compliance with s 299(1)(f) . The findings indicate that "international best practice" environmental reporting is unlikely to be achieved by Australian companies under the current regulatory framework. In the current regulatory environment that scrutinises s 299(1)(f) , this article provides some preliminary evidence of the quality of disclosures generated in the Australian market.

Does fundamental indexation lead to better risk-adjusted returns? New evidence from Australian Securities Exchange

We investigate the claims of superiority of fundamental indexation strategy over capitalisation-weighted indexation by using data for Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listed stocks. Whilst our results are in line with the outperformance observed in other geographical markets, we find that the excess returns from fundamental indexation in Australian market are much higher. On a rolling 5-year basis, the fundamental index always outperforms the capitalisation-weighted index. Our results suggest that superior performance of fundamental indexation could not be entirely attributed to value, size, or momentum effects. The outperformance persists even after adjusting for slightly higher transaction costs related to turnover.

Investigating attitudes towards three South American destinations in an emerging long haul market using a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE)

Despite the importance of destination image in market competitiveness, and the popularity of the field within tourism literature, there remains a dearth of published research examining travellers’ perceptions of destinations in South America. This manuscript addresses this gap by testing a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) associated with three South American countries; Chile, Brazil and Argentina. The introduction of direct air links and a free trade agreement in 2008 has led destination marketing organisations (DMOs) in these countries to increase promotional efforts in the Australian market. This study shows that the CBBE model is an appropriate tool to explore consumers’ attitudes in the long haul travel context. The findings provide DMOs of the three countries studied, with benchmarks against which to compare the impact of future marketing communications in Australia. The results provide increased transparency and accountability to stakeholders, such as South American tourism businesses and Australian travel intermediaries.

The Australian rise of esomeprazole - was expenditure on samples a contributor?

Background Administrative data from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) showed rapid growth of esomeprazole dispensing when it was launched. Australia has universal prescription medicine coverage (the PBS), which included esomeprazole from August 2002. Free samples of new medicines are commonly provided to doctors. Objectives To determine if a relationship exists between marketing expenditure on samples and the dispensing rate for esomeprazole in Australia between June 2002 and September 2006. Methods Quarterly sample expenditures at product/brand level for proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) for Australian general practitioners were obtained for July 2002 to September 2006. Corresponding PBS dispensing data were obtained for all PPIs and converted to defined daily dose (DDD)/1000 population/day. Spending on samples was calculated as dollars per dispensed prescription and plotted against time on the Australian market. Results: Total PPI usage increased from 34.2 to 50.8 DDD/1000 population/ day over the study period. Expenditure on samples per dispensed prescription was higher when a PPI was new on the market and diminished over 5-6 years to a relatively constant level. The rapid decline in this ratio was demonstrated by a case study following esomeprazole from launch in Australia for almost 5 years clearly demonstrating the initial investment to drive sales. Conclusion A relationship appears to exist between expenditure on esomeprazole samples and its usage in Australia. A high initial investment was followed by a rapid reduction in cost per prescription dispensed, predominantly due to growth in market share. This trend was consistent with other PPIs

Profiling the nature and context of the Australian prefabricated housing industry

The current state of the prefabricated housing market in Australia is systematically profiled, guided by a theoretical systems model. Particular focus is given to two original data collections. The first identifies manufacturers and builders using prefabrication innovations, and the second compares the context for prefabricated housing in Australia with that of key international jurisdictions. The results indicate a small but growing market for prefabricated housing in Australia, often building upon expertise developed through non-residential building applications. The international comparison highlighted the complexity of the interactions between macro policy decisions and historical influences and the uptake of prefabricated housing. The data suggest factors such as the small scale of the Australian market, and a lack of investment in research, development and training have not encouraged prefabrication. A lack of clear regulatory policy surrounding prefabricated housing is common both in Australia and internationally, with local effects in regards to home warranties and housing finance highlighted. Future research should target the continuing lack of consideration of prefabrication from within the housing construction industry, and build upon the research reported in this paper to further quantify the potential end user market and the continuing development of the industry.